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L.C.
General User
Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,482
Status: Offline
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| Losses from 2014 |
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Posted: 3/12/2015 8:06:54 PM |
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By far the biggest determinant of whether a team improves from one year to the next, or gets worse, is the players lost, and the players returning. It's easy to use phrases like "next man up", but of course, no one really believes that. When great players are lost, or large numbers of key players are lost, a team takes a step back, and that is equally true whether you are talking a top team, or a bottom team.
We see it clearly at the top all the time, when a National Championship team loses a bunch of players, and drops well down the rankings the following year, but seeing it at the bottom is often more murky. In an unusually distinct example of it working at the bottom, consider 1982 and Kansas State, under Jim Dickey. After going 3-8 two year running, he did something crazy in 1981, and redshirted all of his starters that he could. The result was a 2-9 season, but then with not one, but two years worth of starters returning, in 1982 he went 6-5-1, and went to the Independence Bowl. As you might expect, it was a one year wonder, and hit with heavy losses after the 1982 season, they were right back at 3-8 in 1983.
Ohio had heavy losses after 2006, losing many key players from the 2002 recruiting class, and therefore 2007 and 2008 were weaker years. Then they once again had heavy losses in 2012 and 2013, losing all those players from the strong 2007-8 recruiting classes. As a result, we knew going in that 2014 would be a rebuilding year, which was why our preseason picks last fall were much more muted than in prior years. A lot of young players played last year, and I would say even more than we expected, meaning that it was even more of a rebuilding year than we expected. There were an unexpectedly high number of true Freshmen (Nelson, OUellette, McCray, Walker, Lowery, Brunson, Pruehs, Brunis, and White), and a lot of Redshirt Freshmen (Poling, Porter, Cope, Dorian Brown, Quallen, Aloese, Morgan, Alexander, Smart, Moore, and Dougherty). [Keep your eye on this group as they progress through the system, as they are going to be good. There will not be another rebuilding year until after they are gone.]
At the other extreme, 19 players are gone from the program, but of those, only a handful were key contributors. Of the players that are gone, the ones that played the biggest role last year were Chase Cochran, Thad Ingol, Josh Kristoff, Miles Chapman, Landon Smith, Camerson McLeod, Kendric Smith, and Antwan Crutcher. Aaron Bradley, Tim Edmond, and Tony Davis also were contributors.
If you look at the major contributors on a position basis, you find:
DE - While Smith is gone, the defense end position will still be strong with 4 of the top five returning (Basham, Laseak, Sayles, and Smart), and they will have a year more experience, be more mature, and will be stronger, so despite the loss of Smith, DE should be significantly improved from last year as the other four improve.
DT/NG - The inside is hit by heavy losses, including both starters. Crutcher, McLeod, and Davis are gone, and only Tautuaiki and Purdum return from the top 5, though Aloese and Porter both played some. How strong the defensive line is depends on how much the four that return can improve year over year. The fact that Ohio did not seek a Juco for DT indicates that they have confidence in these four.
S - Safety loses a couple long time starters, Ingol and Kristoff. The return of Carpenter, Quallen, and Scipio, all of whom missed most or all of last year due to injury should offset that. There are also some very good recruits at Safety who will arrive in the fall. On the whole Safety should be as strong or stronger than last year.
WR - Three wide receivers were lost, Chase Cochran, Landon Smith and Aaron Bradley. A host of other players return, such as Sebastian Smith, Jordan Reid, Brendon Cope, Robbie Walker, and Herman Brunis, plus others we haven't seen yet, like Cameron Wilson. I have no concern at all about WR.
As for the other positions, such as K, P, CB, LB, OL, TE, RB, and QB, all of them return all the most significant contributors from last year, and thus all should be significantly improved year over year.
In my opinion, the only position that is even questionable for fall is DT, and I like the talent that is there. In 2015 DT will no doubt be a small step down from 2014, but not too big a step, and the entire rest of the team should be significantly stronger than last year. The net result should be a season that is much better than last year, and hopefully it will be a good enough season to bring back some of the fans that have left the fold.
Last Edited: 3/13/2015 2:11:47 AM by L.C.
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
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