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Topic: RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Topic: RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

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GraffZ06
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Member Since: 1/5/2005
Location: Dayton, OH
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/3/2024 11:35:20 AM

FearLeon wrote:

Bottom line you still have to win three games in three days and you know that path is going to go through Toledo and Akron regardless.

For sure. But in reality its not Toledo or Akron that I'm worried about. We're going to get one or the other once we reach the semis regardless. Gotta beat the best to earn the championship.

It's BG I want to avoid.

They beat us handily up there and we barely squeaked one out at home. Their size is a matchup nightmare for us.

If our season ends in the semis or finals to Akron or Toledo I'd still characterize it as a success given what this team is this year.

A first round loss would be tough to swallow.

Bobcat Jerry
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Member Since: 5/3/2017
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/3/2024 2:13:51 PM

Gotta make a lot of 3's to advance in the MAC tournament. (That will increase offensive rebounding and high percentage layups) . Piece of Cake !

Last Edited: 3/3/2024 2:14:42 PM by Bobcat Jerry

FearLeon
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/3/2024 2:46:44 PM

GraffZ06 wrote:

FearLeon wrote:

Bottom line you still have to win three games in three days and you know that path is going to go through Toledo and Akron regardless.

If our season ends in the semis or finals to Akron or Toledo I'd still characterize it as a success given what this team is this year.

A first round loss would be tough to swallow.

This sums up exactly where I am where success falls with this team this season. Making the semis with basically 5 1/2 players and best player on the team out for season and no portal big providing minutes would be an accomplishment.

#BleedGreen #TrentIsGOAT

shabamon
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Member Since: 11/17/2006
Location: Cincinnati
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/4/2024 8:14:31 AM

According to a guy on Ball's board, here is everything that MUST happen for the Cardinals to get in:

BSU over Kent
BSU over BG
WMU over BG
Miami over Toledo
Kent over Toledo
CMU over Northern
CMU over Eastern

The thinking is they need to get into a tiebreaker with BG, with whom they split the season series. Then they need CMU to pass Toledo in the standings so Ball State's win over CMU is better than BG's win over Toledo.

GoCats105
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Member Since: 1/31/2006
Location: Seattle, WA
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/4/2024 10:31:29 AM

In case anyone was wondering, Kent State hasn't been seeded this low in a long, long time. In fact only one other time since 2000 have they been seeded lower than 6th: in 2014 as the #9 seed they were promptly outed in the first round. But they're still prickly even with a low seed sometimes:

2018: #5 seed made it to the Semifinals
2017: #6 seed made it to the Final (lost by 5 to Akron)

I don't know if this Kent State is capable of making that kind of run, but it will be interesting to see who they draw in the first round in Cleveland.

SBH
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/4/2024 10:36:46 AM

They're not going to beat anybody without Payton.

shabamon
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Location: Cincinnati
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/5/2024 6:50:18 PM

shabamon wrote:

Here's an update I think is right.

The winner of BG/WMU tonight clinches a spot

For Ball State to get in they need:
-Win out
-CMU win out
-Loser of BG/WMU to lose out. Side note that BG and Ball State play on Friday
--If that team is BG, Toledo also lose out
--If that team is WMU, Ohio also lose out

shabamon
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Location: Cincinnati
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/5/2024 9:10:24 PM

Despite Ball State winning, I think our win knocks out the Cardinals as they cannot win a tiebreaker scenario with WMU, who lost to BG. Our field is set, but I think we are the only team locked to a certain seed.

FearLeon
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/5/2024 9:20:36 PM

If we beat Miami and Akron loses at Western Michigan�how is tie-breaker decided for 2nd between Ohio and Akron?

#BleedGreen #TrentIsGOAT

shabamon
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Location: Cincinnati
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/5/2024 9:33:19 PM

FearLeon wrote:

If we beat Miami and Akron loses at Western Michigan�how is tie-breaker decided for 2nd between Ohio and Akron?

Record vs top ranked team in the league. Akron has a win over toledo. We do not.

FearLeon
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/5/2024 9:59:25 PM

Thanks

#BleedGreen #TrentIsGOAT

Bobcat110
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/6/2024 9:24:37 AM

shabamon wrote:

Looks like CMU is locked in to the 4 seed.

M.D.W.S.T
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/6/2024 11:23:58 AM

shabamon wrote:

FearLeon wrote:

If we beat Miami and Akron loses at Western Michigan�how is tie-breaker decided for 2nd between Ohio and Akron?

Record vs top ranked team in the league. Akron has a win over toledo. We do not.

Crazy. THAT close to MAC Championship when everyone thought this was the worst season ever just a few weeks ago.

Makes some of those early losses tough to swallow.

GraffZ06
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Location: Dayton, OH
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/6/2024 6:35:43 PM

Toledo is actually now in the driver seat for the #1 seed since they win tie-breaker with Akron. They split against each other. Toledo swept us and Akron split with us as the #3 seed.

Toledo has 3/4 (75%) chance at #1 seed. Toledo #1 with a win OR Akron loss.
Akron only 1/4 (25%) chance. They have to win AND Toledo loses to Kent.

GraffZ06
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/6/2024 7:04:46 PM

*Edited and re-done after I realized I screwed up (this happens when you get interrupted 8 times trying to compose a post - c'est la vie) - anyway, corrected odds and scenarios below.

While we're locked into the #3 seed our opponent can be:

Miami (37.5% chance)
BG (25.0% chance)
WMU (18.75% chance)
Kent (18.75% chance)

We get Miami if the following win:
Ohio / Akron / BG
(OR)
Ohio / Akron / Ball St / Toledo
(OR)
Miami / WMU / BG
(OR)
Miami / Akron / BG / Toledo

We get BG if:
Ohio / WMU / Ball St / Kent St
(OR)
Miami / Akron / Ball St / Toledo
(OR)
Miami / Akron / BG / Kent St
(OR)
Miami / WMU / Ball St / Toledo

We get Kent if:
Akron / Ball St / Kent St
(OR)
Miami / WMU / Ball St / Kent St

We get WMU if:
Ohio / WMU / BG
(OR)
Ohio / WMU / Ball St / Toledo

Last Edited: 3/7/2024 12:54:07 AM by GraffZ06

GraffZ06
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Member Since: 1/5/2005
Location: Dayton, OH
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/7/2024 1:37:35 AM

Factoring in Torvik's % chance to win each game Friday (Ohio 53%, BG 68%, Toledo 73% and Akron 78%) yields the following probabilities of opponents for us:

Miami - 63.00%
BG - 18.72%
WMU - 10.65%
Kent - 7.63%

If we win, the percentages change to:
Miami - 71.26%
WMU - 20.10%
Kent - 6.74%
BG - 1.90%

If we lose, the percentages become:
Miami - 53.68%
BG - 37.68%
Kent - 8.64%
WMU - 0.00%

Moral of the story is odds are (>90%) we win - we play Miami or WMU, we lose - we play Miami or BG.

shabamon
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Location: Cincinnati
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/7/2024 8:39:57 AM

I guess I'm wrong on Ball State's scenario. Apparently they are still alive?? What I read wrong is the 3+ team tiebreaker. Their one shot in is if they get into a three team tie with WMU and Kent. That would require Ball State to beat BG, WMU to lose to Akron, and Kent to lose to Toledo. The tiebreaker puts the three in order and then that's that. What I thought it did was determine who is the best in the group (Kent), pull that team away from the group, and then determine BSU and WMU based on a two-team tiebreaker (WMU would win such a scenario). A three team tiebreaker would put Kent at the 7, BSU at the 8, and WMU out.

GraffZ06
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/8/2024 8:31:56 PM

WMU knocks off Akron.

Updated scenarios:
Ohio & BG win (OR) Ohio/Ball/Toledo: we get WMU (48.4%)

Miami/BG: we get Miami (32%)

Ohio/Ball/Kent (OR) Miami/Ball/Toledo: we get BG (15.6%)

Miami/Ball/Kent: we get Kent (4.1%)

Win we get WMU or BG.
Lose we get Miami or Kent.

bobcatsquared
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/8/2024 9:00:12 PM

Who's reeling more going into Cleveland? Akron or Miami?

GraffZ06
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Location: Dayton, OH
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/8/2024 9:03:16 PM

BG wins (OR) Ball St & Toledo: We get WMU
Ball St & Kent St: We get BG

GraffZ06
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/8/2024 9:12:36 PM

And BG just won - so Western Michigan it is!

1. Toledo
2. Akron
3. Ohio
4. CMU
5. BG
6. WMU

If Kent wins they're 7 and Miami 8.
If Kent loses Miami is 7 and Kent is 8.

Don't think you could draw this up for us any better.
Western Michigan and then the winner of Akron/Miami (both reeling) as our road to the finals?

Last Edited: 3/8/2024 9:21:34 PM by GraffZ06

FearLeon
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/8/2024 9:22:53 PM

GraffZ06 wrote:

Agree�but man�I�d rather play Miami than WMU.

#BleedGreen #TrentIsGOAT

MonroeClassmate
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/8/2024 11:21:01 PM

bobcatsquared wrote:

Who's reeling more going into Cleveland? Akron or Miami?

Akron got the team they needed to right the ship. Perhaps get back on track. Both teams playing lousy or reeling.

I think WMU could have knocked off Akron but even though Miami took down the Zips earlier I see the Zips regaining some confidence when they send home the team in red and white.

FJC31
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/9/2024 11:08:55 AM

I kinda like drawing WMU for the reason it did beat us. We�ll play with more of an edge instead of going into a 3rd game against Miami overly confident.

FearLeon
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RE: 2024 MAC Tournament Discussion

Posted: 3/9/2024 4:36:56 PM

So does it go down in the record books as Ohio finishing T-2 in 2023-2024?

#BleedGreen #TrentIsGOAT

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