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Topic: RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Topic: RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

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OhioCatFan
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 14,016

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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/17/2018 3:58:47 PM

I'm no expert in assessing basketball talent, but it seemed to me that UT had talent that was almost to a man more athletic than ours. I was very surprised to see this. Perhaps every UT player was having his best game of the season all at the same time. But, this game more than any I can remember in a long time left me wondering if Saul has really not recruited well. I had flashbacks to BandyBall and BillyBall as I sat in my seat. A friend who was watching from home texted me in the second half that he had never seen such bad play since Dale Bandy. (I think he forgot about Billy Hahn.) I do realize that we had two freshman guards in the game at some points yesterday, and that Dartis is playing limited minutes and is injured, and that Carter is sorely missed. So I'm not calling for Saul's head, but color me worried at this point.

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

OU_Country
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Member Since: 12/6/2005
Location: On the road between Athens and Madison County
Post Count: 8,320

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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/17/2018 4:48:35 PM

Recovering Journalist wrote:

I just don't feel unreasonable in the least. We're in year four and it sucks. SP is either the highest or second-highest paid coach in the MAC. This program sells the most tickets in the MAC*. It puts the most butts in the seats in the MAC* (*poised to change). If you're cool with two seasons of 11-7 and no tournament final followed by the wilderness campaign of this season, then your expectations are exceptionally low.

The fact is, that as of right now, Miami is on the rise and this program is floundering. You're right that we're not Miami because they're in better shape right now.

I didn't consider the previous two seasons to be disappointments. If the results would have been the same last year, after losing Tony in January, I would have been disappointed. But there's the reality of losing him that made last year's results....okay with me. Not exceptional, but not disappointing. This year has been a big disappointment, no question. But to say "we're Miami" is a silly to me. Yes, Miami is better this year, but I'm saying 5-6 years in a row like Ohio is this year when I say we're not less than Miami. They've been bad, until this year, for several years in a row.

Look at every year, historically, since 1985, when the tournament went to 64+ teams. Since those years, 11-7 in the MAC has been the norm, with around 19-20 wins. That's where I'd set the realistic expectation level personally.

Beyond that, I went into the Ohio Basketball record book, link below, and popped the year over year win/loss numbers since 1980 into Excel to do a quick look at history. To me, that norm, over the last 37 years (not including this year because it's not complete) is what, within a little reason, the "expectations" should be. That 37 year average is 19.23 wins, 12.72 losses overall, 10.26 wins, and 7.01 losses in conference. Six NCAA Tournament appearance since 1980. I don't argue with your ROI comments regarding his contract and the extra investment causing a little loftier expectations, but how much more is realistic?

Further average numbers by coach:

Nee: 17.8-11.2; 12-5.67 (two NCAA's in 6 years)
Hahn: 14-15; 7.33-8.67 (three seasons)
Hunter: 17-12.33; 10.25-7.25 (1 NCAA in 12 years)
TOS: 17.14-13.57; 9.29-8.14 (1 NCAA in 7 years)
Groce: 21.25-14; 8.5-7.5 (two NCAA's in 4 years)
JC: 24.5-11; 12.5-4.5 (two seasons)
Saul: 19.23-12.73; 9-9 (3 seasons - I left out this year since it's not complete)

http://static.psbin.com/0/3/6j5k96ia30mtyv/ohio_mbb_1718_...

Last Edited: 1/18/2018 10:59:09 AM by OU_Country

OhioStunter
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Member Since: 2/18/2005
Location: Chicago
Post Count: 2,516

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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/17/2018 6:15:53 PM

OU_Country wrote:

Saul: 19.23-12.73; 9-9 (3 seasons - I left out this year since it's not complete)

http://static.psbin.com/0/3/6j5k96ia30mtyv/ohio_mbb_1718_...

How do you get Saul with an average of 19+ wins and 12+ losses?
WINS
2014-15: 10
2015-16: 23
2016-17: 20

53 / 3 = 17.67 Wins

LOSSES
2014-15: 20
2015-16: 12
2016-17: 11

43 / 3 = 14.33 Losses

17.67-14.33

Last Edited: 1/17/2018 6:17:04 PM by OhioStunter

Ohio69
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Post Count: 2,992

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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/17/2018 6:30:53 PM

greencat wrote:

I posted one time that he needed to recruit players that were at a minimum Carter/Kirk level or higher. No scrubs except as walk-ons.

This was amended with the prediction of what happened last night would happen.

Anybody still want to ridicule that post?

Sure. It�s a ridiculous statement. You are saying that every player on the team needs to be on the all-MAC freshman team and then All-MAC as a sophomore. No MAC team has ever had, or will have all their players do that. It�s just silly. And you know better dude.

Can somebody hit a pull up jumper for me?.....

OU_Country
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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/17/2018 6:49:05 PM

OhioStunter wrote:

OU_Country wrote:

Saul: 19.23-12.73; 9-9 (3 seasons - I left out this year since it's not complete)

http://static.psbin.com/0/3/6j5k96ia30mtyv/ohio_mbb_1718_...

Good question. Operator failure on the use of excel is likely the answer.

Alan Swank
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Member Since: 12/11/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 7,024

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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/17/2018 8:03:31 PM

OU_Country wrote:

OhioStunter wrote:

OU_Country wrote:

Saul: 19.23-12.73; 9-9 (3 seasons - I left out this year since it's not complete)

http://static.psbin.com/0/3/6j5k96ia30mtyv/ohio_mbb_1718_...

Good question. Operator failure on the use of excel is likely the answer.

With all the extra games now (preseason and post season tournaments), I think winning percentage is far more important. Even Hollywood has started comparing tickets sold vs. revenue for all time biggest movies.

OhioStunter
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Member Since: 2/18/2005
Location: Chicago
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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/17/2018 8:05:04 PM

OU_Country wrote:

OhioStunter wrote:

OU_Country wrote:

Saul: 19.23-12.73; 9-9 (3 seasons - I left out this year since it's not complete)

http://static.psbin.com/0/3/6j5k96ia30mtyv/ohio_mbb_1718_...

Good question. Operator failure on the use of excel is likely the answer.

I "excel"ed in getting Ds in Pre-Calculus freshman year, so it is not my strong suit. I don't want to go off on a tangent, though.

OU_Country
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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/17/2018 8:21:14 PM

Alan Swank wrote:

OU_Country wrote:

OhioStunter wrote:

OU_Country wrote:

Saul: 19.23-12.73; 9-9 (3 seasons - I left out this year since it's not complete)

http://static.psbin.com/0/3/6j5k96ia30mtyv/ohio_mbb_1718_...

Good question. Operator failure on the use of excel is likely the answer.

Over the course of a season or career, I agree on winning percentage as a better means of analysis. In conference, total wins works for me because it's been a similar number of games over decades.

Recovering Journalist
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Member Since: 8/17/2010
Location: Cleveland, OH
Post Count: 1,839

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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/17/2018 9:10:36 PM

OU_Country wrote:

Recovering Journalist wrote:

I didn't consider the previous two seasons to be disappointments. If the results would have been the same last year, after losing Tony in January, I would have been disappointed. But there's the reality of losing him that made last year's results....okay with me. Not exceptional, but not disappointing. This year has been a big disappointment, no question. But to say "we're Miami" is a silly to me. Yes, Miami is better this year, but I'm saying 5-6 years in a row like Ohio is this year when I say we're not less than Miami. They've been bad, until this year, for several years in a row.

Look at every year, historically, since 1985, when the tournament went to 64+ teams. Since those years, 11-7 in the MAC has been the norm, with around 19-20 wins. That's where I'd set the realistic expectation level personally.

Beyond that, I went into the Ohio Basketball record book, link below, and popped the year over year win/loss numbers since 1980 into Excel to do a quick look at history. To me, that norm, over the last 37 years (not including this year because it's not complete) is what, within a little reason, the "expectations" should be. That 37 year average is 19.23 wins, 12.72 losses overall, 10.26 wins, and 7.01 losses in conference. Six NCAA Tournament appearance since 1980. I don't argue with your ROI comments regarding his contract and the extra investment causing a little loftier expectations, but how much more is realistic?

Further average numbers by coach:

Knee: 17.8-11.2; 12-5.67 (two NCAA's in 6 years)
Hahn: 14-15; 7.33-8.67 (three seasons)
Hunter: 17-12.33; 10.25-7.25 (1 NCAA in 12 years)
TOS: 17.14-13.57; 9.29-8.14 (1 NCAA in 7 years)
Groce: 21.25-14; 8.5-7.5 (two NCAA's in 4 years)
JC: 24.5-11; 12.5-4.5 (two seasons)
Saul: 19.23-12.73; 9-9 (3 seasons - I left out this year since it's not complete)

http://static.psbin.com/0/3/6j5k96ia30mtyv/ohio_mbb_1718_...

You're working really hard to defend mediocrity. Saying that we're averaging out compared to the last 37 years is the very definition of low expectations. Those 37 years include fired coaches, transitions, the occasional down year.

We hired SP when he was coming off an NCAA win and one of the hottest commodities we could get. Like most here, I was thrilled with the hire. I was happy we committed the resources for someone so promising and up-and-coming. I don't recall the introductory press conference including stirring promises from Saul to be "about the same as the last 37 years in terms of winning percentage, minus any success in the MAC Tournament."

As disappointed as I am in the last four years (and I've been quiet until this month), the downward trend and lack of hope in terms of recruiting classes and existing firepower is what really has me making my "our program is worse than Miami" declarations, which as of today are indeed true. That's a bad place to be, and it's truly unacceptable given the salary and resources committed to get there.

Bobcat1996
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Member Since: 1/2/2017
Post Count: 795

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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/17/2018 9:12:04 PM

The interesting stat was that JG was 8.5 and 7.5 in the MAC, but made the NCAA twice. Groce didn't have an outstanding regular season record, but was able to win the conference tournament. For a league that gets only one bid, that is key. Play well for three games in March and get into the round of 68. He punched his ticket to the Big Ten on being able to peak in early March.

mcbin
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Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 949

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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/17/2018 10:02:00 PM

Bobcat1996 wrote:

You're totally correct. And if Ohio gets hot in March 2018 and wins *4* straight, none of this will matter either, because we'll be dancing.

I think the term last used when Groce was here was 'lightning in a bottle'.

Last Edited: 1/17/2018 10:04:44 PM by mcbin

BillyTheCat
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Member Since: 10/6/2012
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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/17/2018 10:25:30 PM

OU_Country wrote:

Recovering Journalist wrote:

I didn't consider the previous two seasons to be disappointments. If the results would have been the same last year, after losing Tony in January, I would have been disappointed. But there's the reality of losing him that made last year's results....okay with me. Not exceptional, but not disappointing. This year has been a big disappointment, no question. But to say "we're Miami" is a silly to me. Yes, Miami is better this year, but I'm saying 5-6 years in a row like Ohio is this year when I say we're not less than Miami. They've been bad, until this year, for several years in a row.

Look at every year, historically, since 1985, when the tournament went to 64+ teams. Since those years, 11-7 in the MAC has been the norm, with around 19-20 wins. That's where I'd set the realistic expectation level personally.

Beyond that, I went into the Ohio Basketball record book, link below, and popped the year over year win/loss numbers since 1980 into Excel to do a quick look at history. To me, that norm, over the last 37 years (not including this year because it's not complete) is what, within a little reason, the "expectations" should be. That 37 year average is 19.23 wins, 12.72 losses overall, 10.26 wins, and 7.01 losses in conference. Six NCAA Tournament appearance since 1980. I don't argue with your ROI comments regarding his contract and the extra investment causing a little loftier expectations, but how much more is realistic?

Further average numbers by coach:

Knee: 17.8-11.2; 12-5.67 (two NCAA's in 6 years)
Hahn: 14-15; 7.33-8.67 (three seasons)
Hunter: 17-12.33; 10.25-7.25 (1 NCAA in 12 years)
TOS: 17.14-13.57; 9.29-8.14 (1 NCAA in 7 years)
Groce: 21.25-14; 8.5-7.5 (two NCAA's in 4 years)
JC: 24.5-11; 12.5-4.5 (two seasons)
Saul: 19.23-12.73; 9-9 (3 seasons - I left out this year since it's not complete)

http://static.psbin.com/0/3/6j5k96ia30mtyv/ohio_mbb_1718_...

Did you really refer to Danny N�e as �Knee�? Your season tickets and fan status should probably be questioned 😎

OhioCatFan
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Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 14,016

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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/17/2018 11:17:58 PM

BillyTheCat wrote:

OU_Country wrote:

Recovering Journalist wrote:

I didn't consider the previous two seasons to be disappointments. If the results would have been the same last year, after losing Tony in January, I would have been disappointed. But there's the reality of losing him that made last year's results....okay with me. Not exceptional, but not disappointing. This year has been a big disappointment, no question. But to say "we're Miami" is a silly to me. Yes, Miami is better this year, but I'm saying 5-6 years in a row like Ohio is this year when I say we're not less than Miami. They've been bad, until this year, for several years in a row.

Look at every year, historically, since 1985, when the tournament went to 64+ teams. Since those years, 11-7 in the MAC has been the norm, with around 19-20 wins. That's where I'd set the realistic expectation level personally.

Beyond that, I went into the Ohio Basketball record book, link below, and popped the year over year win/loss numbers since 1980 into Excel to do a quick look at history. To me, that norm, over the last 37 years (not including this year because it's not complete) is what, within a little reason, the "expectations" should be. That 37 year average is 19.23 wins, 12.72 losses overall, 10.26 wins, and 7.01 losses in conference. Six NCAA Tournament appearance since 1980. I don't argue with your ROI comments regarding his contract and the extra investment causing a little loftier expectations, but how much more is realistic?

Further average numbers by coach:

Knee: 17.8-11.2; 12-5.67 (two NCAA's in 6 years)
Hahn: 14-15; 7.33-8.67 (three seasons)
Hunter: 17-12.33; 10.25-7.25 (1 NCAA in 12 years)
TOS: 17.14-13.57; 9.29-8.14 (1 NCAA in 7 years)
Groce: 21.25-14; 8.5-7.5 (two NCAA's in 4 years)
JC: 24.5-11; 12.5-4.5 (two seasons)
Saul: 19.23-12.73; 9-9 (3 seasons - I left out this year since it's not complete)

http://static.psbin.com/0/3/6j5k96ia30mtyv/ohio_mbb_1718_...

Did you really refer to Danny N�e as �Knee�? Your season tickets and fan status should probably be questioned 😎

If it was me, I'd blame autocorrect!;-)

100%Cat
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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/18/2018 9:00:48 AM

To quote Aaron Rogers, some people need to "R-E-L-A......XXXXXXXXX." Seriously, back away from the ledge. No coach would be winning with what has happened to this roster in the past 7-8 months. That's not making excuses, it's looking at the situation and being realistic.

spongeBOB CATpants
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Post Count: 947

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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/18/2018 9:17:17 AM

OhioCatFan wrote:

We don't look very athletic at all. I mean what exactly is our strength? I wouldn't say we have height, speed, shooters, or physical players. This has me questioning recruiting as well.

Recovering Journalist
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Location: Cleveland, OH
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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/18/2018 9:18:52 AM

100%Cat wrote:

Counterpoint: Would a standout coach HAVE this roster? Look at the recruiting grid and tell me honestly you see 12 quality MAC-level players.

Recovering Journalist
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Location: Cleveland, OH
Post Count: 1,839

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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/18/2018 9:40:06 AM

Bobcat1996 wrote:

We all know Groce's teams underperformed in the regular season. We also know he swung for the fences in recruiting and built teams that could actually succeed in March.

Tell me, do you see anything close to a D.J. Cooper, Armon Bassett, Ivo Balitc, Reggie Keely, Nick Kellogg or T.J. Hall on the roster? To even have a vague hope that this program will be "making noise" next March is wildly optimistic.

100%Cat
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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/18/2018 10:00:06 AM

Recovering Journalist wrote:

100%Cat wrote:

Counterpoint: Would a standout coach HAVE this roster? Look at the recruiting grid and tell me honestly you see 12 quality MAC-level players.

Does any coach in the MAC have that roster?

Name one MAC team where I can take their prospective conference POY and have him unexpectedly grad transfer, then take your best remaining player off the floor for the year, then take your next two best players and severely limit them with injury, and you'd still have an NCAA tournament team. Name that team for me.

Last Edited: 1/18/2018 10:01:56 AM by 100%Cat

OU_Country
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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/18/2018 10:03:33 AM

OhioCatFan wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

Did you really refer to Danny N�e as �Knee�? Your season tickets and fan status should probably be questioned 😎

If it was me, I'd blame autocorrect!;-)

Crap - yeah, auto correct + not proofing my post caused two errors in it. Crap.

GoCats105
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Member Since: 1/31/2006
Location: Seattle, WA
Post Count: 6,922

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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/18/2018 10:13:51 AM

Recovering Journalist wrote:

Bobcat1996 wrote:

Here's a fun little tidbit after scouring the old recruiting threads:

Groce recruited Jaaron Simmons out of high school. For those on this board who still hold that grudge.

Last Edited: 1/18/2018 10:14:47 AM by GoCats105

bn9
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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/18/2018 10:28:45 AM

Recovering Journalist wrote:

100%Cat wrote:

Counterpoint: Would a standout coach HAVE this roster? Look at the recruiting grid and tell me honestly you see 12 quality MAC-level players.

I like a good challenge:

Yes - Carter, Dartis, Kirk, Laster, Taylor, Mickle, Block, Butler

Have no idea because either no or limited sample - Gareri, VanderPlas

Maybe - Gollon (I think he could be a useful 9th or 10th man in the MAC)

Evidently not - Dozier

Remember, you said MAC level, not all-MAC or higher.

Recovering Journalist
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Location: Cleveland, OH
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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/18/2018 10:38:30 AM

100%Cat wrote:

Recovering Journalist wrote:

100%Cat wrote:

Counterpoint: Would a standout coach HAVE this roster? Look at the recruiting grid and tell me honestly you see 12 quality MAC-level players.

My point isn't that injuries should have no effect. My point is that our injuries have exposed a much deeper problem. We have players on scholarship (not all, but all too many) who aren't ready to contribute when they get here, aren't developing and progressing in their time here and are not even average by MAC standards.

GoCats105
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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/18/2018 10:45:17 AM

Recovering Journalist wrote:

100%Cat wrote:

Recovering Journalist wrote:

100%Cat wrote:

Counterpoint: Would a standout coach HAVE this roster? Look at the recruiting grid and tell me honestly you see 12 quality MAC-level players.

Injuries are always going to be a problem no matter how talented the roster. Does the 2012 team make the Sweet 16 if TJ Hall or Ricardo Johnson are asked to make the plays that Walt Offutt or Nick Kellogg did? You can't have 13 All-MAC players on the roster, it just doesn't happen.

Recovering Journalist
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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/18/2018 10:51:17 AM

bn9 wrote:

Recovering Journalist wrote:

100%Cat wrote:

Counterpoint: Would a standout coach HAVE this roster? Look at the recruiting grid and tell me honestly you see 12 quality MAC-level players.

Great! Now we can be an average or below-average MAC team! Our dreams are coming true as soon as we're healthy.

Two guys on that list - Laster and Taylor - have significantly and notably improved in their tenure. Others, whether from injury or some other reason, have either slid backward or stayed relatively the same. I'm including Kirk in that group, who is a huge talent with massive potential but still hasn't adjusted his shot or game one iota. Maybe that's good enough for you, but it shouldn't be.

OhioCatFan
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RE: Has Saul Lost The Team?

Posted: 1/18/2018 10:51:31 AM

GoCats105 wrote:

. . . You can't have 13 All-MAC players on the roster, it just doesn't happen.

We certainly made it look like Toledo did on Tuesday night!

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