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My plan is to use this post to break down our past portal classes, and then come back once we have a roster in place to analyze the current class and what it means for the upcoming season. All data displayed is from EvanMiya.com. Why is EvanMiya the gold standard for college basketball analytics? Historically, sites like KenPom and Torvik leveraged advanced metrics to analyze teams on a per-possession basis. This helps normalize analysis for pace and puts fast and slow teams on an even playing field. EvanMiya builds on those tools by starting with line-by-line, play-by-play data. Because of this, his model generates metrics that account for pace and for who is actually on the floor. If a game is in junk time and a bench player scores a ton of points on the other team's benchwarmers, this system accounts for that directly and won't artificially prop the player up. What are the metrics? - OBPR: The impact a player has on the offensive side of the floor. An OBPR of 0 is the average across NCAA D1. A player like Jason Preston with a 4.81 is well above average, and someone like Jalen Breath with a -1.93 is below average. - DBPR: The impact a player has on the defensive side of the floor. Similar to OBPR, the D1 average is 0. Someone like Jason Carter with a 2.35 is an above-average defender, and someone like Dior Conners with a -1.78 is a below-average defender. - BPR: OBPR + DBPR. This is the player's overall impact on the game. Unsurprisingly, the highest of the Boals era was Jason Preston with a 6.37 (4.81 OBPR + 1.57 DBPR). Others that stick out include Mark Sears with a 5.44 (4.67 OBPR + 0.77 DBPR) and Jaylin Hunter with a 5.39 (4.37 OBPR + 1.02 DBPR). - Projected BPR: A projection of how good a transfer portal player is going to be the following season. This attempts to account for situations where a player may have been elevated or held back by their previous team being exceptionally good or bad. Let's walk through past portal classes, starting with 2022 and going through last year. (Note: Players who transferred up from non-D1 schools, like Tommy Schmock or Vic Searls, do not have data for projections). Past Portal Prospects (Year - Player: Previous Season BPR | Projected BPR | 1st Season Actual BPR) - 2022 - Jaylin Hunter: 2.36 | 2.56 | 5.49 - 2022 - Gabe Wiznitzer: -0.77 | 0.04 | -3.76 - 2022 - DeVon Baker: -0.06 | -0.59 | 0.37 - 2023 - Shereef Mitchell: -0.86 | -0.08 | 2.47 - 2023 - Ike Cornish: -2.15 | -0.65 | -2.29 - 2024 - Jackson Paveletzke: 0.89 | 0.58 | 1.15 - 2025 - Javan Simmons: 1.94 | 2.70 | 2.20 - 2025 - Jalen Breath: 0.16 | 0.25 | -1.39 - 2025 - Dior Conners: -0.90 | -0.51 | -2.82 Who were the biggest wins relative to their projections? - Jaylin Hunter: Came in as a very good portal prospect and emerged as one of the best players in the conference for two years. His defensive impact metrics really stick out - he was a good offensive player, but his defensive stats made him an elite MAC player. - Shereef Mitchell: Outperformed expectations. Worth noting that his first two seasons at Creighton saw numbers similar to what he did at Ohio, so his projections were likely skewed down by a single bad season. Who were the biggest losses relative to their projections? - The Wiz: Projected to be a solid rotational piece but netted out his first season as a -3.76, one of the worst rotational seasons in the Boals era. Fun fact: The Wiz was the first player that honed me in on the EvanMiya data. I had high hopes for a former 4-star, 6-11 center, but noticed early on that the other team tended to go on runs when he was on the court. The data very much supported that theory. - Conners and Breath: Both ranked as roughly average portal prospects, and both saw significant regressions from where they were in prior seasons. Moral of the story: players projected to be high-value prospects (Hunter/Simmons) tend to hold up and, in the case of Hunter, outperform projections. Players projected to be negatives tend to remain negatives, and average players tend to remain exactly that. Are the projections perfect? Absolutely not. The model needs enough historical data on a player to be accurate, and it really struggles to predict outcomes for guys who transfer down without much playing time. The model forces those players toward average, which makes them incredibly volatile - a Daniel Freitag at Buffalo can project as average and emerge as a top player in the conference, while an Ike Cornish can project as average and turn out to be a negative. Even with players who have a lot of minutes on tape, it is hard to account for system fit from one spot to another. I plan to follow up in this thread when the portal haul is complete to compare where the team projects out relative to past teams. As a sneak preview, Kyler D'Augustino projects as an even better portal prospect than Simmons. EvanMiya predicts him to be a 3.13 for next season, making him the highest-rated portal prospect we have landed in the portal era. It is also a huge plus that he is a local kid and will likely bring in some extra attendance. Back to Top M.D.W.S.T General User Member Since: 12/23/2021 Post Count: 3,650 Status: Offline     RE: Transfer Portal - An Analysis of the Haul    Posted: 4/9/2026 9:20:04 AM  What I love about KDA is this kid is as excited to be a Bobcat as I've ever seen. His whole comment section on instagram is about how he used to dream of playing at OU. Multiple times people were like "You always said you'd be here", "Remember when...?", "We talked about this when we were kids..." Happy as hell for the kid. And I think we got a good one. Not just as a person, but a ball player. Back to Top FJC31 General User Member Since: 3/31/2022 Post Count: 2,226 Status: Offline     RE: Transfer Portal - An Analysis of the Haul    Posted: 4/9/2026 9:38:20 AM  Great info, Quant. It's always been apparent one of our staff's strengths has been adding PGs via the portal. This shows that and I expect continuity with that in KDA. Simmons aside, it's everywhere else where seem to be lacking which has shown in the roster imbalance and on court results. Back to Top Bobcat1998 General User Member Since: 11/7/2012 Post Count: 2,759 Status: Offline     RE: Transfer Portal - An Analysis of the Haul    Posted: 4/9/2026 9:49:45 AM  QuantCat wrote: With portal season heating up, I wanted to take a look back at our past transfer hauls, where each player ranked coming in, and how they actually performed. My plan is to use this post to break down our past portal classes, and then come back once we have a roster in place to analyze the current class and what it means for the upcoming season. All data displayed is from EvanMiya.com. Why is EvanMiya the gold standard for college basketball analytics? Historically, sites like KenPom and Torvik leveraged advanced metrics to analyze teams on a per-possession basis. This helps normalize analysis for pace and puts fast and slow teams on an even playing field. EvanMiya builds on those tools by starting with line-by-line, play-by-play data. Because of this, his model generates metrics that account for pace and for who is actually on the floor. If a game is in junk time and a bench player scores a ton of points on the other team's benchwarmers, this system accounts for that directly and won't artificially prop the player up. What are the metrics? - OBPR: The impact a player has on the offensive side of the floor. An OBPR of 0 is the average across NCAA D1. A player like Jason Preston with a 4.81 is well above average, and someone like Jalen Breath with a -1.93 is below average. - DBPR: The impact a player has on the defensive side of the floor. Similar to OBPR, the D1 average is 0. Someone like Jason Carter with a 2.35 is an above-average defender, and someone like Dior Conners with a -1.78 is a below-average defender. - BPR: OBPR + DBPR. This is the player's overall impact on the game. Unsurprisingly, the highest of the Boals era was Jason Preston with a 6.37 (4.81 OBPR + 1.57 DBPR). Others that stick out include Mark Sears with a 5.44 (4.67 OBPR + 0.77 DBPR) and Jaylin Hunter with a 5.39 (4.37 OBPR + 1.02 DBPR). - Projected BPR: A projection of how good a transfer portal player is going to be the following season. This attempts to account for situations where a player may have been elevated or held back by their previous team being exceptionally good or bad. Let's walk through past portal classes, starting with 2022 and going through last year. (Note: Players who transferred up from non-D1 schools, like Tommy Schmock or Vic Searls, do not have data for projections). Past Portal Prospects (Year - Player: Previous Season BPR | Projected BPR | 1st Season Actual BPR) - 2022 - Jaylin Hunter: 2.36 | 2.56 | 5.49 - 2022 - Gabe Wiznitzer: -0.77 | 0.04 | -3.76 - 2022 - DeVon Baker: -0.06 | -0.59 | 0.37 - 2023 - Shereef Mitchell: -0.86 | -0.08 | 2.47 - 2023 - Ike Cornish: -2.15 | -0.65 | -2.29 - 2024 - Jackson Paveletzke: 0.89 | 0.58 | 1.15 - 2025 - Javan Simmons: 1.94 | 2.70 | 2.20 - 2025 - Jalen Breath: 0.16 | 0.25 | -1.39 - 2025 - Dior Conners: -0.90 | -0.51 | -2.82 Who were the biggest wins relative to their projections? - Jaylin Hunter: Came in as a very good portal prospect and emerged as one of the best players in the conference for two years. His defensive impact metrics really stick out - he was a good offensive player, but his defensive stats made him an elite MAC player. - Shereef Mitchell: Outperformed expectations. Worth noting that his first two seasons at Creighton saw numbers similar to what he did at Ohio, so his projections were likely skewed down by a single bad season. Who were the biggest losses relative to their projections? - The Wiz: Projected to be a solid rotational piece but netted out his first season as a -3.76, one of the worst rotational seasons in the Boals era. Fun fact: The Wiz was the first player that honed me in on the EvanMiya data. I had high hopes for a former 4-star, 6-11 center, but noticed early on that the other team tended to go on runs when he was on the court. The data very much supported that theory. - Conners and Breath: Both ranked as roughly average portal prospects, and both saw significant regressions from where they were in prior seasons. Moral of the story: players projected to be high-value prospects (Hunter/Simmons) tend to hold up and, in the case of Hunter, outperform projections. Players projected to be negatives tend to remain negatives, and average players tend to remain exactly that. Are the projections perfect? Absolutely not. The model needs enough historical data on a player to be accurate, and it really struggles to predict outcomes for guys who transfer down without much playing time. The model forces those players toward average, which makes them incredibly volatile - a Daniel Freitag at Buffalo can project as average and emerge as a top player in the conference, while an Ike Cornish can project as average and turn out to be a negative. Even with players who have a lot of minutes on tape, it is hard to account for system fit from one spot to another. I plan to follow up in this thread when the portal haul is complete to compare where the team projects out relative to past teams. As a sneak preview, Kyler D'Augustino projects as an even better portal prospect than Simmons. EvanMiya predicts him to be a 3.13 for next season, making him the highest-rated portal prospect we have landed in the portal era. It is also a huge plus that he is a local kid and will likely bring in some extra attendance. You are forgetting Sylvester Ogbonda from his first year, Dwight Wilson from Year 2 and Tommy Schmock from year 3 along with Vic Searls two years ago. All portal guys. I would contend that Vest was a great role player and that team was going to shock the MAC Tourney if COVID didn't happen. DW3 had a great career. And Schmock, in my opinion, was a baller. Vic was Vic. Nothing flashy but a solid piece. Back to Top Bobcat Tattoo General User Member Since: 12/11/2022 Post Count: 248 Status: Offline     RE: Transfer Portal - An Analysis of the Haul    Posted: 4/9/2026 10:03:09 AM  Bobcat1998 wrote: QuantCat wrote: With portal season heating up, I wanted to take a look back at our past transfer hauls, where each player ranked coming in, and how they actually performed. My plan is to use this post to break down our past portal classes, and then come back once we have a roster in place to analyze the current class and what it means for the upcoming season. All data displayed is from EvanMiya.com. Why is EvanMiya the gold standard for college basketball analytics? Historically, sites like KenPom and Torvik leveraged advanced metrics to analyze teams on a per-possession basis. This helps normalize analysis for pace and puts fast and slow teams on an even playing field. EvanMiya builds on those tools by starting with line-by-line, play-by-play data. Because of this, his model generates metrics that account for pace and for who is actually on the floor. If a game is in junk time and a bench player scores a ton of points on the other team's benchwarmers, this system accounts for that directly and won't artificially prop the player up. What are the metrics? - OBPR: The impact a player has on the offensive side of the floor. An OBPR of 0 is the average across NCAA D1. A player like Jason Preston with a 4.81 is well above average, and someone like Jalen Breath with a -1.93 is below average. - DBPR: The impact a player has on the defensive side of the floor. Similar to OBPR, the D1 average is 0. Someone like Jason Carter with a 2.35 is an above-average defender, and someone like Dior Conners with a -1.78 is a below-average defender. - BPR: OBPR + DBPR. This is the player's overall impact on the game. Unsurprisingly, the highest of the Boals era was Jason Preston with a 6.37 (4.81 OBPR + 1.57 DBPR). Others that stick out include Mark Sears with a 5.44 (4.67 OBPR + 0.77 DBPR) and Jaylin Hunter with a 5.39 (4.37 OBPR + 1.02 DBPR). - Projected BPR: A projection of how good a transfer portal player is going to be the following season. This attempts to account for situations where a player may have been elevated or held back by their previous team being exceptionally good or bad. Let's walk through past portal classes, starting with 2022 and going through last year. (Note: Players who transferred up from non-D1 schools, like Tommy Schmock or Vic Searls, do not have data for projections). Past Portal Prospects (Year - Player: Previous Season BPR | Projected BPR | 1st Season Actual BPR) - 2022 - Jaylin Hunter: 2.36 | 2.56 | 5.49 - 2022 - Gabe Wiznitzer: -0.77 | 0.04 | -3.76 - 2022 - DeVon Baker: -0.06 | -0.59 | 0.37 - 2023 - Shereef Mitchell: -0.86 | -0.08 | 2.47 - 2023 - Ike Cornish: -2.15 | -0.65 | -2.29 - 2024 - Jackson Paveletzke: 0.89 | 0.58 | 1.15 - 2025 - Javan Simmons: 1.94 | 2.70 | 2.20 - 2025 - Jalen Breath: 0.16 | 0.25 | -1.39 - 2025 - Dior Conners: -0.90 | -0.51 | -2.82 Who were the biggest wins relative to their projections? - Jaylin Hunter: Came in as a very good portal prospect and emerged as one of the best players in the conference for two years. His defensive impact metrics really stick out - he was a good offensive player, but his defensive stats made him an elite MAC player. - Shereef Mitchell: Outperformed expectations. Worth noting that his first two seasons at Creighton saw numbers similar to what he did at Ohio, so his projections were likely skewed down by a single bad season. Who were the biggest losses relative to their projections? - The Wiz: Projected to be a solid rotational piece but netted out his first season as a -3.76, one of the worst rotational seasons in the Boals era. Fun fact: The Wiz was the first player that honed me in on the EvanMiya data. I had high hopes for a former 4-star, 6-11 center, but noticed early on that the other team tended to go on runs when he was on the court. The data very much supported that theory. - Conners and Breath: Both ranked as roughly average portal prospects, and both saw significant regressions from where they were in prior seasons. Moral of the story: players projected to be high-value prospects (Hunter/Simmons) tend to hold up and, in the case of Hunter, outperform projections. Players projected to be negatives tend to remain negatives, and average players tend to remain exactly that. Are the projections perfect? Absolutely not. The model needs enough historical data on a player to be accurate, and it really struggles to predict outcomes for guys who transfer down without much playing time. The model forces those players toward average, which makes them incredibly volatile - a Daniel Freitag at Buffalo can project as average and emerge as a top player in the conference, while an Ike Cornish can project as average and turn out to be a negative. Even with players who have a lot of minutes on tape, it is hard to account for system fit from one spot to another. I plan to follow up in this thread when the portal haul is complete to compare where the team projects out relative to past teams. As a sneak preview, Kyler D'Augustino projects as an even better portal prospect than Simmons. EvanMiya predicts him to be a 3.13 for next season, making him the highest-rated portal prospect we have landed in the portal era. It is also a huge plus that he is a local kid and will likely bring in some extra attendance. You are forgetting Sylvester Ogbonda from his first year, Dwight Wilson from Year 2 and Tommy Schmock from year 3 along with Vic Searls two years ago. All portal guys. I would contend that Vest was a great role player and that team was going to shock the MAC Tourney if COVID didn't happen. DW3 had a great career. And Schmock, in my opinion, was a baller. Vic was Vic. Nothing flashy but a solid piece. From QuantCat's post: "Note: Players who transferred up from non-D1 schools, like Tommy Schmock or Vic Searls, do not have data for projections." As for Vest and Dwight, EvanMiya is pretty new, so he doesn't have data going back that far. But if I had to guess, I'd wager Dwight was a strong positive, beyond what was expected, and Vest was in the 0.5-1 range. Back to Top QuantCat General User Member Since: 7/15/2025 Post Count: 28 Status: Offline     RE: Transfer Portal - An Analysis of the Haul    Posted: 4/9/2026 10:41:45 AM  Bobcat Tattoo wrote: Bobcat1998 wrote: You are forgetting Sylvester Ogbonda from his first year, Dwight Wilson from Year 2 and Tommy Schmock from year 3 along with Vic Searls two years ago. All portal guys. I would contend that Vest was a great role player and that team was going to shock the MAC Tourney if COVID didn't happen. DW3 had a great career. And Schmock, in my opinion, was a baller. Vic was Vic. Nothing flashy but a solid piece. From QuantCat's post: "Note: Players who transferred up from non-D1 schools, like Tommy Schmock or Vic Searls, do not have data for projections." As for Vest and Dwight, EvanMiya is pretty new, so he doesn't have data going back that far. But if I had to guess, I'd wager Dwight was a strong positive, beyond what was expected, and Vest was in the 0.5-1 range. It’s exactly this, a limitation of the EvanMiya data is that it only does analysis on division 1 players and games. Completely agree with you on Vic and Tommy, Tommy might be one of my favorite bobcats I’ve watched in the convo. Not the most talented player we’ve had but seemed to just be everywhere on the court, hit a lot of big shots, and really embraced the role he was given. The other limitation is how far back his projection data for transfers goes. I started with 2022 because that was the first year he had projections for everyone. The overall data goes back to 2009-2010, it’s just that the specific functionality of projecting portal guys for how well the would play the next year is newer. I’ll include the D1 transfers he got before that data is available by listing out their ratings from the year before they came to Ohio and then their first year. Pre 2022 D1 portal grabs (year - player: prior season rating | first season actual rating) 2021 - Jason Carter: 2.76 | 3.36 2020 - Dwight Wilson: -0.42 | 2.26 2019 - Sylvester Ogbonda: 0.27 | 0.91 Carter is obviously a unique situation since he boomeranged and already had relationships with guys on the team. Regardless, getting him back was a win, as his ratings over the years were incredibly consistent between here and Xavier. He was never rated lower than 2.5 and peaked at around a 3.5 in the last Saul year. Last Edited: 4/9/2026 10:43:03 AM by QuantCat Back to Top Showing Replies:   1 - 6  of 6 Posts Jump to Page:   1 View Other 'Ohio Basketball' Topics                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               WHO'S ONLINE There are 198 Active Visitors on BobcatAttack.com 195 Guests 3 Registered Users:   OUs LONG Driver, ohio9704, colobobcat66 There are no other users looking at this page.

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