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Topic: RE: Another problem of Covid?

Topic: RE: Another problem of Covid?

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Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/29/2020 1:56:11 PM

rpbobcat wrote:

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:

You mean in twelve years. Vaccine in three, and then the nine years it's going to take to convince anti-vaxxers that it's not a government mind control serum.

I'm not an anti-vaxxer.

I never heard about the vaccine being a mind control serum.

I did hear people claiming it could have a nano chip in it,kind of like "Demolition Man".

Don't believe that either.

That being said,there's no way I even consider getting the vaccine for at least a couple of years.

As I understand it,the clinical tests determine the effectiveness of the vaccine against Covid.

Potential side effects don't become apparent until the vaccine has been in widespread circulation for a period of time.

I can tell you from a bad experience I had with Aleve,the side effect was worse then the pain.
In my case the side effect (muscle weakness) wasn't even on the package.
It may be now.
I researched it and was at the bottom of the list of potential side effects.

Lucky me.

Biggest joke.
I sent a letter to the manufacturer (Bayer) about it.

Got a letter back,thanking me for my comments,with a coupon for a free bottle.

Yeah, the 'mind control serum' thing is just a joke I made up. That you thought it's possible it was a real conspiracy theory says a lot about the current moment in America.

I think a large number of Americans feel similarly to how you feel, in terms of vaccine. It makes me concerned we're going to be living with this for much longer than anyone thinks.

If Americans are unwilling to take the vaccine -- and some polling suggests that's the case for up to 70% of people -- I think we're in a lot of trouble.

rpbobcat
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/29/2020 2:24:58 PM

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:

Like I said,I never heard anything about "mind control" with Covid.

But its come up a number of times in the past,including people thinking the government was doing that with cell phones and T.V. signals.

Thank God my tinfoil hat and the one way film on my windows keeps me safe. :-)

As far as a vaccine,the world has changed.
When I was a little kid,Polio was still around.
My neighbor got it and could only walk with braces and crutches.

I was little,but my mom said people couldn't wait to get their kids inoculated.

When the oral vaccine came out they gave it to us in school.

In the case of Polio,the disease was so devastating,I still remember pictures of Iron Lungs,side effects weren't even a consideration.

As far as a covid vaccine,they seem to be making leaps and bounds in treatment.
That will do a lot,especially if a vaccine has limited effectiveness.

L.C.
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/29/2020 3:35:16 PM

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:

I interpreted "mind control" as a catchall for all the various conspiracy theories. There are people that believe them, but the real problem is the people who are uncertain about safety. Since vaccines typically have taken 5 years or longer to develop, trying to make one in a year or less is definitely "warp speed". Some of the time savings comes from overlapping phase 1 and 2, and going directly to phase 3. Some comes from starting manufacturing during phase 3, on the hopes of a good result, but being willing to discard everything you have manufactured if it fails in phase 3. These are all riskier from a financial standpoint than proceeding linearly, since if the product fails at some point, you have spent more, but really don't compromise the medical aspect.

Normally Phase 2 trials can last between several months up to 2 years, while Phase 3 typically takes 1-4 years. Phase 2 is supposed to evaluate short term effects. Phase 3 is supposed to evaluate longer term effects:
https://www.clinicaltrialsandme.com/resources/how-long-do...

If Phase 3 is cut short, at say 5 months, will you really know the longer term effects? That is where there would seem to be a compromise with some risks.

As a comparison, in 1976 they rushed out a vaccine for an anticipated Swine Flu epidemic. After 25% of the people in the country had been vaccinated (including me), they stopped administering it when it was determined that vaccinated people had an elevated risk of Guillain-Barr� Syndrome. As an interesting side note, they used a jet injector to administer that vaccine. Rather than needles, a gun used high pressure air to inject the vaccine directly through the skin.

Last Edited: 7/29/2020 3:45:12 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

The Optimist
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/29/2020 4:35:25 PM

I agree 100% with RP.

We won�t know in 3 years if it�s safe. We won�t know in 12 years if it�s safe. I cannot count the number of radio/tv ads I hear for lawyers saying �did this drug cause this� when 10-20 years ago we were hearing ads about the benefits of those same drugs...

I wish we would focus more on boosting people�s immune systems rather than going for a miracle cure in a vaccine. Lots of calls for �social distance� and �wear a mask� but not nearly enough �go exercise� and �eat healthy� IMO

I've seen crazier things happen.

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/29/2020 6:39:13 PM

The Optimist wrote:

I wish we were capable of focusing on literally any approach at all.

It's all of the half measures, late closings, early reopenings, stupid hydroxychloroquine conversations, ridiculous debate over whether masks are an erosion of liberty, and a subpar testing strategy that have us where we are.

I mean, the President retweeted a quack doctor claiming hydroxychloroquine is a cure yesterday. A Republican Senator said his mask gave him Covid. We're 150,000 deaths into this crisis and PPE is a political issue, still. And the President is pushing the idea that Doctors are working against him. Still.

And for what it's worth, given how many people are completely unwilling to put a piece of thin cloth over their nose and mouth, I don't think "completely change your exercise and diet habits" is a super viable strategy here. People have thrashed around like children about being asked to put forth the tiniest bit of effort for the greater good. Nothing about that makes me super bullish about a strategy that involves improving one's immune system through dedication and hard work, especially in a country with obesity and heart disease rates of the US.

Frankly, the idea that Americans just "go exercise" and "eat healthy" would be a much bigger miracle than science producing a vaccine. Science has produced reliable vaccines for 200 years. Americans have a 200 year history of being fat and unhealthy. I know which side of that action I'm taking.

Last Edited: 7/29/2020 6:51:13 PM by Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame

L.C.
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/29/2020 7:08:28 PM

The current record for speed in developing a vaccine was set in 1967 when a vaccine for the Mumps was developed in four years. The average time to develop a vaccine is 11 years. About 6% of experimental vaccines end up being approved.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/the-ke...

Phase 3 normally takes 5 years alone. As I mentioned above, one thing that is speeding things up is compressing multiple steps to occur simultaneously. Another possible big time saver would be to do Phase 3 using "challenge trials", which are normally used in the animal stage, but not with humans. In a normal trial, you inject some people with the vaccine, and others with a placebo, and then see if the vaccinated group gets infected less, which takes time. In a "challenge trial", you inject people with the vaccine, then deliberately try to infect them. This is an ethical concern, however, as there is a risk that people you "challenged" will have a bad outcome.

Even with the normal long term development time, sometimes things go wrong. I mentioned the 1976 Swine flu vaccine above. The Bloomberg article mentions a few others:
2011 GlaxoSmithKline vaccine against swine flu linked to narcolepsy
2003 SmithKlineBeecham vaccine against lyme disease linked to arthritis
1960's vaccine against RSV made cases of RSV worse, not better

Could there be a vaccine later this year, or in early 2021? Yes, it's possible, and that would reduce the all-time record from 4 years to 1. How safe will it be? How effective? Those are harder questions to answer.

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:

... Americans have a 200 year history of being fat and unhealthy. I know which side of that action I'm taking.

Sometimes an immediate threat is a stronger motivator than a long term, not proximate threat. I do think that people should be hearing regularly that they should be trying to exercise, to take Vitamin D, and to eat better. In particular, they should be trying to eat less sugar and simple carbs, and less processed foods, and definitely less high fructose corn syrup. Now would be an excellent time for everyone to try to get to their optimal weight.

Sure, not everyone will, but everyone who does will be better off, with less risk from Covid, but also less general health risks.

Last Edited: 7/29/2020 7:13:26 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

rpbobcat
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/29/2020 7:48:08 PM

The Optimist wrote:

I wish we would focus more on boosting people�s immune systems rather than going for a miracle cure in a vaccine. Lots of calls for �social distance� and �wear a mask� but not nearly enough �go exercise� and �eat healthy� IMO

I agree 100% about exercise and diet.

Aside from improving your overall health in general,Covid seems to hit overweight people particularly hard.

Exercise helps reduce stress and provides "structure".

Just wish someone would enlighten our Governor about the benefits of exercise.

He refuses to open gyms,fitness centers or indoor pools.

I'm a gym rat.
Over the years I've built a full gym in my garage.
A lot of people don't have that available.

Its really tough on people who swim.

My gym doesn't have A/C.
That makes lifting tough.
That's one of the big reasons I joined Gold's.

Same thing,trying to run when its in the 90's with high humidity isn't fun.

But the guilt I feel if I skip working out is a lot worse then the discomfort.

L.C.
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/29/2020 11:15:17 PM

I'm a swimmer. I swam probably a dozen times when the gyms re-opened, but I just don't feel comfortable doing it, so I'm going to stick to walking and biking for awhile.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

rpbobcat
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/30/2020 6:32:40 AM

L.C. wrote:

I'm a swimmer. I swam probably a dozen times when the gyms re-opened, but I just don't feel comfortable doing it, so I'm going to stick to walking and biking for awhile.

I would have thought that,when it comes to covid,with pool water being chlorinated,swimming would be one of the safer activities at a gym.

BillyTheCat
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/30/2020 8:16:17 AM

Former Bobcat assistant on Frank's first staff is in ICU with COVID. Not doing well. Reports were he was a non-masker. This stuff is serious folks.

rpbobcat
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/30/2020 9:20:02 AM

I just heard an interview with Dr.Fauci on the radio about PPE.

He emphasized the purpose of wearing a mask is to prevent the wearer from spreading the disease to others.
It has minimal benefit in preventing the wearer from getting infected.

Social Distancing works both ways.

Apparently, a lot people get covid by touching, or droplets hitting ,their face or eyes.
So,he also said he's now recommending people also wear goggles.

There's an interesting article in today's The Record by Jim Beckerman of USA Today about the physical and psychological affects (positive and negative) of wearing masks.

It won't link,but,if you google his name the article comes up on "muckrack"

L.C.
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/30/2020 9:38:50 AM

rpbobcat wrote:

...He emphasized the purpose of wearing a mask is to prevent the wearer from spreading the disease to others. It has minimal benefit in preventing the wearer from getting infected. ...

There isn't much dispute about that. What we know:
1. When a person sneezes or coughs with no mask, the virus particles travel about 12 feet. With a bandana, they travel 3 feet. With a multi-layer cotton mask, the particles travel 3 inches.
2. Masks (other than N95 or better) provide only a small protection for the person wearing the mask, but a significant protection of others from the person wearing the mask.
3. 20% of the cases are spread by superspreaders, who cause 80% of the cases, while 70% of infected people never spread it at all. The superspreaders tend to be people who don't realized they are sick because they have no symptoms, so they are out doing their regular activities, while the non-spreaders have symptoms and stay home. If the superspreaders had masks on, even though they didn't realize they were sick, they would not be able to effectively spread the virus.
4. Observational studies have shown that areas that have required masks have seen significant declines in the number of cases relative to areas that haven't. As a data point, last week my county instituted a mask order, but my state did not. This week, cases in my county have started dropping, while cases in the state continue to rise.
5. Masks can significantly reduce the spread when there is >80% compliance. When there is only 50% compliance, they do very little good. In between, there is a moderate benefit.

Given the real world data, that places that require masks have lower case rates than places that don't, there seems little reason to not require most people to wear a mask. Note, though, that there are certainly valid reasons why some people can not wear masks. Some people have lung issues that prevent it. Others have other reasons. I know someone who while growing up, was often raped by her cousin, who tied her down and gagged her, and she has a panic attack if her mouth is covered. When we see someone who is without a mask, we should keep in mind that there may be a reason they can not wear one.

Last Edited: 7/30/2020 9:40:43 AM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

rpbobcat
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/30/2020 10:28:06 AM

L.C. wrote:

Note, though, that there are certainly valid reasons why some people can not wear masks. Some people have lung issues that prevent it. Others have other reasons. I know someone who while growing up, was often raped by her cousin, who tied her down and gagged her, and she has a panic attack if her mouth is covered. When we see someone who is without a mask, we should keep in mind that there may be a reason they can not wear one.

I don't remember if I posted this here.

My wife has Asthma.

She can only wear a mask for a limited period of time before she has trouble breathing,even in A/C.

The other problem,her tolerance decreases the more she wears one throughout the day.

She's a nurse,so it can be a real problem when she is treating Covid patients and has to double mask (N95 and Surgical),especially in homes without A/C.

Usually,when she's having a problem breathing in a store, she'll just let it hang from 1 ear.

She just bought a face shield that goes under her chin.
That works better then a mask.
She can wear it in a store,,but they're not "certified" so she can't use it when she treats patients.

Given my wife's situation I never make any judgement when I see someone in a store without a mask.

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/30/2020 11:25:34 AM

rpbobcat wrote:

L.C. wrote:

I'm sure there are instances where it can't be avoided, but if people have valid medical (or psychological) reasons that prohibit them from wearing a mask, isn't the safest thing for them to avoid stores and other enclosed public spaces? A lot of businesses have adopted practices that accomodate this -- curbside pickup, delivery, etc.

rpbobcat
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/30/2020 11:35:13 AM

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:

In NJ, outdoor dining allows people to sit in a tent,be socially distant, and eat and drink without a mask.

You're also don't have to wear a mask outside if you can SD.

Don't see much difference walking through a store to pick something up.

When you say "safest thing",you have also have to take into account the mental health of people.

Social isolation can be as dangerous as covid.

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/30/2020 12:11:06 PM

rpbobcat wrote:

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:

There's a big difference between social isolation and asking somebody not to go into a store without a mask. The data shows the difference between indoor contact and outdoor, and the likelihood of spread in both cases.

As you mentioned, somebody unable to wear a mask can still eat at restaurants, be served at bars, and pick up items from a store. Asking them not to go inside isn't 'social isolation.'

L.C.
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/30/2020 12:34:30 PM

Yes, there are people who have valid reasons for not wearing a mask. Most of those people prefer not to be in stores, but sometimes they do need to go. The reason I brought up the people who can't wear a mask is because it is just as wrong to bully a person who is not wearing a mask as it is for a person who has no reason not to wear a mask to refuse to wear one. There are entirely too many physical confrontations over masks, and that includes both assaulting clerks or bus drivers who ask customers to wear masks, and assaulting people without masks.

We are all in this together. Let's find a way to make it work.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

rpbobcat
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/30/2020 12:46:19 PM

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:

You're entitled to your opinion on what would be considered "social isolation".

If you read the article I posted,a number of people feel just wearing or having to look at people wearing masks makes them feel socially isolated.

NJ is getting ready for indoor dining.
You would wear a mask until seated.
Then no mask until you leave.
The tables are 6' apart,but people entering or leaving can walk right along the tables.

Not really that different then going into a store,picking something up and leaving.

I can tell you at the market where my wife and I do a lot of our grocery shopping,there are a number of people,primarily elderly,who don't wear masks.

No one seems to have a problem with it,never heard anyone,including store employees say anything.

I've seen people get more grief for going the wrong way down one of the aisles.

Like I posted,my wife's Asthma affects her ability to wear a mask.
So it doesn't bother me when I see someone without one.

In fact,its none of my business.
If the store owner is O.K. with it,so be it.

Last Edited: 7/30/2020 12:47:34 PM by rpbobcat

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/30/2020 1:38:23 PM

rpbobcat wrote:

It's a bummer they feel this way. I'm not sure we're in a position to be able to worry about their feelings at the moment. Instead, I think we should be mandating masks in indoor public spaces to quash this thing as best we can.

rpbobcat wrote:

NJ is getting ready for indoor dining.
You would wear a mask until seated.
Then no mask until you leave.
The tables are 6' apart,but people entering or leaving can walk right along the tables.

Not really that different then going into a store,picking something up and leaving.

You're right, it's not different. But indoor dining's also been responsible for much of the spread in states like GA and FL. Morgan Stanley was able to connect data between in-restaurant credit card transactions and covid spread. I think this is a big risk at this stage.

rpbobcat wrote:

I can tell you at the market where my wife and I do a lot of our grocery shopping,there are a number of people,primarily elderly,who don't wear masks.

No one seems to have a problem with it,never heard anyone,including store employees say anything.

I believe epidemiologists have a problem with it though, right?

rpbobcat wrote:

Like I posted,my wife's Asthma affects her ability to wear a mask.
So it doesn't bother me when I see someone without one.

In fact,its none of my business.
If the store owner is O.K. with it,so be it.

This is a fairly narrow view of public health. You yourself pointed out this morning that wearing a mask provides protection to those around you, not to the wearer. So it kind of is your business and can become a pretty bleak business to be in really quickly.

L.C.
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/30/2020 2:02:39 PM

This is the study that showed 80% compliance would have a substantial effect, while 50% would do little:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.13553.pdf

A recent survey showed that 67% of Americans are now wearing masks. A survey in Late May-Early June showed that 50% of Americans were wearing masks, so 67% is a substantial improvement, yet Singapore has 92% mask compliance, and Hong Kong has 99%. We can do better than we are.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

rpbobcat
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/30/2020 2:41:07 PM

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:

rpbobcat wrote:

I believe epidemiologists have a problem with it though, right?

rpbobcat wrote:

1.You're right.
Why worry about the people who are feeling socially isolated because of masks ?
They don't count.

The statistics showing the increases in suicides,alcoholism or abuse (marital and children) because of the isolation of people felt,beginning with the lock downs aren't important,since we're dealing with the "greater good".

As I've posted,my wife is a visiting nurse.
A number of her patients,especially seniors, who have lost the most person to person contact, talk about how isolated they feel.

This is empirical,but the majority of people we've seen dining at restaurants are older.
(Younger people are still doing take out)

Some comments we've heard:

I needed to get out to see people again.

I wanted to be someplace where I could see people's faces.

2.You left out the other states like NY and Conn. where indoor dining hasn't resulted in any spikes in Covid.
NJ also opened Casinos.
People sitting there for hours is no different then indoor dining.
Again,no spikes.

The spikes in NJ have come from illegal house parties and similar gatherings.
Even our Governor had to admit these parties are going on because he's keeping bars, restaurants and other "gathering" places closed.

So people need a way to "blow off steam"

3.Again,their store,their rules.
If you're not comfortable seeing people shopping without masks,you don't
have to go in.
As far as epidemiologists,let them open a business and try to make a living,before saying anything but someone who is.

4.Yes,wearing a mask provides protection to those around you.
I wear one where I'm required to.
I follow the rules when it comes to masks.

But some people can't wear one.
That's a fact.
If they have a reason not to,fine.

The local news has reported a number of incidents where mask confrontations
have turned violent.

Apparently some people feel they have the right to ask someone why they're
not wearing a mask.
Legally,they don't.

If you think someone should be wearing a mask,call the police and let them handle it.

I don't know how much good a mask does or doesn't do.
But right now its the rule.

Although,as I posted,now Fauci wants googles to part of the rule too.

What's next ?
We all get to wear Tyvek suits ?

UpSan Bobcat
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/30/2020 2:50:43 PM

L.C. wrote:

I can say my small rural town probably had 10-20% compliance a month ago. Now with the mandates, it's probably 95% in most places, though there are certain places here that more or less tell people they won't enforce the rules, so compliance in those places is much lower.

Pataskala
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/30/2020 3:33:16 PM

UpSan Bobcat wrote:

L.C. wrote:

This morning's numbers show 13 red-level counties in Ohio, down from 23 a week ago. Athens County is now at orange level; earlier this week it was red level, bordering on purple (the highest level for covid infection). Masks are certainly helping. But rural areas -- where mask use is a little more lax -- are starting to show increases.

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

allen
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/30/2020 4:41:57 PM

rpbobcat wrote:

Wear the mask and a face shield.

Nobody despises to lose more than I do. That's got me into trouble over the years, but it also made a man of mediocre ability into a pretty good coach. Woody Hayes

allen
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RE: Another problem of Covid?

Posted: 7/30/2020 4:51:16 PM

rpbobcat wrote:

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:

rpbobcat wrote:

I believe epidemiologists have a problem with it though, right?

rpbobcat wrote:

New York and Connecticut have air filtration requirements, you have to account for the AC and how long droplets and aerosols stay in the air. We have to learn how to be uncomfortable now to be comfortable later. We have to stop being freedumb in our quest for freedom. People with asthma can wear mask, masks do not obstruct breathing. If you just consider other peoples sacrifice, wearing a mask is nothing. I lived in a tent in Afghanistan for 7 months others have done 15 months, McCain was a prisoner of war. Be a leader, wear a mask and practice good hygiene.

Nobody despises to lose more than I do. That's got me into trouble over the years, but it also made a man of mediocre ability into a pretty good coach. Woody Hayes

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