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Topic:  The Value of Five Star Players

Topic:  The Value of Five Star Players
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giacomo
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  Message Not Read  The Value of Five Star Players
   Posted: 4/17/2020 8:56:12 AM 
https://sports.yahoo.com/ohio-state-study-fivestar-prospe...

OSU does a study and says 650k. Now the D League is offering some players 500k. Changes coming.
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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Value of Five Star Players
   Posted: 4/17/2020 7:02:14 PM 
Good, let them go. Those kids in today's world of college basketball are not here for school, an education, or any other benefit that college athletics is to be about.


Serious question, can anyone here name the last 5 star recruit who actually graduated after spending 4 years at a school?

Last Edited: 4/17/2020 7:03:48 PM by BillyTheCat

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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Value of Five Star Players
   Posted: 4/18/2020 12:04:55 AM 
BillyTheCat wrote:
Good, let them go. Those kids in today's world of college basketball are not here for school, an education, or any other benefit that college athletics is to be about.


Serious question, can anyone here name the last 5 star recruit who actually graduated after spending 4 years at a school?


+1 Excellent points, BTC!


"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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giacomo
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Value of Five Star Players
   Posted: 4/18/2020 8:55:52 PM 
I agree. What may be coming is a severe reduction in coaches salaries, especially for the power five. If the best players are going to the D League or to an international team, there is no sense in paying Mike K 9M. Having the best coach and facilities was a form of non monetary compensation, which doesn’t appear to be needed in the future to lure the best players. It will get down to the 4 year player, as it was in the past
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GraffZ06
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Value of Five Star Players
   Posted: 4/20/2020 2:12:35 AM 
BillyTheCat wrote:
Serious question, can anyone here name the last 5 star recruit who actually graduated after spending 4 years at a school?


I was curious to the answer to this question, so I did some research and compiled a list of all 5-star rated recruits as rated by 247sports.com (yes results may slightly differ had I used ESPN/Rivals etc - this was just first and easiest to grab) from 2006-2019 - the "1 and done" era since the 2006 NBA CBA.

There were a total of 357 5-star recruits in this 14 year period (average of 25.5 per year).

-----

To answer the explicit question stated above - the most recent 5-star recruit(s) to either play all 4 seasons and run out of eligibility, or stay in school for 4 years until they graduated (but may have played less seasons due to injury/transfer) are:

From 2019:
1) Jalen Adams - UConn (recruiting class of 2015). Played 4 years at UConn.
2) Isaac Copeland - Nebraska (recruiting class of 2014). Played 2 years at Georgetown and 2 years at Nebraska. Sat out 1 year for transfer.

From 2018:
1) Theo Pinson - UNC (recruiting class of 2014). Played 4 years at UNC.
2) Marcus Lee - Cal (recruiting class of 2013). Played 3 years at Kentucky and 1 at Cal. Sat out 1 year for transfer.

From 2017:
1) Kasey Hill - Florida (recruiting class of 2013). Played 4 years at Florida.
2) Isaiah Hicks - UNC (recruiting class of 2013). Played 4 years at UNC.
3) Robert Hubbs - Tenn (recruiting class of 2013). Played 4 years at Tennessee.
4) Jabari Bird - Cal (recruiting class of 2013). Played 4 years at Cal.
5) Isaac Hamilton - UCLA (recruiting class of 2013). Played 3 years at UCLA after missing freshman year.
6) Austin Nichols - Virginia (recruiting class of 2013). Played 2 years at Memphis and 1 year at Virginia. Sat out 1 year for transfer.
7) Rodney Purvis - UConn (recruiting class of 2012). Played 1 year at NC State and 3 years at UConn. Sat out 1 year for transfer.
8) Rasheed Sulaimon - Maryland (recruiting class of 2012). Played 3 years at Duke and 1 year at Maryland. Sat out 1 year for transfer.
9) Danuel House - Texas A&M (recruiting class of 2012). Played 2 years at Houston and 2 years at Texas A&M. Sat out 1 year for transfer.

From 2016:
1) Alex Poythress - UK (recruiting class of 2012). Played 4 years at UK.
2) Kaleb Tarczewski - Arizona (recruiting class of 2012). Played 4 years at Arizona.
3) Kris Dunn - Providence (recruiting class of 2012). Played 4 years at Providence.
4) Cameron Ridley - Texas (recruiting class of 2012). Played 4 years at Texas.
5) Yogi Ferrell - Indiana (recruiting class of 2012). Played 4 years at Indiana.
6) DaJuan Coleman - Syracuse (recruiting class of 2012). Played 4 years at Syracuse.
7) Tony Parker - UCLA (recruiting class of 2012). Played 4 years at UCLA.
8) Devonta Pollard - Houston (recruiting class of 2012). Played 1 year at Alabama and 2 years at Houston. Sat out 1 year for transfer.
9) Kyle Wiltjer - Gonzaga (recruiting class of 2011). Played 2 years at Kentucky and 2 years at Gonzaga. Sat out 1 year for transfer.
10) Dorian Finney-Smith - Florida (recruiting class of 2011). Played 1 year at VaTech and 3 years at Florida. Sat out 1 year for transfer.

Those who we can add to the list pending for 2020:
1) Mustapha Heron - St.John's (recruiting class of 2016). Played 2 years at Auburn and 2 years at St.John's. Did not sit any years.
2) Andrew Jones - Texas (recruiting class of 2016). Played 4 years at Texas.
3) Carlton Bragg Jr - New Mexico (recruiting class of 2015). Played 2 years at Kansas and 2 years at UNM. Sat 1 year for transfer.
4) Chase Jeter - Arizona (recruiting class of 2015). Played 2 years at Duke and 2 years at Arizona. Sat 1 year for transfer.
5) Derryck Thornton - Boston Coll (recruiting class of 2015). Played 1 year at Duke, 2 years at USC and 1 year at BC. Sat 1 year for 1st transfer.
6) Dwayne Morgan - S Utah (recruiting class of 2014). Played 3 years at UNLV w/ a redshirt, and 3 years at S Utah with a redshirt. Did not sit any years.

-----

So we'll be at 29 over the most recent 5 year span.

-----

Looking only at players who were NOT on a college roster for the 2019-20 season - that left 310 of the 357 5-star recruits who have "completed" their college experience.

Of those players the average # of years a player spent at the college they initially signed with out of HS was: 1.85 years.

The average # of years a player spent at any/all colleges was: 1.97 years.

-----

If you look at the averages on a yearly basis from recruiting years 2006-2016 (2016 being the last year with 4 complete years of data).

Year : Avg # Years at 1st school / Avg # Years in college total

2006: 2.29 / 2.33
2007: 2.16 / 2.16
2008: 2.19 / 2.29
2009: 2.56 / 2.68
2010: 1.88 / 2.28
2011: 1.96 / 2.31
2012: 2.27 / 2.58
2013: 2.08 / 2.21
2014: 1.57 / 1.65
2015: 1.64 / 1.68
2016: 1.31 / 1.31

If you plot those values and fit a linear regression trend line (really wish I could embed images here :( ) - you get a slope of -0.086 and -0.087 respectively. Which means on average guys are spending ~.09 years less in school per year, or about 0.9 years per decade. Which jives considering in the 11 years above we went from basically 2.3 years to 1.3 years on average - thus a loss of a year per decade.

-----

If you want raw percentages out of 310 recruits who did not participate in 2019-20 season (out of 357 total).

players with 0 years: 14/310 = 4.52% (went overseas or sat out etc.)
players with 1 years: 131/310 = 42.26% (the 1-and-done's)
players with 2 years: 69/310 = 22.26%
players with 3 years: 44/310 = 14.19%
players with 4+ years: 52/310 = 16.77%





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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Value of Five Star Players
   Posted: 4/20/2020 4:45:13 AM 
GraffZ06 wrote:
BillyTheCat wrote:
Serious question, can anyone here name the last 5 star recruit who actually graduated after spending 4 years at a school?


I was curious to the answer to this question, so I did some research and compiled a list of all 5-star rated recruits as rated by 247sports.com (yes results may slightly differ had I used ESPN/Rivals etc - this was just first and easiest to grab) from 2006-2019 - the "1 and done" era since the 2006 NBA CBA.

There were a total of 357 5-star recruits in this 14 year period (average of 25.5 per year).

-----

To answer the explicit question stated above - the most recent 5-star recruit(s) to either play all 4 seasons and run out of eligibility, or stay in school for 4 years until they graduated (but may have played less seasons due to injury/transfer) are:

From 2019:
1) Jalen Adams - UConn (recruiting class of 2015). Played 4 years at UConn.
2) Isaac Copeland - Nebraska (recruiting class of 2014). Played 2 years at Georgetown and 2 years at Nebraska. Sat out 1 year for transfer.

From 2018:
1) Theo Pinson - UNC (recruiting class of 2014). Played 4 years at UNC.
2) Marcus Lee - Cal (recruiting class of 2013). Played 3 years at Kentucky and 1 at Cal. Sat out 1 year for transfer.

From 2017:
1) Kasey Hill - Florida (recruiting class of 2013). Played 4 years at Florida.
2) Isaiah Hicks - UNC (recruiting class of 2013). Played 4 years at UNC.
3) Robert Hubbs - Tenn (recruiting class of 2013). Played 4 years at Tennessee.
4) Jabari Bird - Cal (recruiting class of 2013). Played 4 years at Cal.
5) Isaac Hamilton - UCLA (recruiting class of 2013). Played 3 years at UCLA after missing freshman year.
6) Austin Nichols - Virginia (recruiting class of 2013). Played 2 years at Memphis and 1 year at Virginia. Sat out 1 year for transfer.
7) Rodney Purvis - UConn (recruiting class of 2012). Played 1 year at NC State and 3 years at UConn. Sat out 1 year for transfer.
8) Rasheed Sulaimon - Maryland (recruiting class of 2012). Played 3 years at Duke and 1 year at Maryland. Sat out 1 year for transfer.
9) Danuel House - Texas A&M (recruiting class of 2012). Played 2 years at Houston and 2 years at Texas A&M. Sat out 1 year for transfer.

From 2016:
1) Alex Poythress - UK (recruiting class of 2012). Played 4 years at UK.
2) Kaleb Tarczewski - Arizona (recruiting class of 2012). Played 4 years at Arizona.
3) Kris Dunn - Providence (recruiting class of 2012). Played 4 years at Providence.
4) Cameron Ridley - Texas (recruiting class of 2012). Played 4 years at Texas.
5) Yogi Ferrell - Indiana (recruiting class of 2012). Played 4 years at Indiana.
6) DaJuan Coleman - Syracuse (recruiting class of 2012). Played 4 years at Syracuse.
7) Tony Parker - UCLA (recruiting class of 2012). Played 4 years at UCLA.
8) Devonta Pollard - Houston (recruiting class of 2012). Played 1 year at Alabama and 2 years at Houston. Sat out 1 year for transfer.
9) Kyle Wiltjer - Gonzaga (recruiting class of 2011). Played 2 years at Kentucky and 2 years at Gonzaga. Sat out 1 year for transfer.
10) Dorian Finney-Smith - Florida (recruiting class of 2011). Played 1 year at VaTech and 3 years at Florida. Sat out 1 year for transfer.

Those who we can add to the list pending for 2020:
1) Mustapha Heron - St.John's (recruiting class of 2016). Played 2 years at Auburn and 2 years at St.John's. Did not sit any years.
2) Andrew Jones - Texas (recruiting class of 2016). Played 4 years at Texas.
3) Carlton Bragg Jr - New Mexico (recruiting class of 2015). Played 2 years at Kansas and 2 years at UNM. Sat 1 year for transfer.
4) Chase Jeter - Arizona (recruiting class of 2015). Played 2 years at Duke and 2 years at Arizona. Sat 1 year for transfer.
5) Derryck Thornton - Boston Coll (recruiting class of 2015). Played 1 year at Duke, 2 years at USC and 1 year at BC. Sat 1 year for 1st transfer.
6) Dwayne Morgan - S Utah (recruiting class of 2014). Played 3 years at UNLV w/ a redshirt, and 3 years at S Utah with a redshirt. Did not sit any years.

-----

So we'll be at 29 over the most recent 5 year span.

-----

Looking only at players who were NOT on a college roster for the 2019-20 season - that left 310 of the 357 5-star recruits who have "completed" their college experience.

Of those players the average # of years a player spent at the college they initially signed with out of HS was: 1.85 years.

The average # of years a player spent at any/all colleges was: 1.97 years.

-----

If you look at the averages on a yearly basis from recruiting years 2006-2016 (2016 being the last year with 4 complete years of data).

Year : Avg # Years at 1st school / Avg # Years in college total

2006: 2.29 / 2.33
2007: 2.16 / 2.16
2008: 2.19 / 2.29
2009: 2.56 / 2.68
2010: 1.88 / 2.28
2011: 1.96 / 2.31
2012: 2.27 / 2.58
2013: 2.08 / 2.21
2014: 1.57 / 1.65
2015: 1.64 / 1.68
2016: 1.31 / 1.31

If you plot those values and fit a linear regression trend line (really wish I could embed images here :( ) - you get a slope of -0.086 and -0.087 respectively. Which means on average guys are spending ~.09 years less in school per year, or about 0.9 years per decade. Which jives considering in the 11 years above we went from basically 2.3 years to 1.3 years on average - thus a loss of a year per decade.

-----

If you want raw percentages out of 310 recruits who did not participate in 2019-20 season (out of 357 total).

players with 0 years: 14/310 = 4.52% (went overseas or sat out etc.)
players with 1 years: 131/310 = 42.26% (the 1-and-done's)
players with 2 years: 69/310 = 22.26%
players with 3 years: 44/310 = 14.19%
players with 4+ years: 52/310 = 16.77%







Good stuff, and the real interesting part is the rapid decline over the past few years in that figure. Last 2 years, you note a whopping 4 total.


As for posters just automatically thinking these contracts will be drastically reduced, yeah not seeing it. Not yet, and not for the big dogs and blue bloods.
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giacomo
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Value of Five Star Players
   Posted: 4/22/2020 4:02:17 PM 
Don't be too sure about that. If enrollments are down and budgets are being slashed, it won't be too PC to be paying coaches millions. This is just one angle.
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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Value of Five Star Players
   Posted: 4/22/2020 11:28:28 PM 
giacomo wrote:
Don't be too sure about that. If enrollments are down and budgets are being slashed, it won't be too PC to be paying coaches millions. This is just one angle.


You miss the fact that the real big boys are paid mostly from outside groups anywhpay and not with state dollars.
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OU_Country
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Location: On US33 between Athens and Madison Co., OH
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Value of Five Star Players
   Posted: 4/23/2020 10:34:45 AM 
BillyTheCat wrote:
giacomo wrote:
Don't be too sure about that. If enrollments are down and budgets are being slashed, it won't be too PC to be paying coaches millions. This is just one angle.


You miss the fact that the real big boys are paid mostly from outside groups anywhpay and not with state dollars.


And it's possible that extends farther down than "real big boys". Xavier has been paying their head hoops coach from outside university dollars, at least partially, for some time if I'm not mistaken.
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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Value of Five Star Players
   Posted: 4/24/2020 7:43:20 AM 
OU_Country wrote:
BillyTheCat wrote:
giacomo wrote:
Don't be too sure about that. If enrollments are down and budgets are being slashed, it won't be too PC to be paying coaches millions. This is just one angle.


You miss the fact that the real big boys are paid mostly from outside groups anywhpay and not with state dollars.


And it's possible that extends farther down than "real big boys". Xavier has been paying their head hoops coach from outside university dollars, at least partially, for some time if I'm not mistaken.


There Head Coaching position is actually an endowment.
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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Value of Five Star Players
   Posted: 4/24/2020 3:57:13 PM 
BillyTheCat wrote:
OU_Country wrote:
BillyTheCat wrote:
giacomo wrote:
Don't be too sure about that. If enrollments are down and budgets are being slashed, it won't be too PC to be paying coaches millions. This is just one angle.


You miss the fact that the real big boys are paid mostly from outside groups anywhpay and not with state dollars.


And it's possible that extends farther down than "real big boys". Xavier has been paying their head hoops coach from outside university dollars, at least partially, for some time if I'm not mistaken.


There Head Coaching position is actually an endowment.


The football coach at Miami is also holds the Bo Schembechler chair of head coaching. I'm not sure the level of the endowment, but I believe it pays a significant portion, if not all, of the Martin's salary.


"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Value of Five Star Players
   Posted: 4/25/2020 1:26:16 PM 
OhioCatFan wrote:
BillyTheCat wrote:
OU_Country wrote:
BillyTheCat wrote:
giacomo wrote:
Don't be too sure about that. If enrollments are down and budgets are being slashed, it won't be too PC to be paying coaches millions. This is just one angle.


You miss the fact that the real big boys are paid mostly from outside groups anywhpay and not with state dollars.


And it's possible that extends farther down than "real big boys". Xavier has been paying their head hoops coach from outside university dollars, at least partially, for some time if I'm not mistaken.


There Head Coaching position is actually an endowment.


The football coach at Miami is also holds the Bo Schembechler chair of head coaching. I'm not sure the level of the endowment, but I believe it pays a significant portion, if not all, of the Martin's salary.


Maybe we can endow our head coaching positions after we close the deal on naming rights to Peden and the Convo?
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OhioCatFan
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Location: Athens, OH
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Value of Five Star Players
   Posted: 4/25/2020 2:22:56 PM 
BillyTheCat wrote:
OhioCatFan wrote:
BillyTheCat wrote:
OU_Country wrote:
BillyTheCat wrote:
giacomo wrote:
Don't be too sure about that. If enrollments are down and budgets are being slashed, it won't be too PC to be paying coaches millions. This is just one angle.


You miss the fact that the real big boys are paid mostly from outside groups anywhpay and not with state dollars.


And it's possible that extends farther down than "real big boys". Xavier has been paying their head hoops coach from outside university dollars, at least partially, for some time if I'm not mistaken.


There Head Coaching position is actually an endowment.


The football coach at Miami is also holds the Bo Schembechler chair of head coaching. I'm not sure the level of the endowment, but I believe it pays a significant portion, if not all, of the Martin's salary.


Maybe we can endow our head coaching positions after we close the deal on naming rights to Peden and the Convo?


+1 Yes, and I believe the deep pocket givers needed for that are right here on BA, given the amount of blustery rhetoric and advice that we give the university administration on a daily basis.


"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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