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Topic: MAC vs the Snobs

Topic: MAC vs the Snobs

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Pataskala
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MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/15/2015 5:45:23 PM

Here are this season's MAC games vs. the Snob Conferences:

Akron at Oklahoma (9/5)
Pitt at Akron (9/12)
Ball State at Texas A&M (9/12)
Ball State at Northwestern (9/26)
Bowling Green at Tennessee (9/5)
Bowling Green at Maryland (9/12)
Bowling Green at Purdue (9/26)
Buffalo at Penn State (9/12)
Oklahoma State at Central Michigan (9/3)
Central Michigan at Syracuse (9/19)
Central Michigan at Michigan State (9/26)
Eastern Michigan at LSU (10/3)
Kent State at Illinois (9/5)
Kent State at Minnesota (9/19)
UMass at Colorado (9/12)
UMass at Notre Dame (9/26)
Fiami at Wisconsin (9/12)
NIU at Ohio State (9/19)
NIU at Boston College (9/26)
Ohio at Minnesota (9/26)
Toledo at Arkansas (9/12)
Iowa State at Toledo (9/19)
Michigan State at Western Michigan (9/4)
Western Michigan at Ohio State (9/26)

[Removed Cincy-Fiami]

Last Edited: 3/16/2015 8:10:40 PM by Pataskala

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Alan Swank
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RE: MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/15/2015 6:08:26 PM

Looks like we have the most winnable game.

Last Edited: 3/15/2015 6:08:44 PM by Alan Swank

colobobcat66
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RE: MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/15/2015 6:22:06 PM

Pataskala wrote:

Here are this season's MAC games vs. the Snob Conferences:

Akron at Oklahoma (9/5)
Pitt at Akron (9/12)
Ball State at Texas A&M (9/12)
Ball State at Northwestern (9/26) winnable?
Bowling Green at Tennessee (9/5)
Bowling Green at Maryland (9/12)
Bowling Green at Purdue (9/26)
Buffalo at Penn State (9/12)
Central Michigan at Syracuse (9/19) winnable?
Central Michigan at Michigan State (9/26)
Eastern Michigan at LSU (10/3)
Kent State at Illinois (9/5)
Kent State at Minnesota (9/19)
UMass at Colorado (9/12)
UMass at Notre Dame (9/26)
Miami at Wisconsin (9/12)
Cincinnati at Miami (9/19)
NIU at Boston College (9/26) winnable?
Ohio at Minnesota (9/26) winnable?
Toledo at Arkansas (9/12)
Iowa State at Toledo (9/19)
Michigan State at Western Michigan (9/4)
Western Michigan at Ohio State (9/26)

my choices above.

L.C.
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RE: MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/15/2015 7:26:45 PM

colobobcat66 wrote:

Akron at Oklahoma (9/5)
Pitt at Akron (9/12)<---------Akron will be worse this year, but it's at home
Ball State at Texas A&M (9/12)
Ball State at Northwestern (9/26) winnable?
Bowling Green at Tennessee (9/5)
Bowling Green at Maryland (9/12)<------- Winnable?
Bowling Green at Purdue (9/26)<------------You must have missed this one
Buffalo at Penn State (9/12)
Central Michigan at Syracuse (9/19) winnable?
Central Michigan at Michigan State (9/26)
Eastern Michigan at LSU (10/3)
Kent State at Illinois (9/5)
Kent State at Minnesota (9/19)
UMass at Colorado (9/12)
UMass at Notre Dame (9/26)
Miami at Wisconsin (9/12)
Cincinnati at Miami (9/19)<-----------Miami sucks, but it's at home
NIU at Boston College (9/26) winnable?
Ohio at Minnesota (9/26) winnable?
Toledo at Arkansas (9/12)
Iowa State at Toledo (9/19)
Michigan State at Western Michigan (9/4)
Western Michigan at Ohio State (9/26)
my choices above.

I added four more. BG at Purdue should be a lock for the MAC.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Pataskala
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RE: MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/15/2015 8:33:07 PM

Iowa St-Toledo and UMass-Colo are real possibilities. MSU-WMU might be really close, given that it's the first week of the season, WMU's at home and they'll be targeting MSU all spring and summer.

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TheGreatLarryMoe
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RE: MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/16/2015 12:20:33 AM

Cincy @ Fiami is a good OOC rivalry game, but I don't consider the American to be one of the snob conferencs. They are full of "mid-majors" and schools who have struggled to find a good conference to call home. Still a good list though. I see many winnable games. It is nice to see a good OOC schedule all around.

OhioBobcat
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RE: MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/16/2015 12:30:47 AM

Alan Swank wrote:

Looks like we have the most winnable game.

Pretty much always the case with Ohio's non-conference schedules anymore. The entire program is overdue for a visit to the dentist with the cupcake schedules Ohio has been choming on compared to our peers. Going 3-1 in essentially our expectation, norm and default when it comes to these games. I get why we do it, but it sure would be nice to put some big boy pants on every now and again and go out and schedule a real non-conference slate every once in awhile these days. Just sayin'.

colobobcat66
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RE: MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/16/2015 9:53:23 AM

OhioBobcat wrote:

Alan Swank wrote:

Looks like we have the most winnable game.

The funny thing is that when Ohio scheduled Minnesota they were pretty bad, they've gotten better so it's not likely at all that we win this. I was just being supportive of Ohio, I think it pretty unlikely that we win that game.

OhioCatFan
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RE: MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/16/2015 10:23:27 AM

colobobcat66 wrote:

. . . The funny thing is that when Ohio scheduled Minnesota they were pretty bad, they've gotten better so it's not likely at all that we win this. I was just being supportive of Ohio, I think it pretty unlikely that we win that game.

I have a feeling that this could be our next Penn State-like game. By the fourth game of the year OHIO should be hitting on all cylinders.

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Pataskala
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RE: MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/16/2015 11:04:15 AM

TheGreatLarryMoe wrote:

You're right. My mistake. Just thinking ahead to the day when Cincy moves to B12.

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We will get by.
We will survive.

OhioCatFan
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RE: MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/16/2015 11:12:42 AM

I classify the American as "Semi Snob."

Pataskala
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RE: MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/16/2015 1:28:23 PM

Snob wannabe. They might make it someday but they'll really need to upgrade some of their programs -- especially Tulane, Tulsa and SMU. I can see Cincy and UConn being plucked by other conferences, and if that happens it'll stay G5 forever.

We will get by.
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We will get by.
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L.C.
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RE: MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/16/2015 2:13:18 PM

I thought about it some more, and revised it a little. We all missed the most likely MAC win, Iowa State at Toledo:

Likely MAC Wins:
Iowa State at Toledo (9/19) <---- Most likely MAC win
Bowling Green at Purdue (9/26)

Possible wins:
UMass at Colorado (9/12)
Bowling Green at Maryland (9/12)
Ball State at Northwestern (9/26)
Oklahoma State At CMU (9/5) <------------This game wasn't on the original list
Central Michigan at Syracuse (9/19)
Kent State at Illinois (9/5)

Unlikely but possible:
Bowling Green vs Tennessee at neutral site (9/5)
Ohio at Minnesota (9/26)
[Cincinnati at Miami (9/19)] <----- Wannabe Snob game
Pitt at Akron (9/12)
NIU at Boston College (9/26)

Very Unlikely
Michigan State at Western Michigan (9/4)
UMass at Notre Dame (9/26)
Ball State at Texas A&M (9/12)
Buffalo at Penn State (9/12)
Kent State at Minnesota (9/19)

Forget it
Toledo at Arkansas (9/12)
Western Michigan at Ohio State (9/26)
Akron at Oklahoma (9/5)
Miami at Wisconsin (9/12)
Central Michigan at Michigan State (9/26)
NIU @ Ohio State (9/19) <-----This game wasn't on the original list

Oh the Humanity
Eastern Michigan at LSU (10/3)

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

OhioCatFan
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RE: MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/16/2015 3:58:35 PM

I think L.C. has done a very good job of categorizing the Snob games as to the objective likelihood of a MAC victory. I'll go out on a non-objective, seat-of-the-pants limb and predict that one game from the Very Unlikely or Forget It categories turns out to be a big upset. I won't predict which one. I just have a feeling that this may be a breakout year for the MAC. I'm sure The Optimist would agree with me. I will go out on a further limb and say it won't be EMU vs. LSU.

Last Edited: 3/16/2015 3:59:55 PM by OhioCatFan

OU_Country
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RE: MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/17/2015 4:46:08 PM

I'd consider Western's game vs MSU a win, just because they got them to play a game in their stadium. They'll probably get crushed on the field.

GoCats105
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RE: MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/18/2015 8:43:52 AM

OU_Country wrote:

I'd consider Western's game vs MSU a win, just because they got them to play a game in their stadium. They'll probably get crushed on the field.

I don't know. MSU could have a little bit of a look-ahead to next week approach with Oregon on tabs the next week. Coach Fleck gets all summer to prepare for Connor Cook and whatever the new DC has to throw at them. Remember, this is MSU's first game without Narduzzi. Assignments, personnel and defensive fronts might not change, but the style of coaching and tendencies will be an adjustment no matter who it is. Especially since Narduzzi was such a great coach for them for so long.

The probability is still in MSU's favor, but I wouldn't be completely shocked if WMU pulled it off.

colobobcat66
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RE: MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/18/2015 10:18:58 AM

After reading the article about BG today, I would think that their defense is going to be a big issue when they play the big boys. We put up about 500+ yards against them last year as I recall. They could really be bad on defense unless I'm missing something. Their offense should be great however.

Bcat2
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RE: MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/18/2015 11:54:15 AM

colobobcat66 wrote:

coloradobobcat66

Could you provide a link to the article please?

Thanks,

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colobobcat66
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RE: MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/18/2015 12:31:44 PM

Bcat2 wrote:

colobobcat66 wrote:

coloradobobcat66

Could you provide a link to the article please?

Thanks,

It's in the sidebar today. So hope that works for you.

Bcat2
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RE: MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/18/2015 1:04:40 PM

colobobcat66 wrote:

Bcat2 wrote:

colobobcat66 wrote:

coloradobobcat66

Could you provide a link to the article please?

Thanks,

It's in the sidebar today. So hope that works for you.

Not really. Can you ID the source?

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L.C.
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RE: MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/18/2015 1:26:17 PM

colobobcat66 wrote:

Note that they replaced the defensive coordinator this year, and that may address some problems. The BG defense that was 2d to last in the MAC last year (giving up 493 yards/game and 33.5 points/game) was made up of mostly the same players that led the MAC in defense in 2013 (321 yards/game and 15.9 points/game). Yes, part of the drop was because of the speed they ran their offense, which meant that the defense was on the field for 1157 plays in 2014 compared to 890 in 2013, but that wasn't all of it. The yards given up per play jumped from 5.1 (best in the MAC) to 6.0 (2d worst).

Bcat2 wrote:

Could you provide a link to the article please?

http://tinyurl.com/oa84epy

newslinks are found in the sidebar on the home page
http://www.bobcatattack.com
(I don't usually enter at the home page, either)

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colobobcat66
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RE: MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/18/2015 2:17:46 PM

L.C. wrote:

colobobcat66 wrote:

Bcat2 wrote:

Could you provide a link to the article please?

http://tinyurl.com/oa84epy

newslinks are found in the sidebar on the home page
http://www.bobcatattack.com
(I don't usually enter at the home page, either)

So their old DC from 2 years ago left with the HC I presume. Anyway, if you give up 6 yards a play, you're going to stay on the field a lot. That's pretty bad, hope they're new DC falls on his face too.

L.C.
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RE: MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/18/2015 3:45:14 PM

Indeed. I was not expecting BG's defense to go from #1 to #12 in the MAC last year, but it's fine with me if it stays there.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Monroe Slavin
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RE: MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/20/2015 11:18:21 AM

Please try to understand the criteria/results that matter.

BG's defense was #2 in the MAC by the only measurement that matters. They finished 2nd in the MAC title game.

This is the BG which brings back this year (after missing essentially all of last year) their qb who's probably the best player in the conference.

The posts about only losses by 25 points or more are significant and about how this used to be a more pleasant board before people started posting not-100%-positive posts--really?

Taking about 14 seconds of spring practice video against our own guys and extrapolating from that--really?

How about this stat/analysis. Let's say that we were the worst team in college football before Solich arrived. Please tell me what we were ranked at end of season for each of his years. Then average that--what's the number?

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L.C.
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RE: MAC vs the Snobs

Posted: 3/20/2015 1:22:46 PM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

..The posts about only losses by 25 points or more are significant ...

No, I never said that losses by 25 points or more are the only ones that are significant. I didn't address the meaning of the close losses at all, which is a totally different subject, and one we can discuss separately, if you like.

What I did say was that teams should rarely, if ever, lose by 25 or more, at least, not unless they are playing an unusually good team. When a team loses by 25 or more consistently, it is an indication of a problem. When I showed that the 2013 team lost not one, but four games by more than 25, only one of which was to a "very good team", I was using data to confirm your hypothesis that there was something very wrong in 2013. Instead of seeing my data as a confirmation of your point of view, which is what it was, you inexplicably took it as an attack on your view.

2013 by all measures had a lot of returning talent, and they should have been a good team. Somehow, instead of being good, they managed to lose repeatedly by 25 or more. By the same measures, 2014 had very little returning talent, losing the QB (Tettleton), RBs (Blankenship, Boykin), both TEs (Hill, Talbert), the three starting WR (Foster, Waters, Dovell) and most of the OL (Prior, Johnson, McGrath, Lechner, plus Wood due to injury), plus some key defenders (Branz and Barber from the DL, K. Moore and Russell at LB, and Carrie, Shaw, Hughes, and Carpenter due to injury from the DBs). The 2014 team played about 20 Freshmen (True+Redshirt). There was no reason to expect it to be good. Yet, the 2014 team won nearly the same number of games as the 2013 team. Even more significantly, they played competitively against both teams in the MAC Championship. For the level of experience that they had, I thought that the 2014 team played well last year, though you are free to disagree.

2015 will not be a rebuilding year. Virtually everyone is back. Unlike last year, there is no reason that the 2015 team should not be every bit as good as the 2009-2011 teams. Will they win the MAC? I don't know, but they have as good a chance as anyone. The schedule isn't the best, with BG on the road, and the three teams that I believe will be the best in the West this year, WMU, NIU, and Ball State. (Toledo could be in the top three as well, but I think they will be 4th, with CMU-EMU bringing up the rear). Even with the tough schedule, I don't rule out a MAC Championship. I expect all four of the above games (WMU, NIU, Ball State, and BG) to be decided by less than a TD, and how these four games shake out will determine where Ohio fits in the final pecking order. (Here is where we can discuss the meaning of winning or not winning the close ones).

Monroe Slavin wrote:

..and about how this used to be a more pleasant board before people started posting not-100%-positive posts--really?...

I'm not sure who this is directed at, but I don't expect anyone to be 100% positive. The converse of that, however, is that I don't expect anyone to be 100% negative, either.

As for me, not 100% positive, but I admit that I'm an optimist, and I've always been an optimist. If you hate optimism, there isn't much I can do about that. I wasn't happy about what happened in 2013, and I don't think anyone was. I know that applied to people inside the program as well as to us, as fans. I know the players weren't happy - they went to Solich looking for changes. I know Solich wasn't happy, and you could see it in his face and comments, and in the changes he made. He brought in the Navy Seals training guy, and he brought in another group, including a member of this board, to consult on new ideas to improve team unity.

As an optimist, it isn't hard for me to see progress. I saw a team that should have been good go 7-6, and then I saw a team that should have been bad go 6-6. I saw a team that, in a rebuilding year, still managed to win enough games to be bowl eligible, and manage to stay competitive in most of the other games, even though they had key injuries to Vick and AJ. I see a team for this fall that returns all it's key talent, a team that matches in experience and talent levels the teams of 2009-2011.

Monroe, I don't expect that we'll ever completely agree, but I do expect that by the end of the season, you and I will be closer to agreement. If the 2015 team only wins 6, then it will be a team, that like 2013 underperforms my expectations. If they win 9-10, as I expect, then they will exceed your expectations. If they win more, or a MACC, everyone will be happy....at least until 2016. ;)

Last Edited: 3/20/2015 1:27:52 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

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