BobcatAttack.com - For Fans of Ohio University Sports

Welcome Guest!
Create an Account

site search

about us

advertise with us

help

BobcatAttack.com Message Board

Ohio Football

Topic: Has Ohio plateaued?

Topic: Has Ohio plateaued?

Author

Message

L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,494

Status: Offline

Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/14/2013 3:08:55 PM

I tend to watch recruiting because that gives me some insight into the future. Watching recruiting, however, isn't easy, because the recruiting services focus most of their efforts on the top 25 teams, and on the 4 and 5-star players, and not much effort on the 2-star players. I use a variety of methods to try to evaluate them. Probably the most accurate is the number of other teams that have made offers to the players. Before making an offer, the other team obviously did a thorough evaluation, and saw something, and, more importantly, they put their money where their mouth is. By contrast, on 2-star players, I think that the recruiting services often give little more than a passing glance.

When a player comes in, they normally redshirt the first year. Even if they play as a true freshman, they normally don't play a lot, and rarely start. The key players on a team are usually the Juniors and Seniors, meaning that the quality of a team is actually determined by the quality of recruits 4-5 years earlier.

So, how have recruiting classes looked? I have tracked this data mostly since 2006. Without going into too much depth about how i compute the numbers:

     # of Freshmn   Method 1 Method 2 Oth Offers Early Accept   # True Fresh played
2005     23            2.95                .1            0               10
2006     17            2.65       173      .82           1                5
2007    20    2.65       180      .75           6                4
2008     15          2.93       224     2.00           1                2
2009     17            3.00       225     1.18           2                3
2010     12            2.42       238     1.00           3                1
2011     21            3.09     297     2.62           4                2
2012     13            3.31       317     2.77           5                2
2013     17          3.29       294     2.42          12                6
2014     15            3.30 305     2.47          14

Method 1 and 2 are simply mathematical computations I do based on various inputs. Other offers is the number of other offers players had who chose Ohio, while Early Accepts is the number of early acceptances Ohio got from the initial batch of offers that Ohio sends out in Feb-June. The remainder of the class is generally players who got secondary offers in the December-January time frame.

There are three different recruiting coordinators. Germano years are blue, Isphording is Red, and Haines is green. Under Germano, you can see that recruits were steadily improving by all measures. The recruiting quality did take a notable drop in 2006-2007 after a certain "incident", but by 2008-2009 was back on track. The one year under Isphording was a step backwards, both smaller, and not as good. Worse, many of those players have left the program already, so that year is kind of a hole in the recruiting footprint. Under Haines you can see a continuation of the trend of improvement that we saw under Germano. By all of my measures the last few classes are the best yet.

By my estimate the early classes were in the lower half of the MAC. In 2005-2008, Ohio rarely won recruiting battles with other schools. If a kid had offers from some other MAC school and Ohio, they rarely would pick Ohio. Ohio got good players by looking where other schools weren't looking, and taking under-appreciated players. As a result you saw most recruits coming from out of state, places like Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. In recent years that no longer is true - players with an offer from Ohio and another MAC school now are more likely to choose Ohio than the other MAC school. As a result you see an increasing percentage of Ohio recruits coming from Ohio. In 2008 and 2009 only 4 and 2 respectively of the recruits were from Ohio. So far this year 12 of the 15 recruits are from Ohio.

If there is a steady trend upward in the quality of recruiting classes, why aren't we seeing that on the field? I attribute it to the two recruiting gaps. The first was 2006-7, after the "incident", and the second was the gap in 2010 under Isphording. Teams are normally made up predominately of the Junior and Senior classes, with depth provided by the younger players. Last year's team was mad up predominately of the 2008-2009 recruiting classes, which were a step up from the gap before. This year's team is supposed to be made up of 2009-2010, but because of the hole in 2010, we see a lot of players from 2011-12 playing, but they are only Freshmen/Sophomores. With no injuries, this was still a pretty good team. With injuries, it became a young team in a hurry.

What will next year bring? Sadly, the apparent plateau will continue. Next year should be made of 2010-2011 players. There are very few players left from the 2010 class, so instead it will be made of 2011-2012 players. They are good, but young. They will have to really overachieve to win a MAC East, in my opinion. A 7-9 win season is more likely than 10+.

What about 2015 and beyond? Now you are going to be looking at teams made up primarily of 2011-2012-2013 players. Those classes continue to improve, perhaps not as fast as some recruiting "haters" would like, but my number do show continuing improvement. Thus, the teams should be significant step up from the current "plateau".

In summary, I see 3 distinct stages. I see 2005-2008, where teams were made up primarily of Knorr recruits and early Solich recruits. Those teams were not that great, though the 2006 team was an overachiever and won the MAC East anyway with a very good Senior class, and exceptional Senior leadership. I see a second stage from 2009-2014 where the teams are made up primarily of Germano recruits. Those teams are pretty good - capable of winning the MAC East in good years. Then I see a new wave of improvement coming in 2015 and beyond. Thus, no, I don't think Ohio has plateaued. Well, they have temporarily, but only because of the bad 2010 class, which left a hole behind.

I actually have a table where I track comings and goings, and include Juco's, too, and adjust for player that never redshirt, to estimate team strength, past present and future. Here are my estimates (note - numbers are not proportional - 595 is not twice as good at 279):

       Est Stren     Record     Comments
2005 279 4-7
2006      366         9-5       (overachieved)
2007      359         6-6
2008      423         4-8 (underachieved)
2009      431         9-5
2010      453         8-5 (should have beaten Kent)
2011      488        10-4
2012      500         9-4 (excessive injuries)
2013      479 6-4 (underachieved, could still be 9-4)
2014      472                   Hoping for 9-4
2015     ~584                   Plateau is over
2016     ~595                   Plateau is over

Anyway, like everyone else, I'm very disappointed with how this season has turned out. I had hopes for a better year than we've seen, and surely for a better finish than the last two games. This team obviously has some internal issues, which I hope they will resolve before the last two games. My outlook for next year is tempered - it can be an OK team, but is probably going to continue the perception of a plateau, but beyond that, I have high hopes for the future.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Casper71
General User

Member Since: 12/1/2006
Post Count: 3,090

Status: Offline

RE: Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/14/2013 3:35:04 PM

You can put numbers to it all you want. I tend to look at examples. And, since I live in Cincinnati, I use them a lot. There was a time when the football programs where about even. With some really good coaches and putting some resources into the program, UC pulled away a bit (even though we went the better coach and resource way to albeit on a smaller scale). With the better coaches and resources came MANY MORE BETTER (3-STAR) PLAYERS. That is what I am talking about. Not under the radar guys who develop but solid 3-star guys to start with and coach up. Now, UC tends to get at least 10-15 3-star guys a year. That is what we need. It is more than just beating out Kent or Miami ir EMU for a player. We MUST win more recruiting battles vs an Ind or KY or WVU or even UC now. I thought this staff could do that. Now, not so sure.

Robert Fox
General User

Member Since: 11/16/2004
Location: Knoxville, TN
Post Count: 2,039

Status: Offline

RE: Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/14/2013 3:41:17 PM

I appreciate the effort you put into this, LC. It's a solid look at the facts. Overall, we're improving, and that is demonstrated by your analysis. That 2010 class is hurting the program, and will continue to hurt the program. Hopefully, we can ride out the storm without throwing out the baby.

The Optimist
General User

Member Since: 3/16/2007
Location: CLE
Post Count: 5,590

Status: Offline

RE: Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/14/2013 3:56:53 PM

I'm excited to see where this program heads with an IPF and highway connection to an international airport. That is a major infrastructure resource at our disposal that we didn't have a couple years ago.

I'm frustrated with the results but at the same time Frank is responsible for getting us to thus point of mass frustration. Pre-Frank, we plateaued as a perennial losing program.

Last Edited: 11/14/2013 3:57:31 PM by The Optimist

I've seen crazier things happen.

L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,494

Status: Offline

RE: Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/14/2013 3:59:09 PM

If Ohio were to move up to the AAC, 10-15 a year might be a reasonable goal. No MAC team has ever recruited 15 of them, and only a handful of teams have ever recruited over 5 in a year. per Scout.com, the only times a MAC teams have been over 5 have been:
Akron - 2007 (6)
Ohio - 2011 (7)
BG - 2011 (6)
CMU - 2013 (6)
Toledo - 2011 (9), 2012 (10), 2013 (10)

So far this year WMU has 12, and Ball State has 7, but it remains to be seen how many actually sign.

In the absence of such a major change as a jump to the AAC or to 15 3-star recruits, my numbers try to capture smaller incremental improvements.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Rufus25
General User

Member Since: 2/10/2013
Location: Fishers, IN
Post Count: 28

Status: Offline

RE: Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/14/2013 4:10:47 PM

Quite the analysis, L.C. Clearly you have been on top of things for several years. It is reflected in most of your other posts.
Although the 'star' rating is useful in some terms of recruiting, I do find it to be a bit overrated. Unless you are a clear cut dominant 5 star talent, how you honestly rank athletes past that? There are too many of them to give a true accurate assessment. I feel that coaches, especially at this level, rely a lot on the word of the high school coaches (which are in most cases biased) and the hometown 'hype' a player gets. Every, Tom, Dick, and Joe getting on JJ Huddle putting in their two cents. Which I understand completely. The lifestyle and time commitment for coaching is noting short of amazing.
Plateau, I feel, is an excellent description. Like training (which my background is in) athletes will become stagnant...reach a point in training and struggle mightily to break through it. There are a few ways to overcome this plateau....keep doing what your have been, beat your head against the wall, push harder, and eventually get hurt (which is insanity). Or change it up. Do something a bit different, don't let your body get used to the 'routine'.
The bulk of this staff, Frank, Gerry, Jimmy & Tim, have been together for almost a decade. The offense has changed up a bit as new players roll in, but the ideology has not. I am not at all calling for anyone's head here, but maybe a key addition....or a demotion in coordinating rolls.
We keep getting invited to the dance...I'm ready to be crowned the king.

L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,494

Status: Offline

RE: Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/14/2013 4:28:14 PM

By the way, Casper, I'm not disagreeing that better talent is important, nor that better talent in the end "should" lead to better results. My point is that the "star" system isn't accurate enough at the 2-3 star level to capture smaller incremental changes in overall quality of the class. That's why my inputs include things like the number of other schools that made offers to the same player, or the number of early offers. It's still hit or miss, but I see steady, though small, incremental improvements in recruiting, year after year. If you compare this year's class to, say, 2005-2008, I think you'll see a difference using almost any measure, not just by my measures.

Rufus25 wrote:

.... We keep getting invited to the dance...I'm ready to be crowned the king.

Well, my hopes for next year aren't that high, but you never know.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

TWT
General User

Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Alexandria, VA
Post Count: 5,169

Status: Offline

RE: Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/14/2013 6:00:34 PM

The reality of the situation is Frank is under contract for 4 more seasons. Worse case scenario and the program completely falls off the tracks he's got at least 2 more years. Two more years of Solich ball and easy Solich non-conference schedules. The program is going to have to transition successfully post TT and Blankenship. The ugly losses this year are the type you see pop up toward the end of a regime.The Kent State loss in 2010 and NO bowl failure was also ugly but Frank responded by having a good QB in waiting with TT. Frank has been here before and preserved so I guess conventional thinking is that he will succeed again with recruiting at an all time high point under his direction.

Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

The Pessimist
General User

Member Since: 3/12/2005
Location: Allentown, PA
Post Count: 145

Status: Offline

RE: Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/14/2013 7:41:52 PM

Uncle Wes wrote:

Two more years of Solich ball and easy Solich non-conference schedules.

What more do you want? Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State. Tennessee, Kentucky. Louisville, Schiano's Rutgers, and Kansas.

I don't think playing Bama and LSU in the same season is going to help us.

Cats-22
General User

Member Since: 9/30/2006
Post Count: 370

Status: Offline

RE: Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/14/2013 8:43:16 PM

Talking about how great LCs posts are gets kind of tiresome. But, this thread is without question as good as it gets for message board posting, I just feel like I have to say it. I want to encourage this behavior.

Now, as for the conclusions, I think I buy them. I wonder if the "other offers" information might be subject to inflation, because we're hearing about offers now that just weren't reported before (recruiting info in general has been improving over the years). But any effect there is probably minor. You certainly can't argue with the freshman who played metric.

Monroe Slavin
General User

Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Oxnard, CA
Post Count: 9,121

Status: Offline

RE: Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/14/2013 9:37:55 PM

L.C.--You oughta sell this analysis....get some pay for your efforts.

Where's the band?!
WHERE"S THE BAND?!

DesignspiritUSA.com
The Pets On The Go Collection of pet gear travel bags
The Holiday Tote Bigg Bagg Collection--over-sized, reversible, extra pockets; now love carrying packages as much as you love shopping!

BillyTheCat
General User

Member Since: 10/6/2012
Post Count: 10,391

Status: Offline

RE: Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/14/2013 10:01:33 PM

The Pessimist wrote:

Uncle Wes wrote:

Two more years of Solich ball and easy Solich non-conference schedules.

How many of these were already scheduled?

L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,494

Status: Offline

RE: Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/14/2013 11:47:14 PM

catatonic wrote:

... I wonder if the "other offers" information might be subject to inflation, because we're hearing about offers now that just weren't reported before (recruiting info in general has been improving over the years). But any effect there is probably minor. You certainly can't argue with the freshman who played metric.

There is clearly some inflation at work in some of the measures. For example, Scout used to rate people as 1 star, now the minimum is 2 stars. Rivals used to have a lowest rating of 4.9, now the minimum is 5.2. As you point out, there may be some in "other offers", too. I also think it is possible that they give more "3 star" ratings out than before. It's difficult for me to assess the impact of these, but knowing what goes into the two factors, the "Method 2" numbers are more subject to inflation than the "Method 1" numbers. Thus the result that "Method 2" is up 80% while "Method 1" is up only 10% doesn't surprise me. I think that the 10% is more accurate.

I know that some people would like to see a quick jump for Ohio from bottom-of-the MAC recruiting to mid-AAC level recruiting. Heck, i would, too, but I don't think it will happen. Of all the coaches we've seen come and go in the MAC, none have been able to recruit at that level, with the exception of PJ Fleck, and while he's gotten some very good verbals, his long-term overall track record as a coach is unproven. Therefore, in the absence of an immediate jump to all 3-star recruits, I have tried to find measures that have some accuracy, and yet can pick up more incremental moves.

As far as playing true freshmen, that's a mixed bag as a metric, too. Sometimes a Freshman gets played because he is just really good, while other times he gets played because of a lack of depth, or because of injuries. You saw high numbers in the early years due to a lack of depth, and then the numbers tapered off. They are high again this year. While injuries were the reason you saw Mangen and Wood playing, they are also good, and the only reason you are seeing players like Stewart, Sayles, Basham, and Sebastian Smith is because they are good.

In the end the best test of my methods is whether my long term predictions based on them have been accurate. I think they have been.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

GoCats105
General User

Member Since: 1/31/2006
Location: Seattle, WA
Post Count: 7,432

Status: Offline

RE: Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/15/2013 8:08:57 AM

The Pessimist wrote:

Uncle Wes wrote:

Two more years of Solich ball and easy Solich non-conference schedules.

I get what you're saying, but please stop putting Kansas on this list. Big XII or not, beating them does nothing for Ohio's program other than broadening the recruiting base.

Last Edited: 11/15/2013 8:09:24 AM by GoCats105

L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,494

Status: Offline

RE: Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/15/2013 6:35:25 PM

For those that buy into the notion that the recruiting service ratings, are accurate, it isn't like the cupboard is empty. Even here the numbers are growing. The average per year was 3 a year from 2005-2008, then 5 a year in 2009-2010, and has been 8 a year from 2011-2014. Here's a list of the three star and better recruits:
2005 (3) - Brandon Jones (Scout) plus xfers Hinton (4 in both), Bower (3 in both)
2006 (5) - Horace Hubbard (Rivals), Hodge (Rivals), McCrae (Scout) plus JUCO Alan Goff (Rivals, Scout), Nwokocha (4 from Scout)
2007 (1) - xfer Braunstein (4 Scout, 3 Rivals)
2008 (3) - Jucos Tafua (Scout), Hilton Dawson (Rivals, Scout), Boo Jackson (4 Scout, 3 Rivals)
2009 (7) - Lechner (Scout, Rivals, ESPN), Hughes (ESPN, Rivals), Gary Fortune (Rivals), James Davis (ESPN), Jelani Woseley (Rivals) plus xfer Phillip Bates (Rivals, ESPN), Jerry Gross (Rivals)
2010 (3) - xfers John Prior (All), Kyle Kozak (Rivals), Omar Leftwich (Rivals)
2011 (14) - Ben Russell (Rivals, ESPN), Landon Smith (Scout), Crutcher (ESPN, Scout), Eric Price (Rivals), Tony Davis (Scout), Jacob Welter (Scout, Rivals), Lorenzo Fisher (Rivals), Justin Haser (Scout), Kyle Hammonds (Scout), Andrew Bennet (Scout), Lucas Powell (Rivals), Grant Venham (ESPN), plus juco Tyler Knight (Rivals) and xfer Beau Blankenship (All)
2012 (5) - Gibbons (Rivals), Sebastian Smith (Rivals, Scout), Schany (Rivals, ESPN), plus Jucos Tim Edmond (Rivals, ESPN), Wade Wells (Rivals)
2013 (7) - Wyatt (ESPN), James Alexander (Scout), Tate Leavitt (Scout), Zach Murdock (Rivals, 247), Corey Quallen (247), Mason Morgan (247), Cedric Brown (247)
2014 Verbals (8) - Duckworth (All), Lowrey (All), Walker (247, ESPN), Brumfield (Scout), Brunson (Scout), Connor Brown (247) plus Juco Chris Murray (Rivals), Clark (Scout, Rivals)

Note - in the early years ESPN didn't give stars. Then they called 7.5 and up 3 stars. Now 7.0 and up is 3 stars. For the early years before they actually gave stars I used 7.5 and up

By the way, those that are astute might notice that none of the players who were drafted made this list, that many other players we consider to be the best players of the Solich era are missing as well. I think that Ohio is now getting a better grade of 3-star players, so in the future that may no longer be true.

This method also provides no support for the perspective that Ohio has plateaued. Note in particular the big jump in the number 3-star players in 2011 and after. These are Freshmen and Sophomores, mostly. They are the group that I expect to power the next step up in Ohio football, in 2015-2016, when they are Juniors and Seniors. Note also that this method also shows a recruiting "hole" in 2010 - without counting transfers, there were none at all.

Last Edited: 11/15/2013 6:38:34 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Paul Graham
General User

Member Since: 1/18/2005
Location: The Plains, OH
Post Count: 1,424

Status: Offline

RE: Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/15/2013 7:42:18 PM

LC,

While I appreciate your attempt to quantify the status of the program, the fact is the results on the field suggest otherwise.

And its not only the scoreboard. The athletes that are on the field today are no better, or in some cases noticeably worse, than prior years.

Take 2009 (admittedly cherry picked):

In the defensive backfield we had Travis (still got 'em obviously), Joonie, Thad Turner, Stephen Jackson, Tafua, Gerald Moore, Idris Lawrence, Donovan Fletcher, etc... That group is FAR better than what we have now.

What about LB's? Keller, Renfro, Ejike, Benjamin. I'd take this group over the 2013 team.

DL? Marcellis, Ernie, Dak, Stafford Gatlin. Again...I'll take them.

What about receivers? Brazill, Price, Mcrae! Oh man, not even close.

QB? Damn...at this point I'll take Theo Scott.

Here's the Paul Graham challenge LC...name me a position group (other than RB where I admit Beau is fantastic) where we are noticeably better than in prior years. OR, alternatively, name me a position group where it LOOKS LIKE we are going to be noticeably better than prior years.

OhioStunter
General User

Member Since: 2/18/2005
Location: Chicago
Post Count: 2,516

Status: Offline

RE: Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/15/2013 7:55:43 PM

The Pessimist wrote:

Uncle Wes wrote:

Two more years of Solich ball and easy Solich non-conference schedules.

It hasn't hurt Buffalo.

(but I agree with you anyway)

OhioStunter
General User

Member Since: 2/18/2005
Location: Chicago
Post Count: 2,516

Status: Offline

RE: Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/15/2013 7:57:36 PM

LC,
Is there a way to evaluate BA posters?

L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,494

Status: Offline

RE: Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/15/2013 8:18:27 PM

Paul Graham wrote:

...Take 2009 (admittedly cherry picked):

In the defensive backfield we had Travis (still got 'em obviously), Joonie, Thad Turner, Stephen Jackson, Tafua, Gerald Moore, Idris Lawrence, Donovan Fletcher, etc... That group is FAR better than what we have now.

What about LB's? Keller, Renfro, Ejike, Benjamin. I'd take this group over the 2013 team.

DL? Marcellis, Ernie, Dak, Stafford Gatlin. Again...I'll take them.

What about receivers? Brazill, Price, Mcrae! Oh man, not even close.

QB? Damn...at this point I'll take Theo Scott.

I'm not going to argue that point with you, as compared to the current team, but I think that the team 2 years out will be just as good, and especially on the line, even better. Before I go on to that, I want to point out that, having just posted my list of 3-star players, you made one of my points for me.

L.C. wrote:

.. those that are astute might notice that none of the players who were drafted made this list, that many other players we consider to be the best players of the Solich era are missing as well...

(I bolded the few players that you mentioned that were on the list of 3-star players)

Paul Graham wrote:

Here's the Paul Graham challenge LC...name me a position group (other than RB where I admit Beau is fantastic) where we are noticeably better than in prior years. OR, alternatively, name me a position group where it LOOKS LIKE we are going to be noticeably better than prior years.

Now, moving to a look ahead at the teams of the future:
Defensive line - In those years you had one true DT, Marcellis, plus and Hodge (converted DE), plus for depth Carl Jones (converted DE) and Huynh (converted DE). Next year you'll have Crutcher, McLeod, Tony Davis, Brandon Purdum, Tautiaiki, plus Aloese and Porter, plus Clark, if he comes. Of those, only Davis and Purdum are converted DEs. I think some of those are going to be very good players. At DE in 2009 you had Notestine and Reilly backed up by Tremayne Scott and Gatling. In a couple years you will be looking at Basham, Sayles, Laseak, plus some new guys we haven't seen yet. The 2009 group was very good, but this group is, too.

Offensive Line - In 2009 you had Rodgers, Strum, White, Flowers and Bunner, plus for depth you had Herman, Carlotta, and Flading. Give the current crop of Freshmen 2 years, and I think McQueen, Lucas, Powell, Wood, and Watson, plus Gibbons, Welter, Haser, Everhart, Curtis, Murdock, and Leavitt and you are going to have a significantly better line. Today that group is not as good as the 2009 starters, but with 2 more years experience, they will be.

At LB, again, there are a lot of young players playing. In 2 years, you'll still have Ben Russell, Jovon Johnson, Schany, William Johnson, and Blair Brown. With 2 more years of experience, that is going to be a very good group. They have the speed - they just need the experience and maturity.

AT WR, it would be hard to top the group of Brazill, Price, Futrell, McCrae, plus Gary Fortune, but I think you'll feel the same way in a couple years about Sebastian Smith, Landon Smith, Jordan Reid, Cedric Brown, Justin Wyatt, and Chris Murray (if he comes).

There are a few positions that I feel less certain about, and unfortunately they are key positions. QB needs to be settled, and more RB's are needed. DB is also a place I'd like to see more talent. That's exactly why, on the recruiting forum, I have been calling for more recruits at these specific positions.

Last Edited: 11/15/2013 8:22:26 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Paul Graham
General User

Member Since: 1/18/2005
Location: The Plains, OH
Post Count: 1,424

Status: Offline

RE: Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/16/2013 1:51:00 AM

L.C. wrote:

Paul Graham wrote:

L.C. wrote:

.. those that are astute might notice that none of the players who were drafted made this list, that many other players we consider to be the best players of the Solich era are missing as well...

(I bolded the few players that you mentioned that were on the list of 3-star players)

Paul Graham wrote:

Very reasonable response LC, and its hard to argue with your conclusions :) I agree, DL will be a strength for the next few years.

With the other groups its less clear...we'll have to see how it all plays out. However, I think its quite obvious that this year's team is historically down talent-wise...and that may spill over into next season too. I guess I'm just curious how that could have happened, given the program's momentum and continuity.

colobobcat66
General User

Member Since: 9/1/2006
Location: Watching the bobcats run outside my window., CO
Post Count: 4,546

Status: Offline

RE: Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/16/2013 9:03:06 AM

The Pessimist wrote:

Uncle Wes wrote:

Two more years of Solich ball and easy Solich non-conference schedules.

we are playing weak schedules. That is not deniable. Pretty much every MAC team plays at least 1AQ team, many play 2. Check out Miami, NIU and Toledo for more challenging schedules.

L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,494

Status: Offline

RE: Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/16/2013 10:46:08 AM

Paul Graham wrote:

...With the other groups its less clear...we'll have to see how it all plays out. However, I think its quite obvious that this year's team is historically down talent-wise...and that may spill over into next season too. I guess I'm just curious how that could have happened, given the program's momentum and continuity.

As we get older, we get wiser. For a really good team, I now think you need not one good class, but two in a row, so that you have a good group of both Juniors and Seniors, and/or they also need to be really hungry. I predicted strong teams for 2011 and 2013 a long time ago because of the strong classes. Here is a non-complete list of some of the significant players who left, or will leave, year by year:

2005 - Dave Cody, Cole Wesley, Dion Byrum, Matthew Miller
2006 -Austin Everson, Michael Graham, Matt Lasher, Wm. Norwood, Matt Coppage, JJ Knabb, Scott Mayle, Matt Muncy, Tyler Russ, Rudy Sylvan, TJ Wright, Shane Yates
2007 - David Shelby, Chido Nwokocha, Jodan Myers, Kalvin McRae, Matt Miller, Todd Koenig, Landon Cohen, Braunstein, Josh Abrams
2008 - Mike Eynon, Chris Hall, Josh Leuck, David Carter, Barrett Way, Michael Brown, Mark Parson, Jameson Hartke, Michael Mitchell, Gary Schussler, Mitch Morsillo, Mike Philbin
2009 - Tafua, Garrett, Ejikke, Renfro, Lawrence, Bunner, Rodgers, Thad Turner, Luchsinger, Theo Scott, David White, Taylor Price
2010 - Chad Clemens, Jay Edwards, Ballard, Gatling, Goulet, McCrea, Posey, Donovan Fletcher, Boo Jackson, Marcellis Williamson, Steven Jackson, Dak Notestine, Ernie Hodge
2011 - Eric Benjamin, Kurt Meyers, Omar Leftwich, Donte Harden, Riley Dunlop, Paul Hershey, Lavon Brazill, Noah Keller, AJ Strum, Joe Flading
2012 - Bakari Bussey, Tyler Futrell, Ryan Clark, Alphonso Lewis, Jelani Woseley, Corey Hasting, Gerald Moore, Tremayne Scott, Vince Carlotta, Jordan Thompson, Eric Herman, Vince Carlotta, Neal Huynh, Matt Weller, Carl Jones, Skyler Allen
2013 - Nic Barber, Troy Hill, Jamil Shaw, Sam Johnson, Matt Waters, Mario Dovell, Ryan Boykin, Anthony Talbert, Xavier Hughes, Beau Blankenship, Ty Branz, John Prior, Keith Moore, Travis Carrie, Tyler Tettleton, Donte Foster, Ryan McGrath, Jon Lechner
2014 - Edmond, Atwell, Carpenter, McLeod, Cochran, Ingol, Kristoff, Kendric Smith, Tony Davis, AJ Grady, Mark Smith, Landon Smith, Crutcher
2015 - Russell, Powell, Lucas, Purdum, Patterson, McQueen, Jovon Johnson, Tautuaiki, Wells, Macer, Bass, Vick, Scipio, Everhart, Venham, Haser, Welter, Curtis
2016 - Watson, Laseak, Reid, Gibbons,Wood, Basham, Sebastian Smith, Sayles, Dyquan Stewart, Mangen, Blair Brown, Wm Johnson, Schany, Toran Davis (plus some jucos?)

Now, to me the three weakest classes are 2005, 2007, and 2014. I think 2006, 2008, 2009, and 2010 are all pretty close. I consider 2011-2012 to be slightly better than those, and 2013 slightly better yet, and and I think 2015-2016 will turn out to be similar to 2013 (or slightly better). If I assign arbitrary numerical values (hey, I can't help it, I'm a numbers kind of guy), i call it:
2005 = 15
2007, 2014 = 30
2006, 2008, 2009, 2010 = 45
2011, 2012 = 55
2013, 2015, 2016 = 60

Now, going year by year, using the formula of 1.5* senior class plus 1 times Junior class:
2005 (67.5) = should be weak, which they were
2006 (97.5) = much better, but not as good as they as actually were - this group overachieved
2007 (90) = worse, which they were
2008 (112.5) = this team underperformed, and lost a lot of close ones
2009 (112. 5) = unlike 2008, this team did more like it should have
2010 (122.5) = Should have been good - which they were, till they messed up against Kent
2011 (137.5) = Should have been the best yet, and was - sadly, messed up 2d half versus NIU
2012 (142.5) = Should have been as good or better than 2011 - and was - until it was wiped out with injuries
2013 (120) = sorry, but weak 2014 class hurts
2014 (105) = hate to say it, but....next year won't be the year (unless they are overachievers)
2015 (150) = if the pieces come together, this could be a very good team

As you work through this, you see just exactly how this happened - the recruiting hole in 2010 hurts. They were able to only partially fill it by adding some jucos/transfers (Edmond, Kendric Smith, McLeod). It's not that unusual, really. All programs have up and down years, unfortunately.

Note that at 120 they are still higher than the 2006 team, which was only 97.5, and the 2009 team, both of which won the MAC East. They could have still won it, but in my opinion, the 2006 and 2009 teams wanted it more. Thus, the 2013 team will go in my book as one that didn't accomplish all that they could have. 2014 "should" be down from this year, but who knows, maybe they will want it enough that they will go out and get it. 2015 "should" be a great team, but... they will still have to earn it.

Getting back to my main point, regarding whether the team has plateaued, i think there has been a temporary plateau of sorts, from 2009-2014, but that it is more of a stair-step pattern, continuing up, than a permanent top. For it to continue they need to continue to get better and better recruits, and importantly, to avoid bad recruiting years like 2010.

Last Edited: 11/16/2013 10:54:44 AM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

DesertDog
General User

Member Since: 12/27/2004
Post Count: 25

Status: Offline

RE: Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/16/2013 12:20:50 PM

Whoa. That is some pretty heavy math for a football bulletin board! Pretty detailed analysis.

The most encouraging thing I saw in all that analysis was the belief that the DL will be strong in the future. To get to the next level, Ohio needs to start having dominating defenses. You can't play great defense without great defensive lineman.

Perhaps next year will be a year like 2006 and senior leadership will prevail and find ways to win. Or perhaps some of the freshman will arrive onto the scene in grand fashion.

I do think the fact Ohio had no IPF hurt them recruiting wise. If you look around college football, it really is an arms race for facilities right now, so teams in non-AQ conferences really have a hard time competing. WIth the IPF complete, I expect Ohio to win a lot more of those recruiting battles against other MAC teams.

L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,494

Status: Offline

RE: Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/16/2013 3:12:00 PM

DesertDog wrote:

....
Perhaps next year will be a year like 2006 and senior leadership will prevail and find ways to win. Or perhaps some of the freshman will arrive onto the scene in grand fashion.

I do think the fact Ohio had no IPF hurt them recruiting wise. If you look around college football, it really is an arms race for facilities right now, so teams in non-AQ conferences really have a hard time competing. WIth the IPF complete, I expect Ohio to win a lot more of those recruiting battles against other MAC teams.

That's the key. All my mathematical mumbo jumbo does is to give you a rough idea how good or bad a team might be. In the end a team with heart and will to win can accomplish more than you expect, while teams lacking fight will disappoint. There is more to winning and losing than X's and O's, and play calling. There is the leadership and character of the team, and each team is different. A classic example was AE's leadership in 2006. He wasn't the most talented QB Ohio has had, but he had a desire to win, and an ability to lead that took Ohio to the MACC.

As for the IPF, we may be seeing that effect already. The last two years there has been a huge increase is early acceptances, indicating Ohio is more of a "first choice" and less of a "I'll settle for.." team.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

colobobcat66
General User

Member Since: 9/1/2006
Location: Watching the bobcats run outside my window., CO
Post Count: 4,546

Status: Offline

RE: Has Ohio plateaued?

Posted: 11/16/2013 7:41:02 PM

It is a complex thing we're talking about, but as I said elsewhere, I have lowered my expectations based on 9 years of results on the field.
I'll cheer and support the Bobcats, I'm just not buying us taking it to the top of the MAC. We have plateaued and may even be regressing based on this years results to date .

Last Edited: 11/16/2013 7:49:58 PM by colobobcat66

Showing Replies:	1 - 25 of 27 Posts
Jump to Page:	1 \| 2 Next >

View Other 'Ohio Football' Topics

There are 152 Active Visitors on BobcatAttack.com

151 Guests
1 Registered User:
	Victory

There are no other users looking at this page.