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Let's list how many yards/game they gave up, and points/game. Ranking them in by points given up: 2006 - 303, 18.1 9-4/MAC East/Bowl 2009 - 348, 21.3 9-4/MAC East/Bowl 2011 - 361, 22.1 9-4/MAC East/Bowl 2010 - 353, 23.8 8-4/Bowl 2012 - 389, 24.8 8-4/Bowl 2014 - 394, 24.8 6-6 2013 - 406, 27.5 7-5/Bowl 2008 - 349, 28.2 4-8 2007 - 408, 29.9 6-6 2005 - 453, 30.5 4-7 The correlation is pretty obvious. How good can this defense be? I'm thinking it will be comparable to the 2009-2011 defenses, but they seem to have a nasty streak that reminds me of the 2006 defense, so I'm hoping they will surprise me and hold opposing teams to under 21 points a game. Let's also do the same thing for offense: 2011 - 446, 33.5 9-4/MAC East/Bowl 2012 - 445, 31.7 8-4/Bowl 2007 - 363, 30.5 6-6 2010 - 326, 27.5 8-4/Bowl 2013 - 379, 27.4 7-5/Bowl 2009 - 310, 24.8 9-4/MAC East/Bowl 2008 - 361, 24.1 4-8 2014 - 370, 20.5 6-6 2006 - 277, 19.7 9-4/MAC East/Bowl 2005 - 293, 17.5 4-7 There isn't a lot of correlation here. On the other hand, obviously since the defenses were the same between 2012 and 2014, the better offense in 2012 made a big difference. Similarly, the very good offense in 2007 kept that team from being as bad as you would have expected from the defense. How good will the 2015 offense be? I think this offense will be effective particularly at moving the ball on the ground. That doesn't lend itself to huge offensive numbers like 2011 and 2012. Instead, I see this offense as similar to 2008-2010. Therefore I'm thinking in terms of an offense that averages 24 to 27 points a game. Suppose the offense does average 26 a game, and the defense does average 21 a game. That's a +5 margin. Let's look at the data one last time, this time using the average margin: 2011: +85,+8.4 9-4/MAC East/Bowl 2012: +56,+6.9 8-4/Bowl 2010: -27,+3.7 8-4/Bowl 2009: -38,+3.5 9-4/MAC East/Bowl 2006: -26,+1.6 9-4/MAC East/Bowl 2007: -45,+0.6 6-6 2013: -26,-0.1 7-5/Bowl 2008: +13,-3.1 4-8 2014: -24,-4.1 6-6 2005: -160,-13.0 4-7 There is obviously strong correlation here, too, but one other thing stands out. I notice that only 3 of the ten teams averaged more yards than they gave up, while 6 of ten averaged more points than they gave up. Anyway, if I am right, and Ohio does average +5 more points than they gave up, this should be a pretty good team. “We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus Back to Top Mark Lembright '85 General User Member Since: 8/22/2010 Location: Highland Heights, OH Post Count: 2,460 Status: Offline     RE: Ohio 2015 - The key is defense    Posted: 8/18/2015 9:13:29 PM  LC, is it humanly possible for you to come up w/ a poor analysis? I doubt it-great stuff as always!! I do hope the defense lives up to everyone's expectations. Fingers crossed. Back to Top Bcat2 General User Member Since: 7/6/2010 Post Count: 4,295 Status: Offline     RE: Ohio 2015 - The key is defense    Posted: 8/18/2015 9:33:52 PM  L.C. wrote: Let's look back at the last decade, and the years with the best defenses. Let's list how many yards/game they gave up, and points/game. Ranking them in by points given up: 2006 - 303, 18.1 9-4/MAC East/Bowl 2009 - 348, 21.3 9-4/MAC East/Bowl 2011 - 361, 22.1 9-4/MAC East/Bowl 2010 - 353, 23.8 8-4/Bowl 2012 - 389, 24.8 8-4/Bowl 2014 - 394, 24.8 6-6 2013 - 406, 27.5 7-5/Bowl 2008 - 349, 28.2 4-8 2007 - 408, 29.9 6-6 2005 - 453, 30.5 4-7 The correlation is pretty obvious. How good can this defense be? I'm thinking it will be comparable to the 2009-2011 defenses, but they seem to have a nasty streak that reminds me of the 2006 defense, so I'm hoping they will surprise me and hold opposing teams to under 21 points a game. Let's also do the same thing for offense: 2011 - 446, 33.5 9-4/MAC East/Bowl 2012 - 445, 31.7 8-4/Bowl 2007 - 363, 30.5 6-6 2010 - 326, 27.5 8-4/Bowl 2013 - 379, 27.4 7-5/Bowl 2009 - 310, 24.8 9-4/MAC East/Bowl 2008 - 361, 24.1 4-8 2014 - 370, 20.5 6-6 2006 - 277, 19.7 9-4/MAC East/Bowl 2005 - 293, 17.5 4-7 There isn't a lot of correlation here. On the other hand, obviously since the defenses were the same between 2012 and 2014, the better offense in 2012 made a big difference. Similarly, the very good offense in 2007 kept that team from being as bad as you would have expected from the defense. How good will the 2015 offense be? I think this offense will be effective particularly at moving the ball on the ground. That doesn't lend itself to huge offensive numbers like 2011 and 2012. Instead, I see this offense as similar to 2008-2010. Therefore I'm thinking in terms of an offense that averages 24 to 27 points a game. Suppose the offense does average 26 a game, and the defense does average 21 a game. That's a +5 margin. Let's look at the data one last time, this time using the average margin: 2011: +85,+8.4 9-4/MAC East/Bowl 2012: +56,+6.9 8-4/Bowl 2010: -27,+3.7 8-4/Bowl 2009: -38,+3.5 9-4/MAC East/Bowl 2006: -26,+1.6 9-4/MAC East/Bowl 2007: -45,+0.6 6-6 2013: -26,-0.1 7-5/Bowl 2008: +13,-3.1 4-8 2014: -24,-4.1 6-6 2005: -160,-13.0 4-7 There is obviously strong correlation here, too, but one other thing stands out. I notice that only 3 of the ten teams averaged more yards than they gave up, while 6 of ten averaged more points than they gave up. Anyway, if I am right, and Ohio does average +5 more points than they gave up, this should be a pretty good team. Three words. Defense wins championships. Nine more. Run the ball, stop the run, win the game. "Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK Back to Top TWT General User Member Since: 12/20/2004 Location: Alexandria, VA Post Count: 5,150 Status: Offline     RE: Ohio 2015 - The key is defense    Posted: 8/18/2015 10:02:59 PM  L.C. wrote: Let's also do the same thing for offense: 2011 - 446, 33.5 9-4/MAC East/Bowl 2012 - 445, 31.7 8-4/Bowl 2013 - 379, 27.4 7-5/Bowl 2014 - 370, 20.5 6-6 2007 - 363, 30.5 6-6 2008 - 361, 24.1 4-8 2010 - 326, 27.5 8-4/Bowl 2009 - 310, 24.8 9-4/MAC East/Bowl 2005 - 293, 17.5 4-7 2006 - 277, 19.7 9-4/MAC East/Bowl A good sign from 2014 is the amount of yardage produced by the offense is high for the ppg. Ohio should have averaged at least 25ppg last season based on that yardage not 20.5ppg. It also shows how much the 2006 team over achieved. With new standouts on defense its believable the defense will be better and as long as the offense achieves normally it should be a winning year. Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended 2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round 2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl 2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086 Back to Top TWT General User Member Since: 12/20/2004 Location: Alexandria, VA Post Count: 5,150 Status: Offline     RE: Ohio 2015 - The key is defense    Posted: 8/18/2015 10:12:31 PM  The real key is getting past Bowling Green. If Ohio can win @BG it can win the MAC East at 5-3. With Akron, Miami, Kent State, Ball State and Buffalo on the schedule all Ohio needs to do is grab 4 wins from that group and beat BG to take the MAC East. Then once in the MAC title game the Bobcats certainly won't be favorites but anything can happen. All other talk such as overall record or bowl game isn't important. Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended 2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round 2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl 2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086 Back to Top Bcat2 General User Member Since: 7/6/2010 Post Count: 4,295 Status: Offline     RE: Ohio 2015 - The key is defense    Posted: 8/18/2015 10:23:51 PM  Uncle Wes wrote: The real key is getting past Bowling Green. If Ohio can win @BG it can win the MAC East at 5-3. With Akron, Miami, Kent State, Ball State and Buffalo on the schedule all Ohio needs to do is grab 4 wins from that group and beat BG to take the MAC East. Then once in the MAC title game the Bobcats certainly won't be favorites but anything can happen. All other talk such as overall record or bowl game isn't important. What he said. Simple. "Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." 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