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Topic: 5Dimes' odds on each team's win total

Topic: 5Dimes' odds on each team's win total

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Pataskala
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5Dimes' odds on each team's win total

Posted: 5/28/2015 12:24:09 PM

They have Ohio with 5. That's a bit low; we should get 7 to 9, possibly more if the ball bounces our way. Nobody in the MAC with more than 8.5. T'erd with 10 is a stretch; Minn at 5.5 is a bit low; Idaho's 3.5 is about right, maybe a little high. http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/eye-on-college-f...

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Pennsylvaniacat
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RE: 5Dimes' odds on each team's win total

Posted: 5/28/2015 12:51:16 PM

I would definitely take the over.

Last Edited: 5/28/2015 12:51:51 PM by Pennsylvaniacat

L.C.
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RE: 5Dimes' odds on each team's win total

Posted: 5/28/2015 2:03:38 PM

Teamrankings is another site that comes out with those kinds of numbers, though they don't have 2015 posted yet. Here's a link to their site:
http://tinyurl.com/qfwa8ob

I use a similar methodology to Teamrankings, and my numbers may change slightly before the season begins, but are now:
Toledo 7.9
WMU 7.4
U.Mass 7.0
Ohio 6.9
BG 6.9
Ball State 6.9
NIU 6.8
Buffalo 5.0
Akron 4.8
Kent St 3.9
CMU 3.5
Miami 3.4
EMU .7

For most of the West schools my numbers are close to 5Dimes, though I'm a little more pessimistic on NIU than they are. I have no quarrels with their numbers, though, as it's hard to bet against NIU.

For the East, 5Dimes has a rather different world view. They see Akron dominating, followed by Buffalo. To me, that's craziness. Yes, BG could easily lose all four of their OOC games, but still, they won the east last year, and have 20 starters back, plus they get their QB back from 2013. Meanwhile Buffalo and Akron weren't that good last year, and have 10 and 11 starter back respectively.

By the way, when it comes to preseason picks, no one can touch Phil Steele. Here's how it looks over the last 5 years:
http://preseason.stassen.com/prediction-accuracy/2015-5yr...

and here is last year on a conference by conference basis:
http://preseason.stassen.com/prediction-accuracy/2014.html

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

C Money
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RE: 5Dimes' odds on each team's win total

Posted: 5/28/2015 3:09:34 PM

If we only win 5 games this season........hoooooooooo boy, there are going to be some torches and pitchforks coming out.

Minny lost their 2 best players, so I would not be surprised to see them regress somewhat. But yeah, from a New Years Day bowl to 5.5 wins seems like a bit much.

TheBobcatBandit
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RE: 5Dimes' odds on each team's win total

Posted: 5/28/2015 5:56:56 PM

Even if we get only 7 wins I think there will be some torches out. With the starters we have returning we should get 8/9 wins and hopefully a chance at the MAC Title.

L.C.
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RE: 5Dimes' odds on each team's win total

Posted: 5/28/2015 6:01:32 PM

For Ohio this season promises to be one that could go either way. I count three likely wins in the home games against Kent and Miami, and the road game at Idaho, and I count one likely losses at Minnesota. The other 8 games could go either way. Win them all and they end up 11-1. Lose them all and they end up 3-9. Split them and they end up 7-5, which is about where my computer puts them.

Will 2015 be a battling team like the 2006 team, a team that manages to win all the close ones? I'm hoping so.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Doc Bobcat
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RE: 5Dimes' odds on each team's win total

Posted: 5/28/2015 8:34:41 PM

Home Depot has torches on sale.....pitchforks kinda expensive....machetes are a reasonable price.

RSBobcat
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RE: 5Dimes' odds on each team's win total

Posted: 5/28/2015 10:05:51 PM

Doc Bobcat wrote:

Home Depot has torches on sale.....pitchforks kinda expensive....machetes are a reasonable price.

I'm hedging my bets - getting a pitchfork and a bottle of Syrah (pairs nicely with grilled crow)

RS Bobcat

Paul Graham
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RE: 5Dimes' odds on each team's win total

Posted: 5/29/2015 12:52:45 AM

Like almost all recent schedules for us, getting to 4 or 5 wins is nearly meaningless...assuming we would beat the 4 or 5 teams that one would expect.

If we beat Idaho, Southeastern Louisiana (good one Schaus), Miami, Kent and Akron or Buffalo, what can you really say about us? I guess you could say that we aren't one of the bottom 20 or so teams in college football. So if that gets you stoked, there ya go.

Now, WMU, NIU, Marshall, Minnesota, BSU and BG....thats where the action is. If we pull off one or two of those and win the games we should, then its a good season. If we get three...oh boy thats a great year. And more than three?! Then Frank calls it quits and goes out on top.

Last Edited: 5/29/2015 12:53:33 AM by Paul Graham

L.C.
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RE: 5Dimes' odds on each team's win total

Posted: 5/29/2015 2:22:00 PM

Paul Graham wrote:

Now, WMU, NIU, Marshall, Minnesota, BSU and BG....thats where the action is. If ....

Whether you win or lose the close games makes a huge difference in the final result, and in how the fans feel about a particular team. I went back and looked at the last decade in those terms. Here are the year by year records in games decided by 7 or less points:

2005 2-0
2006 3-0
2007 1-2
2008 2-3
2009 5-1
2010 1-2
2011 5-3
2012 4-1
2013 2-1
2014 3-1

I have fond memories of the 2006 and 2009 teams as battling teams that never quit and scrapped to victories, and I thought last year's team was pretty scrappy, too.

Overall, Solich has a 28-14 record in games decided by under 7 points, which is extremely good, given that the average for all coaches has to be .500. Unfortunately the game we all remember that was decided by under 7 points was one of his few such losses, in 2011, to NIU.

For what it's worth, Grobe was 9-11 in games decided by under 7 points, and Knorr was 2-9 in them. As another for what it's worth, at Nebraska, Solich was a more normal 9-8 in games decided by 7 or less.

Last Edited: 5/29/2015 4:31:38 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

BillyTheCat
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RE: 5Dimes' odds on each team's win total

Posted: 5/29/2015 10:52:06 PM

L.C. wrote:

Paul Graham wrote:

Now, WMU, NIU, Marshall, Minnesota, BSU and BG....thats where the action is. If ....

A better Guatemala to those statistics would be what was the record of those teams in games decided by 7 or fewer points?

Monroe Slavin
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RE: 5Dimes' odds on each team's win total

Posted: 5/29/2015 10:54:12 PM

How a team does against good teams may be more of an indicator than being withing 7 points...espec if within 7 points of a horrid team. See much of the MAC and our OOC sched.

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Monroe Slavin
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RE: 5Dimes' odds on each team's win total

Posted: 5/29/2015 10:55:44 PM

By the within-7-point standard, we should arrange to barely win every time we play a stink team.

We could end up ranked #1 in that ranking. #1

Last Edited: 5/29/2015 10:56:34 PM by Monroe Slavin

L.C.
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RE: 5Dimes' odds on each team's win total

Posted: 5/30/2015 5:06:38 AM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

By the within-7-point standard, we should arrange to barely win every time we play a stink team.

We could end up ranked #1 in that ranking. #1

Not true. If you let a bad team stay close, they often will beat you, just as, when a better team has let Ohio stay close, Ohio has often beaten them. As an example, consider the Pitt win in 2005. Pitt was no doubt the better team, but Ohio was scrappy, and stayed close, and then found a way to win. The Illinois win was probably the same - Illinois had more talent, but Ohio wanted the win more, and got it. As a contrast, the Penn State game was not within 7. Ohio was the better team, and pulled away at the end, ending any chance of a Penn State comeback.

There are certainly some examples of close wins over bad teams. The win at NTSU comes to mind as an example of that. There are also many close wins over some pretty good teams, such as Utah State or Pitt.

Considering that the core philosophy that Solich has built the program around at Ohio is to be relentless, and never give up, is it surprising that his teams have mostly been battlers that scrapped, and often found a way to win? I wasn't expecting it to be as good as it has been, but I did expect he was over .500.

Getting the discussion back on track, 2015 has a few games that are likely to be wins, but has at least 7-8 games where the point spread will likely be under 7. If the 2015 team is as scrappy at the 2009 team, and goes something like 5-1 in close games, it will be a very good year. If, on the other hand, they are like the 2007 and 2010 teams, and they lose more close games than they win, we may see a year that isn't up to our expectations.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Paul Graham
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RE: 5Dimes' odds on each team's win total

Posted: 5/30/2015 12:22:39 PM

This is a little off track from what I was saying...which was that the season (for me at least) will be decided by how we play against the better teams on our schedule.

For three years we have struggled to beat good MAC teams. In fact, ***we haven't beaten any****. And in most cases we've been beaten badly.

If we play WMU close in Athens, or steal one from NIU in Dekalb...or god forbid beat BG!! That would be great and would show that Frank teams can still compete with the better teams in the league. I don't care what happens with Kent, Akron or the rest of the loser teams we play.

L.C.
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RE: 5Dimes' odds on each team's win total

Posted: 5/30/2015 2:33:13 PM

Paul Graham wrote:

... I don't care what happens with Kent, Akron or the rest of the loser teams we play.

OK, I get what you are saying, which is slightly off from what I'm saying. I'm saying I think Ohio will be competitive with those better teams, and they will be able to keep them close. The question will be, can they finish the games, and take wins.

As for Akron, Kent, and other "loser teams", oddly 5Dimes favors Akron to win the MAC East by a wide margin, with Buffalo in 2d, followed closely by BG, Ohio, Kent, and U.Mass. I think that's a crazy forecast, and have the same opinion you do, but they probably like the 5Dimes perspective in NE Ohio and NW New York.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Paul Graham
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RE: 5Dimes' odds on each team's win total

Posted: 5/31/2015 3:52:40 PM

I'm not so convinced that these games will be close. Speaking in broad strokes, last year I give our offense a grade of D+ and our defense a grade of B-. This year I agree we will improve...but how much? I expect at the end of the year that our offense will be at a C or maybe C+ and defense could go up to a B or B+.

I don't see much movement beyond that. All of our core pieces at QB, RB and WR will return from last year's team. That is good...but that is also bad. Same coaches, the same core players...should we really expect a radically different outcome?

Last year we lacked offensive fire power and suffered through some horrendous QB play. Our only hope to compete with teams that can score points is if we have an offensive breakthrough. Either the QB play improves significantly, or someone else emerges as a true star on offense (AJ, Papi, Maleek ???).

Bcat2
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RE: 5Dimes' odds on each team's win total

Posted: 5/31/2015 5:11:17 PM

Paul Graham wrote:

For your stars to emerge the seniors and juniors on the OL need to stay healthy and play at the All-MAC level themselves.

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

Monroe Slavin
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RE: 5Dimes' odds on each team's win total

Posted: 5/31/2015 8:16:56 PM

Paul Graham wrote:

Stop being reasonable and rational.

It is neither appreciated nor accepted here.

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