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Topic: RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Western Michigan

Topic: RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Western Michigan

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Monroe Slavin
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RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Western Michigan

Posted: 12/6/2016 1:24:22 AM

Mark Lembright '85 wrote:

Monroe Slavin wrote:

Now, if our coaching staff would also realize clock and score management and stop being so deathly afraid of a turnover (also see MACC 20-0 to 20-23), perhaps some posters on this board wouldn't have a leg to stand on.

Conversely, after having only had 2 first downs up to that point, what if Ohio tries a long pass, it's incomplete, thus stopping the clock, giving WMU the ball in Ohio territory with say 25 seconds left? With Corey Davis' long TD catch earlier in the half, WMU had already demonstrated quick strike ability. If this scenario took place and WMU had scored a TD and extended the score even more (and absolutely have momentum on its side) to say 30-7, Monroe, you'd be all over Solich for poor clock management. And don't say that you'd have given Solich kudos for at least trying; that's being intellectually dishonest. Belichick would NOT have gone for it in that situation and that's with having Tom Brady.

I agree-Ohio's had some questionable playcalling this year, no doubt. Not throwing from deep in its territory with 36 seconds left on 3rd down after having demonstrated an inability (up to that point) to move the ball against the #17 team in the country in front of a very hostile crowd and already being down 23-7 is not one of those times.

So, we play the game in fear of a turnover. On what % of plays from scrimmage does a turnover occur. Let's say 5%, which has to be high. That's a 95% that a turnover won't occur on a given play.

Then, what % of the time do turnovers in the situations we were in result in TD's for the opposition. Yes, we were near our goal line, but our D was playing well. Heck, let's call this 40%, which I imagine is high. Then, there's a 1.25% chance that going for it would have backfired.

So, a 1-2% chance over a handful of so or plays that going for it on each of the two occasions might have entailed.

In a game in which we had nothing to lose, being a huge underdog...and so much to gain by winning.

Now, we can't know what going for it on each occasion would have resulted in. But we lost, so I think it's firmer ground, given the percentages, to say that not going for it hurt us.

I just don't understand this ultra-conservative, deathly-fear-of-a-turnover, fear-laden attitude.

We just flat tice gave up on two possibilities, however longshot, to advance our cause. Solich is 0-4 in MACC so something isn't perfect. Deathly fear of turnover or anything but take air out of ball got us 20-0 to 20-23 last time. Lesson NOT learned.

And, no, I would not have been raking on Solich if going for it had backfired. Lost in the hate for me is that I'm pretty consistent. If I advocate a course, I own its consequences.

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Monroe Slavin
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RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Western Michigan

Posted: 12/6/2016 3:39:26 AM

Lookit, if the chance of a turnover is so great and the damage from a turnover so certain, the logical extension is that we should about never try to advance the ball, instead putting the ball in the other side's hands which are so likely to turn it over in a way that creates points for us.

And, I'm not saying that we go for it every time in those circumstances, though almost always when we have a short clock and a first down, but in a game in which we have nothing to lose (being such a decided underdog) and so much to gain (a MACC!), we should definitely go for it.

I guess we'll never have a mind meeting here because I think not going for it in these two circumstances was totally wrong, showed give-up-fear in the face of true opportunity.

It's just never-a-MACC football.

Last Edited: 12/6/2016 3:39:56 AM by Monroe Slavin

doubledribble
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RE: Official MAC Championship Gameou Thread: Western Michiganhigan

Posted: 12/6/2016 9:45:22 AM

We have not learned much from 8,261 posts on this fan board, but it has been proven, 8,200 some times that Monroe certainly does not understand football coaching strategy. Enough is enough for me.

Last Edited: 12/6/2016 1:22:05 PM by doubledribble

Mark Lembright '85
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RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Western Michigan

Posted: 12/6/2016 9:48:48 AM

I think you're overlooking field position and the flow of the game. Let's look at the odds. Ohio up to that point had one very good offensive play and that's it. The remainder of the half was offensive futility. What leads you to believe Ohio could have rattled off several first downs in a 30 second period when it hadn't all during the rest of the 1st half? I would argue in that very situation that the odds are greater that a turnover occurs then success. And its not conservative to protect the ball when the team is literally in the shadows of its own endzone with 36 seconds to play in the half. Yes Monroe, had Ohio committed a turnover right then and there leading to more points you would have been all over Solich for poor ball and clock management and quite frankly you'd be right to do so!

Field position is key here. Ohio with the ball at its 40 yard line or even better than yes, definitely go for it. No doubt. Deep in its own territory, not so much. Yes its conservative football at that point in time. Its also smart football.

All this being said, that possession was not why Ohio lost the game nor was it even a factor. Ohio's inability to cover WMU's receivers, lack of consistent pressure on WMU's QB in the 1st half and that last interception to end the game were definitely greater factors.

Last Edited: 12/6/2016 9:51:24 AM by Mark Lembright '85

Monroe Slavin
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RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Western Michigan

Posted: 12/6/2016 10:28:53 AM

I say that I'd have owned the decision and its potential bad consequences ..and you tell me I wouldn't have. Seriously? I argue strongly for what I believe in but I've never told anyone what they feel or would feel.

Field position has a bit to do with it but not much. Again, morbid fear of turnover is a formula for 0-4 MACC and 20-0 to 20-23.

We hadn't much stopped WMU? That is EXACTLY why we should go for it, instead of turning the ball over to them and giving them more chances to score. Yes, it's a long shot but if we'd've made the 3rd and 14, WMU would not have gotten the ball and scored to go from up 16-7 to 23-7.

And, in fact, we'd been stopping them all half. Hold them to field goals or not scores mostly at that point--only 16 points by a high-scoring machine despite our two turnovers deep in our territory.

Definitely good coaching to forego chances to score. See the loss to Minnesota last year and the same approach at end of first half. Worked so well in that close loss, too.

Your approach works so well.

Mark Lembright '85
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RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Western Michigan

Posted: 12/6/2016 11:03:04 AM

I'm thinking we're going to have to agree to disagree on this one.

Next topic bitte!

OhioCatFan
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RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Western Michigan

Posted: 12/6/2016 11:33:43 AM

Monroe,

I purpose you do a survey off all 128 FBS head coaches. Give them the exact details of the situation, and ask them if they'd throw the ball down field in that situation or if they'd try to run clock. I suspect you'd find very few who would take the first option and the vast majority would opt to run the clock. Now maybe you are a better football mind than these coaches, but I've seen no evidence of it.

Actually, your high risk approach reminds me of a head coach at Kent State back in the 1960s (or maybe early '70s). This dude (can't remember his name) came up with some statistic that supposedly proved that you would be better off going for it nearly every time you faced a fourth down, regardless of field position. He tried this strategy. As I recall he abandoned this approach halfway through the season when it wasn't working. His theory based on his statistics proved in actually practice not to work. I think he wasn't the KSU coach for more than three years. I submit that your statistical analysis is probably right on par with this coaches use of statistics.

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Monroe Slavin
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RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Western Michigan

Posted: 12/6/2016 12:50:34 PM

Mark--I do want to have a full, friendly discussion even if we disagree.

So, may I add one more thought?

I believe that it was stated that Solich wins about 85% (maybe more) of games in which his teams (well, at OHIO, apparently) lead at halftime. I assume that this is generally true, that teams that lead at the half win a very large percentage of the time. Intuitively makes sense since winning one half of a game should mean a team can also win the second half...or lose it by less than it's first half lead. I understand this assumption can be challenged, but let me proceed.

That being the case, why would we waste any reasonable opportunities to catch up a bit, to narrow the difference so that we could win the 2nd half in a way that would let us win the game?

Now, and to answer OCF, that applies to reasonable opportunities. So, I'd've passed instead of run on 3rd and 14 from our 10, not being paralyzed by fear of turnover. But I wouldn't have gone for it on 4th down there.

Likewise, 36 seconds in the half and first and 10 at our 25, I pass it until 4th down.

Mark Lembright '85
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RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Western Michigan

Posted: 12/6/2016 1:15:31 PM

My reasoning is the same that's everyone's else's on here. Field position.

As a matter of course, if I'm down by my own end zone with 36 seconds left to play in the half, against a superior team and my offense has not shown an ability up to that point to be able to move the ball, in a game where I'm already down by 16 points, and I'm on the road, I'm running out the clock, plain and simple. I will make my adjustments at halftime and come out swinging in the 2nd half. I do not want to risk making the game out of reach.

Remember, Ohio's not playing this game in a vacuum. If Ohio comes out in a spread formation with 4-5 wideouts with 36 seconds left, WMU's defense is going to bring the heat. You say the risk of a turnover is low. I say the risk of a safety is significant if WMU's able to get to the QB. I don't want to take that chance. It seems to me the risk of something bad NEAR MY OWN END ZONE is greater than something good happening.

For me its a simple matter of field position. And for most coaches, I imagine its the samething. I'm not being facetious when I say, I very highly doubt that Bill Belichick would go for it in that circumstance.

And to be honest, for me (and me only) this was an insignificant part of the game. There were many other drives that one could point to as to why Ohio lost. For me, this isn't one of them.

And no worries, it's all good. I love your passion for all that's Ohio-I just hate the sheer repetition of your message, even if there are times I agree with it.

Bcat2
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RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Western Michigan

Posted: 12/6/2016 1:46:11 PM

Mark Lembright '85 wrote:

Mark. Lot to your post. Unfortunately, I have seen many others present such posts and have yet to see any indication Monroe even reads them.

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Maryland Bobcat
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RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Western Michigan

Posted: 12/8/2016 7:58:44 AM

Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:

Monroe Slavin wrote:

Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:

Maryland Bobcat wrote:

Monroe Slavin wrote:

cc-cat wrote:

MonroeClassmate wrote:

What is the answer?

Belichick has always preached that the number one priority is to not give the ball back to the opponent if you get possession near the end of the half. Second objective is to score. Of course it helps on both counts to have Brady.

Look, we played quite a good game.

But a coaching staff that puts fear of a turnover before the importance of trying to score is...mediocre.

In a game in which we, being a huge underdog, we had nothing to lose, on our last two drives of the first half (3rd and long from our 10 and we run instead of pass...36 seconds to go and we run out the half instead of trying to score), the coaching staff underperformed, showing us why no MACC in 12 years.

But, sure, it's gonna happen in year 13.

I was puzzled by the same thing. We're going to the Dollar General Bowl no matter the outcome, you're 18-point underdogs, and you haven't won a title in 48 years. Show some desire to try and WIN and not to try and not lose.

You can harp on this all you want, but the more you say it doesn't make it smart. When you can't run AT ALL, you sure don't take chances deep in your own territory with :36 to go with your rusty qb who hasn't played in a month. Yes, it was great that he hit a deep ball a few drives earlier, but it wasn't smart to take chances there. I didn't even like us running the ball on that one play. I thought we should have just taken a knee. We did the smart thing. Get to the locker room and adjust. IF you want to harp on something that might have cost us the game late in the first half, it was the tripping penalty. Instead of picking up a critical 1st down that at the very least gets us to the end of the half down only 16-7, we end up in a huge hole, have to punt and WMU gets a score before half thanks to a short field. I'm not positive but those 7 points were fairly important in a 6-point game. If you want to be mad about something in the 2016 season, be mad about Texas State and EMU beating us at home. Neither of those should have happened.

OCF--You are correct. I am totally responsible for us coming up a bit short of the W vs. WMU.

L.C.-- I've considered your question. I think it's close, but the team should probably not listen to those who protest the coaching, who question if we're able to get it done.

DFC--So, AFTER the tripping and the further deficit from the tripping resulting in, as you say, a huge whole and crucial 7 points in a 6 point loss., we should button down and not take a shot, not try to get the points back.

That makes no sense.

The odds of a turnover are a lot less than the odds of a turnover not happening.

The odds of making a first down on 3rd and 14 and the odds of scoring from deep in our territory with 36 seconds left in the half are long...but non-existent if you don't try.

Simply put, please spend less time all angered up and learn to count in terms of points and clock.

repeat all you want. Doesn't make it true. You're wrong here. Has nothing to do with the chances of a turnover vs a non-turnover. It's a high-risk, low reward situation to throw the ball there. It's not like there were 2.5 or 3 minutes. There were 36 seconds. Our defense needed to regroup and not be put in another bad situation. They took the half to adjust and crushed it. THAT is what gave us a chance in this game. So, blah blah blah, say the same thing again and again... ORRRRRRRRRRRRRRR... You can try to push more of your product to buy out Frank's contract. Kibble in bag! Get it done!

When you have one of the best kickers in the game I don't see it as low-reward. 36 seconds when the clock stops on first downs it plenty of time to take some shots down the field and try and get into range. Those 3 points would have come in handy down the stretch, no? No matter how you look at it that call was playing "not to lose".

Maryland Bobcat
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RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Western Michigan

Posted: 12/8/2016 8:04:23 AM

OhioCatFan wrote:

I think you're right that most probably wouldn't in a typical game situation. My point is that I'd argue this wasn't a typical situation. 18-point underdogs where every single possession counts, you're going to the same bowl game no matter what the outcome, and you haven't won in 48 years. Those circumstances I think change what a typical coach would do in a typical 3rd and 15 with 36 seconds to go. Their chances of winning at the game at that point had fallen way down, so giving up another score at that point had they failed would not have really mattered. They really could have used those 3 points. Papi White can do some amazing things if given the chance.

It's not what lost them the game (there were a myriad of other plays that contributed). I just thought it sent a signal, and just thought it a bit shocking that we weren't more aggressive and try and score on any possible opportunity.

Last Edited: 12/8/2016 8:07:12 AM by Maryland Bobcat

Monroe Slavin
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RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Western Michigan

Posted: 12/8/2016 10:24:07 AM

Still think that fear of a turnover is a limiting paralysis and that a team should not turn down reasonable chances to score. How many times does a team take possession in a game? Why would we give up two of them in a game in which we had nothing to lose and in which a victory would have been MONUMENTAL?

It's too much part of the conservative approach that seems to limit our players' potential.

mid70sbobcat
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RE: Official MAC Championship Gameou Thread: Western Michiganhigan

Posted: 12/8/2016 2:08:33 PM

doubledribble wrote:

We have not learned much from 8,261 posts on this fan board, but it has been proven, 8,200 some times that Monroe certainly does not understand football coaching strategy. Enough is enough for me.

Agreed. And further, Monroe doesn't comprehend the first thing about probability. Going 75 yards in 30 seconds is so incredibly low from a probabilistic standpoint that it doesn't present much in the way of a positive outcome. It forces the offense to throw long balls and that increases the likelihood of getting picked downfield possibly leading to another 3 points for the opposition. Or setting up for a long throw also brings into play the possibility of the QB getting hit from the blind side and a fumble. Again, such an outcome could lead to an even wider deficit. I'm guessing Monroe thinks buying a lottery ticket has a reasonable chance of a positive outcome.

Last Edited: 12/8/2016 2:09:46 PM by mid70sbobcat

L.C.
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RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Western Michigan

Posted: 12/8/2016 3:31:35 PM

Maryland Bobcat wrote:

I think you're right that most probably wouldn't in a typical game situation. My point is that I'd argue this wasn't a typical situation. 18-point underdogs where every single possession counts,...

This is the kind of thinking that causes 18 point underdogs to lose by 40. So you're an underdog? Big deal. The game is on the line. You believe in yoursefl, you play your game, and you stick to the game plan, and you have the best chance to win. You start doing things you normally wouldn't do, and your chance of really bad results jumps dramatically.

By the way, giving up extra points to WMU is not the only bad result that was possible. Injuries are also possible, particularly to the QB, who the defensive line is going to be after full bore.

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bshot44
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RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Western Michigan

Posted: 12/8/2016 3:47:17 PM

So let me just ask a hypothetical here....

What if there was a 1:30 on the clock....same score (23-7)...same position on the field...with timeouts.

Do you think Frank sits on the ball still?

And if he does....is that still the "correct" call?

At what point is it "okay" to take a shot late in the half when you're an 18-point underdog?

2:00? 3:00?

When is it okay to maybe press the gas pedal and go a little over the speed limit?

Bcat2
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RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Western Michigan

Posted: 12/8/2016 3:51:27 PM

L.C. wrote:

Maryland Bobcat wrote:

I think you're right that most probably wouldn't in a typical game situation. My point is that I'd argue this wasn't a typical situation. 18-point underdogs where every single possession counts,...

L.C. So well presented. Thanks. You with the patience of Job.

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

PA Bobcat Fan
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RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Western Michigan

Posted: 12/8/2016 5:29:11 PM

PSU was down 28-7 vs. Wisconsin 2nd quarter with .58 sec on the clock. Their OC coach didn't give up and just have them UTM. PSU QB threw a long pass and they scored a TD right before the half to go into the locker room with great momentum. Great coaches know when to take risks. Coaches with the inability to teach a team to score never take risks.

Casper71
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RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Western Michigan

Posted: 12/8/2016 8:39:30 PM

Guys, I believe one some/often times used play with 3-14 at the 10 is a bomb down the field. An int at or past midfield does what the punt would do on the next play if the pass is incomplete and you also give yourself a chance for the first. Agree with Monroe that we took the standard/conservative approach on the play and I think that is what he is bitching about. Taking no chance.

Don't know the statistics on this one...you could have a safety on the four which wouldn't be good!

Monroe Slavin
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RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Western Michigan

Posted: 12/8/2016 8:44:01 PM

Great to see people use giving up two reasonable chances to score in a game in which we only had 12 possessions and LOST by six as proof that certainly the right thing was done.

I may be wrong, but it would seem about impossible to score if one doesn't try to score.

Paralysis any way if you're determined to take the small odds as likely to happen, turnover leading to score, qb injury, goalposts falling on a player, tripping over a yardmarker, etc.

Last Edited: 12/8/2016 8:46:50 PM by Monroe Slavin

Bcat2
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RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Western Michigan

Posted: 12/9/2016 6:46:13 AM

PA Bobcat Fan wrote:

That long pass was 40 yards. PSU was on the Wis side if the field. Put Ohio on the Western 40 with 30 seconds left and Ohio takes the shot. Not apples to apples in your example.

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

.
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RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Western Michigan

Posted: 12/9/2016 9:46:09 AM

I think it's fair game to criticize play-calling based on entire games. Or entire seasons. Or entire coaching careers. Even over the span of a quarter. It's hardly ever fair to criticize based on a single play.

There are about 50 factors � including tendency and defensive alignment and field position and the head coach's wishes � swimming in a playcaller's head and he has about five seconds to make a decision.

Last Edited: 12/9/2016 9:47:25 AM by .

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