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Topic: The race for bowl slots FINAL CHART

Topic: The race for bowl slots FINAL CHART

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Pataskala
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The race for bowl slots FINAL CHART

Posted: 10/23/2012 9:35:07 PM

This is the final chart, assuming that Pitt beats USF (they're up 27-0 in the 3rd). We can assume CMU is history, so that leaves nine teams vying for eight available bowl slots.

Update: La-Monroe goes to the Independence Bowl. Now eight teams for seven slots.

Update: San Jose St is in the Military Bowl vs. a MAC team, leaving seven teams and six slots.

Conference	Eligible	Out	Needing a Bowl	Open Slots?
ACC (8)	6	6		Military, Independence
Big 12 (7)	9	1	Iowa St (6-6)
Big East (6)	5	3		Liberty, Compass
Big Ten (8)	7	5		Pizza
CUSA (6)	5	7
MAC (3)	7	6	BSU (9-3) BG (8-4) Ohio (8-4) CMU (6-6)
MWC (5)	5	5
Pac 12 (7)	8	4
SEC (10)	9	5		Independence, Compass
Sun Belt (2)	5	5	MTSU (8-4) La-Monroe (8-4) WKU (7-5)
WAC (1)	3	4	San Jose St (10-2) LaTech (9-3)
Indies (3)	2	1		Military
BCS at large (4)	1 (ND)	0
Total (70)	72	52

Last Edited: 12/2/2012 1:59:03 PM by Pataskala

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Tyler
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RE: The race for bowl slots

Posted: 10/23/2012 9:42:54 PM

I don't think UTSA or any of the other transitional teams can go to bowls during the transition period.

Pataskala
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RE: The race for bowl slots

Posted: 10/23/2012 9:55:40 PM

The guide I use for this sort of thing -- ESPN -- doesn't have them listed as ineligible, like they do O$U, Penn St and UNC, along with the 7-loss teams. Only UTSA (5-2) and Texas St (3-3) have a real chance to get bowl eligible. Under the NCAA's new contingency plan, they're next to last on the list, just ahead of 5-7 teams.

Last Edited: 10/23/2012 10:01:29 PM by Pataskala

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anorris
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RE: The race for bowl slots

Posted: 10/24/2012 2:19:58 PM

Pataskala wrote:

Not that we need to worry too much about it, but here's the latest status on the race for bowl slots, through games of 10/23...

Just enjoying that for a minute.

GoCats105
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RE: The race for bowl slots

Posted: 10/24/2012 4:31:12 PM

TheRealO-H-I-O wrote:

I don't think UTSA or any of the other transitional teams can go to bowls during the transition period.

This is correct. Although I still think they are eligible to win a conference title?

Brufus
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RE: The race for bowl slots

Posted: 10/28/2012 11:27:35 AM

I heard that UCF was ineligible for a bowl because of violations, but they were appealing that ruling. Did a decision ever come out? If they aren't eligible for a bowl, that means a critical bowl slot opening because they are their C-USA division leaders, and they are bowl-eligible based on record...

Pataskala
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RE: The race for bowl slots

Posted: 10/28/2012 1:37:56 PM

Brufus wrote:

It was announced last week that the hearing on their appeal won't be held until late January; since their appeal is still pending, they'll be bowl eligible this season. I think the NCAA was afraid they might have to let some 5-7 teams go to bowls, given that three AQ schools are also ineligible (O$U, Penn St and UNC).

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El Gato Roberto
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RE: The race for bowl slots

Posted: 10/28/2012 2:11:21 PM

I hate to be the voice of Cassandra over here, but, here's a little potential catastrophe for everyone's consideration: with all these eligible MAC-sters are we at risk of facing MAC on MAC crimes for bowl season?

Pataskala
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RE: The race for bowl slots

Posted: 10/28/2012 11:12:26 PM

El Gato Roberto wrote:

Not likely. There are already 40 teams eligible and another 34 likely to get eligible by mid-Nov, so that's at least 74 teams for 70 slots. The Sun Belt and the WAC will likely have at least 2-3 teams over their commitments, so I think there's enough to do inter-conference matchups.

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87OU Alum
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RE: The race for bowl slots

Posted: 11/4/2012 7:57:39 AM

66 teams are now at 5 wins or better for the year.........I'm not sure we are going to see 74 bowl eligible........I'm guessing 71 maybe 72.

Last Edited: 11/4/2012 9:55:34 AM by 87OU Alum

perimeterpost
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RE: The race for bowl slots

Posted: 11/4/2012 8:56:35 AM

For our 3 bowl tie ins there is a pecking order for the selection process, but how does that work for the extra bowl slots we may slide into? Is it possibe that our 3 best teams may not play in the 3 best bowls?

The latest CBSSports bowl projections has the MAC with 8 bowl teams but our best teams aren't necessarily matched up with our best opponents. For example, Fiami is matched with LaTech, I would want the MACC to play them as opposed to one of our 6-6 teams. Ohio is matched with La-La which I thought was bad until they beat up on ULM last night, but still, playing a team sponsored by Chili's isn't exactly a thrill.

I realize bowl projections this early are mostly meaningless but I do hope our best teams get the best match ups regardless. Was also disappointed that all 8 projections were against non-AQs. 5 SunBelt, 2 WAC, and 1 CUSA. Having a 5 on 5 bowl-o-rama with the SunBelt is not very appealing.

MY STATE. MY TEAM.

MariettaCatFanatic
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RE: The race for bowl slots

Posted: 11/4/2012 9:04:43 AM

perimeterpost wrote:

Unless some deal is worked out from the MAC, our three best teams will go to our three designated bowls. The Pizza Bowl get's to pick first and will likely select Toledo if they are are there. GoDaddy.com goes next which will probably take us if we make the MACC, and then finally the Potato Bowl picks third, which would probably be N. Illinois. I also see it possible that us and N. Illinois could flip bowls. The teams that are left are then picked over by our secondary bowl tie ins...many of which have better payouts and opponents than are primary tie ins. It sucks, but that's how it works. Hopefully, the next time bowl affiliations are redecided, we can get better bowl tie in's in better locales.

GO BOBCATS!

87OU Alum
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RE: The race for bowl slots

Posted: 11/4/2012 10:01:03 AM

If we get an invite to the Go-Daddy you owe it to yourself to make the trek to Mobile.

That was a great Bowl Experience up until Kick Off with Southern Miss(we kinda stubbed our toe).

Dauphne Street, the Mardi Gra's parade, and the overall hospitality was 2nd to none.

Having the room next to Kenny K. was a bit rough though........think it took me three days to sober up.

mf279801
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RE: The race for bowl slots

Posted: 11/4/2012 10:43:10 AM

Transitional teams are technically eligible, but only as a last resort, and as I read the link explaining their possible eligibility, it would be impossible for a transitional team to get a bowl spot while a 6-6 team sits at home.

Pataskala
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RE: The race for bowl slots

Posted: 11/4/2012 11:19:08 AM

The teams with the best shot at getting in are Mizzou and WMU (they're at Buffalo next week and have EMU at home on the 17th). Utah and Tennessee also have real shots. I'd also expect at least one more each from the Big Least and CUSA. I don't expect Fiami to get in. They have Kent, CMU and BSU left; winning two of those three isn't easy, but not impossible.

The transitional teams are next to last on the pecking order, so they come after any 6-6 teams even if their record is better. Any 5-7 teams would be last.

Last Edited: 11/4/2012 1:25:46 PM by Pataskala

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Victory
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RE: The race for bowl slots

Posted: 11/4/2012 1:45:18 PM

I know that many of you were glad to get control of our own destiny back but on another note it would have been nice to see them get to 6 wins which after WMU probably adds EMU & Buffalo to their win total would have given the MAC 8. Miami was going to eventually lose anyway. I wan't that worried about that.

As it is we have decent chance of getting 7 MAC teams into bowls.

Last Edited: 11/4/2012 1:46:41 PM by Victory

Victory
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RE: The race for bowl slots

Posted: 11/4/2012 2:34:24 PM

OK, time to be a nerd again, I took the simple predictive system that we described when we were discussing Sagarin a few weeks ago to come up with a point spread for all remaining games. When we were discussing the ELO ratings I mentioned how to look at a teams chance of winning when they are favored or an underdog by X points. Now I can take the predicted point spread to find the predicted odds of winning a game and add up the odds into a predicted number of wins. I had to eliminate OSU, PSU, & UNC. Pittsburgh and UTSA had 6 wins but short of the 7 and 8 that they need. I got 64 eligible teams before invoking the rules of what to fill extra spots. This is 6 short the total number of bowl spots.

Honestly, any school with 6 wins with no more than 1 over 1AA that isn't a transitional or on probation has a very good shot of getting to a bowl. It isn't guaranteed that all will go but it looks probable to me. Now, I am actually more disappointed that Miami lost than happy about it. (Am I allowed to even say that on this board? Are my Bobcat credentials on probation and pending further review?) I think I can say that because the odds of both Ohio and Miami winning out heading into the week we so small to make the Miami loss to Buffalo matter to Ohio winning the division were so small (I think over 500 to 1) that it wasn't really even worth worrying about. Our future as far as the eye can see is probably tied to the MAC and MAC success is helpful to Ohio. Eight schools in bowls would have been nice.

Last Edited: 11/4/2012 2:55:13 PM by Victory

Victory
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RE: The race for bowl slots

Posted: 11/4/2012 3:27:21 PM

I got to looking at this and I think that Pittsburgh only needs six wins so I get 65 total fully eligible now. Yes, they played two 1AA schools but they lost to one so they would only be counting one 1AA win which I think is the way that the rule reads.

Victory
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RE: The race for bowl slots

Posted: 11/4/2012 4:05:02 PM

I looked on teamrankings.com and looked at the number of teams that he gave a 50% or better chance of being eliglibe. He got 71. I win totals were very similar. I was just that the schools that I had at 6.0 or 6,1 wins he did as well and 6 of the teams that I had at 5-7 to 5.9 he had at 6.o or 6.1 as well

Under his 71 scenario the school with 6 wins that is staying home would almost certainly be Western Michigan. The MAC would still be at 6 schools going to bowls.

mf279801
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RE: The race for bowl slots

Posted: 11/4/2012 8:55:14 PM

Victory wrote:

You're correct. A team needs to win at least 50% of their games (6 games on a 12 game schedule, 7 games on a 13 game schedule) and can only count 1 VICTORY against a 1AA/FCS team. For instance, 6-win Cincinnati (who has won 2 games against FCS teams) is not currently eligible and will need to get to 7 total wins. Pittsburgh on the other hand (who has played 2 FCS teams but only beat 1) need only get to 6 total wins.

EDIT: But Pittsburgh only has 4 wins currently, and is not bowl eligible. I count 48 bowl eligible schools (including UCF, under the standard eligibility rules), with 44 still in the mix.

Last Edited: 11/4/2012 9:00:22 PM by mf279801

Pataskala
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RE: The race for bowl slots

Posted: 11/5/2012 7:34:26 PM

Right you are, so I'm moving Pitt over one column. The article and the NCAA press release on which it's based also say that UTSA would need only six wins; I'm not sure how they'd justify letting in a team with four wins vs. non-1A schools but keeping out a 5-7 team that might have five wins vs. 1-A schools.

Another fly in the ointment might be Fiami(FL) -- they're thinking about self-imposing a bowl ban for this season to ward off stricter penalties from the NCAA. Guess they've learned from O$U's mistake.

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Victory
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RE: The race for bowl slots

Posted: 11/11/2012 3:32:39 PM

I don't know that UTSA is eligible just yet, They have 3 FCS wins and it doesn't appear that you can ever count three even if we get down to placing transitionals.

I ran my simulation and got 69 eligible. Team Rankings has 71. I was looking at his 71 with over 50% chance and trying to see which would be the team left out It isn't an easy guess.

bobcat28
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RE: The race for bowl slots

Posted: 11/11/2012 4:54:37 PM

ESPN has UTSA bowl eligible. I dont really understand why.

9-3 we are a lock for a bowl. 8-4 we're borderline and we'll have to sweat it out and hope for some other losses. Right now I'd say only 5 MAC teams go bowling.

MariettaCatFanatic
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RE: The race for bowl slots

Posted: 11/11/2012 5:53:10 PM

bobcat28 wrote:

8-4 - We're a lock
9-3 - We're a lock
10-2 We're a lock

GO BOBCATS!

bobcat28
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RE: The race for bowl slots

Posted: 11/11/2012 7:06:38 PM

We will probably end up with around 76 bowl eligible teams. We would get picked ahead of UTSA, a 6-6 Central team should they end up bowl eligible, and the extra Sun Belt teams which will put us right on the bubble. The final spots may come down to the 8-4 MAC team or a 6-6 BCS team like Iowa State. Also If both us and BGSU finish 8-4, BGSU could get selected ahead of us since they won the head to head matchup a la Ohio/Temple a few years ago. A win against BSU settles everything.

I'm thinking Military Bowl. They took a MAC team last year in Toledo and had a competitive game.

Last Edited: 11/11/2012 7:09:04 PM by bobcat28

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