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Topic: RE: Delusional

Topic: RE: Delusional

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Mark Lembright '85
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RE: Delusional

Posted: 1/10/2015 9:20:28 PM

Interestingly enough, for all the handwringing that goes on this board about how poorly the football team did this year, they will probably have a better record than the Men's b-ball team.

OhioCatFan
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RE: Delusional

Posted: 1/10/2015 10:05:49 PM

Mark Lembright '85 wrote:

Interestingly enough, for all the handwringing that goes on this board about how poorly the football team did this year, they will probably have a better record than the Men's b-ball team.

Yes, and our hotshot young coach has yet to run the swinging gate offense, the statue of liberty play, or the fumbleruskie play.

Let me add that I agree essentially with the last two or three posts by L.C. as to his expectation for next year. I will be very surprised if we don't win at least eight games. Two young players that I look to make great contributions next year are Cope and Irons. There are two September games that I think may be harbingers of the rest of the season -- Marshall and Minnesota. Win one, and I think we'll have a very good season. Win both, and we might have a legendary season to remember. Lose both, and we may struggle, though many of Frank's teams have shown in-season improvement, so we still could surprise folks in the MAC.

Some of us still remember the excitement of the 2012 season where we started with a win over Penn State and won seven straight until the Brain Fart at Miami. I see no reason not to expect that kind of excitement again in the next year or two. Hopefully we can avoid another BFM or equivalent and the number of injuries that plagued us then. Go OHIO!

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

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Monroe Slavin
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RE: Delusional

Posted: 1/11/2015 1:29:22 AM

L.C. wrote:

Monroe Slavin wrote:

...
We have OHIO at 15-16 over the last 31 against some of the worst teams in football, no MAC title in 45 years and a staff that's 10 years without a MAC title....

So, go on. Keep enabling it. Keep being satisfied with the status of our program over the most recent 2.5 years.

Sure, it's gonna change next year. Sure it is.

Obviously my opinions are very different from yours. They start with different goals. For you, it seems that the goal is a MAC Championship at any cost. Perhaps, having rooted for teams that won not only league Championships, but also National Championships, but also for teams that never won any games at all, my perspective is different than most people's.

Over the years I have learned first and foremost to separate my personal accomplishments from those of teams I root for. I understand why each team wants to win, to reach their personal goals, and as a fan, I hope they do that. Nevertheless I have learned over the years that you can have fun even on days when your team loses. I have also learned that, when a team does achieve it's goal, whether it's a league championship, or a higher one, the next day you are back to square one, with new goals for the following year, and zero wins.

As a result, for me the most important goal is a team that plays with desire, that gives it's all, and makes me proud to be a fan because of their behavior both on and off the field. Ohio had some rough times back in the 2006 timeframe, and has had a few incidents over the years since then, but on the whole, I can most assuredly say that I've been proud to be a Bobcat fan these last ten years.

Next, let's turn to this period that troubles you, the last 31 games. First, let's talk about things it could be. Is it that Solich is old? Has he lost his fire? Has his energy level dropped? Is he getting senile? Based on comments from media people, both radio and print, the answers to all these are negative. Comments usually talk about his fire, energy level, and continue burning desire to win.

Now let's turn to the known reasons, things there is no one that questions:
1. No one disputes that the 2010 recruiting class did not turn out to be a good one. It was depleted by no-shows (Ashley), people that left due to off-the-field issues (Kozak), people that were lost due to career ending injury (Smith, Dietz), people that left for other reasons (Atwell, Jones, Stefanski, Morales, Snyder, Tarrant), and in the end you were left with Carpenter, Kristoff, Cochran, and Ingol. I don't mean any disrespect to them, but 4 people isn't much of a class.

The result of having a hole in your recruiting is a weakness 3-5 years later, which would be 2012-2014. Could that be a part of the problems over the last 31 games? It seems like it.

2. No one disputes that there was an amazing number of injuries in 2012. A few are normal, but when you have the massive numbers Ohio had in 2012, it casts a long shadow that can last for several years, especially since many will re-injure themselves the following year. A few positions in particular were very effected:
A. Offensive Line - At RT, losses of McGrath (late 2012, much of 2013) and Dietz (would have played 2012-2014) pushed reshirt Freshman Watson into a starting role. At RG, loss of Sam Johnson (late 2012 and virtually all of 2013), then Wood (2014) and Gibbons (2013, 2014) pushed Pruehs into a start as a true Freshman. at LG, injuries to Carlotta (late 2012), Smith (2012-2014), and Lechner (late 2012, much of 2013) pushed McQueen into starting as a redshirt Freshman, then M. Lucas as a redshirt Freshman. Center was more normal, with an orderly succession from Allen to Powell. At LT periodic injures to Prior (part of 2012, 2013) moved McQueen to LT. On the whole the offensive line, because of all these injuries, has been very young from 2012-2014, and that has significantly reduced offensive output.

B. Tight End - This position has, more than any other, been severely hurt by the injuries of 2012. Thompson was lost for late 2012. Robak, who would most likely have been a starter for 2013-2014 was also lost. Next behind them was probably Tanner, who would most likely have played 2013-2015, but his career ended before it ever started, with shoulder injuries in 2012 and again in 2013. Next man up was Davon Henry, who also had shoulder injuries in 2012 and 2013. And what about Tyler Knight? Was he ever able to play? Troy Hill was next, and did play well in 2013, until he was hurt. Because of all the injuries, they brought in two graduate transfers in 2013, Anthony Talbert and Alex Asher, but only Talbert was able to play. That brought Ohio down to true Freshman Mangen, who played well for as young as he was. For 2014, they brought in a JUCO, Boland, who ended up sitting 2014 due to injury. The shadow of those 2012 injuries at TE has been very long, and is still affecting things even today. Next year Ohio should hopefully be out of that shadow. Hopefully there will be some healthy upperclassmen at TE, in Mangen, Boland and Henry, and a Redshirt Sophomore, Morgan, but certainly the last few years have been a struggle.

C. Defensive line - The bulk of what had been a very good defensive line missed the last half of 2012. Carl Jones (DT), Neal Huynh (NG), and Tremayne Scott (DE) all missed the end of 2012, but were able to play against Monroe in the bowl, and it made a huge difference. Those injuries, back in 2012, will have one last effect, in 2015. Because of those injuries, true Freshman Crutcher was called from his redshirt year. He wasn't really ready to play, but was needed anyway. Without those injuries, he'd be a returning starter/5th year Senior next fall, and would give Ohio a very solid NG.

D. DB - Losses of Carrie, Hughes, and Shaw gave Ohio a totally different backfield in 2012 than expected, Wells/Fisher/Bass at corner, and Kristoff at Safety. Add in injuries to Wells and Scipio in 2013, and an off-the-field incident involving Fisher, plus periodic injures in 2014 to Jones, Scipio, Wells, Kristoff, Carpenter, and Ingol, and that also hindered the defensive backfield in recent years.

A few injuries are normal, but when you look at the extent of the injuries, especially in a few positions, does it seem possible that the injuries of 2012 cast a long shadow over 2012-2014? It certainly seems like it to me.

3. Cyclical strength - There were some unusually good recruits in 2008-2009, and when those players left in 2011-2012, a downturn of sorts would be expected. Some of those players were Gerald Moore, Tremayne Scott, Jordan Thompson, Eric Herman, Neal Huynh, Alphonso Lewis, Vince Carlotta, Tyler Futrell, Travis Carrie, Matt Weller, Jon Lechner, Xavier Hughes, Tyler Tettleton, Jelani Woseley, Skyler Allen, Mario Dovell, Carl Jones, Beau Blankenship, Ryan Boykin, Donte Foster, and Ryan McGrath. Even in the absence of the factors I listed in 1 and 2, would there have been a downturn in 2014? Probably.

4. Internal issues in 2013 - From interviews with various players and coaches we know that there were internal issues with the team in 2013. Those sorts of things crop up sometimes. The fact that the coincided with the factors I listed in 1-3 is probably not a coincidence. When a team is doing well, internal issues are usually glossed over, but when a team is struggling, sometimes problems from internal issues get amplified. Did this contribute to the downturn in 2013? It seems to have, for sure. Was the problem eliminated in 2014? It seems to have been eliminated. There was no evidence from player interviews, coach interviews, or from the play of the team that these problems continued. Mostly the weakness in 2014 seem to have been from factors 1-3.

So, we have 4 known factors that no one disputes that would have reduced results from mid-2012 until 2014. Do any of these factors continue to be problems? Well, #1 was a temporary thing, affecting only the 2010 class. Solich said that the 2013 class was his best yet at Ohio, then said 2014 was even better, and 2015 also looks pretty good. The long shadow of all those injuries is mostly gone, except that we could use Crutcher another year, and there is still quite a bit of depletion at TE. #3 is behind us, as is #4.

That brings us back to Monroe's statement:

Monroe Slavin wrote:

...Sure, it's gonna change next year. Sure it is.

Is it going to change in 2015? I wholeheartedly agree with Monroe here. I absolutely don't see any reason for it to change from the past, other than some slight changes for the better with those problems out of the way.

The fact is that ever since Solich got by his first 4 years, Ohio has on average finished 2d in the East, finishing 1st twice, 2d twice, and 3rd twice, and that includes the period with the problems I listed above. With those problems out of the way, and with some excellent recruiting classes coming into there prime in the next few years, why would anyone think things will change, and that Ohio will get worse? In my opinion, you'd have to be delusional to think that Ohio won't be competing for MAC East titles and MAC Championships in the next few years.

Keep accepting excuses and prolonged mediocrity.

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The Optimist
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RE: Delusional

Posted: 1/11/2015 9:02:36 AM

OhioCatFan wrote:

Some of us still remember the excitement of the 2012 season where we started with a win over Penn State and won seven straight until the Brain Fart at Miami. I see no reason not to expect that kind of excitement again in the next year or two. Hopefully we can avoid another BFM or equivalent and the number of injuries that plagued us then. Go OHIO!

BINGO.

When I think of accepting mediocrity, I think of the pre-Frank error in the 70's and 80's and 90's.

Our program is moving in the right direction. If you cannot see that, you are delusional.

I've seen crazier things happen.

bobcatsquared
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RE: Delusional

Posted: 1/11/2015 10:11:53 AM

pre-Frank "error" or "era"?

Either one works, no?

L.C.
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RE: Delusional

Posted: 1/11/2015 11:45:57 AM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

Keep accepting excuses and prolonged mediocrity.

In making that statement, you are essentially saying that you expect that the recent recruiting classes will turn out much the same as the 2010 class, and/or that you expect to continue to have 19-20 season ending injuries on a regular basis. There really isn't any other possible way to interpret your statement.

Your positions are inconsistent. On the one hand you argue that recruiting and coaching are important, yet you also argue that when, because of injury, you lose the best players that you recruited and coached, it shouldn't matter. So, which is it? Is it that recruiting is irrelevant, and all players are fungible? Or is the quality of player that you have important, in which case when you lose your best ones to injury, it matters?

Paul Graham wrote:

LC, if the team fails to beat above average MAC teams (next year it's: BG, NIU, WMU or BSU) for the fourth year in a row, how will this impact your analysis of the state of the program?

To answer your question another way, I believe Ohio will be roughly on a par with those four top MAC teams, and that the point spread in all games will be <5. As a result, I will round it and call it a 50:50 chance whether they win any specific game. Doing the math, that means there is a (1/2)^4 (6%) chance they win all 4, and a 6% chance they lose all 4. It also means a 25% chance of winning 1, and a 25% chance of winning 3, and a 37% chance of winning 2.

I think that if they win 3-4, they will win the MAC East, if they win 1-2, they will finish 2d, and if they lose all 4, they will be third. That means I see:
First place - 31% chance
Second - 63% chance
Third - 6% chance

Last Edited: 1/11/2015 4:26:53 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

BillyTheCat
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RE: Delusional

Posted: 1/11/2015 1:28:02 PM

bobcatsquared wrote:

pre-Frank "error" or "era"?

Either one works, no?

You cannot count the Grobe era, the MAC was much tougher then and you did not get a Bowl Game with 7 or even 10 wins back then unless you won the league.

The Optimist
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RE: Delusional

Posted: 1/11/2015 3:14:56 PM

Heh, totally intended to do that!

I've seen crazier things happen.

Paul Graham
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RE: Delusional

Posted: 1/11/2015 4:28:02 PM

L.C. wrote:

Paul Graham wrote:

LC, if the team fails to beat above average MAC teams (next year it's: BG, NIU, WMU or BSU) for the fourth year in a row, how will this impact your analysis of the state of the program?

My preliminary analysis tells me that the "above average MAC teams" next year will be Toledo, WMU, NIU, and Ball State in the West, and Ohio, BG, and U.Mass in the East. Ohio will have 4 of these "above average MAC teams" on the schedule, two at home (WMU, Ball State) and two on the road (BG, NIU). If Ohio is where I expect, I believe they will win about 2 of them.

If they win 3, they will most likely be in the MACC. If they win 2, they might be, depending on which two they beat, and how other games play out. If they win only 1, then it will most likely be another 2d in the East for them, and I will be slightly disappointed, though if they win one, but are competitive in the other 3, I won't have any complaints.

If they lose all four, then I will be very surprised. Also, if they are blown out in any of the four, I also will be very surprised, at least, unless it is the result of some unusual spurt of turnovers or injuries. We'll cross that bridge, should it come, but yes, if I those things happen, and especially if they should happen without some obvious explanation, I will wonder why they are not where I think they should be.

In the meantime, I'm going to stick with an expectation of history repeating itself. When a very large and significant graduating class left in 2006, there was an off period, but then things were back on track, and they came back better than ever. I expect that again.

I will hold you to that :)

I think we'll be improved next year...the big question is if we can move the ball and keep pace with teams like WMU and BG. I don't think we can, so I expect the best we can do is win 2. The NIU and BSU games are winnable but as of today we wouldn't be favored in either.

So I'm guessing we win 1, but I wouldn't be surprised to see us steal another one...or lose all 4.

Last Edited: 1/11/2015 4:28:33 PM by Paul Graham

L.C.
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RE: Delusional

Posted: 1/11/2015 4:51:07 PM

Paul Graham wrote:

No problem, I expect to be held to it. Feel free to bring this thread back if they do lose all 4.

I think Ohio will move the ball, not at a BG pace, but they will move it well enough to keep it away from BG, and I think the defense will be very good again next year. Much depends on how effectively they replace Crutcher and McLeod. The good news is that since they don't seem to be recruiting a JUCO DT, they seem to be confident in the players we have.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Alan Swank
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RE: Delusional

Posted: 1/11/2015 6:35:35 PM

BillyTheCat wrote:

bobcatsquared wrote:

pre-Frank "error" or "era"?

Either one works, no?

You cannot count the Grobe era, the MAC was much tougher then and you did not get a Bowl Game with 7 or even 10 wins back then unless you won the league.

This is pretty accurate. Kind of like selling Microsoft against girl scout cookies.

L.C.
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RE: Delusional

Posted: 1/11/2015 8:59:41 PM

Alan Swank wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

bobcatsquared wrote:

pre-Frank "error" or "era"?

Either one works, no?

You cannot count the Grobe era, the MAC was much tougher then and you did not get a Bowl Game with 7 or even 10 wins back then unless you won the league.

This is pretty accurate. Kind of like selling Microsoft against girl scout cookies.

I have heard this repeated often, and until now I sort of took it at face value. Today I decided to go back to the history book to see just how much better the MAC was back then. Here is what I found:

1996-2000 MAC overall record 303-371 .450
2011-2014 MAC overall record 305-335 .477

1996-2000 MAC versus P5 teams 13-73 .151
2011-2014 MAC versus p5 teams 14-80 .149

I don't see any evidence that the MAC was better back then. It looks about the same to me.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Mike Johnson
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RE: Delusional

Posted: 1/11/2015 10:33:25 PM

L.C. wrote:

Alan Swank wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

bobcatsquared wrote:

pre-Frank "error" or "era"?

Either one works, no?

You cannot count the Grobe era, the MAC was much tougher then and you did not get a Bowl Game with 7 or even 10 wins back then unless you won the league.

This is pretty accurate. Kind of like selling Microsoft against girl scout cookies.

Now see, that's the trouble with facts. They tend to elucidate. Tsk, tsk.

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Paul Graham
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RE: Delusional

Posted: 1/11/2015 10:46:01 PM

I can't say that the MAC was better then. Though I'm quite confident in saying that the MAC East was much better.

Just look at the MAC Champs by year to see that the East was the dominant division during the Grobe/Knorr years. Pruitt, Roethlisberger, Urban Meyer...

L.C.
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RE: Delusional

Posted: 1/11/2015 11:34:20 PM

One other thing that I noticed was that MAC strength was affected by additions. The MAC in the 90's became much stronger after Marshall was added, while the MAC of the present became much weaker when Temple was replaced by U.Mass. Marshall was 3-4 against P5 teams from 1997-2000, while U.Mass was 0-7 in 2013-14. Excluding those two teams:

MAC 1996-2000 except Marshall versus P5: 10-69 .127
MAC 2011-14 except U.Mass versus P5: 14-73 .161

In any case, I'm sure that the MAC of the Grobe era was stronger than the MAC of pre-1994, because it was in 1994 that the scholarship limit dropped to 85.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

BillyTheCat
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RE: Delusional

Posted: 1/12/2015 12:03:55 AM

We are judging OHIO's success by our bowl run, how many Bowls would we have by 1990's standards?

The Optimist
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RE: Delusional

Posted: 1/12/2015 7:22:11 AM

BillyTheCat wrote:

We are judging OHIO's success by our bowl run, how many Bowls would we have by 1990's standards?

How many national championships would the winner of tonight's game have by 1990's standards?

I've seen crazier things happen.

Andrew Ruck
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RE: Delusional

Posted: 1/12/2015 8:14:11 AM

Hey Monroe - Grrrr arrrrr nash rahhhhh stupid Bobcats frank suck grumble grumble mediocrity oof!

There you go.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

L.C.
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RE: Delusional

Posted: 1/12/2015 9:22:18 AM

BillyTheCat wrote:

We are judging OHIO's success by our bowl run, how many Bowls would we have by 1990's standards?

I agree that you can't compare the bowl run of today with the bowl situation in the 90s. The only thing that you can use the bowl run for is to compare it to what other G5 teams have done during the exact same time period. As I posted earlier, there are very few G5 teams that have been bowl eligible for each of the last 6 years.

To answer your question directly, I think that the 2009 and 2011 teams would have had a shot at a bowl bid at 9-4, though there is no guarantee they would have gotten one, given that Grobe's 1997 team did not get one at 8-3. The 2011 team had a flashy offense, and thus some media appeal, so I think it would have had the best shot.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

BillyTheCat
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RE: Delusional

Posted: 1/12/2015 7:06:42 PM

L.C. wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

We are judging OHIO's success by our bowl run, how many Bowls would we have by 1990's standards?

Tell that to a 10-1 Miami team with a Hall of Fame QB, who sat at home.

L.C.
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RE: Delusional

Posted: 1/12/2015 7:36:16 PM

BillyTheCat wrote:

Tell that to a 10-1 Miami team with a Hall of Fame QB, who sat at home.

Here are the G5 teams that went to bowls in that era:
1996 (7 teams, 3 Western, 1 CUSA, 1 MAC)
BYU 14-1 WAC
Utah 8-4 WAC
Nevada 9-3 Big West
Houston 7-5 CUSA
Ball State 8-4 MAC
Navy 9-3 Ind
Army 10-2 Ind

1997 (7 teams, 4 Western, 2 CUSA, 1 MAC)
Colorado St 11-2 WAC
Air Force 10-3 WAC
New Mexico 9-4 WAC
Utah State 6-6 Big West
S. Miss 9-3 CUSA
Cincinnati 8-4 CUSA
Marshall 10-3 MAC

1998 (9 teams, 5 Western, 3 CUSA, 1 MAC)
Air Force 12-1 WAC
BYU 9-5 WAC
TCU 7-5 WAC
San Diego St 7-5 WAC
Idaho 9-3 Big West
Tulane 12-0 CUSA
S. Miss 9-5 CUSA
Louisville 7-5 CUSA
Marshall 12-1 MAC

1999 (11 teams, 7 Western, 3 CUSA, 1 MAC)
Utah 9-3 MWC
Colorado St 8-4 MWC
BYU 8-4 MWC
Hawaii 9-4 WAC
TCU 8-4 WAC
Fresno St 8-5 WAC
Boise St 10-3 Big West
E. Carolina 9-3 CUSA
S. Miss 9-3 CUSA
Louisville 7-5 CUSA
Marshall 13-0 MAC

2000 (12 teams, 7 Western, 4 CUSA, 1 MAC)
Colorado State 10-2 MWC
Air Force 9-3 MWC
UNLV 8-5 MWC
TCU 10-2 WAC
UTEP 8-4 WAC
Fresno State 7-5 WAC
Boise St 10-2 Big West
Louisville 9-3 CUSA
S. Miss 8-4 CUSA
E. Carolina 8-4 CUSA
Cincinnati 7-5 CUSA
Marshall 8-5 MAC

Even during this time period you can see the expansion in bowls under way. The biggest jump was in the number of CUSA teams and western teams (MWC, WAC, Big West). I also notice that the MAC never had more than 1 team a year, presumably because they didn't draw much attendance. Since only the MAC Champion ever went to a bowl in this era, yes, Billy, Ohio would not have had a bowl game. I was just going based on my recollection of what kinds or records bowl teams had, rather than thinking about the negative stigma that that MAC apparently had at the time.

Last Edited: 1/12/2015 8:57:12 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

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