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Topic: OT: Is this true about Notre Dame?

Topic: OT: Is this true about Notre Dame?

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greencat
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OT: Is this true about Notre Dame?

Posted: 12/8/2025 8:54:10 PM

They play NINE home games next season and the total number of losses this season by their next opponents equals no less than 80?

Time to ban independent teams from the CFP period. They reside in a state with two BigTen schools and are close to four others. If they refuse to join the BigTen, the NCAA needs to stop kissing up to them and we just saw the start of that.

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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RE: OT: Is this true about Notre Dame?

Posted: 12/8/2025 9:29:46 PM

They play:

-- Wisconsin at Lambeau
-- Rice at Home
-- Michigan State at Home
-- at Purdue
-- at UNC
-- Navy at Foxborough
-- Miami at home
-- SMU at home
-- at Syracuse
-- Stanford at home
-- USC at a neutral site

It's not like they put that schedule together trying to make it bad. Just happens to be the case that Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan State, Stanford and UNC are all bad.

Hooligan
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RE: OT: Is this true about Notre Dame?

Posted: 12/8/2025 10:04:47 PM

Notre Dame is required to join the ACC IF they join a conference between now and 2036. No way in hell they join the ACC at this point.

Andrew Ruck
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RE: OT: Is this true about Notre Dame?

Posted: 12/9/2025 8:59:38 AM

Hooligan wrote:

Notre Dame is required to join the ACC IF they join a conference between now and 2036. No way in hell they join the ACC at this point.

Notre Dame NEEDS to be in the Big Ten. Give the ACC back Maryland & Rutgers as payment.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

spongeBOB CATpants
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RE: OT: Is this true about Notre Dame?

Posted: 12/9/2025 10:08:01 AM

Since they aren't in a conference they don't have any conference revenue sharing obligations. I think we had a thread on this at some point. That right there should be enough to shadow ban them from the CFP.

STVCastle
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RE: OT: Is this true about Notre Dame?

Posted: 12/9/2025 10:19:29 AM

It wouldn't surprise me if Notre Dame tries to pull out of their agreement with the ACC and negotiate their way to freedom.

Tbh I can see a scenario where the CFP (by extension ESPN, let's be real honest) basically tells ND "Either you join a conference, or we'll lock you out of the CFP. We're tired of this crap."

OhioCatFan
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RE: OT: Is this true about Notre Dame?

Posted: 12/9/2025 10:45:12 AM

STVCastle wrote:

The exact opposite seems to be what's happening as ND has almost a free-ride into the CFP starting next year. They'll be an annual fixture, unless they have a real bad record, which with the way they schedule won't happen often.

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

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GoCats105
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RE: OT: Is this true about Notre Dame?

Posted: 12/9/2025 11:33:46 AM

The funny thing is there really isn't a consensus source for ranking SOS. ESPN has their own, but they don't really say how it's calculated. Some SEC bloggers have their own which weigh more toward the SEC (shocking). But for the most part, people use a combination of factors, using things like Sagarin, the Colley Matrix and ESPN's FPI.

Using TeamRankings.com, here is Notre Dame's recent SOS history. I feel like this one is the most subjective of the one's I've seen.

2025: 11th
2024: 4th
2023: 11th
2022: 33rd
2021: 21st
2020: eh
2019: 16th
2018: 13th

There are so many factors at play here. How high was the team ranked that you played? How long ago did you schedule this? Did the team nose dive at the end of the year compared to when you played them? I'm sure when Notre Dame initially shceduled Wisconsin, they were expecting a good game to boost their resume. Wisconsin actually has more wins than Notre Dame since the turn of the century FWIW. Also, they can't rely on USC to win big games like they used to.

Last Edited: 12/9/2025 11:35:01 AM by GoCats105

Victory
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RE: OT: Is this true about Notre Dame?

Posted: 12/9/2025 1:53:39 PM

GoCats105 wrote:

The funny thing is there really isn't a consensus source for ranking SOS.

That is because there isn't a clear question that we are asking when we ask "who played the toughest schedule?"

If your 5th grade math teacher asked you to solve this problem, you would have probably done something like add up the winning percentage of a team's opponents. There are obvious problems with this. One is that it says nothing about the schedule your opponent's played. We played a lot of MAC teams and the MAC teams that we played also played a lot of MAC teams. This helps pull our opponents winning percentage up closer to .500 because our MAC opponents are exactly .500 when playing each other. The converse of this is true in the SEC.

Now, there are predictive computer rankings that take into account more data and, in general, do a good job of predicting the actual betting spread of most games. So, we could average our opponents ratings and say how good our average opponent was but.....

Let me give you two schedules

Schedule A:
#1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6, #131, #132, #133, #134, #135, #136

Schedule B:
#62, #63, #64, #65, #66, #67, #68, #69, #70, #71, #72, #73

If you were, say the #15 team you might most likely go 8-4 vs. A but 11-1 against B
If you were #120, you might most likely go 4-8 vs. A and 1-11 against B

The average predictive rating of the two schedules is almost identical. How difficult the schedule is ISN'T the same at all and which one IS more difficult is dependant on who is playing the schedule.

So you have resume computer rankings that actually try to state how difficult the record was to put up against the schedule. Even this question is not as direct as it sounds.

When we were discussing tiebreakers I stated in the USA we tend to admire teams with good wins and bad losses over teams that had neither. Can you hear Herbstreit yelling "Who did they beat?" There isn't much of an actual historical reason to believe that the former is more indicative of a better team than the latter. ESPN FPI "strength of record" asks "what are the odds that the #12 ranked team could put up as good of a record or better that the team did against their schedule?" Do you see where I am going? "What are the odds that the #12 ranked team could put up as good of a record or WORSE that the team did against their schedule?" is probably just about as important of a question to ask. The upshot of this is that it slightly favor's teams with difficult schedules and more losses. FPI SOR is more likely to rank Alabama and Texas ahead of BYU, Notre Dame, and Miami than a lot of systems trying to to a similar sort of ranking for this reason.

Last Edited: 12/9/2025 3:31:59 PM by Victory

Victory
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RE: OT: Is this true about Notre Dame? (NT)

Posted: 12/9/2025 3:30:27 PM

Last Edited: 12/9/2025 3:31:35 PM by Victory

BillyTheCat
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RE: OT: Is this true about Notre Dame?

Posted: 12/9/2025 4:48:46 PM

The fact that the ND administration is mad that the �ACC turned their back on their biggest partner�, shows how out of touch and self absorbed they are! They obviously expect the ACC to lobby against their own member, a member who actually beat ND.

5KMD
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RE: OT: Is this true about Notre Dame?

Posted: 12/10/2025 9:32:08 AM

BillyTheCat wrote:

I'm pretty sure ND was upset that the ACC singled them out when lobbying for Miami. They could have gone after Alabama and Oklahoma as well and lobbied for both Miami and ND to get in.

5KMD
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RE: OT: Is this true about Notre Dame?

Posted: 12/10/2025 9:34:11 AM

STVCastle wrote:

I wouldn't be shocked if ND partners up with NBC and tries to lure several teams out of the other conferences to form their own. I'll bet there are schools that would consider it.

M.D.W.S.T
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RE: OT: Is this true about Notre Dame?

Posted: 12/10/2025 10:23:47 AM

5KMD wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

I'm pretty sure ND was upset that the ACC singled them out when lobbying for Miami. They could have gone after Alabama and Oklahoma as well and lobbied for both Miami and ND to get in.

How I took it as well.

If those are your final two teams, I can see how it could be a toss-up. But I would've leaned on Notre Dame.

In my eyes, Miami shouldn't be there. Should ND? They're ranked #9. So, yeah that would be my first qualifier. Some guys decided they disagreed with the AP voters and put Miami over them due to a 3-point loss in August.

I do like the bowl commissioner guy saying it came down to head-to-head. Wish we had him in charge of the MAC. BUT winning in week one, barely, isn't the empirical evidence I'm looking for here. Miami lost to Louisville and SMU. Notre Dame has two losses vs CFP teams - Miami (#10) and Texas A&M (#7).

And if you're still staring at the data, can't decide between the two going I have both at "95.5 points", I'm still probably giving ND the nod. Lets call it strength of losses, like they did to us. But it's hard to argue against the head-to-head. I think it's just harder to use head-to-head when its from Week 1.

And if I'm Duke. I'm throwing a fit.

Last Edited: 12/10/2025 10:45:40 AM by M.D.W.S.T

OhioCatFan
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RE: OT: Is this true about Notre Dame?

Posted: 12/10/2025 10:37:28 AM

M.D.W.S.T wrote:

I do like the bowl commissioner guy saying it came down to head-to-head. Wish we had him in charge of the MAC. . . .

Amen, bro!

5KMD
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RE: OT: Is this true about Notre Dame?

Posted: 12/10/2025 11:01:31 AM

M.D.W.S.T wrote:

5KMD wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

I'm pretty sure ND was upset that the ACC singled them out when lobbying for Miami. They could have gone after Alabama and Oklahoma as well and lobbied for both Miami and ND to get in.

I think the conference thing has lost a little luster as well once they got so big. Ohio State and Indiana had a couple of nice regular season wins but nothing super significant.

The original topic of this thread was ND weak schedule next year and that includes Purdue, MSU and Wisconsin. Well, Indiana played those three schools this year and didn't play OSU or Michigan (in the regular season) so waht's the differnece?

GoCats105
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RE: OT: Is this true about Notre Dame?

Posted: 12/10/2025 11:02:39 AM

5KMD wrote:

STVCastle wrote:

I wouldn't be shocked if ND partners up with NBC and tries to lure several teams out of the other conferences to form their own. I'll bet there are schools that would consider it.

This is an interesting concept I hadn't really considered before, but there are only a handful of schools on par with Notre Dame that could potentially go Independent because of their national brand and form some sort of pseudo super league:

-Ohio State and Michigan for sure.
-Penn State and USC are more regionally relevant than nationally, especially Penn State
-Texas for sure, Texas A&M no.
-I'm not sure how many other schools in the SEC really have a national pull, including Alabama. Any time the national championship featured two southern schools, a lot of the country metaphorically checked out.

Bobcatbob
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RE: OT: Is this true about Notre Dame?

Posted: 12/10/2025 3:38:54 PM

When discussing Notre Dame, whatever the context, it is important to keep in mind that the University and its alumni command untold amounts of media clout, money, loyalty, political power, etc. Notre Dame will do what it wants, when it wants.

If anyone in the ACC, B1G, NCAA, BCS, CFP, etc. could do anything about this anomaly, they would have done it long ago.

BillyTheCat
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RE: OT: Is this true about Notre Dame?

Posted: 12/10/2025 5:13:42 PM

M.D.W.S.T wrote:

5KMD wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

I'm pretty sure ND was upset that the ACC singled them out when lobbying for Miami. They could have gone after Alabama and Oklahoma as well and lobbied for both Miami and ND to get in.

Miami beat ND, you don�t get a bigger target than losing the head to head battle. This board would melt down if ND got in over NIU (if ranked the same as these two) and costing the MAC that kind of money.

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