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Topic:  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits

Topic:  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits
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akroncat
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits
   Posted: 2/6/2017 11:42:24 AM 
Monroe, you are a real dreamer if you think Sabin could win national titles at Vanderbilt. The admission standards would keep out the majority of the players he recruits to Alabama. Ask Stanford and Notre Dame how tough it is too recruit the 5 star athletes with the Alabamas and Ohio States out there.
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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits
   Posted: 2/6/2017 12:42:59 PM 
Monroe Slavin wrote:
Monroe Slavin wrote:
Solich has been here 12 years. How long does it take to build a foundation?

Starting with the last six games of 2012 (when it turned after a 7-0 start), we're 31-27 with the full seasons having 6, 6, 5, and 6 losses.




Sorry; had to repeat so that it might..just maybe..sink in to the minds of the SFB.




No one is denying that the team has had a little downturn in recent years. The question is whether or not that will continue, or whether the recruiting has gotten better in the last few years and that this will lead to better records in the future. Some of us think that it will. You think that it won't. We get that. BTW, how do you think Solich would have done coaching Alabama?

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits
   Posted: 2/6/2017 2:29:18 PM 
akroncat wrote:
Monroe, you are a real dreamer if you think Sabin could win national titles at Vanderbilt. The admission standards would keep out the majority of the players he recruits to Alabama. Ask Stanford and Notre Dame how tough it is too recruit the 5 star athletes with the Alabamas and Ohio States out there.

I don't know how it is at Vandy today, but the 'dores had a way around the admissions issue. They had an affiliation with another school, Peabody Teacher's College, that was across 21st Avenue from them, and had a beautiful campus, but lower admissions standards. Football players were generally admitted to Peabody, but because of the affiliation, could play for Vandy. They may have fully absorbed Peabody by now, but I'm sure they still have a way around the admissions issue.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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allen
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits
   Posted: 2/6/2017 10:53:58 PM 
L.C. wrote:
akroncat wrote:
Monroe, you are a real dreamer if you think Sabin could win national titles at Vanderbilt. The admission standards would keep out the majority of the players he recruits to Alabama. Ask Stanford and Notre Dame how tough it is too recruit the 5 star athletes with the Alabamas and Ohio States out there.

I don't know how it is at Vandy today, but the 'dores had a way around the admissions issue. They had an affiliation with another school, Peabody Teacher's College, that was across 21st Avenue from them, and had a beautiful campus, but lower admissions standards. Football players were generally admitted to Peabody, but because of the affiliation, could play for Vandy. They may have fully absorbed Peabody by now, but I'm sure they still have a way around the admissions issue.


Vanderbilt, Duke, Stanford and Northwestern have rigorous academic standards. It is hard for them to get a class of four and fivestar athletes.

Last Edited: 2/6/2017 11:35:43 PM by allen

Nobody despises to lose more than I do. That's got me into trouble over the years, but it also made a man of mediocre ability into a pretty good coach. Woody Hayes
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Buckeye to Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits
   Posted: 2/6/2017 11:37:52 PM 
allen wrote:
L.C. wrote:
akroncat wrote:
Monroe, you are a real dreamer if you think Sabin could win national titles at Vanderbilt. The admission standards would keep out the majority of the players he recruits to Alabama. Ask Stanford and Notre Dame how tough it is too recruit the 5 star athletes with the Alabamas and Ohio States out there.

I don't know how it is at Vandy today, but the 'dores had a way around the admissions issue. They had an affiliation with another school, Peabody Teacher's College, that was across 21st Avenue from them, and had a beautiful campus, but lower admissions standards. Football players were generally admitted to Peabody, but because of the affiliation, could play for Vandy. They may have fully absorbed Peabody by now, but I'm sure they still have a way around the admissions issue.


Vanderbilt, Duke, Stanford and Northwestern have rigorous academic standards. It is hard for them to get a class of four and fivestar athletes.


Apparently Duke Basketball does a-okay
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allen
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits
   Posted: 2/7/2017 4:10:53 AM 
yes they do in Basketball. They only have to find 3-5 players per year for basketball.

Nobody despises to lose more than I do. That's got me into trouble over the years, but it also made a man of mediocre ability into a pretty good coach. Woody Hayes
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Monroe Slavin
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits
   Posted: 2/7/2017 8:40:45 PM 
All these MAC schools hauling in 3-star guys this year. Is this better recruiting or 'star inflation'?

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits
   Posted: 2/7/2017 10:31:35 PM 
Monroe Slavin wrote:
All these MAC schools hauling in 3-star guys this year. Is this better recruiting or 'star inflation'?

Maybe some of both. 247Sports tends to give out more 3-stars than other services. For the MAC as a whole the numbers by year have been:
2012 69
2013 64
2014 64
2015 101
2016 81
2017 96

Part of the jump in 2015-7 is related to better recruiting by WMU, and the rest may be inflation.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits
   Posted: 2/7/2017 10:51:21 PM 
Since we all want more 3-start recruits, let's look at a few years of prior Ohio recruiting, and compare the 3-star recruits to other recruits for the same year. Before I do, let me mention that the prior 6 years combined, the MAC has had 2 consensus 4-star recruits. One was Rodney Adams, a Toledo recruit for 2013. He never played a down for Toledo, and quickly transferred to USF, where he has been a starter. The other was Kendrell Mcfadden, a 2015 recruit for Miami. He has yet to play a down for them, so far as I can tell.

Now, let's look at Ohio's 2013 recruits:
3-star recruits: Murdock, Wyatt, and Quallen - Of these, only Quallen has ever played a down for Ohio. He moved from Safety, and is a backup linebacker.
High 2-star recruits: Morgan, D. Brown, C. Brown, Porter, Sayles, Alexander
Low 2-star recruits: J. Brown, Aloese, McLeod
Unrated: Poling, Leavitt, Smart, Mangen, Basham, Wood, Cope

If you give 5 points for a player with all-MAC honors, 4 for a starter, 3 points for a second team player, 2 for an occasional player, and 1 for a player that never played, and ignore non-qualifiers, you find this:
3-star players: 1,1,2 (average 1.33)
high 2-star players: 3,3,1,3,5,1 (average 2.67)
low 2-star players: 3, 3, 4 (average 3.33)
unrated players: 5, na, 3, 4, 5, 4, 4 (average 4.16)

For 2013 the quality of the recruits was inversely correlated to the rating. I'll do 2014 when I get a chance, but I expect it's the same. Beware taking stars too seriously.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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cincybobcat99
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits
   Posted: 2/8/2017 9:57:05 AM 
L.C. wrote:
Before I do, let me mention that the prior 6 years combined, the MAC has had 2 consensus 4-star recruits. One was Rodney Adams, a Toledo recruit for 2013. He never played a down for Toledo, and quickly transferred to USF, where he has been a starter. The other was Kendrell Mcfadden, a 2015 recruit for Miami. He has yet to play a down for them, so far as I can tell.


Wasn't Roger Lewis a 4-star recruit? I seem to remember Ohio being on him when Ohio State dropped him, then he ended up at Bowling Green, where he burned us.
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UpSan Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits
   Posted: 2/8/2017 10:29:11 AM 
cincybobcat99 wrote:
L.C. wrote:
Before I do, let me mention that the prior 6 years combined, the MAC has had 2 consensus 4-star recruits. One was Rodney Adams, a Toledo recruit for 2013. He never played a down for Toledo, and quickly transferred to USF, where he has been a starter. The other was Kendrell Mcfadden, a 2015 recruit for Miami. He has yet to play a down for them, so far as I can tell.


Wasn't Roger Lewis a 4-star recruit? I seem to remember Ohio being on him when Ohio State dropped him, then he ended up at Bowling Green, where he burned us.



He was considered 4 stars by Scout and Rivals and 3 stars by ESPN. I believe 247Sports originally had him as a high 3 star and then downgraded him after his legal issues.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits
   Posted: 2/8/2017 11:48:18 AM 
I thought that Lewis was 3-stars. The guy I thought was 4-stars was Broagan Roback, the EMU QB, but he doesn't show that way.

Now, lets go back to the 2012 class:
3-star recruits: S. Smith, T. Clark, M. Roberts, C. Murray, Tanner, Windham
High 2-star recruits: Schany, Laseak, Wells, Edmond, Gibbons
Low 2-star recruits: Patterson, Watson, Waters, Branz, J. Brown, Stewart
Unrated: B. Brown, Reid, Rodriguez, Henry, Davis

Now let's score them. This isn't the best class to score because so many players were no shows, or were hurt early in their career before we found out what they could do. I'm going to drop the ones with early injuries from the math,
If you give 5 points for a player with all-MAC honors, 4 for a starter, 3 points for a second team player, 2 for an occasional player, and 1 for a player that never played, and ignore non-qualifiers, you find this:
3-star players: 5,na, na, na, na, inj, 4 (average 4.50)
high 2-star players: inj, 4, 3, 2, 3 (average 3.00)
low 2-star players: 4, 4, 4, 5, 3, 3 (average 3.83)
unrated players: 5, 4, 1, inj, 4 (average 3.50)

For 2012 the two 3 star players that actually enrolled, and who didn't get hurt early turned out OK. On the whole, though, there is not really any statistically significant correlation between predicted performance and actual performance.

What about 2014? These players haven't finished their careers, so before the year is out, these could change, but here is a preliminary look:
3-star recruits: Duckworth, McCray, Lowery, Walker
High 2-star recruits: C. Brown, Dudziak, C. Brunson, Kuhar
Low 2-star recruits: Meyer, Berger, Boland, Pruehs, Langenkamp, Fox, T. Jones, DiCillo, Brumfield, Brunis, P. White
Unrated: C. Washington, Nelson, Bonnstetter, Irons, Layton

Scoring them from memory:
3-star: 1, 4, 4, 3 (Average 3.00)
High 2-star: 2, 1, 3, 1 (Average 2.50)
Low 2-star: 3, 3, 4, 5, 1, 3, na, inj, na, 3, 3 (Average 3.13)
Unrated: na, 4, 5, 3, 4 (Average 4.00)

If I made a mistake scoring any players, please feel free to correct me. In particular I can't remember who was all-Mac, and who wasn't. In any case, it now looks like this:
2012 - No real correlation
2013 - Strong inverse correlation
2014 - Slight inverst correlation

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits
   Posted: 2/8/2017 12:07:55 PM 
Since these are all small samples, let's pool them to get a little bigger sample.
For 2012-2014:
3-stars: 1 All-Mac, 3 other starters from 9 players, average 2.8 (even after dropping all the non-qualifiers)
High 2: 1 All-Mac, 1 other starter from 14 players, average 2.5
Low 2: 2 All-Mac, 5 other starters from 17 players, average 3.4
Unrated: 4 All-Mac, 7 other starters from 14 players, average 3.9

Wow! Nice, clear inverse correlation. Here is a complete list of the unrated players from 2012-2014:

All-Mac Caliber: Basham, Poling, B. Brown, Bonnsteter
Starters: Mangen, Wood, Cope, Reid, T. Davis, Layton, Nelson
Backups (after 2017 they may be starters): Smart, Irons
Hasn't played: Rodriguez
Injured early in career: Henry
Non-qualifiers: C. Washington, Leavitt (after Juco, had Alabama offer, now at Kentucky)

Is anyone afraid of unrated players now? Again, for 2017, that would be Cox, Ross, Rourke, Ogun-Semore, and Floyd for sure, and probably also should include Meservy, and Watkins, too. Let's hope this group of unrated players is as good as the ones that preceded them.

Last Edited: 2/8/2017 12:10:41 PM by L.C.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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allen
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits
   Posted: 2/8/2017 12:09:20 PM 
Roback was 4 stars by Rivals. https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/26050

Last Edited: 2/8/2017 12:15:08 PM by allen

Nobody despises to lose more than I do. That's got me into trouble over the years, but it also made a man of mediocre ability into a pretty good coach. Woody Hayes
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits
   Posted: 2/8/2017 2:00:10 PM 
I know some people no doubt wonder "How is it possible that unranked players can be better than 3-star players? Surely this is a fluke?" No it's not a fluke, and in fact it's not even surprising. Yes, taken as a group 3-star athletes are better than 2-star athletes, and 2 star athletes, as a group, are better than unranked players. Players, however, are not fungible. Furthermore, the law of large numbers doesn't apply here.

On the 3-star end, the "best" of the 3-star group is hand-picked by the P5 powers to fill the spaces where they can't get 4-5 star players. Even Alabama has 7 "3-star" recruits in their class. Presumably the 3-star players available to the MAC are the worst of the 3-star recruits. That's why I like to see competitive offers from good schools more than I like to see stars.

At the unranked end, we're talking about a small number of players hand-selected from the group of "unrated players", not a bunch or random unrated players. Given that they in the past have selected some very good players, it seems they know what they are looking for.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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allen
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits
   Posted: 2/8/2017 2:21:48 PM 
Hey, I don't doubt it. I love this class. The only thing we are missing is a tight end. Kaim Caesar at 275 pounds will make a great DT or OT in a year or two, Coleman at DT is great. The DE's look good. TJ is an enforcer at linebacker. The db's are very skilled and fast. The wide outs are smart and fast. Minter and Cherry can be used for trick plays since they are former qb's. The QB's are better than what he have and our running back ran a 10.5 100 meter and was the player of the year in his city.

Nobody despises to lose more than I do. That's got me into trouble over the years, but it also made a man of mediocre ability into a pretty good coach. Woody Hayes
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Robert Fox
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits
   Posted: 2/8/2017 3:17:41 PM 
Great stuff, LC. Thanks. You're providing analysis of stuff I've never considered. And it makes sense. Therefore I expect many to attack you and disregard your research as so much bunk.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits
   Posted: 2/8/2017 7:31:12 PM 
allen wrote:
... Minter and Cherry can be used for trick plays since they are former qb's.

Cope and Meyer are as well, as was Mario Dowell, a few years ago.

Robert, if they doubt my point, they can run the numbers themselves. Every recruiting year it's about the same.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Monroe Slavin
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits
   Posted: 2/8/2017 8:48:54 PM 
Results on field, please.

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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits
   Posted: 2/9/2017 12:08:02 PM 
L.C. wrote:
. . . At the unranked end, we're talking about a small number of players hand-selected from the group of "unrated players", not a bunch or random unrated players. Given that they in the past have selected some very good players, it seems they know what they are looking for.


This reminds me, in a recent interview Frank said that while they look at the rating services' rankings, they have their own internal star ranking system. I think it's high time that WikiBALeaks hacks Solich's computer and publishes these rankings. ;-)

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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Valley Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits
   Posted: 6/12/2017 6:38:19 PM 
Looks like the team is coming together for Summer workouts. Any idea if the whole class made it in?
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colobobcat66
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits
   Posted: 10/4/2017 10:46:18 AM 
Just took a look at the 2017 class and see that none of the 9 3 star guys (247 sports) has played, but the bottom two rated of all signees have played-Ross and Meservy. And Rourke as a 2 star has excelled so far. Looks like the inverse relationship that LC refers to is in effect as usual.

Of course, the total career results are too soon to determine, but these guys have an early start.

Last Edited: 10/4/2017 10:49:15 AM by colobobcat66
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Doc Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2017 Ohio Football Commits
   Posted: 10/4/2017 10:50:32 AM 
colobobcat66 wrote:
Just took a look at the 2017 class and see that none of the 9 3 star guys (247 sports) has played, but the bottom two rated of all signees have played-Ross and Meservy. And Rourke as a 2 star has excelled so far. Looks like the inverse relationship that LC refers to is in effect as usual.


Which makes this class really good.

Also 300 pound DT Coleman was left off that list.

Walk ons look like some of them will also eventually get a scholly.
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