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Topic: RE: General Chaos

Topic: RE: General Chaos

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Monroe Slavin
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Oxnard, CA
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/15/2016 12:52:37 AM

F a c t s.

Can't wait to examine our 2015 record.

Are those 2013 and 2014 top 15%?

How many coaches can put up two years like our 2013 and 2014 and keep their jobs?

The only defense is 'better than it used to be.' If our academics performed so would you be so 'no problem' about it.

Last Edited: 9/15/2016 12:57:22 AM by Monroe Slavin

Where's the band?!
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BillyTheCat
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/15/2016 6:44:58 AM

catfan28 wrote:

L.C. wrote:

1. Boise State .856
2. Brigham Young .715
3. Cincinnati .695
4. Houston .667
5. Navy .654
6. Northern Ill .644
7. Ohio .585
8. East Carolina .577
9. Nevada .569
Tulsa .569
11. Toledo .565
12. CMU .546
13. Marshall .543
14. Fresno St. .535
15. BG .527
16. La-Lafayette .516
17. MTSU .512
18. San Diego State .512
19. La-Tech .508
20. Ball State .504
21. Troy .500

I'm not Frank's biggest fan, and I think many things could be better. But to me, this list is telling and somewhat surprising. Relative to our peers, we are maximizing our results at a high level. Tough to argue with the facts.

I'll take being right there with ECU, Nevada and Navy any day of the week. Show me this list back in 1995 and I'd laugh you out of an empty Peden Stadium.

Again, I'll ask what is our record against the other teams on this list?

Bcat2
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/15/2016 8:12:09 AM

BillyTheCat wrote:

catfan28 wrote:

L.C. wrote:

Again, I'll ask what is our record against the other teams on this list?

Then you do the same to all the teams on the list and things will work out about the same. Bob Stoops, 180-47, 9 B12CC has a losing record in bowls. Tom Osborne, 255-49, 12 B12CC had a losing record in bowls. Given that for thirty years before Solich Ohio won .342 vs MAC scheduling, Ohio has come a long way. Among the top half, you lose to BG, you beat NIU, you take that. You lose to Western Michigan, you beat Marshall, you take that. You lose to Minn, You beat Akron, you take that. Represent well, play a fine game vs a very good team in the bowl, you take that. Welcome to the top half.

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

BillyTheCat
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/15/2016 10:57:11 AM

Bcat2 wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

catfan28 wrote:

L.C. wrote:

Again, I'll ask what is our record against the other teams on this list?

Nice deflection of the question! And NO, they would not necessarily all look the same. Schools such as Navy play many more games against P5 teams than OHIO has, same for several of these schools. All I am asking for is a comparison of how OHIO has done against this peer group. Why does that scare you BCAT?

BillyTheCat
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/15/2016 12:01:07 PM

Well, here is the break down of this, so the question is are we really #7 on this list, after all this list is taking overall winning % into account, and we know several of these schools play more P5's than we do that we "rank" ahead.

Against this peer group we are a combined total of 16-25 over the past 11 seasons, this is a winning % of .390% and in only 4 of the past 11 seasons have we had winning records against this group of teams.

05 - 1-3
06 - 1-2
07 - 2-1
08 - 0-2
09 - 3-2
10 - 1-3
11 - 3-2
12 - 1-2
13 - 1-3
14 - 0-4
15 - 3-1

L.C.
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Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/15/2016 1:14:03 PM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

Even by LC's slanted measure, we're Even by LC's slanted measure, we're 7th out of 21, so 33%, not 15%. ...

Note that that is only against the top 21. What about the forty G5 teams that have losing records over the last ten year?

Monroe Slavin wrote:

... L.C. is going to go nuts and claim Akron was peer level that year. No--5-7 with wins over JMU, Miami, kents, UMass.

No, I'm going to yawn. All teams have wins. All teams have losses. The whole point of a ranking like this is that it puts those in perspective. It gives a much more accurate perspective than hand picking individual losses and labeling those as "bad", and hand picking individual wins and saying "they don't count".

BillyTheCat wrote:

Good data, Billy. Using that method, Ohio may well rank lower than #7 in that group. Go ahead and do the calculations for the other teams. It will be interesting. 39% might put Ohio at 13th or so in that group, if it were a conference. Once you add back in the bottom 40 of the G5, that still puts Ohio at 13/60 or so, or at the 78% percentile, rather than 88% percentile. Either way, however, Ohio is not "below average".

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

BillyTheCat
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/15/2016 2:01:02 PM

L.C. wrote:

Monroe Slavin wrote:

Even by LC's slanted measure, we're Even by LC's slanted measure, we're 7th out of 21, so 33%, not 15%. ...

Note that that is only against the top 21. What about the forty G5 teams that have losing records over the last ten year?

Monroe Slavin wrote:

... L.C. is going to go nuts and claim Akron was peer level that year. No--5-7 with wins over JMU, Miami, kents, UMass.

BillyTheCat wrote:

Well since you brought up if we were in a conference, there are 5 teams from the MAC on this list, we are 11-20 versus those teams in this time period for a .354%, which is lower than our record against the rest of these teams. We also have more games in this demographic than any other MAC school.

Monroe Slavin
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Oxnard, CA
Post Count: 9,121

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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/15/2016 8:05:07 PM

Gentlemens--

More later...But for now, I'm really disappointed that no one has taken up the challenge of the FACTS of our 2013 and 2014 results.

Also, no one's solidly answered my three questions.

Anyone going to be adventurous, going to leave the land of I-like-my-conclusion-so-I'm-not-going-to-consider-other-information..anyone going to directly respond?

Caveat: Responding may require that you leave the shore and examine the quality of our o-pponents.

L.C.
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/15/2016 9:04:46 PM

Paul Graham wrote:

Dear LC, Bcat2, OCF, etc..

If you want Monroe to stop posting the same thing several thousand times, stop driving him insane by refusing to accept some basic truths about the state of the program over the last 3 or so years. ...

Paul, what basic truths would you suggest that I accept? I don't think that the program has been perfect, and I've said as much. In particular, I think I have been clear that I haven't been impressed, overall, with the new defense. The old defense was consistent, gave up quite a few yards, but rarely gave up huge amounts of points. The new defense hits both extremes, sometimes giving up huge amounts, as it did against Texas State, (or BG, WMU, or Marshall), and other times producing stunningly good performances, as against Kansas. Is that a good tradeoff? I don't think so. Certainly the good performances are quickly forgotten, and the bad ones are remembered. If they can't get rid of the bad results, they need to go back to the old defense.

Next, I would agree that no one was happy with the problems of 2013, but I think those problems were unique to that year, and have been addressed. Third, I expected an off year in 2014, and that's what we had. 2014 was not as good as I had hoped, but not worse than I feared, either. Then 2015 got the program back on track. No, they didn't win all their games, or the MACC, but they did solve most of their problems, save for the extreme results produced by the defense, which were at their worst in the second half against WMU, and against BG.

Now we are to 2016, and I expect a very good team, with another team at least as good in 2017. Despite the first game, I still expect Ohio to be good this year, and I think we saw evidence against Kansas that they can be very good. I will be very disappointed if Ohio doesn't win the East this year. Can they win the MACC? First they have to get there, but if they do, they may not be favored, but they have a shot. The key question to me is this - if this new defense is ever going to work, they need to be able to never have games like they had against Texas State, or BG and WMU last year. Can they prevent more of those games? If not, the defense may be their downfall. People on here like to grumble about the offense on here, for whatever reason, but the defense is what scares me.

Anyway, Paul, I know that Monroe likes to pretend that everyone thinks that Solich is perfect, and that the coaching staff is the best in the country, and that everyone thinks everything is perfect, but honestly, do you ever see anyone making those claims? Everyone sees flaws, and that certainly includes me. If you have other flaws you think I'm missing, please feel free to point them out.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Monroe Slavin
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Oxnard, CA
Post Count: 9,121

Status: Offline

RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/16/2016 12:58:26 AM

Let's move past those who can't recognize really bad football and who take projections for the next few years as reality.

Let's move to 2015:

Wins over cupcakes: Idaho, SE Louisiana (later lost to Incarnate Word, Abil Christian), miami, kents, Ball State

Wins over peer level teams: Marshall, Akron, N Illinois

Losses v overwhelming opponents: none

Losses to peer level teams: Minnesota, W Michigan (by 35), Buffalo (by 24), BG (by 38), Appalachian State

Normalized...cupcakes removed...record: 3-5, with 3 losses by 24 or more.

Monroe Slavin
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Oxnard, CA
Post Count: 9,121

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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/16/2016 1:02:58 AM

Let's summarized the normalized...cupcakes removed... record over the last 3 years

2013: 2-5 with 3 losses by 27 or more
2014: 2-6 with 4 losses by 18 or more
2015: 3-5 with 3 losses by 24 or more

Summary: 7-16 with 9 losses by 18 or more.

FACTS. Still thinking we're not in the realm of mediocrity here?

Monroe Slavin
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Oxnard, CA
Post Count: 9,121

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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/16/2016 1:14:28 AM

In fairness, I looked very, very quickly at the records for MTSU and Troy, # 17 and #21 on the list of 21 in this thread. They have some bad losses but the level of competition is better than ours and the number of crashing losses is a lot less. Plus I wonder if they have staffs which have been there for 8-11 years.

Then, I looked at ECU which is #8 compared to our #7 on that list. Their schedule is much tougher than ours and their record is a lot better than ours with very little in the way of big losses and some really nice wins against a much tougher schedule than ours.

OUBob
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Location: Powell, OH
Post Count: 278

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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/17/2016 12:22:37 AM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

If Solich wins a MACC this year, I'll be humbled and re-appraise.

One cold, dark Detroit night this year, this will make me the hap-hap-happiest sumb*tch in the Motor City leaving Ford Field.

Monroe Slavin wrote:

Keep doing that analysis without regard to the quality of the opponent and achievement against the #1 goal, a MAC title.

Screw a MACC. I want the fattest bowl game. See Independence Bowl. No one remembers a G5 champion. Who was the Sun Belt champ last year? Right? If a MACC happens, great. I'll be there but, Dude, you're on an island there. Maybe you should enjoy the coconuts.

Who looks at a successful system and thinks (let alone expresses) "this thing isn't performing to peak potential! Lets scrap the whole damn thing for a system consisting of nothing but variables, where the odds of success are stacked against us?" I don't have answers, I don't know. Maybe look at specific reasons why there is under performance? A tweak or two first would probably be prudent... (How many have there been in Solichs' tenure? It HAS ben stale since TT shot himself in the ....)

How many P5 opponents on the schedule? I guarantee Schauss isn't turning them down. They aren't calling. We have 2 this year. An honor. Don't give us crap about KS being a fluffer. Now way to know they would be that bad. Just like there was no way to know TN would be this good. If we wanted tOSU this year, we would have to have been talking with them, what, when Urban was still a G5 coach? We have no say in conference scheduling, so scheduling TXST and GW are completely responsible for the poor opponent quality. Definitely gotta be Solichs fault. He allows all D1 schools to schedule D2. Sooo, can the D2 thing. I'm all for it. Why should those schools be allowed a money game?

Monroe Slavin wrote:

I'm not the obstinate one.

HA!

CLIFFS: Gotta compete for championships to win 'em. Gotta be relevant in November. Tweaks to obtain desired performance.

Last Edited: 9/17/2016 12:28:44 AM by OUBob

n00b

OUBob
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/17/2016 12:53:05 AM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

Aah, narrowed to two seasons, 7-5 and 6-6? Barkley says: "that's turrible. Just harrible."

Quality of opponents ain't gonna change. It can't. unless the MAC gets better (won't)? or we leave (for where?)

Monroe: you want SOS? BIGMANZ? Answer my two questions. Make our conference relevant, all of your concerns become relevant.

n00b

ohiocatfan1
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 10/8/2016 6:38:08 PM

I realize there are many improvements to Peden that need to be made but if the sound system is not improved I will not be a season ticket holder next season. I have been to a H.S. game every Friday this season and they are all better than Peden (which is to say they have one that is half way audible).

Monroe Slavin
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Location: Oxnard, CA
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 10/15/2016 5:39:59 PM

Have we beaten a team this year which has beaten another FBS team.

L.C., bcat2--Tell us again how Solich 12 years has us on the rise.

Would someone, please, do my normalized/cupcakes-removed analysis of us for 2016?

And would someone please respond to my analysis of each of the past 3-4 years with cupcakes removed?

Casper71
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 10/15/2016 6:37:22 PM

Is there now a qb controversy?

Last Edited: 10/15/2016 6:42:16 PM by Casper71

BillyTheCat
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 10/15/2016 7:41:54 PM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

catfan28
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 10/15/2016 7:55:11 PM

IMO, Maxwell is the guy moving forward. He showed promise today, despite the INT (and other near INT). Windham...what happened?!?!

OU_Country
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 10/15/2016 9:21:46 PM

catfan28 wrote:

IMO, Maxwell is the guy moving forward. He showed promise today, despite the INT (and other near INT). Windham...what happened?!?!

100% Agree. I said it at the game. No slight on Greg at all. Maxwell is simply better, and anyone watching today knows it. He looks like a prototype QB, and the team moved better with him under center. The two headed QB is never a good idea in my opinion, especially in this case when one player is showing to be better.

allen
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 10/15/2016 11:29:02 PM

Bcat2 wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

catfan28 wrote:

L.C. wrote:

Again, I'll ask what is our record against the other teams on this list?

Appalachian State was not a very good team, they had a cupcake schedule. We outplayed them and should have won and we played an average game besides two big plays from Poling and Johnson.

Nobody despises to lose more than I do. That's got me into trouble over the years, but it also made a man of mediocre ability into a pretty good coach. Woody Hayes

Jeff McKinney
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 10/15/2016 11:59:23 PM

Appalachian St not a good team? Totally disagree.

Deciduous Forest Cat
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 10/16/2016 9:51:05 PM

allen wrote:

Bcat2 wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

catfan28 wrote:

L.C. wrote:

Again, I'll ask what is our record against the other teams on this list?

Appalachian State was not a very good team, they had a cupcake schedule. We outplayed them and should have won and we played an average game besides two big plays from Poling and Johnson.

What did we have about 200 total yards of offense in that game? I hope that's not what we would consider out playing anyone

BEG
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 10/17/2016 5:01:36 PM

Casper71 wrote:

Is there now a qb controversy?

I certainly hope not. Windham deserves the start.

I hope these coaches do not choose to bench the guy they have been praising and touting as a leader all year long. Do their words mean nothing?
This is also the guy that the players consider to be their leader. What a way to divide your team at a crucial gut check time in the season. I heard from a multitude of players that were angry Greg got taken out so early. Especially when FS said that it "didn't feel like it was a great coaching job" and that "the system we're operating out of has to give the players the best chance". With that being said, having Windham only play for 1Q was not giving him the best chance. Maxwell played for 3Q and we still lost.

Monroe Slavin
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Oxnard, CA
Post Count: 9,121

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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 10/17/2016 5:57:24 PM

My quick observation is that our best running back (healthy or injured) is Hardy (speed, power, drive) and our best qb is Maxwell (arm strength, poise in the pocket, field vision).

These judgments are on somewhat limited data (plays). But what I've seen points that way.

What disappoints is that it seems that our coaches don't play the best players.

How did we have Hardy not even on the running back depth chart and slated to play Defensive back?

Windham has been okay. He's been most effective as a runner. He has a ton of carries. Good teams are going to take to account for him and not let him beat them by running--pretty much what EMU did.

Let's see what Maxwell can do. We haven't been putting points on the board.

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