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Topic: RE: Wofford Takes Down #4 UNC

Topic: RE: Wofford Takes Down #4 UNC

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OhioCatFan
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RE: Wofford Takes Down #4 UNC

Posted: 12/24/2017 11:27:15 PM

allen wrote:

New Mexico State beat #6 Miami, there have been 21 top ten upsets this year, the most in NCAA history.

Interesting stat. Thanks for posting.

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

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colobobcat66
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RE: Wofford Takes Down #4 UNC

Posted: 12/25/2017 12:06:39 PM

OhioCatFan wrote:

allen wrote:

New Mexico State beat #6 Miami, there have been 21 top ten upsets this year, the most in NCAA history.

Interesting stat. Thanks for posting.

Makes you wonder if the tide is turning just a little.

OUVan
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RE: Wofford Takes Down #4 UNC

Posted: 12/25/2017 12:10:36 PM

giacomo wrote:

All it would take is an NCAA mandate. Here is an example: for the next two years every MAC team plays every B10 team home and home. Half the conference is at home one year, and road the next year. After that it's another conference for two years. It can easily be done. With all the money at play it should be done.

The problem is the teams with the money don't want it to happen. In fact, things are sprinting hard in the other direction. The NCAA has little to no real power.

OUVan
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RE: Wofford Takes Down #4 UNC

Posted: 12/25/2017 12:15:26 PM

colobobcat66 wrote:

OhioCatFan wrote:

allen wrote:

New Mexico State beat #6 Miami, there have been 21 top ten upsets this year, the most in NCAA history.

Interesting stat. Thanks for posting.

Makes you wonder if the tide is turning just a little.

I think that's a factor of the top teams playing so many freshmen. The one-and-dones are great players, mind you, but with youth you get inconsistency. Our Maryland game is a perfect example of this. Just think of how athletically superior they seemed to us in that game yet they've had a number of close games against teams that aren't any better than us.

bornacatfan
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RE: Wofford Takes Down #4 UNC

Posted: 12/25/2017 1:52:34 PM

I would like to see a list of the 21 upsets we are talking about.

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allen
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RE: Wofford Takes Down #4 UNC

Posted: 12/26/2017 12:07:48 AM

bornacatfan wrote:

I would like to see a list of the 21 upsets we are talking about.

FSU over Florida, Oklahoma over Wichita State, BSU over Notre Dame, UCLA over Kentucky, Loyola over Florida, New Mexico over Miami, Washington over Kansas, BC over Duke, Wofford over NCU, Washington over Kansas, Arizona over Texas A&M (Arizona not ranked at the time), smu over Arizona, and NC State over Arizona.
These are the unranked ones that I am aware of.
ASU beat Kansas, A&M beat USC, Purdue over Arizona, and Notre Dame over Wichita State. These are the ranked ones that i am aware of. The top 25 team upsets by unranked teams is much higher than the 21 top ten upsets.

Last Edited: 12/26/2017 12:30:35 AM by allen

Nobody despises to lose more than I do. That's got me into trouble over the years, but it also made a man of mediocre ability into a pretty good coach. Woody Hayes

GoCats105
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RE: Wofford Takes Down #4 UNC

Posted: 12/26/2017 9:35:09 AM

allen wrote:

bornacatfan wrote:

I would like to see a list of the 21 upsets we are talking about.

Half of those aren't even upset...the true definition anyway, which is subjective. They're just basketball games where the favored or higher ranked team lost.

allen
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RE: Wofford Takes Down #4 UNC

Posted: 12/26/2017 9:46:59 AM

GoCats105 wrote:

allen wrote:

bornacatfan wrote:

I would like to see a list of the 21 upsets we are talking about.

Half of those aren't even upset...the true definition anyway, which is subjective. They're just basketball games where the favored or higher ranked team lost.

Not true, most were unranked teams beating top ten teams and when you throw in the top 25 the numbers get even more ridiculous. If you throw in the moral victories, we could be well into the hundreds. It is good to have each other's 6's, but we have to keep it real at the same time.

Nobody despises to lose more than I do. That's got me into trouble over the years, but it also made a man of mediocre ability into a pretty good coach. Woody Hayes

D.A.
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RE: Wofford Takes Down #4 UNC

Posted: 12/26/2017 11:09:44 AM

I'm not a working/paid statistician, but just by the sheer volume of games/teams, isn't MBB engineered to feature more upsets that other D1 sports? Just for comparison's sake, let's compare D1 MBB and FBS FB.

In hoops, you have 351 teams playing, for rough rounding purposes and factoring in each team playing one out of division opponent, 27 D1 games. That totals 9,477 games.

On the gridiron, you have 130 teams playing, again factoring in each team playing one FCS game, 11 FBS games. That totals 1,430 games. So on the surface, you are featuring 663% more games in a season within the division in MBB.

(edited due to poor statistical analysis) Both sports only rank 25 teams for national ranking purposes. That means 675 games in MBB featuring a top 25 team v 275 in FBS. So statistically, on the surface, hoops should be 245% more likely to produce a top 25 upset than FB. So just by definition, you are going to have roughly two and a half more games featuring a team in the top 25 v a team outside of the top 25.

So is the volume of upsets in MBB really that far much of a statistical outlier? The numbers above obviously doesn't factor in a number of other variables such as the size of rosters, length of game, one and dones, etc. I'm not peeing on someone's corn flakes, as I like a good underdog/upset story as much as the next guy, but I expect to see more upsets in hoops.

Last Edited: 12/26/2017 11:23:48 AM by D.A.

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allen
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RE: Wofford Takes Down #4 UNC

Posted: 12/26/2017 11:23:46 AM

D.A. wrote:

I'm not a working/paid statistician, but just by the sheer volume of games/teams, isn't MBB engineered to feature more upsets that other D1 sports? Just for comparison's sake, let's compare D1 MBB and FBS FB.

In hoops, you have 351 teams playing, for rough rounding purposes and factoring in each team playing one out of division opponent, 27 D1 games. That totals 9,477 games.

On the gridiron, you have 130 teams playing, again factoring in each team playing one FCS game, 11 FBS games. That totals 1,430 games.

And both only rank 25 teams for national ranking purposes. So statistically, on the surface, hoops should be 663% more likely to produce a top 25 upset than FB. Just by definition, you are going to have roughly 600% more games featuring a team in the top 25 v a team outside of the top 25.

So is the volume of upsets in MBB really that far much of a statistical outlier? The numbers above obviously doesn't factor in a number of other variables such as the size of rosters, length of game, one and dones, etc. I'm not peeing on someone's corn flakes, as I like a good underdog/upset story as much as the next guy, but I expect to see more upsets in hoops.

I wasn�t comparing it to football. I have never seen 6 top ten teams get beaten by G5 conference opponents. I believe that there are about 5 elite unbeatable teams in college basketball and about 10 in football. The fact that Oakland almost beat Michigan State says something.

Nobody despises to lose more than I do. That's got me into trouble over the years, but it also made a man of mediocre ability into a pretty good coach. Woody Hayes

D.A.
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RE: Wofford Takes Down #4 UNC

Posted: 12/26/2017 12:56:44 PM

allen wrote:

D.A. wrote:

I'm not a working/paid statistician, but just by the sheer volume of games/teams, isn't MBB engineered to feature more upsets that other D1 sports? Just for comparison's sake, let's compare D1 MBB and FBS FB.

In hoops, you have 351 teams playing, for rough rounding purposes and factoring in each team playing one out of division opponent, 27 D1 games. That totals 9,477 games.

On the gridiron, you have 130 teams playing, again factoring in each team playing one FCS game, 11 FBS games. That totals 1,430 games.

And both only rank 25 teams for national ranking purposes. So statistically, on the surface, hoops should be 663% more likely to produce a top 25 upset than FB. Just by definition, you are going to have roughly 600% more games featuring a team in the top 25 v a team outside of the top 25.

So is the volume of upsets in MBB really that far much of a statistical outlier? The numbers above obviously doesn't factor in a number of other variables such as the size of rosters, length of game, one and dones, etc. I'm not peeing on someone's corn flakes, as I like a good underdog/upset story as much as the next guy, but I expect to see more upsets in hoops.

Yes, I get what you are saying, I merely brought FB in to provide my own comparison for why I have a greater expectation for upset in hoops. Another thing that I believe will lead to more top 10/25 upsets in hoops is the proliferation of conference arranged agreements such as BIG 10 v ACC, and made for TV "pre-conference season" events, which will pit higher quality opponents against each other before they hit conference play. The more you see P5+Big East teams playing against one another, you will see a higher volume of losses by top 25 teams, and it really jobs the also rans, who used to be able to schedule the higher tier conferences more frequently. These types of scheduling agreements will continue to disadvantage the non power schools in being awarded at large tourney bids.

Last Edited: 12/26/2017 12:57:48 PM by D.A.

OUVan
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RE: Wofford Takes Down #4 UNC

Posted: 12/26/2017 9:51:42 PM

allen wrote:

Except most of those teams are ranked higher now than the team that they beat. Only four of those games were mids so nothing really to see here. And I have no idea what the heck that last sentence even means or relates to the conversation.

allen
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RE: Wofford Takes Down #4 UNC

Posted: 12/27/2017 9:18:16 AM

OUVan wrote:

allen wrote:

Not true again, a few teams are now ranked higher. The point is that there are only four or five teams that are truly unbeatable. I think that the one and done rule helps more experienced and confident mid majors win games against the likes of NCU. It creates more parity

Nobody despises to lose more than I do. That's got me into trouble over the years, but it also made a man of mediocre ability into a pretty good coach. Woody Hayes

OU_Country
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RE: Wofford Takes Down #4 UNC

Posted: 12/27/2017 9:54:26 AM

OUVan wrote:

allen wrote:

That's the norm though, isn't it? Makes a normal or reasonable point, follows it with babble about moral victories, etc. -- stuff that no one on here even cares to see anymore because it's a broken record of nonsense.

allen
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RE: Wofford Takes Down #4 UNC

Posted: 1/7/2018 7:13:00 PM

This is a pretty interesting article. https://www.google.com/amp/s/deadspin.com/there-are-no-re...

Nobody despises to lose more than I do. That's got me into trouble over the years, but it also made a man of mediocre ability into a pretty good coach. Woody Hayes

bshot44
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RE: Wofford Takes Down #4 UNC

Posted: 1/7/2018 10:51:31 PM

allen wrote:

This is a pretty interesting article. https://www.google.com/amp/s/deadspin.com/there-are-no-re...

Ohio played two of the winless teams mentioned... and Prairie View ... and NAIA NW Ohio. Schedule certainly got them ready for MAC.

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