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Topic: The race to fill the bowl slots

Topic: The race to fill the bowl slots

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Pataskala
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The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 10/14/2013 9:29:46 PM

FINAL UPDATE (for those still interested): There are 79 bowl-eligible teams plus UTSA, but UTSA appears to no longer be considered to fill a slot. The "In Solid" column assumes that all bowl-eligible AQs will go to a bowl, regardless of record. San Jose St (6-6) is put in this column even though Colo St has 7 wins; both are 5-3 in the MWC and SJSU beat Colo St plus has the marquee win over Fresno. At this point, there are 68 teams that are "in solid," so there appear to be only two open bowl slots. Buffalo and WKU should get them. Bowl tie-ins could affect all this, as well as any AQ teams being overlooked. Asterisks denote that one BCS slot is included in the conference total. The five italicized teams are 6-6 AQ teams whose conference has more eligible teams than slots to fill; these teams are likely to be looking for a slot to fill. The Open Bowls are those that have the last pick from the conferences that don't have enough eligible teams to fill all the slots, except for the Poinsettia, which was to be filled by Army. The bowl in brackets might come open if the conference fills two BCS slots. The italicized teams could fill some of these slots.

Conference (Slots)	In Solid	In But Waiting			Open Bowls
Conference (Slots)	In Solid	8-win	7-win	6-win	Open Bowls
*American (6)**	(5) UCF, Louisville, Cincy, Houston, Rutgers				Beef O’Brady’s
*ACC (8)**	(11) FSU, Clemson, Duke, Miami(F), Va Tech, Ga Tech, BC, Maryland, Pitt, UNC, Syracuse
*Big 12 (7)**	(6) Baylor, Okla St, Okla, Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas St.				Pinstripe, [Texas]
*Big Ten (8)**	(7) MSU, OSU, Wis, Minn, Neb, Iowa, Mich				Pizza, [Heart of Dallas]
*Pac-12 (7)**	(9) Stanford, Arizona St, Oregon, UCLA, USC, Wash, Arizona, Ore St, Wash St
*SEC (10)**	(10) Auburn, Bama, Mizzou, SoCar, LSU, Texas A&M, Miss, Georgia, Vandy, Miss St				[Independence]
BSC At-Large (4)	///////////////////////////	////////	/////////	////////////	//////////////////////
AQ Total (50)	48	0	0	0	3-6
CUSA (6)	(6) Rice, Marshall, ECU, Tulane, N. Texas, MTSU			FAU
Indies (3)	(3) ND, BYU {Fight Hunger}, Navy {Armed Forces}				Poinsettia
MAC (3)	(3) NIU, BSU, BG	Buffalo	Toledo; Ohio	CMU
MWC (6)	(6) Fresno St, Boise, Utah St, San Diego St, UNLV, San Jose St		Colo St
Sun Belt (2)	(2) La-Laf, Ark St	WKU		Texas St; Troy; ULM; S. Bama
Non-AQ Total (20)	20	2	3	6	1
GRAND TOTAL (70)	68	2	3	6	4-7

Last Edited: 12/7/2013 11:56:57 PM by Pataskala

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

catfan28
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RE: The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 10/15/2013 1:04:53 AM

With less schools on probation, it's going to be even harder this year. I think 9 wins might be a must to get us feeling comfortable. 8 at a minimum.

Victory
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RE: The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 10/15/2013 11:14:21 AM

I think only 4 MAC teams will go in the end.

L.C.
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RE: The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 10/15/2013 11:34:44 AM

Bowl Games?

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Beat Michigan
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RE: The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 10/15/2013 1:07:41 PM

Pataskala wrote:

This may invite a visit from Coach Mora, but here's the latest on the race to fill the 70 bowl slots. After week 7, 11 teams are already in and another 71 have to win half or fewer of their remaining games to become bowl eligible. Asterisks denote that one BCS slot is included in the conference total. Italics denote transition teams that may become bowl eligible based on last year's criteria from the NCAA (i.e., they could be chosen if slots remain open after all other eligible D1A teams are chosen). The NCAA shows this year's transition teams to be App St, ODU, Ga Southern, Ga State and UTSA.

Conference (Slots)	Teams Already In	Teams ≥ .500	Teams Already Out
American (6*)	(1) Louisville	(4) Houston (5-0), UCF (4-1), Cincy (4-2), Rutgers (4-2)
ACC (8*)	(2) Clemson, Va Tech	(10) FSU (5-0), Miami(F) (5-0), Maryland (5-1), Duke (4-2), Pitt (3-2), Syracuse (3-3), BC (3-3), Wake (3-3), NC St (3-3), Ga Tech (3-3)
Big 12 (7*)	(1) Texas Tech	(6) Baylor (5-0), Okla (5-1), OK St (4-1), Texas (4-2), TCU (3-3), WVU (3-3)
Big Ten (8*)	(1) OSU	(9) MSU (5-1), Neb (5-1), Mich (5-1), Iowa (4-2), Minn (4-2), NW (4-2), Wis (4-2), Illinois (3-2), Ind (3-3)	Penn St
CUSA (6)		(5) Tulane (5-2), Marshall (4-2), ECU (4-2), Rice (4-2), N. Tex (3-3)
Indies (3)		(3) BYU (4-2), ND (4-2), Navy (3-2), ODU (4-2)
MAC (3)	(2) NIU, BSU	(4) BG (5-2), Buffalo (4-2), Ohio (4-2), Toledo (3-3)	WMU
MWC (6)		(7) Fresno St (5-0), UNLV (4-2), Wyoming (4-2), Boise (4-2), San Diego St (3-3), Nevada (3-3), San Jose St (3-3)
Pac-12 (7*)	(1) Oregon	(9) UCLA (5-0), Oregon St (5-1), Stanford (5-1), Wash (4-2), Ariz St (4-2), Utah (4-2), USC (4-2), Ariz (3-2), Wash St (4-3)
SEC (10*)	(3) Bama, Mizzou, LSU	(9) SC (5-1), Auburn (5-1), Tx A&M (5-1), Florida (4-2), Georgia (4-2), Tenn (3-3), Vandy (3-3), Miss (3-3), Miss St (3-3)
Sun Belt (2)		(5) WKU (4-2), Troy (4-3), La-Laf (3-3), Ark St (3-3), Texas St (3-3)
BSC At-Large (4)
TOTAL (70)	11	71 (+ODU)	2

I love this chart, You do know you HAVE opened the can of worms and we will now expect this to be updated everyweek by Saturday at midnight Pacific time..

Nice job. I love it..

Victory
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RE: The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 10/15/2013 1:28:05 PM

More information on who is likely to be eligible can be found on sites like this where the odds of winning each future game are considered. TeamRankings specifically would say 76 eligible teams when you add the percents up.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/projections/standings/

Casper71
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RE: The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 10/15/2013 2:00:23 PM

USATODAY today has us on the outside looking in with 5 MAC schools bowling...Balls, BG, Buff, Toledo and NIU. Looks like we just need to beat Buff and BG on the road and take care of business everywhere else in the East to go bowling again. What are the odds of that? More or LESS than 50-50?

OhioCatFan
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RE: The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 10/15/2013 2:08:45 PM

Prediction: We beat both Beefs and Ziggy-Zoombas IF we don't have any of our punts blocked or otherwise screwed up (safeties in the end zone) and don't drop any of their punts. I seriously doubt that we'll come out flat in either of these games. GO OHIO!

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

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Pataskala
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RE: The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 10/15/2013 2:09:05 PM

Chris_PHS89 wrote:

I love this chart, You do know you HAVE opened the can of worms and we will now expect this to be updated everyweek by Saturday at midnight Pacific time..

Nice job. I love it..

I'm glad you appreciate it. Last season I usually had it updated by noon ET Sunday.

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

Pataskala
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RE: The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 10/15/2013 10:33:58 PM

I didn't put teams that are one game under .500 on the chart because there are so few of them, about one per conference. But one that will likely show up this week and ultimately get bowl eligible is Army. They're 3-4 and the remainder of their schedule is pretty soft: @ Temps (0-6); @ AFA (1-6); home to WKU (4-2); @ Hawaii (0-6); & vs. Navy (3-2). They could win at least three of those last five and go to the Poinsettia Bowl.

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

OhioCatFan
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RE: The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 10/15/2013 10:53:38 PM

Temps at 0-6. Time to make MH65, or was it 56, the head coach and change the mascot to the boa.

Beat Michigan
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RE: The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 10/18/2013 3:08:22 PM

I think Old Dominion and possibly Georgia State, South Alabama and UTSA are not eligible because of transitioning years from FCS to FBS..

Anyone know for sure?

Pataskala
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RE: The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 10/18/2013 3:17:10 PM

Chris_PHS89 wrote:

I think Old Dominion and possibly Georgia State, South Alabama and UTSA are not eligible because of transitioning years from FCS to FBS..

Anyone know for sure?

Last year when it looked like there wouldn't be enough teams with 6-6 records or better to fill the bowl slots, the NCAA came up with a contingency plan that included allowing transition teams with at least a 6-6 record to go to a bowl (see this). They could go only if there were no other 1A teams with at least 6 regular season wins available. I haven't seen anything withdrawing this plan for this season, and ESPN (my key source for this sort of thing) doesn't list any of the transition teams as ineligible, even though they've noted Penn St as such all season.

Last Edited: 10/18/2013 3:18:51 PM by Pataskala

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

TWT
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RE: The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 10/20/2013 6:30:22 PM

OhioCatFan wrote:

Buffalo for the team is going to be a super bowl for the Cats. The team knows the season is toast without a win there. Buffalo is not used to playing in a championship type atmosphere and is beatable. Bowling Green is a legitimate MAC Championship contender with a Top 10 defense. On paper they have a better team and its going to be an uphill climb.

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Casper71
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RE: The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 10/22/2013 1:36:27 PM

USATODAY today has 5 MAC teams in Bowls and OHIO is not, as of now, one of them!

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2013/10/22/bowl-projections-bcs-title-game-oregon-alabama-major-changes/3149131/

We better beat BG and/or Buffs or we are out for sure even at 8-4!

mf279801
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RE: The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 10/22/2013 1:39:03 PM

Casper71 wrote:

While I think we had better (and should) beat BG and UB, we are not "out for sure even at 8-4". This is just hyperbole and/or scaremongering.

bobcat28
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RE: The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 10/27/2013 3:37:54 PM

We are setting up a scenario where there could be four 8-4 teams in the mac. Bowl selection could come down to conference record and quality ooc wins.

Victory
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RE: The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 10/27/2013 4:38:05 PM

1	Central FL	100.0%
2	Louisville	100.0%
3	Houston	100.0%
4	Florida St	100.0%
5	Clemson	100.0%
6	Miami (FL)	100.0%
7	VA Tech	100.0%
8	GA Tech	100.0%
9	Duke	100.0%
10	Baylor	100.0%
11	Oklahoma St	100.0%
12	Oklahoma	100.0%
13	Texas Tech	100.0%
14	Ohio State	100.0%
15	Wisconsin	100.0%
16	Michigan St	100.0%
17	Michigan	100.0%
18	Minnesota	100.0%
19	E Carolina	100.0%
20	Rice	100.0%
21	Tulane	100.0%
22	Notre Dame	100.0%
23	BYU	100.0%
24	Buffalo	100.0%
25	Ohio	100.0%
26	Ball State	100.0%
27	N Illinois	100.0%
28	Boise State	100.0%
29	Fresno St	100.0%
30	Oregon	100.0%
31	Stanford	100.0%
32	Oregon St	100.0%
33	Missouri	100.0%
34	S Carolina	100.0%
35	Alabama	100.0%
36	Auburn	100.0%
37	LSU	100.0%
38	Texas A&M	100.0%
39	LA Lafayette	100.0%
40	Bowling Grn	99.9%
41	Toledo	99.9%
42	Marshall	99.8%
43	North Texas	99.8%
44	Utah State	99.8%
45	Mississippi	99.8%
46	Texas	99.7%
47	Washington	99.7%
48	UCLA	99.7%
49	Arizona St	99.6%
50	Arizona	98.9%
51	Nebraska	97.9%
52	Middle Tenn	97.9%
53	Georgia	97.3%
54	Cincinnati	96.6%
55	Iowa	95.8%
56	Florida	93.9%
57	USC	93.6%
58	Maryland	92.7%
59	Navy	92.4%
60	Texas State	92.3%
61	Rutgers	91.3%
62	Troy	89.2%
63	W Kentucky	88.1%
64	UNLV	82.1%
65	San Jose St	80.7%
66	Kansas St	78.7%
67	Utah	72.9%
68	Vanderbilt	71.8%
69	Arkansas St	67.6%
70	Pittsburgh	59.2%
71	Tennessee	57.8%
72	S Alabama	57.3%
73	Boston Col	56.9%
74	Indiana	55.1%
75	Northwestern	55.0%
76	Miss State	51.4%
77	Colorado St	51.1%
78	N Carolina	50.3%
79	San Diego St	47.5%
80	Fla Atlantic	47.2%
81	LA Monroe	37.5%
82	Syracuse	34.6%
83	Central Mich	29.6%
84	NC State	28.9%
85	Wake Forest	28.3%
86	Wyoming	28.1%
87	TX-San Ant	28.0%
88	TX Christian	23.1%
89	Wash State	21.1%
90	S Methodist	19.8%
91	Illinois	17.7%
92	Army	17.5%
93	W Virginia	17.2%
94	Memphis	14.9%
95	LA Tech	14.0%
96	Tulsa	11.7%
97	Nevada	5.5%
98	Colorado	1.5%
99	UAB	1.3%
100	New Mexico	1.1%
101	Arkansas	0.8%
102	S Florida	0.5%
103	Kentucky	0.3%
104	Virginia	0.2%
105	Iowa State	0.2%
106	Kansas	0.2%
107	Temple	0.0%
108	Connecticut	0.0%
109	Penn State	0.0%
110	Purdue	0.0%
111	Florida Intl	0.0%
112	S Mississippi	0.0%
113	TX El Paso	0.0%
114	Idaho	0.0%
115	N Mex State	0.0%
116	Kent State	0.0%
117	Akron	0.0%
118	U Mass	0.0%
119	Miami (OH)	0.0%
120	W Michigan	0.0%
121	E Michigan	0.0%
122	Air Force	0.0%
123	Hawaii	0.0%
124	California	0.0%
125	Georgia State	0.0%
		7641.8%

So according to teamrankings 76 is still the mean number.

Teams at >85% - 63
Teams 50%-85% - 15
Teams 15%-50 - 15
Teams <15% - 32

Given the fact that the MWC and CUSA still have bowl tie-ins based on the strength that they were before they got picked over they may have enough existing contracts to cover their eligible teams. Nearly all of the teams eligible that will get left home will be MAC and Sunbelt teams. If there are 76 or 77 eligible teams then I think that its is a very good bet that we need to win 9 games.

Last Edited: 10/27/2013 4:42:56 PM by Victory

Casper71
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RE: The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 11/3/2013 1:06:07 AM

I'd say Toledo and NIU took care of business today. Still say we MUST beat either Buffs or BeeGees and take care of Kent and UMASS that both lost today to get to a Bowl and 9-3.

colobobcat66
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RE: The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 11/3/2013 11:18:17 AM

Casper71 wrote:

I'd say Toledo and NIU took care of business today. Still say we MUST beat either Buffs or BeeGees and take care of Kent and UMASS that both lost today to get to a Bowl and 9-3.

and I don't think that scenario would guarantee us a bowl bid as it more depends on teams outside the MAC since it only has 3 primary bowl tie ins.

anorris
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RE: The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 11/3/2013 12:02:08 PM

Via twitter, Army agreement is as you state, 6 wins before Army-Navy game. So they're out, and the Poinsettia backup for them is the MAC, giving us four guaranteed slots now.

colobobcat66
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RE: The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 11/3/2013 12:47:31 PM

anorris wrote:

Via twitter, Army agreement is as you state, 6 wins before Army-Navy game. So they're out, and the Poinsettia backup for them is the MAC, giving us four guaranteed slots now.

do you or anybody have a list of all the back-up or secondary spots for the MAC?

anorris
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RE: The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 11/3/2013 12:57:55 PM

Can't vouch for every piece of accuracy, but everything I checked here checks out.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_bids_to_college_bo...

Victory
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RE: The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 11/3/2013 1:23:45 PM

We are still looking at around six eligible teams staying home as the most likely per teamrankings.com.

Teams >85% 66

Teams 50% to 85% 11

Teams 15%-50% 10

Teams <15% 38

Pataskala
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RE: The race to fill the bowl slots

Posted: 11/3/2013 2:13:34 PM

anorris wrote:

Via twitter, Army agreement is as you state, 6 wins before Army-Navy game. So they're out, and the Poinsettia backup for them is the MAC, giving us four guaranteed slots now.

That puts Navy on a bit of a spot, too. They're 4-4 with home games vs Hawaii (should be easy) and South Alabama (not so easy) plus San Jose St on the road (not easy). If they don't win two of the next three their spot in the Armed Forces Bowl in Dallas (Ft Worth?) opens up.

Also I noticed this morning that ESPN has ODU not eligible. I've always been suspect about their eligibility since they play 8 games vs 1AA schools; they haven't beaten a 1A school this season I'm moving them to out. It doesn't affect our chances because they would be in line after all other 6+-win teams anyway.

Last Edited: 11/3/2013 2:16:19 PM by Pataskala

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

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