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Topic: RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Topic: RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

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Victory
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/2/2016 7:11:48 PM

I started wondering what it would take for a MAC team to make the Access Bowl spot. WMU is ranked and a MAC team getting in by any other method than WMU running the table is really unlikely. I started to put together my own G5 top 20 (including BYU and Army).

1 Houston AAC 5-0
2 Boise St MWC 4-0
3 W Michigan MAC 5-0
4 South Florida AAC 4-1
5 Air Force MWC 4-0
6 Ga Southern SBC 3-1
7 Troy SBC 4-1
8 BYU Ind 2-3
9 Memphis AAC 3-1
10 Navy AAC 3-1
11 San Diego St MWC 3-1
12 Toledo MAC 3-1
13 Appalachian St SBC 3-2
14 Southern Miss CUSA 4-1
15 UCF AAC 3-2
16 C Michigan MAC 3-2
17 Tulsa AAC 3-1
18 MTSU CUSA 4-1
19 WKU CUSA 3-2
20 Cincinnati AAC 3-2

Down to 25 the rest of this poll would be filled out by some combination of Ohio, Akron, EMU, Army, Temple, ECU, South Alabama, and Utah State but with a G5 ranking we're getting well into teams with little on their resume and going past 20 started to get impossible.

With a win over Oklahoma, Houston is looks like the class of the G5 so far. Last year the AAC had a bunch of good teams in it. This year it stands out from the rest of the G5 not because there are as many good teams as last year but because it has Houston and it doesn't have any really bad teams (CUSA has cornered the market on really bad teams). Houston losing to Louisville isn't going to do it. The best chance is if Houston loses the AAC title to someone other than Memphis or South Florida. Boise St. is going to probably end up with a slightly tougher schedule than WMU and would probably be ranked higher if they go unbeaten. If Air Force were to beat Boise St. in the last week it would be interesting. I think even though Air Force would have beaten Navy OOC WMU might have the argument for a tougher overall schedule. I'm guessing a marquee win over Boise would put AFA in. They might need to lose another game.

In short even though WMU is ranked this is a real long shot.

And, I know, WMU's other problem is that they are going to be stunned in the MACCG.

Last Edited: 10/2/2016 7:13:48 PM by Victory

C Money
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/2/2016 8:12:26 PM

Sagarin this week has the MAC as follows:

#24 WMU - Rating 82.51
#39 Toledo - Rating 76.73
#90 CMU - Rating 64.76
#94 Ohio - Rating 63.57
#98 Akron - Rating 61.53
#104 NIU - Rating 59.14
#105 Ball St - Rating 58.92
#136 Miami - Rating 52.28
#138 Kent St - Rating 51.34
#139 EMU - Rating 51.56 (Interesting that his system isn't giving EMU much respect despite the 4-1 record)
#146 BG - Rating 49.97
#149 Buffalo - Rating 49.66

When using Sagarin's ratings, you give the home team an extra 3 points, and the difference is the expected outcome. So, he would project us to beat all the remaining East teams on our schedule + EMU, lose to Toledo by two TDs, and lose to CMU by about 4. He'd project Akron to lose to WMU and Toledo big, be in a VERY tight game at Ball State (with maybe a slight edge to BSU), and lose to us, winning every other game.

I'd be happy with that outcome.

Mike Johnson
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/2/2016 10:28:41 PM

South Alabama fans are likely puzzled by their Jaguars. Wins over Mississippi State and San Diego State - and losses to Georgia Southern and La-Lafayette along with a 1-pt squeaker over Nichols.

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BillyTheCat
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/2/2016 10:35:39 PM

Mike Johnson wrote:

South Alabama fans are likely puzzled by their Jaguars. Wins over Mississippi State and San Diego State - and losses to Georgia Southern and La-Lafayette along with a 1-pt squeaker over Nichols.

MSU is NOT very good

Mike Johnson
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/2/2016 10:55:29 PM

BillyTheCat wrote:

Mike Johnson wrote:

South Alabama fans are likely puzzled by their Jaguars. Wins over Mississippi State and San Diego State - and losses to Georgia Southern and La-Lafayette along with a 1-pt squeaker over Nichols.

MSU is NOT very good

Hmmm...After that loss to South Alabama, Mississippi State results:
* 27-14 over South Carolina
* 23-20 loss to LSU
* 47-35 over UMass

We'll see how the Bulldogs do in the coming 3 games when they take on Auburn, BYU and KY.

Phil Steele predicted a 9-win season.

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Casper71
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/3/2016 12:16:53 AM

I rest my case on recruiting. We need MORE BETTER players to win a MACC. We have all seen WMU piling up a bunch of 3-star guys since PJ arrived at WMU. The fruits of that labor are now showing. Not sure how they are doing it...PJ Fleck only? But however they are doing it we should try getting on board with that philosophy. I guess I will say it til I die...it is just real difficult if not impossible to get a bunch of 2-star, NR guys and walk ons playing at a high enough level to win a MACC.

Last Edited: 10/3/2016 12:18:58 AM by Casper71

bobcat695
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/3/2016 8:37:55 AM

Fleck has high energy and attraction qualities that nobody else in the conference has. I'm not sure about the X's and O's, but he's doing a great job getting the talent into the program and motivating the team. The energy on the WMU sideline is the best in the MAC.

"You can't un-fist a fist pump." - Saul Phillips 1/24/15

Recovering Journalist
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/3/2016 8:52:53 AM

Western is clearly in its own tier this year, and Fleck will leave the cupboard stuffed with goodies when he leaves for more money. That will likely be at the end of this year. It will be interesting to see how long Western will be the standard bearer for the conference once they have to replace such a dynamic coach.

I still think Row the Boat is stupid despite clear evidence that every kid in Kalamazoo has bought in to it.

OU_Country
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/3/2016 11:19:57 AM

Recovering Journalist wrote:

+1. WMU is a notch above everyone from what I've seen.

Row the boat, while silly, is a good, only because anything you get people to buy into as a tagline supporting the team is a great thing, no matter how goofy it is.

Mark Lembright '85
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/3/2016 12:35:47 PM

ESPN's COllege Gameday had a short little piece on Fleck this past Saturday and even they were saying Fleck's not long for that program. Will Western Michigan sustain success after he leaves or will they implode like BGSU has? Time will tell.

Mike Johnson
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/3/2016 12:40:23 PM

Mark Lembright '85 wrote:

We Bobcat fans are too familiar with implosions. Let's see, after the Brian Burke firing came the Cleve/Lichty implosion and after the Grobe departure the Knorr implosion. Let's hope for better after Coach Solich signs off.

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Bcat2
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/3/2016 4:06:04 PM

Recovering Journalist wrote:

Well Fleck was coaching/recruiting at NIU 2007-2009. He helped bring in Chandler Harnish, Jordan Lynch and others that carried NIU for years.

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

Pataskala
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/4/2016 10:24:37 AM

One reason why WMU has done so well: NO giveaways in their first five games. They haven't beaten themselves.

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

L.C.
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/4/2016 11:26:54 AM

Casper71 wrote:

I have always agreed with you here, Casper. Coaching can only get you so far. You need recruiting, too. Fleck is proof enough of that. First, his recruiting at NIU from 2007-2009 was followed by NIU getting to the MAC every year from 2010-2015 (players he recruited would have played between 2010-2014), and winning it 3 of 6 tries. With his recruits gone, NIU appears to be back in the middle of the pack. Next, his recruiting at WMU has turned WMU into what thus far appears to be the best MAC team since Miami 2003.

Ohio's recruiting has improved a lot, and continues to improve, but it's been a much slower process than I ever imagined. Even now it's still not at the level that WMU and Toledo have been having in recent years. It doesn't mean that they can't win the MACC, but it will mean they will be an underdog in the Championship game, if they get there.

As a FWIW, if recruiting rankings were all that mattered, and recruiting rankings were completely accurate, and if coaching has no impact, here is what the order of teams should be, based on composite recruiting rankings from 2012-2016:

Predicted from Recruiting
Tier 1: Toledo, WMU
Tier 2: BG, NIU, Miami
Tier 3: Ohio, CMU, Ball State
Tier 4: Kent, EMU, Akron, Buffalo

Current Actual
Tier 1: WMU (same), Toledo (same)
Tier 2: CMU (+1 Tier), Ohio (+1 Tier), Akron (+2 Tiers)
Tier 3: NIU (-1 Tier), Ball St, Miami (-1 Tier)
Tier 4: Kent St, EMU, BG (-2 Tiers), Buffalo

In actual performance, that's where many teams are, which shows that the recruiting rankings are not totally wrong. Five teams aren't where the recruiting rankings predict, and in most cases I'd attribute that to coaching:
Akron - significantly better, one reason is their ranking is wrong because they
rely on so many transfers, and transfers never get counted in recruiting rankings
Ohio, CMU - somewhat better than predicted
NIU - lower, presumably due to injuries
Miami - lower than you'd expect, presumably because they suck
BG - way lower than you'd expect

Note also that if you just look at the last three years, the recruiting order shows that Ohio is moving up, just not as fast as we'd like:
Tier 1+: WMU, way, way out front
Tier 2: Toledo, NIU, Ohio, Miami
Tier 3: Ball St, Buffalo, BG
Tier 4: CMU, EMU, Kent, Akron

Last Edited: 10/4/2016 12:19:05 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

UpSan Bobcat
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/6/2016 7:42:48 PM

According to the Sagarin ratings, appropriate tiers would be:
Tier 1: Western Michigan (24), Toledo (39)
Tier 2: Central Michigan (90), Ohio (94), Akron (98), Northern Illinois (104), Ball State (105)
Tier 3: Miami (136), Kent State (138), Eastern Michigan (139), Bowling Green (146), Buffalo (149)

And actually, if you wanted to add a tier, you probably could reasonably put in a tier between 1 and 2 that no teams are in. That's how far ahead Western Michigan and Toledo are of everyone else.

Last Edited: 10/6/2016 7:45:39 PM by UpSan Bobcat

C Money
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/9/2016 1:56:03 PM

Sagarin ratings through week 6:

28 Western Michigan - Rating = 80.63
43 Toledo - Rating = 76.54
86 Central Michigan - Rating = 63.96
95 Akron - Rating = 63.30
97 Ohio - Rating = 62.95
100 Northern Illinois - Rating = 60.53
101 Ball State - Rating = 60.27
126 Kent State - Rating = 55.10
136 Eastern Michigan - Rating = 52.78
144 Bowling Green - Rating = 51.35
149 Miami-Ohio - Rating = 50.73
171 Buffalo - Rating = 46.47

Buffalo has nosedived, EMU still getting no love from Sagarin, and with Houston's loss WMU has a shot at a NY6 bowl if they keep winning and Boise stumbles.

Casper71
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/9/2016 5:57:33 PM

I just dream of Solich with Fleck type personnel. I still cannot understand why a guy who coached in a National Championship game simply can't get MORE and BETTER players to Athens. Either it is not in his DNA to go after top talent or there really are some "structural" problems in athens...no malls, etc. Haha!

Mike Johnson
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/9/2016 6:13:15 PM

Casper71 wrote:

It is easy to say that recruiting to Ohio and Athens is a challenge. Could be. And then I think of certain other schools and locales.
* Central Michigan and Mt.Pleasant. 110 miles north of Detroit. Population 26,000. COLD winters. Unimpressive stadium. Plays in 'shadows' of Michigan and Michigan State. Chips have played some good football for decades.
* Oxford, Ohio. I'll let you cite the challenges.
* Kalamazoo. Ever been there? Want to go back? 100 miles west of Detroit. What will happen to program post Fleck?
* DeKalb. 60 miles west of Chicago. Population 35,000. NIU has been doing okay with recruiting.

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colobobcat66
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/9/2016 6:41:41 PM

Casper71 wrote:

Balderdash. Ohio makes offers to dozens of 3-5 star guys. We just don't get many of them. Looking at the recruiting list for 2017, this site shows 47 recruits who we offered who have already committed to P-5 schools. So don't say that we don't "go after" top talent.

I would guess that recruits look at lots of things including head and position coaches, tradition, league affiliation, visibility, quality of facilities, quality of education, playing time available, offensive and defer defensive styles, etc
Frank coached in a national championship game, but that was a long time ago and he lost. He came to Ohio as a 61 year old or so. Frank is presently the second oldest coach in the FBS. Young kids may not be able to identify with someone that old. For those recruits who like Frank, they still have to wonder how much longer he will continue coaching.

Last Edited: 10/9/2016 6:55:15 PM by colobobcat66

OhioCatFan
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/9/2016 6:59:08 PM

Casper71 wrote:

I just dream of Solich with Fleck type personnel. . . .

I'd rather have a Fleck with a Solich-type personality! I simply can't stand looking at the guy's antics on the sidelines and other places. Now, I"m not an 17-year-old recruit, either. If that's what floats their boats, OK, but it's not something that appeals to me.

Last Edited: 10/9/2016 7:00:20 PM by OhioCatFan

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OhioCatFan
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/9/2016 6:59:46 PM

deleted due to poor editing skills.

Last Edited: 10/9/2016 7:00:53 PM by OhioCatFan

GoCats105
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/10/2016 9:02:35 AM

OhioCatFan wrote:

Casper71 wrote:

I just dream of Solich with Fleck type personnel. . . .

So just because a guy shows some charisma and some fire on the sidelines that means you don't like his personality because of his "antics?" Maybe that's what kids want to see. A guy who is going to go to bat for them. A guy who is going to be as excited to be there as they are.

I think there's a reason that top level recruits don't want to play here and it doesn't have anything to do with Athens, the school or the facilities. It doesn't even necessarily have to do with the coach Solich.

GoCats105
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/10/2016 9:04:38 AM

colobobcat66 wrote:

Casper71 wrote:

This. 100%

Just look at the final years of Joe Paterno, Frank Beamer and Bobby Bowden. Maybe kids just aren't excited to play with or for guys who can't relate to them at all. How do they know when Solich's last season might be? Is he on his way out? Who comes in after him? So many questions.

Mark Lembright '85
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/10/2016 9:30:28 AM

OhioCatFan wrote:

Casper71 wrote:

I just dream of Solich with Fleck type personnel. . . .

I think we do have a Fleck with a Solich-type personality (but a little more outgoing than Solich); he just happens to coach the Men's' basketball team.

Last Edited: 10/10/2016 9:30:57 AM by Mark Lembright '85

Bcat2
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RE: WMU class of the MAC So Far?

Posted: 10/10/2016 10:12:10 AM

OhioCatFan wrote:

Casper71 wrote:

I just dream of Solich with Fleck type personnel. . . .

Is there a problem with the players who have chosen Ohio? Basham, Sayles, Laseak, Poling, Brown, Papi, A.J., Dorian Brown, Mangen, Smith, Reid, Cope, Hagan, Irons, Moore, Pruehs, Lowery, Wood, McCray, Cooper, Farkas, Aloese, Strobel, Watson, Hale, Williams, Howell, Zervos, Davis, Hardy. I have read as much as I can find on these young men and I don't see a problem.

Last Edited: 10/10/2016 10:13:12 AM by Bcat2

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

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