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Topic:  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic

Topic:  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
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M.D.W.S.T
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/6/2023 4:17:30 PM 
Victory wrote:

I would guess that after week 0 the difference between Rourke and no Rourke is probably a touchdown or even a little more.

You're being too nice.

It's been a while, so I forgive you for not remembering just how good Rourke is.

In non-P5 games this season + last:

Rourke (9): 39 PPG

CJ (5): 23 PPG

If you take away CJ's first game vs BG where he rushed for 3 TD - OU has averaged just 19 points a game. Nearly a THREE TD swing when Rourke is on the field.
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Turney13
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/6/2023 5:38:45 PM 
With Rourke we beat San Diego State by 20.

Turney Duff
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/6/2023 6:03:50 PM 
It is pretty rare for one player to be worth a touchdown over his backup. When you have a potential NFL QB at a mid-major college then, yes, it is going to possibly be true. Last weeks output is a concern but the defenses CJ has faced are on average pretty good and most of us saw him as a capable backup until SDSU. I honestly think last week was just played conservatively. We were 12 of 15 passing for the whole game. Note that as the odds of Kurtis playing changes over the past three games, and also the Bowling Green game last year, the spread moves a point or two. If he were worth three touchdowns over Harris or Navarro any small tidbit on how he is doing would result it a dramatic move. I think going into Toledo last year it was seen as about a 6 or 7 point difference. We would not have been favored by much at all with Kurtis against Toledo. We would have been an underdog to them most of the year. How were we only a 3.5 point underdog with CJ if Rourke is seen as worth that much? I think after some not so great looking offensive outings this year by what SHOULD be one of the best G5 offenses that it is probably seen as 8 or 9 point difference. I totally standby what I said. It MIGHT be just a little more than that. Maybe. It isn't seen as 3 TDs by the oddsmakers and smart money. I can promise you that.

Last Edited: 9/6/2023 8:13:50 PM by Victory
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/6/2023 7:52:49 PM 
ESPN uses a QBR rating, which includes more than just passing stats. It also factors in rushing yards, sacks, and penalties, and also adjust the rating from a "raw" number to adjust for the level of competition. As comparison data, Nathan Rourke rated 73.5, 77.6, and 75.3 from 2017-2019. Last year, Kurtis was rated 73.6, best in the MAC, and about the same as Nathan, but with more points from passing, and less points from rushing. I don't have data for Harris or Navarro for 2022.

Here is the data thus far for 2023:
Kurtis rated 71.9 against SDSU, which would be #1 in the MAC, about like last year
CJ Harris has a QBR so far of 51.5, which ranks him 5th in the MAC
CJ Harris was only 39.8 against SDSU, which would be 9th in the MAC
Parker Navarro has a QBR rating of 85.1, which would rank him #1 in the MAC

Harris clearly had a rough start against SDSU. He played much better against LIU. Navarro also played very well against LIU. While Kurtis is a potential NFL player, both Harris and Navarro appear to be at least average or better MAC level quarterbacks. I hope the coaches continue to find time for both of them to gain experience, so they can continue to improve, just in case something happens to Kurtis.

Last Edited: 9/6/2023 7:55:21 PM by L.C.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/6/2023 8:06:13 PM 
L.C. wrote:
ESPN uses a QBR rating, which includes more than just passing stats. It also factors in rushing yards, sacks, and penalties, and also adjust the rating from a "raw" number to adjust for the level of competition. As comparison data, Nathan Rourke rated 73.5, 77.6, and 75.3 from 2017-2019. Last year, Kurtis was rated 73.6, best in the MAC, and about the same as Nathan, but with more points from passing, and less points from rushing. I don't have data for Harris or Navarro for 2022.

Here is the data thus far for 2023:
Kurtis rated 71.9 against SDSU, which would be #1 in the MAC, about like last year
CJ Harris has a QBR so far of 51.5, which ranks him 5th in the MAC
CJ Harris was only 39.8 against SDSU, which would be 9th in the MAC
Parker Navarro has a QBR rating of 85.1, which would rank him #1 in the MAC

Harris clearly had a rough start against SDSU. He played much better against LIU. Navarro also played very well against LIU. While Kurtis is a potential NFL player, both Harris and Navarro appear to be at least average or better MAC level quarterbacks. I hope the coaches continue to find time for both of them to gain experience, so they can continue to improve, just in case something happens to Kurtis.



Even if Harris and Narraro were the worst backups in the MAC that still is almost certainly not 3 TDs difference. We are pretty lucky that they both stayed. I was a little surprised by that.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/7/2023 8:41:26 AM 
Victory wrote:
Even if Harris and Narraro were the worst backups in the MAC that still is almost certainly not 3 TDs difference. We are pretty lucky that they both stayed. I was a little surprised by that.

I agree with you, but I'm not all that surprised that all three QBs stayed. CJ got a lot of playing time at the end of the year, and appears to have a solid future. Meanwhile, Navarro was hurt for most of the year, and really didn't get a chance to show what he could do, plus him not being healthy yet, so I don't know how much interest he would have gotten.

Now, next year the situation may be very different. It wouldn't surprise me at all if not all three QBs return, but hopefully at least two will.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Bobcat1998
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/7/2023 9:54:01 AM 
Turney13 wrote:
With Rourke we beat San Diego State by 20.


This up here all day. We settled for a field goal on the first drive but we were raring to go after that and would have won 28-10 or better.
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Campus Flow
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/7/2023 10:16:22 AM 
2-2 in non-conference is enough to set up a good season in the MAC. Didn't get SDSU so the Cats need this one more.

Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

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M.D.W.S.T
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/7/2023 10:29:24 AM 
Victory wrote:


Even if Harris and Narraro were the worst backups in the MAC that still is almost certainly not 3 TDs difference.


But when you take away the rushing TD from one game... it *is*... LOL

Rourke = 39
CJ = 19

These are facts. Which part are you having trouble with?

I can't speak on hypotheticals and feelings, I can only present reality. When you return, let's discuss.
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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/7/2023 10:43:50 AM 
Bobcat1998 wrote:
Turney13 wrote:
With Rourke we beat San Diego State by 20.


This up here all day. We settled for a field goal on the first drive but we were raring to go after that and would have won 28-10 or better.


On that first FG didn't the usually reliable Wiglusz drop a TD pass in the end zone on the previous play, on 3rd down. That's what I think I remember.

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/7/2023 2:18:47 PM 
M.D.W.S.T wrote:
Victory wrote:


Even if Harris and Narraro were the worst backups in the MAC that still is almost certainly not 3 TDs difference.


But when you take away the rushing TD from one game... it *is*... LOL

Rourke = 39
CJ = 19

These are facts. Which part are you having trouble with?

I can't speak on hypotheticals and feelings, I can only present reality. When you return, let's discuss.


I'm not having trouble with that as a factual statement by itself. My statement is, and I am 100% certain that it is true even though I obviously can't prove it is that the Vegas line, which is what I have always been referring to, won't move by 20 points on a game if Kurtis goes down. It won't. It won't be anywhere close to that. Do you really think that we would have been a 17 point favorite against Toledo if Kurtis was 100%? Yes, I think do we would have been favored by a very small number with Kurtis at 100% as long as Finn was though of as less than 100% which he wasn't expected to be 100% going into that game. If both QBs were known to be 100% it would have been pretty even.

In the end what you have is a small data set. It is also done against different opponents and different gameplans on how long we try to possess the ball each drive. The oddmakers and smart money that drives a line isn't going to be persuaded on 3 TDs by an argument like you are making standing by itself. I don't know what else to say
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MonroeClassmate
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/7/2023 10:07:23 PM 
OhioCatFan wrote:
Bobcat1998 wrote:
Turney13 wrote:
With Rourke we beat San Diego State by 20.


This up here all day. We settled for a field goal on the first drive but we were raring to go after that and would have won 28-10 or better.


On that first FG didn't the usually reliable Wiglusz drop a TD pass in the end zone on the previous play, on 3rd down. That's what I think I remember.


Clearly an off pass by Rourke and no drop by Wigz. A simple quick slant thrown behind the receiver allowing the DB to make a play on the ball to break it up. Thrown 18" or more to the right and its a TD.
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ytownbobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/8/2023 9:19:05 AM 
Casey Thompson , the FAU QB, and our Kurtis Rourke may put on quite a show in Boca on Saturday evening. I think it comes down to our defense being able to keep us in this game.
At the minimum it presents an opportunity for our offense to get on the field and execute with all or most of our players.
I am going to personally take this one in down at Boca Saturday. Expecting a great effort and perhaps a great outcome.
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spongeBOB CATpants
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/8/2023 9:50:40 AM 
I'd be lying if I said I'm not concerned about this game. I think we will need to score a lot of points and Rourke really hasn't gotten a chance to shake off any rust. Not saying he's not capable of playing well but we haven't seen him put up big numbers yet and we may need to put up 40 points.

I agree with Vegas in that this has a high probability of becoming a shootout. Point total is at 62.5 right now. This game comes down to our performance on offense rather than relying on the defense to hold them down.
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colobobcat66
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/8/2023 10:18:27 AM 
spongeBOB CATpants wrote:
I'd be lying if I said I'm not concerned about this game. I think we will need to score a lot of points and Rourke really hasn't gotten a chance to shake off any rust. Not saying he's not capable of playing well but we haven't seen him put up big numbers yet and we may need to put up 40 points.

I agree with Vegas in that this has a high probability of becoming a shootout. Point total is at 62.5 right now. This game comes down to our performance on offense rather than relying on the defense to hold them down.


My thoughts exactly . If we hold them under 38, I’ll donate $250 to the Bobcat Club.
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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/8/2023 10:37:33 AM 
spongeBOB CATpants wrote:
. . .I agree with Vegas in that this has a high probability of becoming a shootout. Point total is at 62.5 right now. . . .


It may well be a shootout, but I can remember many times when the pundits made predictions like this and we ended up with a 6-3 defensive contest with only FGs scored.

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Cbus Convo
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/8/2023 2:26:33 PM 
spongeBOB CATpants wrote:
I'd be lying if I said I'm not concerned about this game. I think we will need to score a lot of points and Rourke really hasn't gotten a chance to shake off any rust. Not saying he's not capable of playing well but we haven't seen him put up big numbers yet and we may need to put up 40 points.

I agree with Vegas in that this has a high probability of becoming a shootout. Point total is at 62.5 right now. This game comes down to our performance on offense rather than relying on the defense to hold them down.


He completed 8 passes in 10 attempts. I don’t think rust will be an issue.
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M.D.W.S.T
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/8/2023 2:41:50 PM 
spongeBOB CATpants wrote:
I'd be lying if I said I'm not concerned about this game. I think we will need to score a lot of points and Rourke really hasn't gotten a chance to shake off any rust. Not saying he's not capable of playing well but we haven't seen him put up big numbers yet and we may need to put up 40 points.

I agree with Vegas in that this has a high probability of becoming a shootout. Point total is at 62.5 right now. This game comes down to our performance on offense rather than relying on the defense to hold them down.


62.5 because FAU might score 50 if we have to go with CJ and we're... Wiglusz.










Get it? Wig-less.



Bye.
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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/8/2023 5:20:19 PM 
Expect cramping issues tomorrow. High of 91 but still in the upper 80s with south FL humidity at game time. Stay hydrated, guys, and maybe get some salt pills from Michael Reghi. (A Reghi geezer moment from last week's game.) Little chance of rain but it is FL so there's always a chance of a pop-up that cause a lightning delay.

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.
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71 BOBCAT
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/9/2023 9:53:25 AM 
FAU Message board is very concerned about their defense.






GO BOBCATS
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Ted Thompson
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/9/2023 10:45:16 AM 

Follow Ohio Football recruiting on the BobcatAttack.com football recruiting database.

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Ted Thompson
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/9/2023 10:47:09 AM 

 

Follow Ohio Football recruiting on the BobcatAttack.com football recruiting database.

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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/9/2023 10:53:18 AM 
Pataskala wrote:
Expect cramping issues tomorrow. High of 91 but still in the upper 80s with south FL humidity at game time. Stay hydrated, guys, and maybe get some salt pills from Michael Reghi. (A Reghi geezer moment from last week's game.) Little chance of rain but it is FL so there's always a chance of a pop-up that cause a lightning delay.


Salt pills are actually making a comeback in some athletic circles. Being a geezer myself, I can remember when the Peden locker rooms had salt pill dispensers. I ran track for AHS, and we used Peden for our practices.

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

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rpbobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/9/2023 1:57:08 PM 
OhioCatFan wrote:


Salt pills are actually making a comeback in some athletic circles. Being a geezer myself, I can remember when the Peden locker rooms had salt pill dispensers. I ran track for AHS, and we used Peden for our practices.


When I was playing soccer at O.U. we had a salt pill dispenser in our locker
room.

What we didn't have was a Lemonade machine.
Only the football got those.

Last Edited: 9/9/2023 1:58:09 PM by rpbobcat
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Rufusbobcat94
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 3 Thread: Florida Atlantic
   Posted: 9/9/2023 4:51:27 PM 
Really looking forward to watching this one but I wonder if it will be delayed for a bit due to the weather? Maybe Russ will have an update in a little bit when the pregame starts? Looks like rain/possible thunderstorm right around game time.
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