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Topic: Has offense been improving?

Topic: Has offense been improving?

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Mike Johnson
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Member Since: 11/11/2004
Location: North Canton, OH
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Has offense been improving?

Posted: 11/29/2012 11:45:01 PM

Those among us who have been following Ohio football can agree, I think, that Tyler Tettleton has given the Bobcats the most effective two consecutive seasons of quarterbacking since Cleve Bryant's last two seasons. During recent seasons the Bobcats also have been blessed with some stellar skill players - Harden, Brazil, Terrence McCrae, Dunlop, Blankenship...

So why do I have this niggling feeling that Ohio's offense hasn't progressed as I expected it to?

I decided to check some numbers and found them revealing but not encouraging.

Back in 2007 the Cats struggled to a 6-6 record and averaged 30.5 ppg.

In 2008 the record was 4-8 and ppg dropped to 24.8.

In 2009 we enjoyed watching the Cats roll to a 9-5 record but ppg dipped to 24.1.

Now, let's pause and add some perspective. During the last 3 seasons, Northern Illinois has gone 33-7, Toledo 26-12 and Ohio 26-13.

PPG?

2010: NIU goes 11-3 and averages 38.0. Toledo goes 8-5 and averages 27.9. Ohio goes 8-5 and averages 30.4.

2011: NIU goes 11-3 and averages 38.3. Toledo goes 9-4 and averages 42.2. Ohio goes 10-4 and averages 30.5.

2012: NIU is 11-1 and averaging 40.5. Toledo is 9-3 and averaging 32.9. Ohio is 8-4 and averaging 30.6.

Ohio with consecutive records of 8-5, 10-4 and 8-4 is averaging almost precisely what it averaged with a 6-6 record in 2007.

It seems as though something is shackling Ohio's offense. There hasn't been a season when the offense has exploded, averaging 35 or more points a game.

More checking reminds us that Ohio's highest scoring season since emerging from its Dark Ages (Cleve/Lichty) was Jim Grobe's last season - 2000 - when the triple option produced 31.2 ppg.

We likely could cite any number of reasons to explain the absence of a breakout season for Ohio's offense. But I can't help wondering if there is one reason that is more influential than all the others. Absent identifying such a reason and taking corrective action, I guess I find myself losing hope that we will see such a breakout season.

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C Money
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Member Since: 8/28/2010
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RE: Has offense been improving?

Posted: 11/30/2012 7:43:44 AM

Coaching philosophy. If we're up, we take our foot off the gas and run clock instead of scoring points. See the Akron game this year for the perfect example. We're up 20 at the beginning of the 4th and only win by a touchdown, because our offense went super conservative (for instance, a QB sneak out of the pistol on 3rd and 2).

Mark Lembright '85
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Location: Highland Heights, OH
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RE: Has offense been improving?

Posted: 11/30/2012 9:13:57 AM

C Money wrote:

You're probably right and it shows that sometimes Coach Solich is inconsistent in his offensive coaching philosophy. He's an enigma wrapped around a mystery. After the 2010 season and after getting drilled by Troy in the New Orleans Bowl, Solich travels to Troy, meets with their coach and coaching staff to learn more about their offense, adapts a good part of it prior to the 2011 season for Ohio and Ohio had a decent offensive season.

So it's clear Solich is open to different philosophies. But then for whatever reason he sometimes fails to go for the jugular when his team is leading and the team goes into a nutshell. We're up 20-0 in last year's MACC and lose? The worst half I've ever seen offensively from Ohio-way too conservative and it cost us.

Last Edited: 11/30/2012 4:57:16 PM by Mark Lembright '85

Bobcatbob
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Location: Coolville, OH
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RE: Has offense been improving?

Posted: 11/30/2012 9:14:25 AM

Gotta believe that if our D was healthy all season we'd have 2 - 3 fewer losses in 2012 and those PPG comparisons would look a lot different. If you only give up 10 per game, like ND, you can go a long way on offense with 20.

71 BOBCAT
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RE: Has offense been improving?

Posted: 11/30/2012 9:29:02 AM

I believe there are several factors as to why we haven't had that breakout season:
1) When we are up big going into the 4th quarter the coaches switch out starters for backups, to give them experience.
2) This year's injuries curtailed what was expected to be a great season with more scoring.
3) Frank clearly understands that consistant performance over extended years is more important than being a flash in the pan 1 year, AKA Akron.

So far Frank's strategy has proven out to be best. He understands all the ramifications of running a mid-major program. 1) At best you can recruit 3 star players 2) Must institute a 5 year player development program 3) Must plan your OOC schedule for 1 major money game with 3 winable games. 4) Instill confidence, toughness, belief that each player will do his job, 5) Establish a winning attitude, & 5) Get all players to buy into the program.

The program is the blue print that every MAC team has acknowledged as the right approach.

GO BOBCATS

MedinaCat
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RE: Has offense been improving?

Posted: 11/30/2012 10:14:30 AM

71 BOBCAT wrote:

So far Frank's strategy has proven out to be best.

A few things here....

I'd like to agree with the statement above, but we have ZERO MAC championships since 1968.

PPG is a single data point that reflects the effectiveness of the offense, defense and special teams, not just the offense. How do points generated from special teams compare to previous years. How about the take-away ratio?

By no means am I in the "heads should roll" camp. This has been a year of great highs and anquishing lows. But this still beats losing 31 - 0 to Northeastern.

bostonbobcat
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RE: Has offense been improving?

Posted: 11/30/2012 11:37:28 AM

Bobcatbob wrote:

The unhealthy defense has only gagged all over itself in two games, Ball State and UMass.

Miami. The team was in position to at least extend the game into OT.
BG, Special teams stuck the defense in a no-win situation. Would have been nice to limit those mistakes to FGs but I have a hard time seeing them go in on short fields and screaming unhealthy defense.
Ball State. Wasn't good at all.
Kent State. Offense and defense allowed the same number of points.

mf279801
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RE: Has offense been improving?

Posted: 11/30/2012 11:46:42 AM

bostonbobcat wrote:

The unhealthy defense has only gagged all over itself in two games, Ball State and UMass.

Marshall? Buffalo? Arkon?

bostonbobcat
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RE: Has offense been improving?

Posted: 11/30/2012 11:59:52 AM

Buffalo the defense didn't play well in the first quarter. It was a 14 point game until 10 seconds left. I didn't lose much sleep over it.

Akron a bad fourth quarter.

I thought Marshall was a good offensive football team, and they still held them to 24 points.

No they didn't play great, or for 60 minutes, but it wasn't a sign that they'd lose 4 of 5 to close the year.

mf279801
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RE: Has offense been improving?

Posted: 11/30/2012 1:05:06 PM

bostonbobcat wrote:

Right, because the offense got us out of those games. Then things switched in the last third or so of the season

bostonbobcat
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RE: Has offense been improving?

Posted: 11/30/2012 1:17:06 PM

The healthy defense wasn't going to allow 10/game.

mf279801
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RE: Has offense been improving?

Posted: 11/30/2012 4:54:09 PM

bostonbobcat wrote:

The healthy defense wasn't going to allow 10/game.

No, they weren't. My point was that the BAD defensive performance of the first two-thirds breakdown follows) of the year didn't bite us in the ass because the offense overcame the defensive deficiencies. The defense DID play good in 3 of 4 games to close out the season, but the offense (of special teams) cost us two of those games, and we beat EMU. The thread topic was "has the offense been improving", and it is my contention that it was the offense, not the defense, that got us past UMASS, Buffalo, and maybe Akron. BostonBobcat is correct in saying that we performed well against Marshall (my memory was skewed by how quickly they scored their first 14 poitns).

2012 defensive performance (FCS opponents excluded in "relative result", but included in quantitative)

                                       (How their offense
                                     performed against us)          (Their score relative to mean Points/game (PPG))
Opponent                          Relative Result                           Appearance of quantitative certainity                     Qualitive
Penn State                    Lowest score of season                             Held under PPG by 15.1pts                        GOOD
NMSU                      2nd HIGHEST score of season                         Exceeded PPG by 6.2pts                              Bad
Marshall                  2nd Lowest score of season                            Held under PPG by 16.9pts                        GOOD
UMASS                        Highest score of season                               Exceeded PPG by 21.3pts                            BAD
Buffalo                         Highest score of season                               Exceeded PPG by 9.7pts                              BAD
Akron                         3rd highest score of season                           Exceeded PPG by 2.9pts                    Sure isn't good
Fiami                             Median score of season                            Held under PPG by 0.3pts                  Good enough
EMU                             T-4th lowest score of season                       Held under PPG by 7.3pts                          Good
BG                                T-2nd highest score of season                   (only) Exceeded PPG by 2.8pts         Pretty good
                                           (but punting)                                                (with the punting woes)             considering punting
Ball State                   Highest score of season                                Exceeded PPG by 17                            BAD BAD BAD
Kent State               2nd LOWEST score of season                        Held under PPG by 6.4pts                 REALLY GOOD
                                 (even with their D scoring 2 of those)              (under PPG by 20.4 without 2 defensive TDs

(And I really do hope that looks good. I'm afraid that my "table" will just be a mess when I hit submit)
So whats it all mean? The defense (AND the offense) played well against Penn State and Marshall. Likewise, both sids of the ball crapped the bed statistically speaking against Ball State. The offense played so well against NMSU that it didn't really matter what the D did. But look at those numbers from UMASS and Buffalo! With the offense of 2005-2010, we lose those games.

I feel like I've wandered away from whatever my original point was, so I'll conclude. Before the Miami game, the D didn't impress me, though it must be stressed that they played very well against Penn State and Marshall. After the Miami game the defense played pretty good, excepting Ball State whichdidn't really get out of hand until after Neal Huyun and Carl Jones were lost.

Doc Bobcat
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RE: Has offense been improving?

Posted: 11/30/2012 4:57:20 PM

Thanks for the heads up mf.......but all those stats references caused Ph.D. stat class memories that put a little taste of puke in my mouth.

mf279801
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Location: Newark, DE
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RE: Has offense been improving?

Posted: 11/30/2012 4:59:20 PM

Doc Bobcat wrote:

Thanks for the heads up mf.......but all those stats references caused Ph.D. stat class memories that put a little taste of puke in my mouth.

Please please, call me matt. My initials could be mis-interpreted (in a way that rhymes with "Ducker") when taken without the context of my OakID

Last Edited: 11/30/2012 4:59:33 PM by mf279801

Doc Bobcat
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RE: Has offense been improving?

Posted: 11/30/2012 5:59:30 PM

mf279801 wrote:

Doc Bobcat wrote:

Thanks for the heads up mf.......but all those stats references caused Ph.D. stat class memories that put a little taste of puke in my mouth.

Please please, call me matt. My initials could be mis-interpreted (in a way that rhymes with "Ducker") when taken without the context of my OakID

At least I didn't call you mf-er....haha.... I'll buy ya a beer at the Cat's Eye or someplace for all that thought and effort.

mf279801
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Location: Newark, DE
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RE: Has offense been improving?

Posted: 12/1/2012 10:09:18 AM

Doc Bobcat wrote:

mf279801 wrote:

Doc Bobcat wrote:

Thanks for the heads up mf.......but all those stats references caused Ph.D. stat class memories that put a little taste of puke in my mouth.

Please please, call me matt. My initials could be mis-interpreted (in a way that rhymes with "Ducker") when taken without the context of my OakID

At least I didn't call you mf-er....haha.... I'll buy ya a beer at the Cat's Eye or someplace for all that thought and effort.

HA! Thats true!
That makes this easily the most productive thing I did yesterday

Cats-22
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RE: Has offense been improving?

Posted: 12/1/2012 11:21:34 AM

That was a great post, matt, and I think really captures the ups and downs of the D. I was very pleasantly surprised with how well the D played vs. Kent.

Offensively, something seemed to happen through the course of the season to limit the effectiveness. Losing Jordan Thompson really hurt, Tettleton being dinged hurt, OL injuries hurt, loss of key WR playmakers hurt. But beyond that I feel like something else was up (though, I don't know what). Even given the injuries the team should have been more productive. I'm sure the coaches and players aren't satisfied and are working to solve those issues. Hopefully they get another shot in a bowl game.

Last Edited: 12/2/2012 5:22:45 AM by Cats-22

Monroe Slavin
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RE: Has offense been improving?

Posted: 12/2/2012 3:19:18 AM

I don't know. Our defense has been almost sufficient at points. But not nearly good enough, to be frank.

Sorry. But this bend but not break and no-attacking, no-aggro defense we play is not spirit-infusing.

At some points we need the defense to win the game, to get us going when the offense is not. Sorry for repeating again, but THAT'S what we needed the D to do against BG in the last home game.

At some points we need a D that controls the game.

Aren't you guys tired of defenses controlling us when it matters? Wouldn't you like to see us do it to them?

Yeah, the offense does need to be better. Hurry up anyone?
It's also fair to say that this staff will dial it back late when we're up big. That is okay.

Where's the band?!
WHERE"S THE BAND?!

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