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Create an Account login email: password: remember me: BASKETBALL Latest News News Archive Schedule/Results Multi-Media Recruiting FOOTBALL Latest News News Archive Schedule/Results Multi-Media Recruiting MESSAGE BOARD Message Home - Ohio Basketball - Ohio Basketball Recruiting - The O Zone - Ohio Football - Ohio Football Recruiting - Ohio Volleyball - Ohio Baseball - Ohio Olympic Sports... - General OU Discussion... - Website Feedback... - Posting Policy Edit My Profile Private Messages Logout CHAT LINKS site searchwhere to watchcontact usabout usadvertise with ushelp Message Board BobcatAttack.com Message Board Ohio Football Topic:  2017 Bowl Eligibility Tracker Topic:  2017 Bowl Eligibility Tracker Author Message Victory General User Member Since: 3/10/2012 Post Count: 1,881 Status: Offline     2017 Bowl Eligibility Tracker    Posted: 10/1/2017 6:22:29 PM  Eligibility Chance according to teamrankings through 9/30. 1 Clemson 100.00% 2 Oklahoma 100.00% 3 TX Christian 100.00% 4 Ohio State 100.00% 5 Penn State 100.00% 6 Wisconsin 100.00% 7 San Diego St 100.00% 8 Washington 100.00% 9 Georgia 100.00% 10 Alabama 100.00% 11 S Florida 99.90% 12 Oklahoma St 99.90% 13 USC 99.90% 14 Auburn 99.90% 15 Troy 99.90% 16 Central FL 99.80% 17 Michigan 99.40% 18 Notre Dame 99.30% 19 VA Tech 99.20% 20 App State 99.20% 21 Louisville 99.10% 22 TX-San Ant 99.00% 23 OHIO 99.00% 24 Colorado St 98.90% 25 W Michigan 98.70% 26 Wash State 98.70% 27 Oregon 98.70% 28 Toledo 97.80% 29 Miss State 97.80% 30 Marshall 97.70% 31 Miami (FL) 97.50% 32 Navy 97.30% 33 Houston 97.20% 34 Stanford 95.60% 35 Duke 94.30% 36 S Methodist 93.40% 37 NC State 91.70% 38 LA Tech 91.60% 39 Kentucky 91.40% 40 N Illinois 90.90% 41 Wake Forest 90.80% 42 Florida 90.10% 43 W Kentucky 88.70% 44 Utah 87.50% 45 Fresno St 87.20% 46 North Texas 86.60% 47 Army 85.60% 48 Minnesota 84.40% 49 Memphis 84.10% 50 Texas A&M 84.10% 51 Kansas St 83.00% 52 S Mississippi 82.30% 53 Texas Tech 82.00% 54 Utah State 81.80% 55 Vanderbilt 81.30% 56 Iowa 80.20% 57 Fla Atlantic 80.10% 58 Florida St 79.30% 59 Boise State 79.10% 60 Arkansas St 77.30% 61 Middle Tenn 76.30% 62 Colorado 74.70% 63 Indiana 74.10% 64 Buffalo 73.50% 65 W Virginia 72.80% 66 Texas 72.60% 67 Tennessee 72.50% 68 Miami (OH) 70.40% 69 LSU 69.00% 70 N Mex State 66.90% 71 Northwestern 66.60% 72 S Carolina 66.20% 73 Arkansas 63.20% 74 Maryland 62.90% 75 Tulane 62.50% 76 Purdue 61.00% 77 Michigan St 60.20% 78 UCLA 58.50% 79 Arizona 55.90% 80 GA Tech 55.60% 81 UNLV 55.20% 82 New Mexico 54.40% 83 Wyoming 52.10% 84 Virginia 51.80% 85 E Michigan 48.10% 86 UAB 48.00% 87 Air Force 44.50% 88 Idaho 43.70% 89 Old Dominion 42.00% 90 BYU 37.80% 91 California 35.60% 92 LA Monroe 35.60% 93 Akron 35.10% 94 Cincinnati 34.60% 95 Arizona St 33.10% 96 Nebraska 28.40% 97 Georgia State 24.70% 98 Ball State 24.10% 99 Florida Intl 21.60% 100 Temple 21.00% 101 Iowa State 18.50% 102 GA Southern 17.80% 103 Pittsburgh 17.60% 104 Tulsa 17.50% 105 Hawaii 17.30% 106 Boston Col 15.50% 107 Central Mich 13.10% 108 LA Lafayette 10.50% 109 S Alabama 10.30% 110 Syracuse 9.80% 111 N Carolina 7.50% 112 Missouri 5.50% 113 Illinois 3.20% 114 Connecticut 2.70% 115 Kent State 1.70% 116 Rice 1.50% 117 Texas State 1.10% 118 Rutgers 0.70% 119 Baylor 0.40% 120 E Carolina 0.20% 121 Bowling Grn 0.20% 122 Nevada 0.20% 123 San Jose St 0.10% 124 Kansas 0.00% 125 Charlotte 0.00% 126 TX El Paso 0.00% 127 U Mass 0.00% 128 Oregon St 0.00% 129 Mississippi 0.00% 130 Coastal Car 0.00% There presently are 84 teams above 50% which doesn't matter much. These chances sum to just under 79 which I think is the best guess for the most likely number as anything you could gather from data on the Internet. Back to Top Campus Flow General User Member Since: 12/20/2004 Location: Alexandria, VA Post Count: 4,952 Status: Offline     RE: 2017 Bowl Eligibility Tracker    Posted: 10/1/2017 11:39:38 PM  99% chance of Ohio bowl eligible and I tend to agree. Chances in Detroit I'm feeling pretty good about. Toledo, NIU, WMU I feel with confidence we are on their level after defeating Toledo and NIU last time we played them on the road and competing with a Cotton Bowl bound WMU in Detroit last year. Then last week a solid MAC win on the road at EMU. Go back a few years and Ohio was propping itself up on a steady diet of MAC East but at this point the cats appear to be legit. Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended 2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round 2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl 2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086 Back to Top Victory General User Member Since: 3/10/2012 Post Count: 1,881 Status: Offline     RE: 2017 Bowl Eligibility Tracker    Posted: 10/8/2017 4:56:46 PM  Alabama 100.00% Auburn 100.00% Central FL 100.00% Clemson 100.00% Georgia 100.00% Ohio State 100.00% Penn State 100.00% S Florida 100.00% San Diego St 100.00% Troy 100.00% TX Christian 100.00% Wash State 100.00% Washington 100.00% Wisconsin 100.00% Colorado St 99.90% Notre Dame 99.90% Oklahoma St 99.90% USC 99.90% Oklahoma 99.80% VA Tech 99.80% App State 99.70% Miami (FL) 99.70% W Michigan 99.50% Houston 99.40% NC State 99.00% Stanford 98.90% Toledo 98.70% Navy 98.60% Marshall 98.20% Miss State 98.20% Louisville 97.90% TX-San Ant 97.70% Michigan 97.40% S Mississippi 96.90% Memphis 96.30% Kentucky 95.50% Army 94.60% OHIO 94.50% Fla Atlantic 94.20% Oregon 94.00% N Illinois 92.50% S Carolina 92.40% Michigan St 91.90% Boise State 91.30% Wake Forest 91.20% Texas Tech 91.00% S Methodist 90.00% Texas A&M 89.70% Fresno St 89.30% Arkansas St 88.90% Middle Tenn 88.40% Iowa 88.30% LSU 88.30% Tulane 88.20% North Texas 88.10% W Kentucky 86.50% Utah 86.00% Duke 84.70% Texas 84.30% LA Tech 83.60% Purdue 80.40% Virginia 76.70% Arizona 76.60% Kansas St 75.60% Buffalo 75.00% Florida 74.50% Utah State 74.30% Vanderbilt 72.50% Indiana 72.20% Minnesota 70.70% UAB 69.90% Tennessee 69.10% W Virginia 67.80% N Mex State 66.10% Florida St 65.60% Iowa State 63.80% Akron 63.40% Northwestern 62.80% UCLA 62.60% Colorado 56.60% New Mexico 55.80% GA Tech 53.40% LA Monroe 49.70% Maryland 48.90% Wyoming 48.30% E Michigan 45.30% Air Force 40.70% Georgia State 38.00% Miami (OH) 37.30% Temple 36.40% UNLV 36.20% Central Mich 35.90% Arkansas 34.50% Arizona St 32.60% BYU 29.10% California 26.60% Old Dominion 24.90% Cincinnati 22.90% LA Lafayette 22.90% Nebraska 18.80% Idaho 15.90% Florida Intl 13.70% Syracuse 13.70% Pittsburgh 9.80% Boston Col 9.70% Ball State 8.80% S Alabama 8.50% Hawaii 6.60% Missouri 6.20% GA Southern 5.80% Tulsa 3.10% N Carolina 2.40% Bowling Grn 1.30% Illinois 1.30% Rutgers 1.00% Kent State 0.70% Connecticut 0.30% Rice 0.30% Baylor 0.20% Nevada 0.20% Texas State 0.10% Charlotte 0.00% Coastal Car 0.00% E Carolina 0.00% Kansas 0.00% Mississippi 0.00% Oregon St 0.00% San Jose St 0.00% TX El Paso 0.00% U Mass 0.00% This still sums to about 79 eligible. Back to Top Tymaster General User Member Since: 3/24/2017 Location: Chillicothe, OH Post Count: 210 Status: Offline     RE: 2017 Bowl Eligibility Tracker    Posted: 10/9/2017 4:11:38 PM  What's the formula here? Not questioning it, really, as I look at the list it seems right but yet some 5-1 teams have "100%" chances and isn't that mathematically impossible? Also, some of the teams at over 75% can't really be that close. Back to Top PhiTau74 General User Member Since: 8/6/2010 Location: Columbia, SC Post Count: 455 Status: Offline     RE: 2017 Bowl Eligibility Tracker    Posted: 10/9/2017 5:48:53 PM  All I know is South Carolina is also 4-2 but they still have to play at TN, Georgia, with Clemson and Florida so I assume if you forecast out at 6-6 your pretty much in a bowl. Back to Top Tymaster General User Member Since: 3/24/2017 Location: Chillicothe, OH Post Count: 210 Status: Offline     RE: 2017 Bowl Eligibility Tracker    Posted: 10/9/2017 6:57:50 PM  Well, 5-7 can get you a bowl, so using that logic all tteams with 5 wins should be 100%. The fallacy is that teams with 4 wins last week were given 100%. That's not possible. You can't say 100% that any team won't lose all of their remaining games. It's obviously more likely that I'll win the lottery and then be struck by lightning, but still not 100% absolutely positive that OSU won't lose all of their remaining games. Back to Top mf279801 General User Member Since: 8/6/2010 Location: Newark, DE Post Count: 2,452 Status: Offline     RE: 2017 Bowl Eligibility Tracker    Posted: 10/10/2017 12:21:16 AM  Tymaster wrote: Well, 5-7 can get you a bowl, so using that logic all tteams with 5 wins should be 100%. The fallacy is that teams with 4 wins last week were given 100%. That's not possible. You can't say 100% that any team won't lose all of their remaining games. It's obviously more likely that I'll win the lottery and then be struck by lightning, but still not 100% absolutely positive that OSU won't lose all of their remaining games. The website is clearly basing their bowl eligibility model on their (current) projections of a teams odds to win a sufficient number of their remaining games to have won >=50% of their games (counting no more than 1 win against an FCS team). They are also clearly rounding their results off at the tenth of a percent, such that 100.0 doesn't literally equal a certainty, but is instead >99.9% likely. Back to Top Victory General User Member Since: 3/10/2012 Post Count: 1,881 Status: Offline     RE: 2017 Bowl Eligibility Tracker    Posted: 10/15/2017 11:27:54 AM  To clarify this is just using a predictive algorithm to determine the odds of winning 6 games (not counting 2 1AA wins). If there were a school on bowl probation it would show a 0. This now sums to 80. Some 6-6 G5 teams will probably stay home. 5-7 probably isn't going to work for anyone. There is a long way to go though. 1 Central FL 100.00% 2 S Florida 100.00% 3 NC State 100.00% 4 Clemson 100.00% 5 TX Christian 100.00% 6 Oklahoma St 100.00% 7 Oklahoma 100.00% 8 Ohio State 100.00% 9 Penn State 100.00% 10 Wisconsin 100.00% 11 Colorado St 100.00% 12 San Diego St 100.00% 13 Stanford 100.00% 14 Washington 100.00% 15 Wash State 100.00% 16 USC 100.00% 17 Georgia 100.00% 18 Alabama 100.00% 19 Miami (FL) 99.90% 20 Notre Dame 99.90% 21 S Carolina 99.90% 22 Auburn 99.90% 23 App State 99.90% 24 Memphis 99.80% 25 VA Tech 99.80% 26 Toledo 99.80% 27 Michigan 99.70% 28 Troy 99.70% 29 Marshall 99.50% 30 W Michigan 99.50% 31 Ohio 99.00% 32 Miss State 98.90% 33 Boise State 98.80% 34 Texas A&M 98.50% 35 Navy 98.40% 36 Michigan St 98.40% 37 Fresno St 98.00% 38 LSU 97.90% 39 S Mississippi 97.70% 40 North Texas 97.60% 41 Army 97.50% 42 N Illinois 97.40% 43 Houston 96.40% 44 Kentucky 96.00% 45 TX-San Ant 95.60% 46 Arkansas St 93.50% 47 Virginia 93.30% 48 Utah 92.10% 49 Fla Atlantic 91.80% 50 W Kentucky 90.90% 51 S Methodist 90.60% 52 Arizona 90.60% 53 Wake Forest 89.60% 54 Iowa 89.20% 55 UAB 89.20% 56 Oregon 86.80% 57 LA Tech 86.60% 58 Louisville 85.90% 59 Texas Tech 85.70% 60 W Virginia 84.50% 61 Purdue 83.70% 62 Northwestern 83.50% 63 Texas 81.80% 64 Florida St 80.90% 65 Duke 80.30% 66 Middle Tenn 80.20% 67 Wyoming 78.00% 68 N Mex State 73.10% 69 Iowa State 73.00% 70 California 72.50% 71 Indiana 68.20% 72 Arizona St 67.40% 73 Buffalo 65.90% 74 Georgia State 65.40% 75 Akron 61.90% 76 Tulane 60.50% 77 Kansas St 59.70% 78 Tennessee 54.60% 79 Minnesota 53.80% 80 GA Tech 52.80% 81 Florida 51.90% 82 Syracuse 51.80% 83 Colorado 51.70% 84 E Michigan 50.80% 85 Vanderbilt 47.50% 86 Florida Intl 47.00% 87 Utah State 46.80% 88 UCLA 42.90% 89 Air Force 39.60% 90 S Alabama 36.90% 91 New Mexico 35.60% 92 UNLV 35.20% 93 Arkansas 33.30% 94 Boston Col 26.50% 95 Maryland 23.10% 96 Central Mich 22.80% 97 LA Lafayette 22.50% 98 BYU 22.40% 99 Cincinnati 19.60% 100 Idaho 17.30% 101 LA Monroe 14.60% 102 Tulsa 14.50% 103 Miami (OH) 13.70% 104 Old Dominion 12.90% 105 Nebraska 10.70% 106 Temple 8.10% 107 Ball State 8.00% 108 Missouri 7.40% 109 Hawaii 6.20% 110 Pittsburgh 3.70% 111 Rutgers 1.50% 112 GA Southern 1.40% 113 Kent State 1.30% 114 Connecticut 1.10% 115 Rice 0.40% 116 N Carolina 0.20% 117 Nevada 0.20% 118 Illinois 0.10% 119 Bowling Grn 0.10% 120 E Carolina 0.00% 121 Baylor 0.00% 122 Kansas 0.00% 123 Charlotte 0.00% 124 TX El Paso 0.00% 125 U Mass 0.00% 126 San Jose St 0.00% 127 Oregon St 0.00% 128 Mississippi 0.00% 129 Coastal Car 0.00% 130 Texas State 0.00% Back to Top allen General User Member Since: 1/24/2006 Post Count: 4,630 Status: Offline     RE: 2017 Bowl Eligibility Tracker    Posted: 10/16/2017 1:42:36 AM  We knew that we were going to be bowl eligible from the schedule. Who cares? Let's win the MAC. Nobody despises to lose more than I do. That's got me into trouble over the years, but it also made a man of mediocre ability into a pretty good coach. Woody Hayes Back to Top Showing Replies:   1 - 9  of 9 Posts Jump to Page:   1 View Other 'Ohio Football' Topics                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               WHO'S ONLINE There are 256 Active Visitors on BobcatAttack.com 255 Guests 1 Registered User:   GoCats105 There are no other users looking at this page.

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