BobcatAttack.com - For Fans of Ohio University Sports

Welcome Guest!
Create an Account

site search

where to watch

about us

advertise with us

help

BobcatAttack.com Message Board

Ohio Football

Topic: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Topic: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Author

Message

The Situation
General User

Member Since: 7/12/2010
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 957

Status: Offline

College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/6/2014 12:17:41 PM

I spent my lunch break today chopping up data so I could better convey the message, THE SKY IS NOT FALLING!

I exported the college football score data from sport-reference.com from the year 2013. Using the magic of Excel I was able to cross-reference team wins and losses vs teams with winning records.

The results don't shock me; but they may shock some people who have lost confidence in the OHIO football program.

Last year OHIO won 2 out of 6 games against teams with a winning record.

But how did that accomplishment rank in the 2013 season?

Last year, winning 33% percent of games against teams with a winning record ranked OHIO 51 out of 123 teams. Winning 2 games against teams with a winning record ranked OHIO 46 out of 123 teams.

Teams with winning records but only one (1) win against teams with winning records (2013):

Fresno State, 12-2
Ball State, 10-3
Cincinnati, 9-4
San Diego State, 8-5
Arkansas State, 8-5
Boise State, 8-5
Buffalo, 8-5 (OHIO was their only win)
Western Kentucky 8-4
Maryland, 7-6
Kansas State, 8-5
Middle Tennessee State, 8-5
Michigan, 7-6
Texas Tech, 8-5

Teams winning records but zero (0) wins against teams with winning records (2013):

Colorado State, 8-6
Oregon State, 7-6
UNLV, 7-6

MAC and Friends 2013 Record vs. Teams with Winning Records:

NIU 3-1
BGSU 3-3
Marshall 3-4
Toledo 2-3
OHIO 2-4
Ball State 1-3
Buffalo 1-3 (OHIO was their only win)
CMU 1-5 (OHIO was their only win)
Kent 1-6 (OHIO was their only win)
Akron 1-6
Temple 0-5
WMU 0-6
EMU 0-7
UMass 0-7
Miami Sucks, 0-6

---------------------------------

Curiosity got the best of me,

2012 Results:

OHIO winning 40% percent of games against teams with a winning record ranked OHIO 40 out of 126 teams. Winning 2 games against teams with a winning record ranked OHIO 43 out of 126 teams.

Teams with winning records but only one (1) win against teams with winning records (2012):

Middle Tennessee State, 8-4
Bowling Green State, 8-5 (OHIO was their only win)
North Carolina State, 7-6
Central Michigan, 7-6
Mississippi State, 8-5
Western Kentucky, 7-6
Ole Miss, 7-6

Teams winning records but zero (0) wins against teams with winning records (2012):

UT-San Antonio, 8-4
Nevada, 7-6
East Carolina, 8-5

MAC and Friends 2012 record vs. teams with winning records:

NIU, 4-1
Kent State, 4-2
Penn State 3-3
Ball State 3-4
Toledo, 3-4
OHIO, 2-3
UL-Monroe, 2-4
WMU, 1-4
BGSU, 1-5 (OHIO was their only win)
CMU, 1-5
Marshall, 1-5
Miami, 1-7 (OHIO was their only win)
Akron, 0-7
Buffalo, 0-6
EMU, 0-8
UMass, 0-6
Temple, 0-5

--------------------------------

At this point I can just churn out the comparisons (aka I got no work done today):

2011 Results:

OHIO winning 60% percent of games against teams with a winning record ranked OHIO 21 out of 122 teams. Winning 3 games against teams with a winning record ranked OHIO 28 out of 122 teams.

Teams with winning records but only one (1) win against teams with winning records (2011):

FIU, 8-5
Mississippi State, 7-6
San Diego State, 8-5
SMU, 8-5
Temple, 9-4

Teams winning records but zero (0) wins against teams with winning records (2011):

WMU, 7-6
Nevada, 7-6
Florida, 7-6
Air Force, 7-6

MAC and Friends 2011 record vs. teams with winning records:

NIU, 4-1
Marshall, 3-5
OHIO, 3-2
Ohio A&M, 3-6
Toledo, 3-2
Rutgers, 2-3
Utah State, 2-4
Ball State, 1-5
Temple, 1-3
Bowling Green State, 1-6
Buffalo, 1-2
CMU, 1-5
EMU, 1-4
Kent, 0-6
Miami, 0-6
Akron, 0-5
WMU, 0-5

-------------------------------

2010 Results:

OHIO winning 60% percent of games against teams with a winning record ranked OHIO 38 out of 122 teams. Winning 2 games against teams with a winning record ranked OHIO 46 out of 122 teams.

Teams with winning records but only one (1) win against teams with winning records (2010):

TROY
TOLEDO
SMU
UNC
KANSAS STATE
FRESNO STATE
BOSTON COLLEGE
BAYLOR

Teams winning records but zero (0) wins against teams with winning records (2010):

ARMY
UCF

MAC and Friends 2010 record vs. teams with winning records:

NIU, 3-2
MIAMI, 2-3
OHIO, 2-3
TEMPLE, 2-4
KENT, 1-6
MARSHALL, 1-4
TOLEDO, 1-4
AKRON, 0-5
BALL STATE, 0-3
BGSU, 0-7
BUFFALO, 0-7
CMU, 0-7
EMU, 0-6
WMU, 0-4

----------------

2009 Results:

OHIO winning 43% percent of games against teams with a winning record ranked OHIO 36 out of 122 teams. Winning 3 games against teams with a winning record ranked OHIO 30 out of 122 teams.

Teams with winning records but only one (1) win against teams with winning records (2009):

WYOMING
TROY
TEMPLE
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
IOWA STATE
FRESNO STATE
BGSU

Teams winning records but zero (0) wins against teams with winning records (2009):

NIU

MAC and Friends 2009 record vs. teams with winning records:

CMU, 4-2
OHIO, 3-4
MARSHALL, 3-5
BGSU, 1-6
KENT, 1-4
TEMPLE, 1-4
TOLEDO, 1-4
AKRON, 0-6
BALL STATE, 0-7
EMU, 0-5
MIAMI, 0-8
NIU, 0-5
WMU, 0-2

--------------------

2008 Results:

OHIO winning 0% percent of games against teams with a winning record ranked OHIO 93 out of 122 teams. Winning 0 games against teams with a winning record ranked OHIO 93 out of 122 teams.

Teams with winning records but only one (1) win against teams with winning records (2008):

WMU
TROY
NOTRE DAME
MINNESOTA
LA TECH
KENTUCKY
FRESNO STATE
FAU
BUFFALO

Teams winning records but zero (0) wins against teams with winning records (2008):

N/A

MAC and Friends 2008 record vs. teams with winning records:

BALL STATE, 3-2
CMU, 2-3
MARSHALL, 2-6
BGSU, 1-3
BUFFALO, 1-5
EMU, 1-4
KENT, 1-2
WMU, 1-4
AKRON, 0-4
MIAMI, 0-4
OHIO, 0-5
TEMPLE, 0-6
TOLEDO, 0-5
NIU, 0-6

--------------------------

For the sake of covering the Solich years:

2007 Results:

MAC 2007 record vs teams with winning records:

Ball State, 2-4
Miami, 2-2
BGSU, 1-3
CMU, 1-4
EMU, 1-3
Marshall, 1-7
OHIO, 1-1
Akron, 0-5
Buffalo, 0-4
Kent, 0-4
NIU, 0-4
Temple, 0-4
Toledo, 0-5
WMU, 0-5

----------------------------

2006 Results:

MAC 2006 record vs teams with winning records:

CMU, 3-4
OHIO, 2-4
BGSU, 1-3
NIU, 1-4
Toledo, 1-2
WMU, 1-4
Akron, 0-5
Ball State, 0-5
EMU, 0-5
Kent, 0-2
Miami, 0-5
Marshall, 0-5
Buffalo, 0-6
Temple, 0-7

---------------

2005 Results:

MAC 2005 record vs teams with winning records:

NIU, 4-4
Ball State, 3-6
CMU, 3-3
Akron, 3-3
Toledo, 3-3
EMU, 2-5
WMU, 2-3
BGSU, 1-5
Miami, 1-4
Buffalo, 0-6
Marshall, 0-5
Kent, 0-6
OHIO, 0-7
Temple, 0-10

Last Edited: 10/8/2014 4:39:27 PM by The Situation

The Situation
General User

Member Since: 7/12/2010
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 957

Status: Offline

RE: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/6/2014 12:36:50 PM

(post integrated above)

Last Edited: 10/6/2014 3:30:26 PM by The Situation

GoCats105
General User

Member Since: 1/31/2006
Location: Seattle, WA
Post Count: 6,929

Status: Offline

RE: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/6/2014 12:39:47 PM

This is great info. But then I have to ask the question: is this what Ohio wants to shoot for? I understand mediocrity is not the goal, nor should it be.

My concern is just with the way Ohio has played over the last 2 years. There has been a noticeable dropoff in the way the team plays against better teams. It's so obvious it's painful.

Sure, those teams are better and win the games simply because they are just better. It's not calculus and it's easy to figure out. But with the numbers Ohio has put up offensively, with or without an accomplished QB, RB and WR, you can't not wonder if there is something that needs to be changed.

cc-cat
General User

Member Since: 4/5/2006
Location: matthews, NC
Post Count: 3,822

Status: Offline

RE: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/6/2014 12:50:55 PM

GoCats105 wrote:

Yet, style points aside, with the exception of the Marshall game, the season has gone exactly as you predicted in another thread.

@ Kent State: W
@ Kentucky: L
@ Marshall: W
Idaho: W
Eastern Illinois: W
@ Central Michigan: L

GoCats105
General User

Member Since: 1/31/2006
Location: Seattle, WA
Post Count: 6,929

Status: Offline

RE: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/6/2014 12:56:10 PM

cc cat wrote:

GoCats105 wrote:

We beat Marshall this year?

And who said anything about style points? I'm talking about just being competitive offensively. It just hasn't happened against comparable to better teams on the schedule.

Last Edited: 10/6/2014 1:02:12 PM by GoCats105

The Situation
General User

Member Since: 7/12/2010
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 957

Status: Offline

RE: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/6/2014 1:17:57 PM

GoCats105 wrote:

My concern is just with the way Ohio has played over the last 2 years. There has been a noticeable dropoff in the way the team plays against better teams. It's so obvious it's painful.

Define better.

When CMU, Kent, and Buffalo beat OHIO, the victory was the only time all season those teams won against an opponent with a winning record.

The same OHIO team went and beat a 10 win Marshall team and 9 win North Texas team. Marshall won three games against teams with a winning record. North Texas won 4 games against teams with a winning record (one more win than BG and NIU).

OHIO is all over the map with these wins and losses.

GoCats105
General User

Member Since: 1/31/2006
Location: Seattle, WA
Post Count: 6,929

Status: Offline

RE: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/6/2014 1:36:24 PM

The Situation wrote:

GoCats105 wrote:

My concern is just with the way Ohio has played over the last 2 years. There has been a noticeable dropoff in the way the team plays against better teams. It's so obvious it's painful.

Maybe that's my problem. If they are playing well against Marshall and North Texas, two rather good teams, how in the world do they lose to CMU, Kent, Buffalo, BG? The Kent, Buffalo and BG games weren't even close last year.

Maybe that's where I'm concerned. At this point, you would think there would be some consistency. And it really feels like it started to fall off after Ohio peaked when it was ranked in 2012.

Last Edited: 10/6/2014 1:37:13 PM by GoCats105

cc-cat
General User

Member Since: 4/5/2006
Location: matthews, NC
Post Count: 3,822

Status: Offline

RE: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/6/2014 2:11:35 PM

GoCats105 wrote:

cc cat wrote:

GoCats105 wrote:

I guess I should have bold my "with the exception of Marshall" comment

Pataskala
General User

Member Since: 7/8/2010
Location: At least six feet away from anybody else
Post Count: 9,154

Status: Offline

RE: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/6/2014 2:14:49 PM

GoCats105 wrote:

The Situation wrote:

GoCats105 wrote:

My concern is just with the way Ohio has played over the last 2 years. There has been a noticeable dropoff in the way the team plays against better teams. It's so obvious it's painful.

Remember, in 2012 we had to get to 7-0 before we were ranked, primarily because most of the teams we beat -- NMSt, T'erd, Norfolk St, UMass, Buffalo & Akron -- weren't that good. Three of our losses were to Kent (11-4), BG (8-5) & BSU (9-4). Like most G5 teams, our national ranking was largely a result of attrition; some voters think that only so many G5 schools are worthy of points in a given week, and it takes one to lose before another can move up. Just compare this week's rankings with last week's to see the ripple effect of BYU's loss.

Last year was as much mental as physical. The phantom safety snowballed that night in Buffalo, and after that the team seemed to implode whenever the slightest thing went wrong. We had mostly the same talent in Nov as we did in Oct, but for three games we lost the will to win.

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

The Situation
General User

Member Since: 7/12/2010
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 957

Status: Offline

RE: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/6/2014 2:21:42 PM

GoCats105,

As the season unfolds, Kentucky and Marshall continue to define themselves as top quartile teams.

Those particular losses look more and more appropriate with each passing week.

I can't explain the lack of offensive production against CMU, but we do have a clearly defined variable to test. That variable is backup QB, JD Sprague. Sprague has completed 50% of his passing compared to Vick's 61.5%. I would argue that's enough of a disparity to kill an offense.

Until we see Vick get healthy and bomb in MAC play, I'm not sweating.

The Kent opener this year was the most complete OU performance (considering the 4 fumbles) that I've seen since I started following the program in 2008.

And looking back at the 2012/2013 collapses I point to Tettleton's unexplained refusal to run (658 yards rushing 2011, 244 yards rushing 2012, 24 yards rushing 2012).

GoCats105
General User

Member Since: 1/31/2006
Location: Seattle, WA
Post Count: 6,929

Status: Offline

RE: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/6/2014 2:41:15 PM

The Situation wrote:

Fair enough. I guess I can put up with the UK and Marshall losses. I thought Ohio would lose preseason, but not nearly as bad as they did. CMU just has Ohio's number, it doesn't matter who the coach is or what the scheme is or the players on the team. I don't get it.

Still, it's just troubling that it's been going on for this long and nothing has been done to make it better. It just looks like the offense is beating its head against a brick wall and the wall keeps getting bigger. Repeated BUTM, DUTM, TUTM, and AJUTM are fine against inferior teams like EIU, Idaho and UMass, but against BG, Buffalo, Kent and others it's pointless.

Last Edited: 10/6/2014 2:44:31 PM by GoCats105

GoCats105
General User

Member Since: 1/31/2006
Location: Seattle, WA
Post Count: 6,929

Status: Offline

RE: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/6/2014 2:42:02 PM

cc cat wrote:

GoCats105 wrote:

cc cat wrote:

GoCats105 wrote:

I guess I should have bold my "with the exception of Marshall" comment

I should have read more clearly. But that was a big L.

cc-cat
General User

Member Since: 4/5/2006
Location: matthews, NC
Post Count: 3,822

Status: Offline

RE: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/6/2014 3:25:32 PM

Big loss to a very good team (as much as some hate to admit)

GoCats105
General User

Member Since: 1/31/2006
Location: Seattle, WA
Post Count: 6,929

Status: Offline

RE: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/6/2014 3:44:10 PM

cc cat wrote:

Big loss to a very good team (as much as some hate to admit)

I won't disagree with that. I just wonder if they are really THAT much better, considering we beat them three years prior to that. Even if we did lose, I expected it to be much more competitive.

The Situation
General User

Member Since: 7/12/2010
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 957

Status: Offline

RE: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/6/2014 4:17:46 PM

GoCats105 wrote:

cc cat wrote:

Big loss to a very good team (as much as some hate to admit)

I won't disagree with that. I just wonder if they are really THAT much better, considering we beat them three years prior to that. Even if we did lose, I expected it to be much more competitive.

Define "THAT much better".

I don't respect the approach most take to rank teams (or academic institutions for that matter).

I believe strongly in tiered ranking systems. Rankings where items are placed in a specific tier once objective criteria have been satisfied.

(If I had it my way Jeff Sagarin would be kicked to the the curb.)

I conclude the following from the results in the first post:

1. Win two games against teams that finish with winning records and you're in the top half of college football.

2. Win three games against teams that finish with winning records and you'll compete for the MAC championship in most years. (compete being the operative word, the Miamis and Buffaloes of the world can still play the spoiler role)

3. Win four games against teams that finish with winning records and you're a legitimate a Top 25 team (Legitimate meaning no subjective, emotional, biases placed you in the Top 25... At that point you've made yourself clear)

Based on wins against teams with winning records, Marshall will likely finish at least one tier ahead of this OHIO team.

Last Edited: 10/6/2014 4:23:12 PM by The Situation

GoCats105
General User

Member Since: 1/31/2006
Location: Seattle, WA
Post Count: 6,929

Status: Offline

RE: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/6/2014 4:23:25 PM

The Situation wrote:

GoCats105 wrote:

cc cat wrote:

Big loss to a very good team (as much as some hate to admit)

I won't disagree with that. I just wonder if they are really THAT much better, considering we beat them three years prior to that. Even if we did lose, I expected it to be much more competitive.

THAT much better in the way the scoreboard read at the end of the game. And it probably could have been worse. From what was seen on the field, it didn't even look close.

The Situation
General User

Member Since: 7/12/2010
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 957

Status: Offline

RE: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/6/2014 4:30:32 PM

GoCats105 wrote:

THAT much better in the way the scoreboard read at the end of the game. And it probably could have been worse. From what was seen on the field, it didn't even look close.

Marshall keeps piling the points on opponents. They seem poised to beat every team with a winning record on their schedule by the close of the regular season.

Even if we win a couple of these "winning record" games, Marshall may still be a couple tiers ahead.

Andrew Ruck
General User

Member Since: 12/22/2004
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 4,709

Status: Offline

RE: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/6/2014 8:52:32 PM

I've actually done some pretty extensive analysis to answer the question "How often do football teams win?" I've been doing it for decades. It turns out they end up winning about 50% of the time, on average. Amazingly, the number stays right about 50% every single season going back to the beginning of the sport.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

The Situation
General User

Member Since: 7/12/2010
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 957

Status: Offline

RE: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/6/2014 9:00:50 PM

Andrew Ruck wrote:

I can't tell if you're kidding or not. The FBS is not a closed system. Wins can enter and exit through the FCS. Wins can be created or destroyed in the FBS universe.

Monroe Slavin
General User

Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Oxnard, CA
Post Count: 9,121

Status: Offline

RE: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/6/2014 9:06:07 PM

We got blowed out against CMU. Demolished. Destroyed.

Work-up as long of a post and analysis as you want but I'm disgusted that we knew what they do (hello Rawls and Davis) and couldn't come near stopping it, and they stopped us 'cause they and anyonee else who's ever lived, or will live, knew what we'd do.

CMU has our number, so forget about beating them. Is that really the depth of thinking here?

We get out-coached.

Last Edited: 10/6/2014 9:06:59 PM by Monroe Slavin

Where's the band?!
WHERE"S THE BAND?!

DesignspiritUSA.com
The Pets On The Go Collection of pet gear travel bags
The Holiday Tote Bigg Bagg Collection--over-sized, reversible, extra pockets; now love carrying packages as much as you love shopping!

The Situation
General User

Member Since: 7/12/2010
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 957

Status: Offline

RE: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/6/2014 9:20:09 PM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

http://giphy.com/gifs/comedy-mad-tv-stuart-czZlH3xg1Ul2w

BillyTheCat
General User

Member Since: 10/6/2012
Post Count: 9,491

Status: Offline

RE: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/6/2014 9:25:05 PM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

Monroe, many times the game is simply about the "Bob's and Joe's and not the X's and the O's"

Monroe Slavin
General User

Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Oxnard, CA
Post Count: 9,121

Status: Offline

RE: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/6/2014 11:46:42 PM

BillyTheCat wrote:

Monroe Slavin wrote:

Monroe, many times the game is simply about the "Bob's and Joe's and not the X's and the O's"

Good point. Coaching strategy is never a factor, never responsible.

Will you say the same if Miami beats us this year.

BillyTheCat
General User

Member Since: 10/6/2012
Post Count: 9,491

Status: Offline

RE: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/7/2014 6:56:48 AM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

Monroe Slavin wrote:

Monroe, many times the game is simply about the "Bob's and Joe's and not the X's and the O's"

Good point. Coaching strategy is never a factor, never responsible.

Will you say the same if Miami beats us this year.

If we are out manned and the opponent is simply the better team, than yes, I will still say that. Way are we out manned would then be my question. However, schemes our only as effective as the kids who run them.

The Situation
General User

Member Since: 7/12/2010
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 957

Status: Offline

RE: College Football Teams Don't Win As Often As You Think They Do

Posted: 10/7/2014 8:01:35 AM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

Good point. Coaching strategy is never a factor, never responsible.

Will you say the same if Miami beats us this year.

The Brady Hoke Story (2008-2013):

Wins Vs. Winning Teams per Season

Ball State (2008): 3-2
San Diego State (2009): 0-7
San Diego State (2010): 2-4
Michigan (2011): 7-2 <-------------- Doesn't belong
Michigan (2012): 2-5
Michigan (2013): 1-5

Was it Brady Hoke's coaching strategy in 2011 that made his team 7-2 against teams with winning records? I doubt it.

Or was it the perfect storm, a combination of Llyod Carr and Rich Rodriguez recruits plus Brady Hoke's dumb luck?

I won't expect a coherent reply from you Monroe. I'll assume years of open-mouthed drooling have left most of your keyboard inoperable.

Showing Replies:	1 - 25 of 50 Posts
Jump to Page:	1 \| 2 Next >

View Other 'Ohio Football' Topics

There are 145 Active Visitors on BobcatAttack.com

145 Guests
0 Registered Users

There are no other users looking at this page.