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Topic:  Mathematics of Unbeaten Season

Topic:  Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 9/6/2012 5:40:48 PM 
It seems clear that the Bobcats will be favored in each remaining game. On the other hand, we all know that the  there is no game that the Bobcats could not lose. Stuff happens, sometimes. So, what are the odds of an undefeated season? Just putting in some percentages, and not making any claim that these are actually correct, let's do some math. If we guess that the probability that the Bobcats win a specific game is:

NMSU 90%
@Marshall 60%
Norfolk State 98%
@U. Mass 70%
Buffalo 90%
Akron 98%
@Miami 70%
EMU 90%
BGSU 80%
@Ball State 70%
@Kent 65%

Add that up, there is a 7.5% chance of going undefeated. There is also a 20% chance of losing only 1 game. I didn't do the math, but the most likely alternative is probably two losses. You can dispute the odds I picked for each game, if you like, but the point is, there is still a very low chance of being undefeated. The only way to get there is to go 1-0 eleven more times. Here's a website that assigned different odds before the season for each win, and concluded that 10-2 was the most likely outcome. That's why they Bobcats have to come out ready to play each and every game.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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The Optimist
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  Message Not Read  RE: Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 9/6/2012 6:24:28 PM 
Your last sentence sums it up.  A lot of good teams don't go undefeated.  It just isn't an easy thing to do.  Fortunately I not only have green shades, but also lots of green beer.  

I've seen crazier things happen.

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D.A.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 9/6/2012 7:49:12 PM 
L.C. wrote:
It seems clear that the Bobcats will be favored in each remaining game. On the other hand, we all know that the  there is no game that the Bobcats could not lose. Stuff happens, sometimes. So, what are the odds of an undefeated season? Just putting in some percentages, and not making any claim that these are actually correct, let's do some math. If we guess that the probability that the Bobcats win a specific game is:

NMSU 90%
@Marshall 60%
Norfolk State 98%
@U. Mass 70%
Buffalo 90%
Akron 98%
@Miami 70%
EMU 90%
BGSU 80%
@Ball State 70%
@Kent 65%

Add that up, there is a 7.5% chance of going undefeated. There is also a 20% chance of losing only 1 game. I didn't do the math, but the most likely alternative is probably two losses. You can dispute the odds I picked for each game, if you like, but the point is, there is still a very low chance of being undefeated. The only way to get there is to go 1-0 eleven more times. Here's a website that assigned different odds before the season for each win, and concluded that 10-2 was the most likely outcome. That's why they Bobcats have to come out ready to play each and every game.



So you're saying there's a chance...

The Few, The Proud, The Bobcats!

And for the record, I hate tOSU, and Ricordati and Torgerson are DB's.

"This isn't just another walkover from the MAC." Kirk Herbstreit, another DB, on College Football Gameday
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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 9/6/2012 8:04:29 PM 
Well, my very first season of serious Bobcat fandom was 1960, when I was a junior in high school.  I attended every home game and listened to every away game on the radio.  We were undefeated -- 10-0.  It's now 52 years later.  As someone once said, "it's time"! 

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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oucs 1986
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  Message Not Read  RE: Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 9/6/2012 8:08:47 PM 
D.A. wrote:

So you're saying there's a chance...


Dude! I LOL'ed and spit my coke all over!

Go Bobcats!
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bobcat695
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  Message Not Read  RE: Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 9/6/2012 8:42:04 PM 
More like one in a million.

"You can't un-fist a fist pump." - Saul Phillips 1/24/15

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oucs 1986
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  Message Not Read  RE: Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 9/6/2012 9:31:25 PM 
acually more like 2%

Go Bobcats!
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JSF
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  Message Not Read  RE: Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 9/6/2012 10:22:20 PM 
At this point, 7.5% is actually really good.

"Loyalty to a hometown or city is fleeting and interchangeable, but college is a stamp of identity."- Kyle Whelliston, One Beautiful Season.

My blog about depression and mental illness: https://bit.ly/3buGXH8

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Bobcatbob
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  Message Not Read  RE: Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 9/7/2012 8:31:27 AM 
Or, our chances are 100% better than they would have been had we lost to Penn State.
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OUVan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 9/7/2012 11:21:14 AM 
What were the odds on the Buffalo and Ball State games last year?
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Bobcat110
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  Message Not Read  RE: Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 9/7/2012 11:58:31 AM 
L.C. wrote:
Here's a website that assigned different odds before the season for each win, and concluded that 10-2 was the most likely outcome. That's why they Bobcats have to come out ready to play each and every game.



However, in that conclusion, they expected Penn State to be one of the two losses.  So, now the most likely outcome is 11-1 :-).  
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 9/7/2012 1:26:15 PM 
Whether the odds are 1% or 10% depends on your assumptions about the odds for each individual game. I don't claim that my 7% is the "right" number, just that the range is representative. The point is that even when you are favored in all games, the odds are still against winning them all. As pointed out above, games like last year's Buffalo and Ball State do happen, and do happen regularly. In fact, if the odds are losing to Ball State are, say, 30%, then the odds of losing that one game are perhaps 4 times greater than the odds of going undefeated.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Nash'Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 9/7/2012 3:18:43 PM 
OhioCatFan wrote:
Well, my very first season of serious Bobcat fandom was 1960, when I was a junior in high school.  I attended every home game and listened to every away game on the radio.  We were undefeated -- 10-0.  It's now 52 years later.  As someone once said, "it's time"! 


AH-HA! I see what you did there. Clever, indeed!

WE ARE OHIO
-Mike C.
Class of 2010
Media Arts & Studies - Music Production
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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 9/7/2012 5:04:14 PM 
NashvilleBobcat wrote:
OhioCatFan wrote:
Well, my very first season of serious Bobcat fandom was 1960, when I was a junior in high school.  I attended every home game and listened to every away game on the radio.  We were undefeated -- 10-0.  It's now 52 years later.  As someone once said, "it's time"! 


AH-HA! I see what you did there. Clever, indeed!


I was wondering if anyone would catch my drift.  Sometimes I'm just so subtle.  Most of the time I'm as subtle as a brick, which is why my basketball game resembles a one-man bricklayers convention.  Right, Alan?  

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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DayvidGallagher
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  Message Not Read  RE: Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 9/7/2012 6:01:55 PM 
An interesting and potentially more optimistic  way to view these numbers is to examine the effect progressive winning has on the odds of going undefeated.

Using the odds in the OP:
After PSU win: 7.5%
After NMSU win: 8%
After Marshall win: 13.8%
Norfolk  14%
Umass 20%
Buffalo  22%
Akron    23%
Miami    33%
EMU      36%
BGSU   46%
Ball       65%
Kent     100%

“The thing that gets lost in the deal is we’re Ohio University. We’re Ohio. We liked to be referred to as Ohio. That’s who we are." - John Groce

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 10/9/2012 11:40:29 AM 
Fetching this thread back from Page 13, with a win this week, Ohio can increase the chance of an unbeaten season to 23%, but that is assuming that, with all the injuries, the chances of winning each individual game haven't changed. I'd rather guess that they have changed, and not for the better, so a 23% chance of going 12-0 is probably too high.

The ditch is right over there....Can we stay out of it?

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Bobcat36
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  Message Not Read  RE: Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 10/9/2012 12:01:25 PM 
L.C. wrote:


The ditch is right over there....Can we stay out of it?



GoBobcats!!!!            Always have been and always will be... Ohio's First and Finest!

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Pete Chouteau
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  Message Not Read  RE: Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 10/9/2012 12:02:29 PM 
1-0 every week.

Including the bye.

Chop wood.

Et cetera.
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 10/10/2012 8:12:57 AM 
Massey's predictive system has its own take on this. 

    win% cumulative
Akron            0.93
 
 0.93
Miami OH         0.66
 
 0.6138
E Michigan       0.95
 
 0.627
Bowling Green    0.72
 
 0.684
Ball St          0.57
 
 0.4104
Kent             0.49
 
 0.2793
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 10/10/2012 11:00:54 AM 
Another One 

http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/team/ohio-bobcats/projections
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stub
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  Message Not Read  RE: Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 10/10/2012 11:59:51 AM 
L.C. wrote:
Fetching this thread back from Page 13, with a win this week, Ohio can increase the chance of an unbeaten season to 23%, but that is assuming that, with all the injuries, the chances of winning each individual game haven't changed. I'd rather guess that they have changed, and not for the better, so a 23% chance of going 12-0 is probably too high.


I have to agree that the chances of running the table are less likely now. Not to be a downer, but with all the injuries and the way the defense has been playing, plus TT  becoming a 1 option qb, If we end up 10-2, I won’t be that disappointed. Football games can turn on a dime with turnovers, timely penalties, etc. and if things had gone against us, we could be 3-3. Anyone can beat us on a given day and if we do win the division, we’ll be playing a team that may be better than us.

Having said all that, although I'd be ok with 10-2 and pleased with 11-1, I wouldn’t trade them for a chance to go undefeated.
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Doc Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 10/10/2012 12:08:07 PM 
stub wrote:
L.C. wrote:
Fetching this thread back from Page 13, with a win this week, Ohio can increase the chance of an unbeaten season to 23%, but that is assuming that, with all the injuries, the chances of winning each individual game haven't changed. I'd rather guess that they have changed, and not for the better, so a 23% chance of going 12-0 is probably too high.


I have to agree that the chances of running the table are less likely now. Not to be a downer, but with all the injuries and the way the defense has been playing, plus TT  becoming a 1 option qb, If we end up 10-2, I won’t be that disappointed. Football games can turn on a dime with turnovers, timely penalties, etc. and if things had gone against us, we could be 3-3. Anyone can beat us on a given day and if we do win the division, we’ll be playing a team that may be better than us.
Having said all that, although I'd be ok with 10-2 and pleased with 11-1, I wouldn’t trade them for a chance to go undefeated.




You said may.

The Fiami game scares me just a tad.....but if we win that one (and of course beat Kron) OUr chances may improve because of the bye week.

The bye week "may" improve the injury situation.  Kent State is always tough...but we've played so crappy recently me thinks we're due for a good result for a change.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 10/10/2012 3:43:02 PM 
At this point it looks like 50-50 that Ohio can start 10-0. The last two games are the two where Ohio has the most chance of losing. A lot hinges on whether there are more injuries, or more guys returning from injuries. I'm hoping for the latter, and hoping they can avoid the ditch until then.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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UpSan Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 10/14/2012 1:01:57 AM 
Here's another example of how tough it is to go unbeaten. Even if a team is 90% likely to win each game it plays, it is only 47.8% likely to start 7-0 and only 28.2% likely to go 12-0.

Even if a team is 95% likely to win each of the games it plays, it is only 54% likely to go 12-0.

Of course, with each win, it becomes more probable.
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genessee
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  Message Not Read  RE: Mathematics of Unbeaten Season
   Posted: 10/14/2012 7:48:02 AM 
Unless we get a lot of guys back on D, I see it more like...

Miami 50%
EMU 75%
BGSU 55%
@Ball State 45%
@Kent 35%

Sorry for the negativity, but I hope they prove me wrong. Get healthy guys!
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