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Ohio Football

Topic: Odd Odds

Topic: Odd Odds

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GoCats105
General User

Member Since: 1/31/2006
Location: Seattle, WA
Post Count: 7,401

Status: Offline

Odd Odds

Posted: 7/7/2015 10:04:15 AM

Bobcats opened the Over/Under win total at 5.
Akron opened at a 7.5.
BG at 5.
Buffalo at 5.5.
Toledo at 7 behind NIU and WMU? Almost everywhere I've read has picked Toledo to win the league. I'm confused.

http://athlonsports.com/college-football/examining-overun...

To be fair, this isn't Vegas, this is an offshore sportsbook. But if I were a betting man, I'd take both the BG and Ohio bets and run straight to the bank to cash in.

The Optimist
General User

Member Since: 3/16/2007
Location: CLE
Post Count: 5,577

Status: Offline

RE: Odd Odds

Posted: 7/7/2015 12:56:06 PM

Wait, 5 total wins? Is this legitimate? $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

I've seen crazier things happen.

colobobcat66
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Member Since: 9/1/2006
Location: Watching the bobcats run outside my window., CO
Post Count: 4,523

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RE: Odd Odds

Posted: 7/7/2015 1:28:21 PM

The Optimist wrote:

Wait, 5 total wins? Is this legitimate? $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Monroe is their football expert.

GoCats105
General User

Member Since: 1/31/2006
Location: Seattle, WA
Post Count: 7,401

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RE: Odd Odds

Posted: 7/7/2015 1:36:28 PM

The Optimist wrote:

Wait, 5 total wins? Is this legitimate? $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Yes. FIVE.

They've got some pretty odd numbers across the board. UNC, which I've seen as low as last in their division in the Coastal, has an O/U of 8 wins.

L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,478

Status: Offline

RE: Odd Odds

Posted: 7/7/2015 1:41:46 PM

I like the reviews by Athlon, and I generally agree with their comments on all the teams. On EMU, Kent and Toledo I lean the other way than they do, and on CMU I lean to over while they are neutral, but in all those cases the differences are very minor.

Akron 7.5, my computer says 4.8. Athlon says the play is under
BG 5.0, my computer says 6.9, Athlon says the play is over, but not at 5
Buffalo 5.5, my computer says 5.0, Athlon says the play is under, but close
Kent 4.5, my computer says 3.9, Athlon says slight lean to over
Miami 4, my computer says 3.4, Athlon says slight lean to under
Ohio 5, my computer says 6.9, Athlon says "love the over for Ohio"
UMass 4.5, my computer says 7.0, Athlon says the over is the play

Ball St 7, my computer says 6.9, Athlon says "I think this is a good number"
CMU 4, my computer says 5.3, Athlon says 4 is about right
EMU 1.5, my computer says .7, Athlon says "I think the over is the right side"
NIU 8.5, my computer says 6.8, Athlon says "I'm going under on NIU"
Toledo 7, my computer says 7.9, Athlon likes the under
WMU 8, my computer says 7.4, Athlon leans to the under

If I were a betting man, I'd bet the under on Akron, and the over on Ohio and Miami. In those games my computer is off of the betting numbers by about 2 games or more.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

brucecuth
General User

Member Since: 12/21/2004
Post Count: 1,828

Status: Offline

RE: Odd Odds

Posted: 7/7/2015 3:17:48 PM

yes, but...

Quite often, sportsbooks will post an initial over/under number, such as Ohio 5, -110. That's generally considered an even money bet, with the book collecting a slight commission. Bet $110 on the Bobcats to win more than 5, and if they do, win an additional $100. Same if you bet under. If the Cats win exactly 5, that's a push and you get yr money back.

However, there are LOTS of people who like the Cats over 5, at least at my book. But instead of upping the number to say, 5&1/2, they've reduced the payout on the over. So at this moment, the bet is Ohio over 5, -150, meaning to win yr $100, you have to wager $150. Much of the value in this bet is gone, although if you are absolutely convinced the Cats will win 6 or more, then it is still worth it.

The value is now on the under. If you wager $100 of the cats to win 4 or fewer, you'd collect an additional $130 if you were correct. Shame on you, though, if you make this bet.

I'm holding my fire. I wanna see if we can get through fall camp without any crippling injuries...

You like Akron to win fewer than 7.5? Well, you gotta lay $180 to win $100...

Last Edited: 7/7/2015 3:20:38 PM by brucecuth

C Money
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Member Since: 8/28/2010
Post Count: 3,420

Status: Offline

RE: Odd Odds

Posted: 7/7/2015 3:48:12 PM

brucecuth wrote:

But instead of upping the number to say, 5&1/2, they've reduced the payout on the over. So at this moment, the bet is Ohio over 5, -150, meaning to win yr $100, you have to wager $150. Much of the value in this bet is gone, although if you are absolutely convinced the Cats will win 6 or more, then it is still worth it.

The value is now on the under. If you wager $100 of the cats to win 4 or fewer, you'd collect an additional $130 if you were correct. Shame on you, though, if you make this bet.

That's what I gathered from those lines. They're begging people to lay money out on what seem like no-brainers in July. But...

brucecuth wrote:

I wanna see if we can get through fall camp without any crippling injuries...

...football isn't played in July. As we know all too well, injuries (and arrests, dismissals, attitudes, etc.) can wreck what should be a no-brainer season. Some of those lines are just too good to bet at this point.

But yeah, if we only win 5 games, I am going long on pitchforks and torches futures. Greece's exit from the Euro be damned.

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