BobcatAttack.com - For Fans of Ohio University Sports

Welcome Guest!
Create an Account

site search

about us

advertise with us

help

BobcatAttack.com Message Board

Ohio Football

Topic: MAC Divisional Races

Topic: MAC Divisional Races

Author

Message

L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,494

Status: Offline

MAC Divisional Races

Posted: 10/21/2013 3:03:14 PM

Midway through the MAC season, some clarity is starting to emerge. There are 3 good teams on each side on the conference. Among these 6 teams there are only two crossover games pitting a top team in the East against a top team in the West, those being Toledo at BG which is this weekend, and Buffalo at Toledo on November 12th. Those games will have a major impact on both races.

In the West:
It comes down to Ball State, NIU, and Toledo. Each of these, in games against the other two, plays one at home, and one on the road. Ball State already beat Toledo to win their home game, but has to play NIU on the road. NIU has the home game remaining against Ball State, but must play Toledo on the road. If everyone wins at home, and loses on the road, and they all take care of their other games, they will all have 1 loss, and you could get some crazy tie-breaker scenarios.

The problem here is that the scheduling gods were not nice to Toledo, and that while Ball State and NIU play none of the best teams in the East, Toledo plays 2 of them. In order to get to these crazy tie-breakers, Toledo must win both crossover games, the first being this weekend's Toledo-BG game. If Toledo loses to either BG or Buffalo, the 3-way tie scenario is out, which brings us to the likely scenario that the West will be decided on November 13th by the Ball State at NIU game.

In the East:
Ohio already messed up against CMU, so they must now win out to win the East. Both their key games are on the road, @BG, and @ Buffalo, and so they will be underdogs in both games. Ohio has no choice, they must win out. Win out, they go to the MACC, lose any game they don't.

If Ohio doesn't win out, then the winner of the East will be the winner of the BG-Buffalo game if they also beat either Toledo or Ohio. There is one crazy scenario out there that leads to crazy co-championships, and wild tie-breakers. Suppose that Toledo beats both Buffalo and BG, and that Ohio-Buffalo-BG split games. Then you end up with a 3 co-champs of the East at 5-2, and 3 co-champs in the West, with all teams at 6-1. Let's not even go there.

Team Rankings rates the odds this way:
                   Divisional Champ      MAC Champ
NIU                      56.9%             33.1%
Ball State               39.2%             21.4%
Toledo                  3.9%              2.1%

Buffalo                  22.8%              8.7%
BG                       59.5%             26.9%
Ohio                     17.6%              7.7%

Last Edited: 10/21/2013 3:04:19 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

OhioStunter
General User

Member Since: 2/18/2005
Location: Chicago
Post Count: 2,516

Status: Offline

RE: MAC Divisional Races

Posted: 10/21/2013 6:06:42 PM

L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,494

Status: Offline

RE: MAC Divisional Races

Posted: 10/21/2013 6:34:51 PM

Nope. I'm telling you I believe.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

71 BOBCAT
General User

Member Since: 12/20/2004
Post Count: 1,903

Status: Offline

RE: MAC Divisional Races

Posted: 10/21/2013 7:55:32 PM

I'm with you L.C.

GO BOBCATS

Victory
General User

Member Since: 3/10/2012
Post Count: 2,307

Status: Offline

RE: MAC Divisional Races

Posted: 10/21/2013 8:07:05 PM

L.C. wrote:

Team Rankings rates the odds this way:
                   Divisional Champ      MAC Champ
NIU                      56.9%             33.1%
Ball State               39.2%             21.4%
Toledo                  3.9%              2.1%

Buffalo                  22.8%              8.7%
BG                       59.5%             26.9%
Ohio                     17.6%              7.7%

I figured L.C. would love that site.

Antonio Pierce
General User

Member Since: 10/13/2012
Post Count: 243

Status: Offline

RE: MAC Divisional Races

Posted: 10/22/2013 7:56:00 AM

Kent State and Toledo can both really help us out this week. I would expect our division winner to have at least one MAC loss and would not be surprised with two losses MAC losses for the divisional winner.

Don't let one day define the rest of your life.

UpSan Bobcat
General User

Member Since: 8/30/2005
Location: Upper Sandusky, OH
Post Count: 3,812

Status: Offline

RE: MAC Divisional Races

Posted: 10/22/2013 9:00:03 AM

Antonio Pierce wrote:

I agree with this. The winner easily could have two losses. Kent State pretty much is out of the race now but is good enough to be a spoiler for Ohio or Buffalo (BG already beat Kent). BG and Buffalo have tough cross-divisional games against Toledo. Then honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if any of the teams has a really bad game (like Ohio vs. CMU) and loses to someone they really have no business losing to (BG plays Miami and EMU; Buffalo plays at Miami).

bobcat695
General User

Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Parkersburg, WV
Post Count: 1,345

Status: Offline

RE: MAC Divisional Races

Posted: 10/22/2013 9:59:19 AM

L.C. wrote:

Ohio already messed up against CMU, so they must now win out to win the East. Both their key games are on the road, @BG, and @ Buffalo, and so they will be underdogs in both games.

Not necessarily. I'll wait for Vegas to set the line before I declare Buffalo the favorite in that game. I do think BG will be around a 6 point favorite, but OU may still be the favorite vs. UB. I really think the OU/BG game will determine the team going to Detroit.

When I saw the schedule come out, I hated that game. The Ohio fans have travelled pretty well recently, but that game on a cold weeknight will be played in front of an empty stadium. To make matters worse, the OU/OSU hoops game is at the exact same time, so a lot of people (including me) will go to Columbus instead of BG.

Last Edited: 10/22/2013 10:06:54 AM by bobcat695

"You can't un-fist a fist pump." - Saul Phillips 1/24/15

LoganElm_grad09
General User

Member Since: 9/9/2010
Location: South Bloomingville, OH
Post Count: 934

Status: Offline

RE: MAC Divisional Races

Posted: 10/22/2013 12:04:21 PM

Okay so to be hypothetical,say we split Beefs and BG and beat Fiami, Kent and UMASS? Coupled with a Toledo sweep of the East. That would put us all at 6-2 with a record of 1-1 against the West. BG would be 8-4, Beefs would be 8-4, and we'd be 9-3. Would that make us the East representative?

L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,494

Status: Offline

RE: MAC Divisional Races

Posted: 10/22/2013 12:09:57 PM

LoganElm_grad09 wrote:

I don't know what the tiebreakers are, so I can't answer that. I suspect that the tiebreaker would be the MAC record of their cross-division foes. Since Ohio played CMU and EMU, while BG played EMU and Toledo, we would not win the tiebreaker. Let's not even go there. Ohio needs to win out.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Victory
General User

Member Since: 3/10/2012
Post Count: 2,307

Status: Offline

RE: MAC Divisional Races

Posted: 10/22/2013 12:18:09 PM

L.C. wrote:

LoganElm_grad09 wrote:

You are correct. We'd almost certainly lose. We have to win both games.
http://www.mac-sports.com/News/tabid/969/Article/127434/mac-football-tiebreaker.aspx

L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,494

Status: Offline

RE: MAC Divisional Races

Posted: 10/22/2013 12:35:13 PM

Hmm, but... you never get to #3. In a 3-way tie, Buffalo drops out because they don't have a game against Akron, so their record in division is worse than Ohio or BG. In that case you then go back to the BG-Ohio winner. Thus, maybe...if I read it right......and Toledo sweeps BG and Buffalo.......and Ohio beats BG........ then maybe a loss to Buffalo won't take Ohio out of the MACC. Let's not find out.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

UpSan Bobcat
General User

Member Since: 8/30/2005
Location: Upper Sandusky, OH
Post Count: 3,812

Status: Offline

RE: MAC Divisional Races

Posted: 10/22/2013 12:53:24 PM

I'm not sure, but tiebreaker No. 2 might be worded the way it is, noting raking order, to prevent a team from being punished for not playing one of the teams in the division: Record of tied teams within the division [versus rank order, highest to lowest, of division teams].

Either way, it's safe to say the odds of Ohio winning the MAC East without beating Bowling Green are almost non-existent. It probably would take BG losing to Buffalo, Toledo and either EMU or Miami, and obviously those chances are extremely low.

It is more reasonable for the Bobcats to lose to Buffalo and still win the East but it would probably mean the Bulls would have to lose to BG and perhaps Kent State while BG loses to Toledo.

The good thing is Ohio still controls its own destiny.

L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,494

Status: Offline

RE: MAC Divisional Races

Posted: 10/22/2013 4:11:47 PM

UpSan Bobcat wrote:

I took it to mean you look at the record versus Kent, then the record against Akron, then against U.Mass, then against Miami, if that is the order of finish. In the Toledo sweeps/3 way tie scenario, all would be 1-0 against Kent, but Ohio and BG would be 1-0 against Akron, while Buffalo would be 0-0.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,494

Status: Offline

RE: MAC Divisional Races

Posted: 10/26/2013 7:30:42 PM

The Toledo win over BG preserves the possibility of a bizarre finish with 3 way ties in both East and West. Meanwhile, NIU, Ball State, Ohio, and Buffalo all still control their own destiny, while Toledo and BG now need help.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Pataskala
General User

Member Since: 7/8/2010
Location: At least six feet away from anybody else
Post Count: 9,363

Status: Offline

RE: MAC Divisional Races

Posted: 10/26/2013 10:16:08 PM

L.C. wrote:

BG also controls its own. They still face both Ohio and Buffalo, so if they win out they'll be 7-1, Ohio would be 6-2 at best and Buffalo would be 7-1 at best, but BG would have the tiebreaker.

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,494

Status: Offline

RE: MAC Divisional Races

Posted: 10/27/2013 5:28:52 PM

L.C. wrote:

NIU                      51.0%             31.5% Down Slightly
Ball State               42.7%             23.9% Up slightly
Toledo                  6.3%              3.5% Up slightly

Buffalo                  37.8%             14.9% Up a lot
BG                       42.7%             18.2% Down a lot
Ohio                     19.5%              8.0% Barely up
Losing to Toledo made BG drop a lot, but they are still favored to win the East by Team Rankings. The Ohio-Buffalo game will move things a lot.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Monroe Slavin
General User

Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Oxnard, CA
Post Count: 9,121

Status: Offline

RE: MAC Divisional Races

Posted: 10/27/2013 5:55:19 PM

Interestingly--no, not really--I look at the opponents which we and Balls have in common and I'm much more confident of our chances against them than NIU at this point...should that MACC matter.

Where's the band?!
WHERE"S THE BAND?!

DesignspiritUSA.com
The Pets On The Go Collection of pet gear travel bags
The Holiday Tote Bigg Bagg Collection--over-sized, reversible, extra pockets; now love carrying packages as much as you love shopping!

OhioCatFan
General User

Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 14,743

Status: Offline

RE: MAC Divisional Races

Posted: 10/29/2013 10:56:59 AM

I went to the coach's show at Donatos last night. I came away with the impression that Frank will be bringing his "A" game to the remaining part of the schedule. He seemed very confident without being cocky. He also seemed very relaxed and was quite sarcastic and humorous. At one point, he told Russell that he'd like to hire him as a defensive coordinator -- for the other team! This was in response to a statement that Russell had made about the fade route in the end zone that Frank took exception to. I've noticed in the past that when Frank is in this kind of a mood, he seems to do his best coaching. Just one man's anecdotal observation. No rigorous data or statistical analysis to back it up.

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

Beat Michigan
General User

Member Since: 8/15/2013
Location: Almost Heaven
Post Count: 245

Status: Offline

RE: MAC Divisional Races

Posted: 10/29/2013 7:54:22 PM

So Frank hasn't been bringing his A game every week so far?

Bcat2
General User

Member Since: 7/6/2010
Post Count: 4,295

Status: Offline

RE: MAC Divisional Races

Posted: 10/29/2013 8:25:27 PM

Chris_PHS89 wrote:

So Frank hasn't been bringing his A game every week so far?

Coach Solich has been at this a long time. If you are thinking/expecting he has his team peaking every week, well, I don't. This is not to say they are jogging thru games. They are expected to outperform the opponent every week. However, there is an intensity that comes when your back is against the wall. What is being said is at this point coach is feeling the wall and well I hope you get it.

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,494

Status: Offline

RE: MAC Divisional Races

Posted: 11/3/2013 2:36:10 PM

From Team Rankings:
                Division                       MAC Champ
       2 wks ago Last wk Now          2 Wks Ago Last Wk    Now
Ohio     17.6%   19.5% 21.3%    7.7%     8.0%    7.2%
BUGS     59.5      42.7 42.0     26.9     18.2    16.9
Buffalo 22.8      37.8     36.7            8.7 14.9    12.7

NIU      56.9    51.0     55.9           33.1       31.5    37.8
Ball St 39.2      42.7     37.2           21.4       23.9    21.2
Toledo    3.9       6.3    6.9    2.1    3.9 4.2

Not much change this week, but there are some big games in the next 9 days:
Tuesday, Nov 5 - Ohio@Buffalo
Tuesday, Nov 12 - Ohio@BG
Tuesday, Nov 12 - Buffalo@Toledo
Wed, Nov 13 - Ball State@NIU>

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

TWT
General User

Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Alexandria, VA
Post Count: 5,169

Status: Offline

RE: MAC Divisional Races

Posted: 11/3/2013 4:31:53 PM

Bcat2 wrote:

Chris_PHS89 wrote:

So Frank hasn't been bringing his A game every week so far?

The way the staff had the game plan in place for Marshall gives me hope they'll cook something up for K.Mack and company for Tuesday night. The personnel is there to provide some different looks on blocking schemes. The extra 3 days to prepare helps Ohio get something in place.

Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

bobcat2nc
General User

Member Since: 12/28/2004
Post Count: 584

Status: Offline

RE: MAC Divisional Races

Posted: 11/4/2013 12:03:11 AM

Uncle Wes wrote:

Bcat2 wrote:

Chris_PHS89 wrote:

So Frank hasn't been bringing his A game every week so far?

I like to think that Frank has brought his A game every week but in doing so he only used part of the arsenal that is available. Expecting and hoping for more intensity and some different looks on both sides of the ball in the next 2 games..but, as always, my glasses are tinted a bit green.

Showing Replies:	1 - 24 of 24 Posts
Jump to Page:	1

View Other 'Ohio Football' Topics

There are 553 Active Visitors on BobcatAttack.com

552 Guests
1 Registered User:
	RufusCat09

There are no other users looking at this page.