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Topic:  Computers

Topic:  Computers
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The Optimist
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Member Since: 3/16/2007
Location: CLE
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  Message Not Read  Computers
   Posted: 10/8/2012 8:30:21 PM 
All that matters is that we keep going 1-0, but I am certain I am not the only one wondering where the BCS gets the computer component of their rankings...  So I looked around a bit.  Here is what I found:

Highest and lowest rating dropped from the following 6 computers, leaving each team with 4 rankings that are put together.  If you are very interested, there is a fair amount of data out there about how the computers calculate their rankings.

All except Massey updated through bye week

Sagarin: Specifically the ELO Chess Factor (in red)  

Ohio-18
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm


Anderson and Hester
Ohio-20
http://andersonsports.com/football/ACF_frnk.html


Billingsley
Ohio-32
http://www.cfrc.com/Ratings_2012/WK_8.htm


Colley Matrix
Ohio-27
http://www.colleyrankings.com/


Massey Not Updated
Ohio-39
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&mid=6


Wolfe
Ohio-14
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

Last Edited: 10/22/2012 12:29:56 AM by The Optimist

I've seen crazier things happen.

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anorris
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Location: Bristol, CT
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  Message Not Read  RE: Computers
   Posted: 10/8/2012 8:50:48 PM 
Was actually going to post some of these earlier but ran out of time before work. I've been tracking them each week in a spreadsheet and it has been interesting to see how some weight SOS and such differently.
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Victory
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Member Since: 3/10/2012
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  Message Not Read  RE: Computers
   Posted: 10/8/2012 9:02:28 PM 
That is the Wrong Massey.  That's like the composite Sagarin.  He also has a Predictor and no victory margin ranking.  The no victory margin is used by the BCS.

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&mid=6
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The Optimist
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  Message Not Read  RE: Computers
   Posted: 10/8/2012 9:07:35 PM 
Victory wrote:
That is the Wrong Massey.  That's like the composite Sagarin.  He also has a Predictor and no victory margin ranking.  The no victory margin is used by the BCS.

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&mid=6

Thank you.  I like this one better.

I've seen crazier things happen.

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mf279801
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Location: Newark, DE
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  Message Not Read  RE: Computers
   Posted: 10/9/2012 9:52:46 AM 
Anyone know why the USAToday sagarin (EloChess 35, with a value of 78.87) is different than the sagarin.com sagarin (EloChess 22, with a value of 81.78)? Both have us at 6-0, so its not like one is an old chart.
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oucs 1986
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Mason, OH
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  Message Not Read  RE: Computers
   Posted: 10/10/2012 1:44:36 AM 
Ask Mr. Sagarin.

He does answer emails, even if he's kind of a jerk in them.

-john

Go Bobcats!
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Computers
   Posted: 10/10/2012 1:47:28 PM 
It seems to me that the one on Sagarin.com has a different ELO algorithm only.  The predictor is the same.  Some parameter has been changed.  It seems that teams with one good win and a bunch of bad ones improve the most on the Sagarin.com one and teams with one bad loss and a bunch of OK losses to good teams got hurt the most.  Of course everone's changed because everyone is rated off their opponents ratings.

I'd be curious to hear the answer.  And, yes, he does have the reputation of answering but being arrogant about it.  In fairness to him, he probably gets many emails like that every day and many, many more of the form:

Hey stupid,
Do you not even watch the games?  [My school who is 4-7] just beat the #@!$ out of the @#%$ [My schools rival who is 7-4].  How can a #%$ like you rank those $%!% higher?  You are an $%# and a !$@%!

Last Edited: 10/10/2012 1:48:16 PM by Victory
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Computers
   Posted: 10/10/2012 1:59:31 PM 
I emailed him as to which is the BCS ranking.  I will let you guys know what he says.
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Computers
   Posted: 10/10/2012 9:14:21 PM 
No response....but he did change his webpage to match USAToday.
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mf279801
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  Message Not Read  RE: Computers
   Posted: 10/10/2012 11:53:07 PM 
Ha!
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JSF
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Member Since: 1/29/2005
Location: Houston, TX
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  Message Not Read  RE: Computers
   Posted: 10/11/2012 12:40:37 AM 
ELO_Chess is what is used in the BCS. Predictor uses margin of victory and is therefore not allowed, though Sagarin says it's a better system.

"Loyalty to a hometown or city is fleeting and interchangeable, but college is a stamp of identity."- Kyle Whelliston, One Beautiful Season.

My blog about depression and mental illness: https://bit.ly/3buGXH8

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The Optimist
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  Message Not Read  RE: Computers
   Posted: 10/14/2012 2:20:18 PM 
Most of these have not been updated.  The Sagarin's have, and we are up all the way to 25!  I truly believe we will be ranked in the only poll that matters... The BCS.

I will update the original post as I see them come out.

Last Edited: 10/14/2012 2:21:48 PM by The Optimist

I've seen crazier things happen.

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anorris
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  Message Not Read  RE: Computers
   Posted: 10/14/2012 2:24:06 PM 
The Optimist wrote:
Most of these have not been updated. The Sagarin's have, and we are up all the way to 25! I truly believe we will be ranked in the only poll that matters... The BCS.
I think many of them are embargoed until after the BCS Countdown show at 8 on ESPN, so tune in! [/ShamelessSelfPromotion]

Last Edited: 10/14/2012 2:25:27 PM by anorris
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The Optimist
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Location: CLE
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  Message Not Read  RE: Computers
   Posted: 10/14/2012 2:35:24 PM 
anorris wrote:
The Optimist wrote:
Most of these have not been updated. The Sagarin's have, and we are up all the way to 25! I truly believe we will be ranked in the only poll that matters... The BCS.
I think many of them are embargoed until after the BCS Countdown show at 8 on ESPN, so tune in! [/ShamelessSelfPromotion]


I just commented on Twitter that I will be watching this show for the 1st time ever.  I haven't cared this much about a non-game on ESPN since July 8th, 2010.  

I've seen crazier things happen.

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The Optimist
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Location: CLE
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  Message Not Read  RE: Computers
   Posted: 10/14/2012 9:42:47 PM 
Interesting changes.  Colley dropped from 17 to 25 while we went from 35 to 25 in the Saragin.  Wolfe that was previously unreleased really helped.

Edit: To be clear, the highest rating is dropped (along with the lowest), so the Wolfe actually didn't help at all.  

Last Edited: 10/14/2012 9:53:28 PM by The Optimist

I've seen crazier things happen.

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anorris
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Location: Bristol, CT
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  Message Not Read  RE: Computers
   Posted: 10/14/2012 10:05:36 PM 
The Optimist wrote:
Interesting changes. Colley dropped from 17 to 25 while we went from 35 to 25 in the Saragin. Wolfe that was previously unreleased really helped.

Edit: To be clear, the highest rating is dropped (along with the lowest), so the Wolfe actually didn't help at all.
Well, it helped in that it was dropped instead of the 24, which would've dropped if Wolfe had come in higher.
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The Optimist
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  Message Not Read  RE: Computers
   Posted: 10/21/2012 12:46:18 PM 
Sagarin is the only one updated.... Up from 25 to 18!!!  

I've seen crazier things happen.

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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Computers
   Posted: 10/21/2012 1:43:59 PM 
My guess is that Sagarin-Elo was not totally unbiased last week and MAY have a very slight tinge of preseason bias in it this week.  The website says that it is unbiased but I wonder.  He used to leave the Elo biased a week or two longer than the predictor.

Alabama was #1 in the ELO last week which didn't make much sense.  Florida had pretty obviously played a tougher schedule last week by almost anyone's standard.

I wonder if the ELO result we noticed on his personal website that was different a few weeks ago were, in fact, that weeks unbiased rankings.
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