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Topic:  Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State

Topic:  Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
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Ted Thompson
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  Message Not Read  Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/1/2012 9:23:26 AM 
Use this thread to talk about anything game-related. For away games, we'll have a separate travel thread.

Date: September 1st, 2012  12:00 PM

Opponent: Penn St.  (0-0)

Site: Beaver Stadium

TV: ESPN

Radio:  Ohio Radio

Webcast: ESPN3

Penn State's media guideroster and statistics.

Ohio Game Notes

Penn St. Game Notes

Fan sites: PSU Playbook (Scout)    Blue White Illustrated (Rivals)

Ohio Injury List (status is my interpretation based upon media reports):

LB Joe Stefanski - Out (disciplinary)
RB Daz Patterson - Out (disciplinary)
SS Xavier Hughes - Out (disciplinary)
DE Nic Barber - Out (shoulder)
CB  Travis Carrie - Out for season (shoulder)
WR Sebastian Smith - Out for season (broken leg)

Last Edited: 8/31/2012 11:18:24 AM by Ted Thompson


Follow Ohio Football recruiting on the BobcatAttack.com football recruiting database.

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Mike Bundt WHIZ
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/1/2012 1:40:44 PM 
I guess I'll be the first one to post. Exactly one month away and I'm already pumped for this game.

I think we have a chance to win but there is no way on earth that I'll guarantee a victory. Despite all the crap that went down at Penn State, they still have some very good talent and were very good last year.

I'm hoping it's a close game with the Bobcats pulling off the victory.

Btw, a kid that went to my HS, Akeel Lynch will be playing his first game as a Freshman RB for Penn State.

Last Edited: 8/1/2012 1:41:22 PM by Mike Bundt WHIZ

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Bobcatbob
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/1/2012 3:40:09 PM 
WOO HOO!  The Official Game Thread is back.  Now it's, well, Official.

GO 'CATS!
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71 BOBCAT
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/1/2012 4:44:50 PM 
I will go out on a limb on this progostication.
THE SPREAD
PSU - 18





GO BOBCATS
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mf279801
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/1/2012 4:50:08 PM 
71 BOBCAT wrote:
I will go out on a limb on this progostication.
THE SPREAD
PSU - 18


I'm working from memory here, but last night VegasSportsbook.com (i think that was the site, I can't access it from work) had the opening line at PSU-15.5, shifting to PSU-10.5 or -11.5 after the Silas Redd news became official.

Edit: VegasInsider.com, went from PSU-15.5 to PSU-11.5 over the course of 5 hours yesterday.

Last Edited: 8/1/2012 9:11:12 PM by mf279801

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Deciduous Forest Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/1/2012 8:47:05 PM 
This spread will be single digits by gameday.
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LoganElm_grad09
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/2/2012 11:07:09 AM 
Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:
This spread will be single digits by gameday.


Vegas only thinks we'll beat Penn State by less than 10? 

Last years team went 9-4, and only won by more than a couple scores against Indiana State and Eastern Michigan.  They struggled to put points up on the board against Big Ten teams and heck only 14 on Huston and Temple.  They are losing people to transfer, implimenting a new system, and are going into a situation that's only getting worse by the day.  The biggest problem with their transfers was losing Redd, as they were already a mediocre passing team.

If our defense plays to their capabilities (and probably a little farther) I don't think they put any more than 21 points on us, if that.  The big question will be if we can score on them.  If our recievers step up, we'll be in business.
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71 BOBCAT
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/3/2012 12:04:45 PM 
USA Today just posted the line on the game.


PSU -7




GO BOBCATS
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Tyler
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/4/2012 11:54:05 PM 
71 BOBCAT wrote:
USA Today just posted the line on the game.


PSU -7




GO BOBCATS


With Brown transferring to the impostor OU, I expect this line to swing even more in our direction. I wouldn't be surprised if it was PSU -4 come September 1

EDIT: Most Vegas books have it at -6.5

Last Edited: 8/5/2012 12:04:02 AM by Tyler

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71 BOBCAT
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/6/2012 5:46:37 PM 
Spread down to 6.5







GO BOBCATS

Last Edited: 8/6/2012 5:47:00 PM by 71 BOBCAT

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71 BOBCAT
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/7/2012 7:19:35 AM 
Make that 6 today






GO BOBCATS
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/7/2012 2:31:01 PM 
71 BOBCAT wrote:
Make that 6 today

To put that in perspective, some other current point spreads:
Akron +23.5 versus Central Florida
Mass +25 at U.Conn
Boise State +7 at Michigan State
Miami +22.5 at Ohio State
WMU +9 at Illinois
Toledo +10.5 at Arizona

With a spread of only 6, if the game were being held at Peden, it would be a pick-em.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Tyler
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/7/2012 3:11:16 PM 
L.C. wrote:
71 BOBCAT wrote:
Make that 6 today

To put that in perspective, some other current point spreads:
Akron +23.5 versus Central Florida
Mass +25 at U.Conn
Boise State +7 at Michigan State
Miami +22.5 at Ohio State
WMU +9 at Illinois
Toledo +10.5 at Arizona

With a spread of only 6, if the game were being held at Peden, it would be a pick-em.


i thought the home team got 3 points, not 6. So if it was at Peden, we'd be +3.

Anyway, pretty cool to see Vegas thinking our game will be closer than those other ones.
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C Money
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/7/2012 3:51:49 PM 
TheRealOHIO wrote:
i thought the home team got 3 points, not 6. So if it was at Peden, we'd be +3.



I think the logic is that it would be +3 at a neutral site, so it's +6 at Penn State and a pick 'em at Peden.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/7/2012 4:16:44 PM 
Exactly, C. Money. At this point the gamblers are saying the teams are pretty even. It should be an interesting game, not only because of the abilities of the teams, but also the emotions.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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BurninateTheMAC
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/11/2012 12:55:23 PM 
Take the under.

Penn State is almost guaranteed to have a mess on offense. New system, vastly different from the old one, with Matt McGloin at QB, losing their top RB and WR (a position where they weren't that good to start with) and one of the most inexperienced offensive lines in the country. Cover their TEs, you figure a guy that was with the Patriots is going to favor going to them, especially since theirs are pretty good.

Defensively they have a ton of experience, but their LBs and CBs are going to be asked to do things they didn't do very often in the old Paterno 3-deep scheme. Spread them out, make their LBs cover slot guys and backs in space, and make their corners prove they can disrupt routes and take the inside release away from wideouts. Against the run, their front seven figures to be pretty good -- lot of experience there.

When they have the ball, make their inexperienced line diagnose multiple looks and blitz packages, and force McGloin to make decisions. He doesnt' have the arm to make a bad decision look good nor does Penn State have the wideouts to give him a lot of easy completions. May not be a lot of chance to blitz if Penn State runs a lot of 2-TE formations. But when there's 2 TEs there will usually be only 1 RB so either there's no backfield blitz pickup or there's no backfield receiver. Jamming the TEs and getting pressure basically reduces their options to the outside receivers if Ohio's experienced DL can get through PSU's green OL and heat up McGloin.

Weller and Venham could be among the most important players on the field.

Statistically, if the number gets to 3 or below, the chances of an outright upset are pretty close to 50-50. Not much difference between PK and a 3 in that regard.

Last Edited: 8/11/2012 12:58:23 PM by BurninateTheMAC


"I said consummate V's! Consummate!"

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davepi2
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/12/2012 7:21:56 PM 
now if I was a gambling man not only would I take Ohio but that Western point spread looks attractive also.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/13/2012 12:14:36 PM 
As we think about this game, and we think about some of the issues surrounding the game, it's interesting to go back and compare recruiting classes. Using one year as an example, here's the 2010 Penn State class, featuring 6.0 rated Silas Redd. The average rating for Penn State that year was 5.8, with only 2 players rated under 5.7. By contrast, here's the 2010 Ohio class, which features only one player rated over 5.4, that being Omar Leftwich. While Silas Redd is gone, so is Omar Leftwich.

It's worth remembering that even with a few players transferring, virtually every player Penn State will put on the field was rated higher coming out of high school than the player Ohio will start at the same position. While a rating here or there may be wrong, they aren't all wrong. Therefore, Penn State will still have plenty of talent.  If Ohio is going to win, it will be because the players want it more, because they have worked harder, because they are well coached, because have a sound scheme, and because they play together as a team. Yes, they will probably also need the ball to bounce right, sometimes, too.

Don't get me wrong, I think Ohio has a chance here, but Penn State still has plenty of athletes, and they will come out and play football. As good as we think this Ohio team has the potential of being, the country will still consider it a major upset if Ohio wins.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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UpSan Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/13/2012 12:30:02 PM 
I think a big advantage Ohio likely will have over Penn State is experience.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/13/2012 12:50:51 PM 
UpSan Bobcat wrote:
I think a big advantage Ohio likely will have over Penn State is experience.

A very good point. There will be about 9 Senior starters on defense, and even on offense, there is a lot of experience. One big hope that I have for this year is that they are able to pull away from some teams in the first half, and that the second team gets a lot of reps.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/13/2012 9:46:41 PM 
I decided that the recruiting numbers were way out of date as a way of comparing individual talent, so I looked at nfldraftscout.com as a more current indicator of talent. In some positions, Ohio matches up pretty well, in others, not so well:
Offensive line - fairly even. At center, Allen is 34/88, there center Stankiewitch is higher, at 10/88. at OG, Lechner is 41/174 for 2014, and they have Gress and Urshel at 35/174 and 51/174. Meanwhile Herman is 34/203 and Carlotta is 67/203, while their Mangiro is 23/139. At OT, they have Farrell at 66/150 and Cadogan at 20/144, which Prior and McGrath aren't rated yet. I think both will be rated well when they do get rated, however.
TE - Advantage Ohio - Thompson is 29/92, and they do not have one that is rated
QB - Advantage Ohio - tettleton is 34/137, while McGloin is 46/134
FB - advantage PSU - thye have 2 very good ones - Zwinek at 4/33 and Zordich at 7/77, while Ohio doesn't use one
RB -probably even - With Redd gone, they have Belton at 39/167 and dukes at 52/172. None of Ohio's RB's are rated, but when they do get rated, they will probably be in about that range.
WR - Probably even - Foster is 54/277 while Dovell is 102/277, while they have Smith at 74/372 and Kersey at 82/277

Overall the offensive talent is really pretty close.

Defensive Tackle - Advantage PSU - Hunyh rates well at 36/193, while Jones isn't rated. They have HIll at 6/193 and James at 58/193
DE - Advantage PSU - Scott rates 50/205, while Hastings isn't rated. They have Massaro at 17/205 and Stanley at 53/205
OLB - Advantage PSU - Lewis ranks 65/232, while Woseley isn't ranked. They have Hodges at 3/232, Hull at 11/179.
ILB - Advantage PSU - Ohio has none rated. They have Mauti at 7/129 and Carson at 18/92. By comparison Keller was 13/101
CB - Even - Carrie rates 25/218, and no one else is rated, while Thomas is 26/216 and Morris is 78/218
S - Slight advantage to PSU - Ohio has no one rated, though Moore and Hughes are good. They have Willis at 9/104, and the other safety is not rated.

Judging from these ratings, Penn State lives up to their reputation of "Linebacker U", The defenses are not that different except at linebacker and DE.

On the whole, Penn State does seem to have the higher talent level, but not by as much as you might think. Penn State will have a very good defense, particularly at LB.Thinking about the matchups:
1. The new offensive tackles are going to face some very good DE's, not the easiest job for a first start. This matchup will be a key to the game. If they can't get Tettleton some time, it will be a very long game.
2. With such good linebackers, and a good defensive line, rushing yards will be hard to come by. Ohio's spread package will be an advantage here, as they may need to replace one of their outstanding OLB's with a not as good corner.. If Tettleton can get time to throw, and that's a big if, then moving the ball by air may be possible, and may keep them off balance enough that Ohio can get a few rushing yards, too.
3. Ohio's defense will match up OK with Penn State's offense. With big fullbacks and RB's coming at you, in old style football, it will be very different than the spread offenses Ohio sees in the MAC - depending on what O'Brien does, of course. It will sure be a good test for Jones/Huynh/Crutcher up front, and the various middle linebackers. I'd feel better about this game if Kellter were back one more year.

I doubt Ohio scores more that 1-2 TDs, plus some field goals. They are probably going to have to hold Penn State under 20 to win.

Last Edited: 8/13/2012 9:51:09 PM by L.C.


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Bcat2
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/13/2012 11:41:18 PM 
L.C. wrote:
I decided that the recruiting numbers were way out of date as a way of comparing individual talent, so I looked at nfldraftscout.com as a more current indicator of talent. In some positions, Ohio matches up pretty well, in others, not so well:
Offensive line - fairly even. At center, Allen is 34/88, there center Stankiewitch is higher, at 10/88. at OG, Lechner is 41/174 for 2014, and they have Gress and Urshel at 35/174 and 51/174. Meanwhile Herman is 34/203 and Carlotta is 67/203, while their Mangiro is 23/139. At OT, they have Farrell at 66/150 and Cadogan at 20/144, which Prior and McGrath aren't rated yet. I think both will be rated well when they do get rated, however.
TE - Advantage Ohio - Thompson is 29/92, and they do not have one that is rated
QB - Advantage Ohio - tettleton is 34/137, while McGloin is 46/134
FB - advantage PSU - thye have 2 very good ones - Zwinek at 4/33 and Zordich at 7/77, while Ohio doesn't use one
RB -probably even - With Redd gone, they have Belton at 39/167 and dukes at 52/172. None of Ohio's RB's are rated, but when they do get rated, they will probably be in about that range.
WR - Probably even - Foster is 54/277 while Dovell is 102/277, while they have Smith at 74/372 and Kersey at 82/277

Overall the offensive talent is really pretty close.

Defensive Tackle - Advantage PSU - Hunyh rates well at 36/193, while Jones isn't rated. They have HIll at 6/193 and James at 58/193
DE - Advantage PSU - Scott rates 50/205, while Hastings isn't rated. They have Massaro at 17/205 and Stanley at 53/205
OLB - Advantage PSU - Lewis ranks 65/232, while Woseley isn't ranked. They have Hodges at 3/232, Hull at 11/179.
ILB - Advantage PSU - Ohio has none rated. They have Mauti at 7/129 and Carson at 18/92. By comparison Keller was 13/101
CB - Even - Carrie rates 25/218, and no one else is rated, while Thomas is 26/216 and Morris is 78/218
S - Slight advantage to PSU - Ohio has no one rated, though Moore and Hughes are good. They have Willis at 9/104, and the other safety is not rated.

Judging from these ratings, Penn State lives up to their reputation of "Linebacker U", The defenses are not that different except at linebacker and DE.

On the whole, Penn State does seem to have the higher talent level, but not by as much as you might think. Penn State will have a very good defense, particularly at LB.Thinking about the matchups:
1. The new offensive tackles are going to face some very good DE's, not the easiest job for a first start. This matchup will be a key to the game. If they can't get Tettleton some time, it will be a very long game.
2. With such good linebackers, and a good defensive line, rushing yards will be hard to come by. Ohio's spread package will be an advantage here, as they may need to replace one of their outstanding OLB's with a not as good corner.. If Tettleton can get time to throw, and that's a big if, then moving the ball by air may be possible, and may keep them off balance enough that Ohio can get a few rushing yards, too.
3. Ohio's defense will match up OK with Penn State's offense. With big fullbacks and RB's coming at you, in old style football, it will be very different than the spread offenses Ohio sees in the MAC - depending on what O'Brien does, of course. It will sure be a good test for Jones/Huynh/Crutcher up front, and the various middle linebackers. I'd feel better about this game if Kellter were back one more year.

I doubt Ohio scores more that 1-2 TDs, plus some field goals. They are probably going to have to hold Penn State under 20 to win.



PSU inflated, Ohio undervalued. This to be settled on the field.  Ohio is coach O's worst  nightemare for an opener.  Years ago Ohio would have hoped to survive this game healthy.  This year the Bobcats look to be the more physical team.  Herman, Carlotta, Letchner, Thompson, Robach, Blankenship & Boykin will give no quarter. Special team big plays for field position will be key. JMHO.

Last Edited: 8/13/2012 11:43:04 PM by Bcat2


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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/14/2012 8:52:41 AM 
To me the big thing is that this is will be Penn State's first game with a new system. Think back to 2005 - Ohio's defense picked up the new defense a lot faster than the offense did, which is normal. The same was true for Pitt. The result was a low scoring game that was up for grabs.

I think think this game will be similarly low scoring. I expect Penn State's defense will be ahead of their offense. In addition, based on what I saw, that seems to be where their talent is concentrated.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Mike Coleman
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/14/2012 9:38:33 AM 
LC...in your rankings CB Thomas and WR Smith are no longer on Penn State. I think we'll be seeing them in Herd green this year. They were kicked off prior to sanctions but are apparently still allowed to play this year.

Last Edited: 8/14/2012 9:40:54 AM by Mike Coleman

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Deciduous Forest Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 1 Thread: Penn State
   Posted: 8/14/2012 9:44:47 AM 
L.C. wrote:
To me the big thing is that this is will be Penn State's first game with a new system. Think back to 2005 - Ohio's defense picked up the new defense a lot faster than the offense did, which is normal. The same was true for Pitt. The result was a low scoring game that was up for grabs.

I think think this game will be similarly low scoring. I expect Penn State's defense will be ahead of their offense. In addition, based on what I saw, that seems to be where their talent is concentrated.


Remember that Ohio and Pitt just plain didn't have very good offenses that year. Also remember that was game 2. Both defenses were torched in their openers, Pitt by ND and Ohio by Northwestern.
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