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Topic:  Pre-post mortem

Topic:  Pre-post mortem
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Mike Johnson
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  Message Not Read  Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/15/2012 8:53:40 AM 
Okay, there's one more game to play.  Maybe two if Ohio gets a bowl bid.  But as Ohio's defense is looking funereal, I find myself thinking ahead to next season.  My wish list for 2013 begins with fewer injured Bobcats.  Beyond that topping my wish list is:

* more speed at middle linebacker.
* more overall speed on defense, especially at middle linebacker

http://www.facebook.com/mikejohnson.author

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OU_Country
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/15/2012 9:09:10 AM 
Mike Johnson wrote:
Okay, there's one more game to play.  Maybe two if Ohio gets a bowl bid.  But as Ohio's defense is looking funereal, I find myself thinking ahead to next season.  My wish list for 2013 begins with fewer injured Bobcats.  Beyond that topping my wish list is:

* more speed at middle linebacker.
* more overall speed on defense, especially at middle linebacker


Agree:  Linebacker is a BIG weak spot from perspective as the fan watching from TV or in the seats.  Injuries explain other problems on defense, but not as much at LB.
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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/15/2012 9:29:19 AM 
More smarts on defense, too.  Too many guys -- even experienced guys -- overrunning plays, blowing coverage and not staying home.  It's not a matter of skill; it's a between-the-ears thing.

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.
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OU_Country
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/15/2012 9:31:39 AM 
Pataskala wrote:
More smarts on defense, too.  Too many guys -- even experienced guys -- overrunning plays, blowing coverage and not staying home.  It's not a matter of skill; it's a between-the-ears thing.


It's safe to say that Noah Keller spoiled us at LB in that regard.
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bobcatsquared
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/15/2012 9:32:17 AM 
    I want to go back to a time (games this fall v. PSU and Marshall) when I felt confident watching Ohio despite the Bobcats losing at the time because #4 was running the offense.
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Casper71
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/15/2012 9:36:18 AM 
I would say quite simply we need to be bigger, faster, stronger and smarter everywhere on the field.  We need to  improve blocking and tackling.  I thought we had all this great depth in year 8 but I haven't seen it given the injuries we've had and the opportunities players had.  As usual, we get 3-4 very good players a year.  When that number is 8-9 I'll believe we've turned the corner.  Until then it's just a stable staff and "system" that is in place that puts us in the middle to upper middle range of MAC teams.
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Kinggeorge4
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/15/2012 10:18:54 AM 
We need a player who can see the QB has the ball and not the RB (fake) as he runs by them for a TD.

GO BOBCATS
GEORGE

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/15/2012 12:09:11 PM 
To what extent is the linebacker play we see influenced by the defensive line play? In years past, the philosophy was for the defensive line to tie things up, to keep the blockers off the linebackers, and to permit the linebackers to make plays. This year they changed philosophy and the defensive line is supposed to attack and penetrate. That may have resulted in a few more sacks and tackles for loss, but not as many as you'd hope. Meanwhile it permits the blockers to get to the linebackers, and seal them off. It also reduces contain on QBs and they have been able at times to get big runs. I'm not sold on the new approach, to be honest.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Bcat2
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/15/2012 12:30:31 PM 
L.C. wrote:
To what extent is the linebacker play we see influenced by the defensive line play? In years past, the philosophy was for the defensive line to tie things up, to keep the blockers off the linebackers, and to permit the linebackers to make plays. This year they changed philosophy and the defensive line is supposed to attack and penetrate. That may have resulted in a few more sacks and tackles for loss, but not as many as you'd hope. Meanwhile it permits the blockers to get to the linebackers, and seal them off. It also reduces contain on QBs and they have been able at times to get big runs. I'm not sold on the new approach, to be honest.


These things come down to the right personnel. With Scott an Hastings at end, Jones and Neal H. at tackle they are disruptive enough, quickly enough and when healthy had two that could not be handled one on one. Lose Scott, Neal and Carl get dinged up and Hastings has to move inside, well, against a BSU OL the commentater said had over 100 starts total, things get out of hand.  Congrats to Ball State.  Teams don't usually have a sr. former starter at backup QB.  Did BSU show everyone here that two backs are better?

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

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Casper71
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/15/2012 2:46:14 PM 
Three of the four DL have started most every game this year.  their woes have been consistent.  Dunno if if it is scheme or what but I don't think any of them has 20 tackles total thru the 11 games.  Same for the OL most have started every game this year.  I know we have injuries but something has happened since 7-0 and the bye week.  Like we got to the real competition and found out this year we don't have the players the top tier teams have.  Skill positions is another issue.  Lots of DB and WR injuries that have hurt our big play capabilities.  Still most of the guys playing now have been there all year.  Just look at the starters each game in the Game Notes.  You'll actually see we have a lot of the same guys starting.

I think one word we haven't used yet is discipline.  We used to cover all the gaps, make all the right reads, not blow coverages, stay home and defend or go after the ball or blitz.  What game have we done all that well lately?
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Bcat2
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/15/2012 3:48:14 PM 
Casper71 wrote:
Three of the four DL have started most every game this year.  their woes have been consistent.  Dunno if if it is scheme or what but I don't think any of them has 20 tackles total thru the 11 games.  Same for the OL most have started every game this year.  I know we have injuries but something has happened since 7-0 and the bye week.  Like we got to the real competition and found out this year we don't have the players the top tier teams have.  Skill positions is another issue.  Lots of DB and WR injuries that have hurt our big play capabilities.  Still most of the guys playing now have been there all year.  Just look at the starters each game in the Game Notes.  You'll actually see we have a lot of the same guys starting.

I think one word we haven't used yet is discipline.  We used to cover all the gaps, make all the right reads, not blow coverages, stay home and defend or go after the ball or blitz.  What game have we done all that well lately?


Looking at the stats. Offense, a lot to like.  483 yards (usually plenty), Beau 161 rushing 3 TDs (career day), TT 22-30, 236 yards (good balance foe 231 rushing).  Someone was doing something right. Still TT has to miss Thompson, Roback, Dovell and Carlotta.  Good numbers.  Negative. 4 sacks, 4 sacks, 4 sacks. 

Defense.  I think Ohio actually had the game in hand until Neal and Carl went down.  Ohio was not able to cover for them like Page covered for Wenning.  Defense starts at DT.  No doubt in my mind the defensive coaches look a lot smarter with Scott, Carrie, Shaw and Hughes, Neal and Carl. Carrie and Shaw don't give 10 yards to any WR. Game changes rightt there

Missing key leaders on the field, Thompson and Carrie, Carlotta. 

Last Edited: 11/15/2012 3:49:49 PM by Bcat2

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

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colobobcat66
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/15/2012 5:08:19 PM 
Casper71 wrote:
Three of the four DL have started most every game this year.  their woes have been consistent.  Dunno if if it is scheme or what but I don't think any of them has 20 tackles total thru the 11 games.  Same for the OL most have started every game this year.  I know we have injuries but something has happened since 7-0 and the bye week.  Like we got to the real competition and found out this year we don't have the players the top tier teams have.  Skill positions is another issue.  Lots of DB and WR injuries that have hurt our big play capabilities.  Still most of the guys playing now have been there all year.  Just look at the starters each game in the Game Notes.  You'll actually see we have a lot of the same guys starting.

I think one word we haven't used yet is discipline.  We used to cover all the gaps, make all the right reads, not blow coverages, stay home and defend or go after the ball or blitz.  What game have we done all that well lately?

The Ball State game notes show Jones with 47 tackles, Hasting with 46, Cutcher with 35 and Huyuh with 25 so the guys are making some tackles.  Not sure how this compares to prior years without looking back.  Moore had 80 tackles - not up to Keller stats but I'm not sure he's played as much as Keller did and I wouldn't expect him to do as well anyway.
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Bcat2
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/15/2012 5:52:07 PM 
colobobcat66 wrote:
Casper71 wrote:
Three of the four DL have started most every game this year.  their woes have been consistent.  Dunno if if it is scheme or what but I don't think any of them has 20 tackles total thru the 11 games.  Same for the OL most have started every game this year.  I know we have injuries but something has happened since 7-0 and the bye week.  Like we got to the real competition and found out this year we don't have the players the top tier teams have.  Skill positions is another issue.  Lots of DB and WR injuries that have hurt our big play capabilities.  Still most of the guys playing now have been there all year.  Just look at the starters each game in the Game Notes.  You'll actually see we have a lot of the same guys starting.

I think one word we haven't used yet is discipline.  We used to cover all the gaps, make all the right reads, not blow coverages, stay home and defend or go after the ball or blitz.  What game have we done all that well lately?

The Ball State game notes show Jones with 47 tackles, Hasting with 46, Cutcher with 35 and Huyuh with 25 so the guys are making some tackles.  Not sure how this compares to prior years without looking back.  Moore had 80 tackles - not up to Keller stats but I'm not sure he's played as much as Keller did and I wouldn't expect him to do as well anyway.


colobobcat66.  Thanks for bringing the facts. 

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

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MonroeClassmate
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/15/2012 6:17:45 PM 
What happened to the OLine?  Few injuries and then welcome to Sackville.  How many sacks do the Flashes think they'll get on Black Friday?
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/15/2012 6:26:11 PM 
Bcat2 wrote:
.....Looking at the stats. Offense, a lot to like.  483 yards (usually plenty), Beau 161 rushing 3 TDs (career day), TT 22-30, 236 yards (good balance foe 231 rushing).  Someone was doing something right. Still TT has to miss Thompson, Roback, Dovell and Carlotta.  Good numbers.  Negative. 4 sacks, 4 sacks, 4 sacks.  ...

You used to be able to tell what/where the problem was in the Offensive line stats, which were found in the Game Notes every week. They have abridged the line stats recently, however, so you don't get a complete picture. The stats the last few weeks have only given the good numbers (pancakes, decleaters), and they omit the bad numbers (sacks given up, QB pressures given up, penalties). I know that there have been a lot of sacks, pressures, and penalties, but I don't know how many, nor which blocker game them up. With incomplete numbers I can't tell much about what the problem is. Is it one blocker? Two? Is it TT taking too long? Is it receivers not getting open fast enough? 

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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colobobcat66
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/15/2012 6:43:57 PM 
Maybe I'm missing someone, but we really have not had a defensive end with many sacks since Jameson Hartke(?) and that seems so long ago. Then his senior year, I think, they had to move him inside to tackle and his sacks went down.  It would be nice to have a monster rush end (or 2). 

Looking at the game notes, until this game, we have not really had that many long term defensive injuries since the first game of the season-except for Scott and that was pretty big. There have been guys out for a game or 2,, but none for extended periods per the game notes. 

We have had injuries on the offensive side and we continue to lose a couple guys every week now it seems. I'm guessing the pre-season concerns about the WR's is coming home to roost.  TT has had injuries since early in the season and with his loss of targets, I'm not surprised he is getting a little perturbed/upset.

Last Edited: 11/15/2012 6:47:00 PM by colobobcat66
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Bcat2
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/15/2012 7:02:30 PM 
colobobcat66 wrote:
Maybe I'm missing someone, but we really have not had a defensive end with many sacks since Jameson Hartke(?) and that seems so long ago. Then his senior year, I think, they had to move him inside to tackle and his sacks went down.  It would be nice to have a monster rush end (or 2). 

Looking at the game notes, until this game, we have not really had that many long term defensive injuries since the first game of the season-except for Scott and that was pretty big. There have been guys out for a game or 2,, but none for extended periods per the game notes. 

We have had injuries on the offensive side and we continue to lose a couple guys every week now it seems. I'm guessing the pre-season concerns about the WR's is coming home to roost.  TT has had injuries since early in the season and with his loss of targets, I'm not surprised he is getting a little perturbed/upset.


Per MAC stats Ohio has 20 sacks the same as Toledo and Kent and two more than Ball State. This without a preseason All MAC DE Scott. Not so bad. In good company, though, I expext better in the future.

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/15/2012 7:19:42 PM 
colobobcat66 wrote:
...Looking at the game notes, until this game, we have not really had that many long term defensive injuries since the first game of the season-except for Scott and that was pretty big. There have been guys out for a game or 2,, but none for extended periods per the game notes.  ...

Until now the defensive absences have primarily been the defensive backfield:
Starters:
Carrie was out preseason.
Omar Leftwich was lost over the summer to other issues.
Shaw was lost in the first game.
Hughes was suspended early, played a game or two, then hurt his shoulder.
Gerald Moore was hurt against U. Mass, missed Buffalo and Akron, and played sparingly against Miami. He still doesn't seem to be as fast as he was.

Backups:
Kristoff didn't miss any games, but I think he was questionable a game or two.
Ingol - I think he missed Miami and EMU
Wells and Fisher have been dinged up, but still played.

Others:
So far as I know, Devin Bass, Nathan Carpenter, Octavious Leftwich, and Mose Denton have not been hurt. We've also seen walkons Andy Fay, Devin Jones, James Ray, and Blake Scipio getting playing time.

EDIT -
Regarding the injury plague, I wouldn't want to claim my spreadsheet is complete, or correct, but I show the following people lost by year:
2012 (17) - Boykin, Pritchard, Sam Johnson, John Tanner, Jordan Thompson, Landon Smith, Dovell, Sebastian Smith, Tremayne Scott, Xavier Hughes, Jamil Shaw, Carrie, Yazdani, Carl Jones, Huynh, plus Mike Lucas and Omar Leftwich to other issues.
2011 (1) - Huynh
2010 (6) - Laudermilch, Flowers, plus Harden and Oxley for other issues, EDIT - plus Keller and Brazill
2009 (12) - Hilton Dawson, Steven Jackson, Gonzales-Santos, Luchsinger, Meyers, Edwards, Weaver, Boo Jackson, Laudermilch, Riley Dunlop, Matt Britain, plus Oxley for other issues.
2008 (13) - Jordon Meyers, Morsillo, Kenkel, Mooney, Schussler, Gatling, Posey, Theo Scott, Sweeney, Laudermilch, Harden, Michael Brown, Michael Mitchell
2007 (6) - Ferrainolo, Donahue, Paul Johnson, Ejike, Harden, plus Hodge for other issues.
2006 (6) -  Jordan Meyers, Bryson Bush, Joel Scipio, plus Ward, Hinton, and Stuck for other issues.

If I am close to right, even though injuries were high in 2008 and 2009, this year is by far the worst. Also, it kind of explains why certain years ended up disappointing.

Last Edited: 11/16/2012 12:16:39 PM by L.C.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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mf279801
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/15/2012 7:56:19 PM 
Noah Keller, Lavon Brazil...
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/15/2012 8:14:17 PM 
Thanks. I added Keller and Brazill to 2010.

As I said, I made no claim of completeness. The spreadsheet wasn't created to track this, it was just some incidental footnotes I added along the way.

Last Edited: 11/15/2012 8:18:00 PM by L.C.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Casper71
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/16/2012 9:54:19 AM 
colorado-thanks for fact checking me.  I thought I had seen earlier these guys were all in the 20s.  I know we use a lot of guys so it is hard for them to get big numbers.  That approach worked early but the longer we've gone, the more worn down the front 7 appears.  We are just not a good defensive team recently.  Probably because of -0- turnovers and mental errors.  We still do not look as physical as Miami, BG or Ballsie.

i think Kent turns into a real debacle.
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colobobcat66
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/16/2012 11:31:50 AM 
Bcat2 wrote:
colobobcat66 wrote:
Maybe I'm missing someone, but we really have not had a defensive end with many sacks since Jameson Hartke(?) and that seems so long ago. Then his senior year, I think, they had to move him inside to tackle and his sacks went down.  It would be nice to have a monster rush end (or 2). 

Looking at the game notes, until this game, we have not really had that many long term defensive injuries since the first game of the season-except for Scott and that was pretty big. There have been guys out for a game or 2,, but none for extended periods per the game notes. 

We have had injuries on the offensive side and we continue to lose a couple guys every week now it seems. I'm guessing the pre-season concerns about the WR's is coming home to roost.  TT has had injuries since early in the season and with his loss of targets, I'm not surprised he is getting a little perturbed/upset.


Per MAC stats Ohio has 20 sacks the same as Toledo and Kent and two more than Ball State. This without a preseason All MAC DE Scott. Not so bad. In good company, though, I expext better in the future.


you've kind of supported my logic.  Our sacks are not coming from rush ends, and Ball  State, Toledo and Kent State are 93rd,65th and 53 in points allowed. Ohio is 56th.  They don't have great defenses based on points given up, they just score a lot of points to win.  Now, BG has a real defense-9th in points allowed. And 30 sacks.

Last Edited: 11/16/2012 11:53:32 AM by colobobcat66
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Bcat2
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/16/2012 2:35:20 PM 
colobobcat66 wrote:
Bcat2 wrote:
colobobcat66 wrote:
Maybe I'm missing someone, but we really have not had a defensive end with many sacks since Jameson Hartke(?) and that seems so long ago. Then his senior year, I think, they had to move him inside to tackle and his sacks went down.  It would be nice to have a monster rush end (or 2). 

Looking at the game notes, until this game, we have not really had that many long term defensive injuries since the first game of the season-except for Scott and that was pretty big. There have been guys out for a game or 2,, but none for extended periods per the game notes. 

We have had injuries on the offensive side and we continue to lose a couple guys every week now it seems. I'm guessing the pre-season concerns about the WR's is coming home to roost.  TT has had injuries since early in the season and with his loss of targets, I'm not surprised he is getting a little perturbed/upset.


Per MAC stats Ohio has 20 sacks the same as Toledo and Kent and two more than Ball State. This without a preseason All MAC DE Scott. Not so bad. In good company, though, I expext better in the future.


you've kind of supported my logic.  Our sacks are not coming from rush ends, and Ball  State, Toledo and Kent State are 93rd,65th and 53 in points allowed. Ohio is 56th.  They don't have great defenses based on points given up, they just score a lot of points to win.  Now, BG has a real defense-9th in points allowed. And 30 sacks.


I do agree that Ohio really needs pressure from the DEs. Scott was set to fill the bill.  He had done the work for years and his loss was like the offense losing JT.  The roster has many young DL/DE listed.  By next fall there should be someone developed who will step in.  This is me having faith.

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/16/2012 2:38:20 PM 
I had an idea today. I have a database from recruiting where I use the recruits to make long-term forecasts for how good future teams will be. That was the data I used years ago to project that 2011 would be a great year. The output is in terms of an expected Sagarin Predictor number. It originally forecast a 71 for Ohio this year. After the first few games, that's just about where Ohio was.

Normally I only update that database once a year, but out of curiousity I went into it today because I wondered what would happen if I accounted for the injuries. If I remove all the injured players, it reduces the forecast for this year to 62. The current Sagarin number for Ohio is 62.22. Note, however, that Ohio has not been playing like a 62 the last few games. They have been playing more like a 52, which, when averaged with their start, gives 62. That tells me that the main reason for the decline is the injuries, but that, even accounting for the injuries, Ohio isn't playing to their potential.

For what it's worth, the longer term projections for Ohio are for 71 next year, a dip to 69 in 2014, then starting to climb again, with a 72 in 2015. Anything over 70 traditionally is one of the top teams in the MAC, and has a shot at a MAC championship. Thus, my projection is that Ohio will remain one of the top MAC teams in years ahead, and will have a shot at a championship in each year, but they may not be the favorite again for awhile.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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D.A.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-post mortem
   Posted: 11/16/2012 5:32:42 PM 
The last few weeks I've had this recurring vision of Bill O'Brien sitting in a dark room watching our games and saying over and over in a hushed voice: "If I just hadn't been caught on film saying OHIO didn't look like they were interested in tackling...", because now, we don't.

In the pregame video for Kant, someone needs to put that on continuous loop.

The Few, The Proud, The Bobcats!

And for the record, I hate tOSU, and Ricordati and Torgerson are DB's.

"This isn't just another walkover from the MAC." Kirk Herbstreit, another DB, on College Football Gameday
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