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Topic: RE: Way too early look at 2020

Topic: RE: Way too early look at 2020

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BillyTheCat
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Member Since: 10/6/2012
Post Count: 6,313

Status: Offline

RE: Way too early look at 2020

Posted: 6/23/2020 11:37:46 PM

L.C. wrote:

MonroeClassmate wrote:

Curious why the team that won the conference in '19 with a freshman QB who perhaps will continue to develop, is not the team to beat in the east? Did they lose all their skill players on offense?

They lost little on Offense, but they lost a fair amount on Defense. Certainly they will be in the running for this year. If you look at a couple of sources, while they won the MACC, they were not the best team in the MAC.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28497018... Connelly's final SP+ for last year has the best teams in the MAC as:
Ohio +3.7
Buffalo -2.4
CMU -4.4
Ball State -4.5
WMU -4.9
EMU -8.6
Miami -9.2

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2019/confer... /
Sagarin has it (using his Predictor ratings):
Buffalo 65.79
Ohio 65.60
WMU 65.48
Ball State 61.37
Miami 60.79

https://www.masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf
From Massey we have some composite ratings:
Buffalo 61
Miami, OH 74
Ohio 77
WMU 79
Kent 82
CMU 88

So, pick your poison. None have Miami as the top team. I tend to look more at numbers from Bill Connelly, and from PFF. Here's PFF's ratings of college quarterbacks last year.
https://www.pff.com/news/college-pff-rankings-starting-qu...
Gabbert comes in at #100, middle of the MAC. Of course, a lot of QBs make their biggest improvement from their first year to their second. We shall see how it goes.

Also, from PFF, the Offensive line grades: Miami at 88, Ohio way down at 39
https://www.pff.com/news/college-football-ranking-all-130...

If you look at the stats from last year, Miami's offense sucked:
https://getsomemaction.com/stats.aspx?path=football&year=...

Meanwhile, Ohio's offense was the best in the MAC, but their defense let them down at critical times, and cost several games (Marshall, NIU, WMU). Ohio's defense mostly returns, all but Hagan, Popp, and Cole Baker. If they can use their experience to dominate, Ohio will be very good, but if not, it could be a long season.

OMG! They won the East and the MACC, to say they were not the best team is like saying I won the power ball because statistics say my number should have come up.

Do we get a banner for ESPN MAC Computer Champions?

Last Edited: 6/23/2020 11:40:59 PM by BillyTheCat

L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 9,240

Status: Offline

RE: Way too early look at 2020

Posted: 6/24/2020 10:22:34 AM

BillyTheCat wrote:

It has nothing to do with who was the Champion last year. Miami was the undisputed Champion last year. It has everything to do with trying to project who will be the Champion this year, and I project it will be Buffalo.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

GoCats105
General User

Member Since: 1/31/2006
Location: Austin, TX
Post Count: 5,488

Status: Offline

RE: Way too early look at 2020

Posted: 6/24/2020 2:19:47 PM

Akron is about due for some bullsh*ttery like winning this conference. With the way 2020 has gone, it wouldn't surprise me in the least.

Bobcat1996
General User

Member Since: 1/2/2017
Post Count: 466

Status: Offline

RE: Way too early look at 2020

Posted: 6/24/2020 2:38:58 PM

Athlon magazine has Buffalo winning the MAC. The Bulls are forecast to go 6-2 in the East with Miami and Ohio behind them at 5-3 and Kent at 4-4 BG and Akron are at the bottom. Toledo is predicted to finish 6-2 in the West, with Central, Ball St and Western at 5-3. I'm guessing Athlon thinks Ohio will lose at Central, at Toledo and maybe at Miami? The Bulls could very well get off to a quick start with Akron, BG, Ball St and Kent scheduled before October 17. They travel to NI, host Miami and then come to Peden, before ending the year at Western. It won't be easy but six conference wins should be good for first place in the East. Included in those wins, is a must beating the Bulls at home and finding a way to beat Miami.

Bobcat1996
General User

Member Since: 1/2/2017
Post Count: 466

Status: Offline

RE: Way too early look at 2020

Posted: 6/27/2020 3:04:55 PM

Below is what College Football News is forecasting for Buffalo. CFN suggests that the Bulls will win the league championship.

"This year�s team has the talent, experience, and depth to avoid the clunkers. However �

SET THE BUFFALO BULLS REGULAR SEASON WIN TOTAL AT � 8
Bet at BetMGM Win Total Line: 7.5

As good as Buffalo is, assume losses to Kent State and Ohio State on the road. Road games at Army, Northern Illinois, Ohio and Western Michigan account for four of the last five games � expect two losses in that bunch.

It won�t be a perfect season, and it�ll be a fight, but be disappointed if head coach Lance Leipold doesn�t lead the program to its first MAC championship since 2008."

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