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Topic:  Ohio #133 in returning production

Topic:  Ohio #133 in returning production
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colobobcat66
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Member Since: 9/1/2006
Location: Watching the bobcats run outside my window., CO
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  Message Not Read  Ohio #133 in returning production
   Posted: 2/7/2024 9:39:07 PM 
ESPN has Ohio as next to last as far as returning production for next year. The boys in Oxford are #9. It should be an interesting year.
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OhioBobcat
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Post Count: 1,549

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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio #133 in returning production
   Posted: 2/8/2024 9:16:31 AM 
colobobcat66 wrote:
ESPN has Ohio as next to last as far as returning production for next year. The boys in Oxford are #9. It should be an interesting year.


This type of information is essentially useless now because of the transfer portal. Five years ago a stat like this or information on starters and lettermen lost/returning carried weight. Now, it means almost nothing. You can lose every bit of production nowadays and simply go out and literally replace that lost production with guys who were productive elsewhere that you brought in as replacements. Sure there is an element of familiarity and continuity that is impacted, but so is the element of replacing what you lost with an even better replacement.
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colobobcat66
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Location: Watching the bobcats run outside my window., CO
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio #133 in returning production
   Posted: 2/8/2024 10:02:37 AM 
OhioBobcat wrote:
colobobcat66 wrote:
ESPN has Ohio as next to last as far as returning production for next year. The boys in Oxford are #9. It should be an interesting year.


This type of information is essentially useless now because of the transfer portal. Five years ago a stat like this or information on starters and lettermen lost/returning carried weight. Now, it means almost nothing. You can lose every bit of production nowadays and simply go out and literally replace that lost production with guys who were productive elsewhere that you brought in as replacements. Sure there is an element of familiarity and continuity that is impacted, but so is the element of replacing what you lost with an even better replacement.


Somewhat agree with what you say, if we did indeed replace with guys who were productive elsewhere. Exactly who replaced Kurtis? and down the line, we did get some good ones but realty did we replace all the production? We’ll have to see. Without any NIL to speak of, we’re probably not going to be able to just replace what we lose so easily,
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M.D.W.S.T
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Member Since: 12/23/2021
Post Count: 1,785

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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio #133 in returning production
   Posted: 2/8/2024 1:22:48 PM 
Hard to build a program this way, but it's the hand college football - especially at this level - has been dealt.

Hopefully we can spin some small positives in this hellscape. Stability within the building from Albin, Scott, Brian, Spense. New blood from big programs who have seen how things can / should be run.
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thehawg27
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio #133 in returning production
   Posted: 2/9/2024 11:43:22 AM 
The portal won't be the answer for most MAC schools. Fans fall in love with it despite the facts that prove otherwise. The MAC teams that recruit, develop and retain are going to the most successful moving forward. If Ohio can do that the'll continue having success.
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BryanHall
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio #133 in returning production
   Posted: 2/9/2024 4:29:48 PM 
thehawg27 wrote:
The portal won't be the answer for most MAC schools. Fans fall in love with it despite the facts that prove otherwise. The MAC teams that recruit, develop and retain are going to the most successful moving forward. If Ohio can do that the'll continue having success.


I think that finding FCS and DII gems will be important as well.
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L.C.
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Location: United States
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio #133 in returning production
   Posted: 2/9/2024 4:30:49 PM 
thehawg27 wrote:
The portal won't be the answer for most MAC schools. Fans fall in love with it despite the facts that prove otherwise. The MAC teams that recruit, develop and retain are going to the most successful moving forward. If Ohio can do that the'll continue having success.

I don't think anyone "loves" the portal. I think we all accept that it's a fact of life, and that, on one hand, good players will be lost to the portal, and on the other hand, good players can also be added from the portal. On the whole, it's clearly a net negative for G5 schools. In prior years, many coaches tried to build programs based on a lot of JUCOs and a lot of transfers. Akron comes to mind. I don't think that trying to build a program via the portal will work much better, but I'm sure Colorado won't the only program to try.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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L.C.
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Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,067

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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio #133 in returning production
   Posted: 2/10/2024 8:27:32 AM 
OhioBobcat wrote:
colobobcat66 wrote:
ESPN has Ohio as next to last as far as returning production for next year. The boys in Oxford are #9. It should be an interesting year.


This type of information is essentially useless now because of the transfer portal. Five years ago a stat like this or information on starters and lettermen lost/returning carried weight. Now, it means almost nothing. You can lose every bit of production nowadays and simply go out and literally replace that lost production with guys who were productive elsewhere that you brought in as replacements. Sure there is an element of familiarity and continuity that is impacted, but so is the element of replacing what you lost with an even better replacement.

The thing is, that you have to keep in mind exactly what "returning production" is. There are a variety of possible situations that can lead to different ways to interpret it:
1. Team was good, has lots of returning production - This team will probably be good, at least as good as the prior year
2. Team was bad, has lots of returning production - This team will probably be as good as the prior year, maybe better, but they may still be bad.
3. Team was bad, has low returning production - Team probably will probably not be good as the players behind the prior year starters are probably not good
4. Team was good, has low returning production - This has the least predictive value. Team quality is unknown. The players will be all new. They might be nearly as good as the prior year starters, or there might be a big drop off.

Applying this to the current situation, Miami and Ohio were fairly close last year. Miami was the winner, but if they had played 10 times, Ohio might have won four. Miami was good and has a tremendous amount of returning production, so they will no doubt be good again. Ohio was good, but has low returning production, so they are an unknown. They could have a big drop off, or, it's possible that at some positions, the backups were nearly as good as the starters, and that, as they become starters, they will improve, and be just as good or better. Certainly, if you had to make a pick at this time, you'd have to go with Miami, but we'll have to see how it goes. I'm not writing off the 2024 Bobcats. I happen to think they will be pretty good. I have faith in the Ohio staff to get them prepared, and the fact that they will likely be picked to finish 4th or 5th in the MAC should fire them up to outperform expectations.

The one thing I do predict is that if the Bobcats do win 8-10 games this fall, few here on BA will be complaining about the coaches earning an automatic extension. ;)

Last Edited: 2/10/2024 8:29:57 AM by L.C.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Campus Flow
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Alexandria, VA
Post Count: 4,952

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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio #133 in returning production
   Posted: 2/10/2024 11:48:19 AM 
colobobcat66 wrote:
OhioBobcat wrote:
colobobcat66 wrote:
ESPN has Ohio as next to last as far as returning production for next year. The boys in Oxford are #9. It should be an interesting year.


This type of information is essentially useless now because of the transfer portal. Five years ago a stat like this or information on starters and lettermen lost/returning carried weight. Now, it means almost nothing. You can lose every bit of production nowadays and simply go out and literally replace that lost production with guys who were productive elsewhere that you brought in as replacements. Sure there is an element of familiarity and continuity that is impacted, but so is the element of replacing what you lost with an even better replacement.


Somewhat agree with what you say, if we did indeed replace with guys who were productive elsewhere. Exactly who replaced Kurtis? and down the line, we did get some good ones but realty did we replace all the production? We’ll have to see. Without any NIL to speak of, we’re probably not going to be able to just replace what we lose so easily,


Ohio lost the production going into the bowl and up 27-0 on Georgia Southern in the game. I think we'll be fine and capable of 8+ wins with an easy MAC schedule.

Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

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Campus Flow
General User



Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Alexandria, VA
Post Count: 4,952

Status: Offline
  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio #133 in returning production
   Posted: 2/10/2024 11:49:11 AM 
L.C. wrote:
OhioBobcat wrote:
colobobcat66 wrote:
ESPN has Ohio as next to last as far as returning production for next year. The boys in Oxford are #9. It should be an interesting year.


This type of information is essentially useless now because of the transfer portal. Five years ago a stat like this or information on starters and lettermen lost/returning carried weight. Now, it means almost nothing. You can lose every bit of production nowadays and simply go out and literally replace that lost production with guys who were productive elsewhere that you brought in as replacements. Sure there is an element of familiarity and continuity that is impacted, but so is the element of replacing what you lost with an even better replacement.

The thing is, that you have to keep in mind exactly what "returning production" is. There are a variety of possible situations that can lead to different ways to interpret it:
1. Team was good, has lots of returning production - This team will probably be good, at least as good as the prior year
2. Team was bad, has lots of returning production - This team will probably be as good as the prior year, maybe better, but they may still be bad.
3. Team was bad, has low returning production - Team probably will probably not be good as the players behind the prior year starters are probably not good
4. Team was good, has low returning production - This has the least predictive value. Team quality is unknown. The players will be all new. They might be nearly as good as the prior year starters, or there might be a big drop off.

Applying this to the current situation, Miami and Ohio were fairly close last year. Miami was the winner, but if they had played 10 times, Ohio might have won four. Miami was good and has a tremendous amount of returning production, so they will no doubt be good again. Ohio was good, but has low returning production, so they are an unknown. They could have a big drop off, or, it's possible that at some positions, the backups were nearly as good as the starters, and that, as they become starters, they will improve, and be just as good or better. Certainly, if you had to make a pick at this time, you'd have to go with Miami, but we'll have to see how it goes. I'm not writing off the 2024 Bobcats. I happen to think they will be pretty good. I have faith in the Ohio staff to get them prepared, and the fact that they will likely be picked to finish 4th or 5th in the MAC should fire them up to outperform expectations.

The one thing I do predict is that if the Bobcats do win 8-10 games this fall, few here on BA will be complaining about the coaches earning an automatic extension. ;)


I could see Ohio losing to Miami in Oxford but getting revenge in Detroit.

Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

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BryanHall
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Member Since: 9/11/2010
Post Count: 490

Status: Offline
  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio #133 in returning production
   Posted: 2/10/2024 3:35:33 PM 
Campus Flow wrote:
colobobcat66 wrote:
OhioBobcat wrote:
colobobcat66 wrote:
ESPN has Ohio as next to last as far as returning production for next year. The boys in Oxford are #9. It should be an interesting year.


This type of information is essentially useless now because of the transfer portal. Five years ago a stat like this or information on starters and lettermen lost/returning carried weight. Now, it means almost nothing. You can lose every bit of production nowadays and simply go out and literally replace that lost production with guys who were productive elsewhere that you brought in as replacements. Sure there is an element of familiarity and continuity that is impacted, but so is the element of replacing what you lost with an even better replacement.


Somewhat agree with what you say, if we did indeed replace with guys who were productive elsewhere. Exactly who replaced Kurtis? and down the line, we did get some good ones but realty did we replace all the production? We’ll have to see. Without any NIL to speak of, we’re probably not going to be able to just replace what we lose so easily,


Ohio lost the production going into the bowl and up 27-0 on Georgia Southern in the game. I think we'll be fine and capable of 8+ wins with an easy MAC schedule.



GA Southern was a bad team on an 0-4 run that turned the ball over repeatedly early in the game. It allowed the Cats to rely heavily on their run game to build a big lead. I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm saying we may not be able to make too many conclusions from that game.

Last Edited: 2/11/2024 10:38:22 AM by BryanHall
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L.C.
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Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,067

Status: Offline
  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio #133 in returning production
   Posted: 2/11/2024 9:46:47 AM 
thehawg27 wrote:
The portal won't be the answer for most MAC schools. Fans fall in love with it despite the facts that prove otherwise. The MAC teams that recruit, develop and retain are going to the most successful moving forward. If Ohio can do that the'll continue having success.


Now that the first round of the portal is over, and national Signing Day has come and gone, it's worth pointing out that Ohio's coaches obviously expected to lose a lot of players into the portal. The number of Freshmen signed in December was significantly higher than the number of players who used up their eligibility. By my count, Ohio lost 19 players to the portal, but only took one Juco and 10 players from the portal (and that assumes that Tyrus arrives in the Fall), a net loss of 8 experienced players, made up for by signing 8 additional Freshmen, Freshmen that were signed before the portal opened. Ohio sent the message that they will continue to focus on recruiting Freshmen, and developing them.

Last Edited: 2/11/2024 9:48:17 AM by L.C.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Campus Flow
General User



Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Alexandria, VA
Post Count: 4,952

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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio #133 in returning production
   Posted: 2/11/2024 11:58:54 PM 
BryanHall wrote:
Campus Flow wrote:
colobobcat66 wrote:
OhioBobcat wrote:
colobobcat66 wrote:
ESPN has Ohio as next to last as far as returning production for next year. The boys in Oxford are #9. It should be an interesting year.


This type of information is essentially useless now because of the transfer portal. Five years ago a stat like this or information on starters and lettermen lost/returning carried weight. Now, it means almost nothing. You can lose every bit of production nowadays and simply go out and literally replace that lost production with guys who were productive elsewhere that you brought in as replacements. Sure there is an element of familiarity and continuity that is impacted, but so is the element of replacing what you lost with an even better replacement.


Somewhat agree with what you say, if we did indeed replace with guys who were productive elsewhere. Exactly who replaced Kurtis? and down the line, we did get some good ones but realty did we replace all the production? We’ll have to see. Without any NIL to speak of, we’re probably not going to be able to just replace what we lose so easily,


Ohio lost the production going into the bowl and up 27-0 on Georgia Southern in the game. I think we'll be fine and capable of 8+ wins with an easy MAC schedule.



GA Southern was a bad team on an 0-4 run that turned the ball over repeatedly early in the game. It allowed the Cats to rely heavily on their run game to build a big lead. I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm saying we may not be able to make too many conclusions from that game.


Definitely not conclusive however I'm still confident this is at least a 6-8 win squad next season with all the newcomers that with a couple extra weeks of practice still get it done in a bowl game. Past track record says it will be and the MAC schedule overall is favorable. Non-conference seems doable in theory but we know that Kentucky and Syracuse get up for MAC games and South Alabama is dangerous so for that reason my win expectations for 2024 are tempered.

Last Edited: 2/11/2024 11:59:47 PM by Campus Flow

Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

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