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Author Message OU_Country General User Member Since: 12/6/2005 Location: On the road between Athens and Madison County Post Count: 8,320 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/14/2015 10:13:12 AM  Monroe Slavin wrote: So that OCF will not be angry at me for not making any kind of season prediction (he has anger mgmt, apparently), I stand by my prediction that we'll be tough come MAC tourney time. Growing pains and a bit uneven along the way but BetterCallSaul at the end. If, and from what I've seen so far, this is a big IF...but if they start playing better D, and if they cut out TO's the way Saul wants them to, I can agree with you. Right now, the D part is my biggest doubt. I'm still having fun watching this bunch regardless of the D. Back to Top OUVan General User Member Since: 12/20/2004 Location: Bethesda, MD Post Count: 5,580 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/14/2015 11:45:27 AM  Some interesting numbers from Ken Pomeroy on our remaining opponents. OPPONENTS OFFENSE 1) There are only four opponents on our schedule left that are above average (ranked in top 100) of offensive efficiency. To put that in perspective, we have played 3 teams so far that are top 100 (Tulsa, Florida St, St. Bonaventure). 2) We are terrible in forcing turnovers (#314) and the MAC in general is very good at not turning the ball over. WMU and BSU are the only 200+ ranked teams. 3) With Kent and Toledo as the exceptions, the MAC can not shoot from inside the arc. A bunch of MAC teams shoot the ball very well from behind the arc. Of the teams that shoot well from outside only Akron shoots a lot from there. They take the 14th highest percentage of shots from 3pt land. Central has taken more than 50% of their shots from 3. Since they aren't one of the better shooting teams from behind the arc this goes a long way to showing why they have played so poorly. The other is their defense is atrocious. 4) The MAC can not shoot free throws with UT, KSU, & MU as the exceptions. The good news is the bad shooting teams are really good at getting to the line while the good shooting teams generally aren't. OPPONENTS DEFENSE 1) The MAC this year is a mediocre conference on defense. Only Akron and Eastern are good and only CMU and Miami (as well as us) are bad on defense. Everyone else has a defensive efficiency rating from between 148-177. 2) The really good news for us is that the MAC overall is terrible in defensing the 3 point shot. Only Akron is ranked in the top 120 and they are really good at #5 (25.2%). The league does do a good job defending the 2 however. 3) Jaaron should be happy to hear that we only face five teams in MAC play that are good at turning teams over (NIUx2, MUx2, EMU). Miami turns their opponents over 24% of the time which is really good. The problem is that if Miami doesn't cause a turnover they give up a basket. These are just numbers but they do paint a picture. From looking at everything I think it's safe to say that Akron is the favorite. They are going to be tough to beat particularly when they get all their guys back. But there is no one else on our schedule that you look at and think that we'll have to play out of our heads to beat. If everyone stays healthy I think we'll be favored in every home game with the possible exception of Akron and we'll be the underdog in every road game. Back to Top Pataskala General User Member Since: 7/8/2010 Location: At least six feet away from anybody else Post Count: 9,152 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/14/2015 12:17:46 PM  OUVan wrote: Some interesting numbers from Ken Pomeroy on our remaining opponents. OPPONENTS OFFENSE 1) There are only four opponents on our schedule left that are above average (ranked in top 100) of offensive efficiency. To put that in perspective, we have played 3 teams so far that are top 100 (Tulsa, Florida St, St. Bonaventure). 2) We are terrible in forcing turnovers (#314) and the MAC in general is very good at not turning the ball over. WMU and BSU are the only 200+ ranked teams. 3) With Kent and Toledo as the exceptions, the MAC can not shoot from inside the arc. A bunch of MAC teams shoot the ball very well from behind the arc. Of the teams that shoot well from outside only Akron shoots a lot from there. They take the 14th highest percentage of shots from 3pt land. Central has taken more than 50% of their shots from 3. Since they aren't one of the better shooting teams from behind the arc this goes a long way to showing why they have played so poorly. The other is their defense is atrocious. 4) The MAC can not shoot free throws with UT, KSU, & MU as the exceptions. The good news is the bad shooting teams are really good at getting to the line while the good shooting teams generally aren't. OPPONENTS DEFENSE 1) The MAC this year is a mediocre conference on defense. Only Akron and Eastern are good and only CMU and Miami (as well as us) are bad on defense. Everyone else has a defensive efficiency rating from between 148-177. 2) The really good news for us is that the MAC overall is terrible in defensing the 3 point shot. Only Akron is ranked in the top 120 and they are really good at #5 (25.2%). The league does do a good job defending the 2 however. 3) Jaaron should be happy to hear that we only face five teams in MAC play that are good at turning teams over (NIUx2, MUx2, EMU). Miami turns their opponents over 24% of the time which is really good. The problem is that if Miami doesn't cause a turnover they give up a basket. These are just numbers but they do paint a picture. From looking at everything I think it's safe to say that Akron is the favorite. They are going to be tough to beat particularly when they get all their guys back. But there is no one else on our schedule that you look at and think that we'll have to play out of our heads to beat. If everyone stays healthy I think we'll be favored in every home game with the possible exception of Akron and we'll be the underdog in every road game. To add to this, here are the current RPIs as calculated by CBS: EMU -- 65 Kent -- 77 OHIO -- 108 Buffalo -- 131 Akron -- 139 NIU -- 146 Toledo -- 173 ----------------(O$U -- 203) BG -- 214 WMU -- 229 BSU -- 234 Fiami -- 249 CMU --335 I know these don't mean a whole lot right now, but it shows that no MAC team has really been dominant and Ohio will likely be right in the thick of it. It also shows that the MAC is lined up for yet another one-bid year for the Dance. (And when was the last time Ohio was 95 places ahead of O$U for RPI?) We will get by. We will get by. We will get by. We will survive. Back to Top OU_Country General User Member Since: 12/6/2005 Location: On the road between Athens and Madison County Post Count: 8,320 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/14/2015 2:05:44 PM  And, the preseason conference favorite is at 335. Despite missing Fowler up until this weekend, that's bad. Back to Top The Optimist General User Member Since: 3/16/2007 Location: CLE Post Count: 5,552 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/15/2015 2:41:30 PM  The Optimist wrote: In about a month, we have a four game stretch where we play Ohio Dominican, Jackson State, Arkansas Pine Bluff and UC Riverside consecutively We're going to win some more games this season. The Prophet http://www.athensmessenger.com/sports/ohiouniversity/camp... "Following Tuesday, Ohio will round out 2015 with home ‘buy’ games against Jackson State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff and UC Riverside. All four games are certainly winnable. If the Bobcats sweep all four, they’ll have a five-game winning streak and a 9-3 mark heading into MAC play. Ohio was just 10-20 in 2014-15. “I try not to (look ahead), but I’m a human being,” Phillips said. “I’ve done the math. I would think 9-3, given the constraints of our schedule, is certainly not behind pace at this point and probably not significantly ahead either. “I think we’ve put ourselves in a good position, now we have to take advantage of it.”" I've seen crazier things happen. Back to Top Jeff McKinney Moderator Member Since: 11/12/2004 Post Count: 6,047 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/15/2015 4:19:35 PM  EMU may have an RPI of 65 currently, but they are NOT the best team in the conference. Back to Top RSBobcat General User Member Since: 8/22/2010 Location: Columbus, OH Post Count: 4,401 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/15/2015 10:34:09 PM  14 to go RS Bobcat Back to Top OUVan General User Member Since: 12/20/2004 Location: Bethesda, MD Post Count: 5,580 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/16/2015 10:17:58 AM  Jeff McKinney wrote: EMU may have an RPI of 65 currently, but they are NOT the best team in the conference. I think Pomeroy rankings are more accurate: 72. Akron 106. Kent State 141. Toledo 150. Eastern Michigan 151. Ohio 156. Western Michigan 163. Buffalo 167. Northern Illinois 175. Ball State 192. Central Michigan 204. Bowling Green 207. Miami I think Kent is possibly a little high but that might be just my anti-Senderoff bias showing through. Back to Top OU_Country General User Member Since: 12/6/2005 Location: On the road between Athens and Madison County Post Count: 8,320 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/16/2015 10:47:38 AM  RSBobcat wrote: 14 to go Means going 14-6 the rest of the way if it's to happen in the regular season. Back to Top OUVan General User Member Since: 12/20/2004 Location: Bethesda, MD Post Count: 5,580 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/16/2015 3:46:18 PM  OU_Country wrote: RSBobcat wrote: 14 to go Means going 14-6 the rest of the way if it's to happen in the regular season. We should win the next three which means 11-7 in conference. Even if we go 10-8 that should be enough to get a home game in round 1 which should get us there. Back to Top RSBobcat General User Member Since: 8/22/2010 Location: Columbus, OH Post Count: 4,401 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/16/2015 8:51:11 PM  OUVan wrote: OU_Country wrote: RSBobcat wrote: 14 to go Means going 14-6 the rest of the way if it's to happen in the regular season. We should win the next three which means 11-7 in conference. Even if we go 10-8 that should be enough to get a home game in round 1 which should get us there. And then there is the CBI potential mulligan....... RS Bobcat Back to Top RSBobcat General User Member Since: 8/22/2010 Location: Columbus, OH Post Count: 4,401 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/17/2015 11:01:18 PM  13 to go RS Bobcat Back to Top 100%Cat General User Member Since: 1/17/2013 Post Count: 2,491 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/18/2015 7:31:07 AM  Hate to be pessimistic, but the last two games make me doubt we get to 20. I'm thinking more like 18 might be about all we get. Back to Top OU_Country General User Member Since: 12/6/2005 Location: On the road between Athens and Madison County Post Count: 8,320 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/18/2015 9:15:41 AM  100%Cat wrote: Hate to be pessimistic, but the last two games make me doubt we get to 20. I'm thinking more like 18 might be about all we get. I didn't get to see any, but it didn't sound like a stellar performance. I'm not sure that was a game to really judge much on. These games right before Christmas, and right after finals are usually kind of snooze fests. At least the guys got the win against a team, in theory, that they were supposed to beat. Back to Top OUVan General User Member Since: 12/20/2004 Location: Bethesda, MD Post Count: 5,580 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/18/2015 9:23:41 AM  100%Cat wrote: Hate to be pessimistic, but the last two games make me doubt we get to 20. I'm thinking more like 18 might be about all we get. The rest of the MAC, save Akron, is looking exactly like us. Back to Top RSBobcat General User Member Since: 8/22/2010 Location: Columbus, OH Post Count: 4,401 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/19/2015 1:34:28 AM  OUVan wrote: 100%Cat wrote: Hate to be pessimistic, but the last two games make me doubt we get to 20. I'm thinking more like 18 might be about all we get. The rest of the MAC, save Akron, is looking exactly like us. And you have to give the J State D and team hustle some credit RS Bobcat Back to Top RSBobcat General User Member Since: 8/22/2010 Location: Columbus, OH Post Count: 4,401 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/21/2015 11:15:05 PM  12 to go RS Bobcat Back to Top OU_Country General User Member Since: 12/6/2005 Location: On the road between Athens and Madison County Post Count: 8,320 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/22/2015 1:47:04 PM  I guess we'll see if 11-7 or 12-6 is possible in MAC Play. I like watching this group a lot, but there will have to be improvement in some areas for that to happen. Back to Top RSBobcat General User Member Since: 8/22/2010 Location: Columbus, OH Post Count: 4,401 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/22/2015 10:49:00 PM  OU_Country wrote: I guess we'll see if 11-7 or 12-6 is possible in MAC Play. I like watching this group a lot, but there will have to be improvement in some areas for that to happen. OK - So you're still in as a "doubter". I'm in as I think there will be those improvements. I also think there could be some erratic performance swings through the MAC season - hopefully on the upswing near the end.... RS Bobcat Back to Top OU_Country General User Member Since: 12/6/2005 Location: On the road between Athens and Madison County Post Count: 8,320 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/23/2015 9:20:08 AM  I'm not necessarily a doubter. I really like this team, and like watching it. I have concerns about being able to defend well enough to win on a consistent basis. I have concerns, developed in the last couple weeks, with getting enough out of the bench to grind it out during conference play. I have no concerns about scoring, and having fun watching this bunch though. I'm just not sure they'll manage 11-7 or 12-6 to get to that 20 win number before Cleveland. I "predicted" 10-8 in conference play, and I think 8-4 in non-conf. They're ahead of my predictions by one game if they win on the 30th. Maybe I'm just tempering my expectations after last year. Maybe I'm being "realistic". Either way, this is more fun that last season, and for now, I'm good with that. Back to Top Campus Flow General User Member Since: 12/20/2004 Location: Alexandria, VA Post Count: 4,952 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/24/2015 1:35:15 AM  20 wins counting a couple of post season victories is doable. Figure a 9-3 regular season, 1 win in the MAC tournament and 1 win in the CIT/CBI. Ohio needs to go 9-9 in MAC play to hit 20 wins. Win an extra game in the post season and the requirement for MAC play is 8-10. Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended 2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round 2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl 2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086 Back to Top The Optimist General User Member Since: 3/16/2007 Location: CLE Post Count: 5,552 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/24/2015 10:36:34 AM  Uncle Wes wrote: 20 wins counting a couple of post season victories is doable. Figure a 9-3 regular season, 1 win in the MAC tournament and 1 win in the CIT/CBI. Ohio needs to go 9-9 in MAC play to hit 20 wins. Win an extra game in the post season and the requirement for MAC play is 8-10. Bingo. The easy OOC games and potential games after the regular season add up quick. I've seen crazier things happen. Back to Top Alan Swank General User Member Since: 12/11/2004 Location: Athens, OH Post Count: 7,023 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/24/2015 11:44:40 AM  The Optimist wrote: Uncle Wes wrote: 20 wins counting a couple of post season victories is doable. Figure a 9-3 regular season, 1 win in the MAC tournament and 1 win in the CIT/CBI. Ohio needs to go 9-9 in MAC play to hit 20 wins. Win an extra game in the post season and the requirement for MAC play is 8-10. Bingo. The easy OOC games and potential games after the regular season add up quick. Like a bowl game, 20 win seasons aren't what they used to be. Like an invitation to a bowl game, if 20 wins is the standard for success in basketball, things have really gotten watered down. When Danny and his crew won 20 four years in a row, they only played 32, 28, 30 and 30 games and won 23, 20, 22 and 22. When you are guaranteed to play 31 games, 20 isn't that big a deal any longer although I'll certainly take it over last year's 10 win season. And as a side note, 122 D 1 schools had 20 wins last year including 8 in the MAC. Last Edited: 12/24/2015 12:08:11 PM by Alan Swank Back to Top OUVan General User Member Since: 12/20/2004 Location: Bethesda, MD Post Count: 5,580 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/24/2015 12:08:53 PM  Alan Swank wrote: The Optimist wrote: Uncle Wes wrote: 20 wins counting a couple of post season victories is doable. Figure a 9-3 regular season, 1 win in the MAC tournament and 1 win in the CIT/CBI. Ohio needs to go 9-9 in MAC play to hit 20 wins. Win an extra game in the post season and the requirement for MAC play is 8-10. Bingo. The easy OOC games and potential games after the regular season add up quick. Like a bowl game, 20 win seasons aren't what they used to be. Like an invitation to a bowl game, if 20 wins is the standard for success in basketball, things have really gotten watered down. When Danny and his crew won 20 four years in a row, they only played 32, 28, 30 and 30 games and won 23, 20, 22 and 22. When you are guaranteed to play 31 games, 20 isn't that big a deal any longer. 20 is better than 10. Considering Larry got fired after a 19 win season and TOS was on the hot-seat after 20 win seasons I don't see anyone claiming that 20 win seasons are the standard for success. Heck, we were disappointed with a 25 win season a couple of years ago. But 20 wins this year would be a really nice step in the right direction. Back to Top The Optimist General User Member Since: 3/16/2007 Location: CLE Post Count: 5,552 Status: Offline     RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?    Posted: 12/24/2015 2:56:32 PM  Alan Swank wrote: The Optimist wrote: Uncle Wes wrote: 20 wins counting a couple of post season victories is doable. Figure a 9-3 regular season, 1 win in the MAC tournament and 1 win in the CIT/CBI. Ohio needs to go 9-9 in MAC play to hit 20 wins. Win an extra game in the post season and the requirement for MAC play is 8-10. Bingo. The easy OOC games and potential games after the regular season add up quick. Like a bowl game, 20 win seasons aren't what they used to be. Like an invitation to a bowl game, if 20 wins is the standard for success in basketball, things have really gotten watered down. When Danny and his crew won 20 four years in a row, they only played 32, 28, 30 and 30 games and won 23, 20, 22 and 22. When you are guaranteed to play 31 games, 20 isn't that big a deal any longer although I'll certainly take it over last year's 10 win season. And as a side note, 122 D 1 schools had 20 wins last year including 8 in the MAC. The glory days! Back before it was 65 and sunny on Christmas Eve in Athens and before the escalators in Baker Center took all the fun out of the Richland Avenue Bridge. TAKE ME BACK! I've seen crazier things happen. Back to Top Showing Replies:   51 - 75  of 176 Posts Jump to Page:   < Previous    1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8    Next > View Other 'Ohio Basketball' Topics                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               WHO'S ONLINE There are 249 Active Visitors on BobcatAttack.com 248 Guests 1 Registered User:   ohio9704 There are no other users looking at this page.

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