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Topic:  My computer projects...

Topic:  My computer projects...
Author
Message
L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,497

Status: Offline
  Message Not Read  My computer projects...
   Posted: 8/16/2013 7:09:46 PM 
the following number of conference wins for MAC teams:
East
Ohio -    6.8
BG -      6.5
Kent -    4.1
Buffalo - 3.2
Miami -   3.0
Akron -   2.4
U.Mass -   .6

West
NIU -     6.9
Ball St - 5.9
Toledo -  5.7
WMU -     3.3
CMU -     2.8
EMU -      .8

The computer projects double digit wins for Ohio in all conference games except BG, where it projects a very close game but a loss. It projects BG with wins in all games, but many of them are expected projected to be close games where they might lose one or two. Because of the way the tiebreaker works, then net projection is a 53% chance that BG is the MAC East champion, and a .47% chance it is Ohio, basically too close to call. Given that Ohio and BG should be far above the rest of the East, I would be very surprised if it doesn't take at least a 7-1 record to win the East.

These forecasts are in line with the National Consensus, which has Ohio-BG as a very close race, and Ball State-Toledo as a toss-up for 2d behind NIU. Really the only place i differ is that I have Kent ahead of Buffalo.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Bert Presley
General User



Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Where OHIO is winning and Miami is getting whipped, OH
Post Count: 370

Status: Offline
  Message Not Read  RE: My computer projects...
   Posted: 8/16/2013 7:42:51 PM 
Games are played on the field. I don't care what the computers say. If you would have ran the Program in 2005 for the Pitt game, sure it would've played out Pitt winning.

I am and forever will be the Wizard of OU.

DocBobcat was my Principal; and is still one cool Cat.

OHIO BOBCATS 2011,2012 MAC EAST FOOTBALL CHAMPIONS
                               2012 Independence Bowl Champions
                               2012 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Champions
                               2011 MAC Tournament Champions (Field Hockey)
                               2012 MAC Tournament Champions (Mens Basketball)
                               2012 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 (Mens Basketball)
                            


 
 
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OhioStunter
General User



Member Since: 2/18/2005
Location: Chicago
Post Count: 2,516

Status: Offline
  Message Not Read  RE: My computer projects...
   Posted: 8/16/2013 9:02:01 PM 
Is this your computer?

Last Edited: 8/16/2013 9:50:02 PM by OhioStunter
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JSF
General User



Member Since: 1/29/2005
Location: Houston, TX
Post Count: 6,549

Status: Offline
  Message Not Read  RE: My computer projects...
   Posted: 8/17/2013 12:41:57 AM 
Bert Presley wrote:
Games are played on the field. I don't care what the computers say.


We're still on this crap? Everyone knows games are played by actual people. Nobody is making the suggestion outcomes are a given or predetermined by computer. What they do is a pretty good job of giving you a reasonable idea of what to expect in a situation where randomness is essentially taken out of the equation. The randomness of a single game still exists, which is why exactly zero computer forecasters suggest you take the predictions as gospel. It's information.

"Loyalty to a hometown or city is fleeting and interchangeable, but college is a stamp of identity."- Kyle Whelliston, One Beautiful Season.

My blog about depression and mental illness: https://bit.ly/3buGXH8

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L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,497

Status: Offline
  Message Not Read  RE: My computer projects...
   Posted: 8/17/2013 1:11:02 AM 
JSF wrote:
...Everyone knows games are played by actual people. Nobody is making the suggestion outcomes are a given or predetermined by computer. ...

Exactly. Obviously there is no way for Ohio to win exactly 6.8 games, so it clearly is not a deterministic number. The idea is that the number of wins that Ohio ends up with is likely to be in the vicinity of 6.8. They might win 7, or even 8, or only 4, 5, or 6, depending on injuries, how the ball bounces, etc. Could Buffalo or Kent win the East, instead of it being BG or Ohio? Sure, anyone can.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Deciduous Forest Cat
General User

Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Ohio
Post Count: 4,466

Status: Offline
  Message Not Read  RE: My computer projects...
   Posted: 8/17/2013 11:00:36 AM 
L.C. wrote:
JSF wrote:
...Everyone knows games are played by actual people. Nobody is making the suggestion outcomes are a given or predetermined by computer. ...

Exactly. Obviously there is no way for Ohio to win exactly 6.8 games, so it clearly is not a deterministic number. The idea is that the number of wins that Ohio ends up with is likely to be in the vicinity of 6.8. They might win 7, or even 8, or only 4, 5, or 6, depending on injuries, how the ball bounces, etc. Could Buffalo or Kent win the East, instead of it being BG or Ohio? Sure, anyone can.


Man, remember two decades ago... what we would have given to win 6.8 games? ;)
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Bert Presley
General User



Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Where OHIO is winning and Miami is getting whipped, OH
Post Count: 370

Status: Offline
  Message Not Read  RE: My computer projects...
   Posted: 8/17/2013 12:18:27 PM 
Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:
L.C. wrote:
JSF wrote:
...Everyone knows games are played by actual people. Nobody is making the suggestion outcomes are a given or predetermined by computer. ...

Exactly. Obviously there is no way for Ohio to win exactly 6.8 games, so it clearly is not a deterministic number. The idea is that the number of wins that Ohio ends up with is likely to be in the vicinity of 6.8. They might win 7, or even 8, or only 4, 5, or 6, depending on injuries, how the ball bounces, etc. Could Buffalo or Kent win the East, instead of it being BG or Ohio? Sure, anyone can.


Man, remember two decades ago... what we would have given to win 6.8 games? ;)


I gave my 4th born male child to Scientology. 

I am and forever will be the Wizard of OU.

DocBobcat was my Principal; and is still one cool Cat.

OHIO BOBCATS 2011,2012 MAC EAST FOOTBALL CHAMPIONS
                               2012 Independence Bowl Champions
                               2012 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Champions
                               2011 MAC Tournament Champions (Field Hockey)
                               2012 MAC Tournament Champions (Mens Basketball)
                               2012 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 (Mens Basketball)
                            


 
 
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L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,497

Status: Offline
  Message Not Read  RE: My computer projects...
   Posted: 8/27/2013 1:12:36 PM 
This website uses about the same methodology as I do, but presumably a much more sophisticated version of it, and runs it for all the teams, not just Ohio. Last year their predictions were about the same as mine. This year they are very similar as well. As the year progresses, and actual results come in, and we update our predictions based on them, my predictions and theirs will converge. For now the green tint to my glasses leads to a forecast of 9.8 wins for Ohio, while they have only 7.

Last Edited: 8/27/2013 1:15:29 PM by L.C.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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C Money
General User



Member Since: 8/28/2010
Post Count: 3,420

Status: Offline
  Message Not Read  RE: My computer projects...
   Posted: 8/27/2013 1:59:17 PM 
That TeamRankings.com site has us less likely to beat North Texas than Terd? 
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OhioStunter
General User



Member Since: 2/18/2005
Location: Chicago
Post Count: 2,516

Status: Offline
  Message Not Read  RE: My computer projects...
   Posted: 8/27/2013 2:48:02 PM 
Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:
L.C. wrote:
JSF wrote:
...Everyone knows games are played by actual people. Nobody is making the suggestion outcomes are a given or predetermined by computer. ...

Exactly. Obviously there is no way for Ohio to win exactly 6.8 games, so it clearly is not a deterministic number. The idea is that the number of wins that Ohio ends up with is likely to be in the vicinity of 6.8. They might win 7, or even 8, or only 4, 5, or 6, depending on injuries, how the ball bounces, etc. Could Buffalo or Kent win the East, instead of it being BG or Ohio? Sure, anyone can.


Man, remember two decades ago... what we would have given to win 6.8 games? ;)


One year I think we only won .8 games.
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