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Topic: Weaker MAC

Topic: Weaker MAC

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bornacatfan
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Member Since: 8/3/2006
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Weaker MAC

Posted: 2/25/2018 12:04:16 PM

I keep reading about the "weaker MAC" . Looking at the KenPom ratings since 2002 I looked back hoping to find a decidedly weaker conference.

Conference Rating Conference Rating
1Big 12 Conference +16.76 17 Western Athletic Confe -2.45
2Atlantic Coast Conf +15.88 18 Colonial Athletic Asso -2.46
3Big East Conference +15.12 19 Big West Conference -3.40
4Southeastern Confere +14.75 20 Metro Atlantic Athletic -4.01
5Big Ten Conferen +13.25 21 Southern Conference -4.46
6Pac 12 Conference +9.33 22 Ivy League -4.59
7American Athletic Con +6.25 23 Ohio Valley Conference -5.11
8Mountain West Confer +5.46 24 Big South Conference -6.15
9Missouri Valley Conf +3.87 25 Horizon League -6.40
10West Coast Conferen +1.24 26 America East Conference -6.45
11Atlantic 10 Confere +1.08 27 Patriot League -8.17
12Conference USA -0.82 28 Southland Conference -8.18
13Summit League -1.40 29 Northeast Conference -9.30
14Mid American Confer -1.80 30 Atlantic Sun Conference -9.79
15Sun Belt Conference -2.30 31 Mid-Eastern Athleti -17.09
16Big Sky Conference -2.38

Looking at a couple factors.
Conf Rank, Ohio rank, Top team, No of top 150 teams, MACC tourney champ Rank

to see what shook out.
CR OU top # NCAA qual

2002 12 115 14 5 14
2003 14 168 70 4 70
2004 15 188 31 4 31
2005 10 85 72 7 85
2006 13 109 70 6 70
2007 13 125 45 5 87
2008 12 95 55 4 55
2009 19 170 91 4 95
2010 16 94 86 4 94
2011 19 149 99 4 118
2012 14 57 57 5 57
2013 15 82 62` 3 62
2014 14 127 101 5 131
2015 11 232 58 7 58
2016 12 141 88 5 138
2017 13 105 100 4 141
2018 14 209 83 2

Those are the numbers. Weaker? The years show we were a weaker conference relative to the rest in the late 2000s. The overall conference has been declining in KenPom rankings at the top of the conference for the last 15 years.

Trend is toward less ability to schedule higher conference games looking through these with resultantly less top 100, 150 and sub 200 teams. Sub 200 teams are more evident and numerous dragging the top down. THe MACC champ is somewhat predictable. As a 2010 MACC champ even with our lousy record it was predictable that the proverbial "creme rises to the top" would happen if you go strictly by Sagarins and KemPom looking back. The gap between us and Kent was small and facing 121 Kron in the finals we should have won. Most years reflect similar scenarios across the MAC save for the 3 of the last 4 years.

never argue with idiots, they bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.

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Jeff McKinney
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RE: Weaker MAC

Posted: 2/25/2018 12:41:29 PM

What strikes me about the MAC in recent years isn't "weakness", but "mediocrity". The league hasn't had a lot of teams sub 250, but most of the teams have been in the 120 to 180 range.

I think bornacat is correct that a major reason for this is weaker non conference schedules plus an inability to defeat good teams when given the opportunity. The MAC teams have dome a good job of beating teams at their level or below , which has kept the league hovering about 12 or 13 in the various metrics.

MAC is 11th in RPI this year and 12/13 in Sagarin. Gotta keep in mind there's 32 Div I conferences so this isn't weak, but it is mediocre and lacking in excitement.

Deciduous Forest Cat
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RE: Weaker MAC

Posted: 2/25/2018 1:07:24 PM

Once again, I have to bring up the home games mandate by the home office. Everyone wants stronger schedules, but to do that, you're going to have to deal with some imbalance and go on the road more. We can't mandate 8 preseason home games and then act surprised that the best strength of schedule in the league starts in the triple digits. and strength of schedule is a huge factor in these computer rankings. You could be the best team in the country, but if all you do is play low majors at home, you're fighting a losing battle. (and I'm not one who's complaining about this year's schedule. Dayton, Clemson, WKU and yes, Iona and Indiana State made for a nice preseason slate. We're not getting a home and home with Kentucky and Duke, sure, but we're still going to have a hell of a time with midlevel p5 schools. Go on the road and win a few. Get those 2-1 deals if you have to. That strength of schedule will jump in a hurry.

OhioCatFan
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Location: Athens, OH
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RE: Weaker MAC

Posted: 2/25/2018 1:14:45 PM

Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:

. . . Go on the road and win a few [P6 games]. Get those 2-1 deals if you have to. That strength of schedule will jump in a hurry.

^^^^^^^^^^ What he said.

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Alan Swank
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RE: Weaker MAC

Posted: 2/25/2018 1:38:20 PM

Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:

Could not agree more. Refresh my memory, what was the reasoning behind the mandate to schedule more home non-league games?

bornacatfan
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RE: Weaker MAC

Posted: 2/25/2018 1:42:17 PM

OhioCatFan wrote:

Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:

. . . Go on the road and win a few [P6 games]. Get those 2-1 deals if you have to. That strength of schedule will jump in a hurry.

^^^^^^^^^^ What he said.

Quick Schedule Pitt.

BobcatSports
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RE: Weaker MAC

Posted: 2/25/2018 6:59:43 PM

Do you think those geniuses around the PITT program miss Jamie Dixon now? Can�t believe how far that program has collapsed.

Jeff McKinney
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RE: Weaker MAC

Posted: 2/25/2018 7:44:45 PM

Our two peer conferences are CUSA and the Sun Belt. Notice that they are in the same boat as the MAC...trying to be players in both football and basketball with limited budgets. Result? The leagues are mediocre in both sports.

Mountain West and American conferences have more money to work with so they are able to get away with it.

GraffZ06
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Location: Dayton, OH
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RE: Weaker MAC

Posted: 2/25/2018 8:21:58 PM

Uh oh, Jeff mentioned the "f" word.

bornacatfan
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RE: Weaker MAC

Posted: 2/26/2018 3:14:26 PM

BobcatSports wrote:

Do you think those geniuses around the PITT program miss Jamie Dixon now? Can�t believe how far that program has collapsed.

Better yet. How far the TCU program came in a very tough Big 12, from a consistent high 100s, low 200s kenpom to 29 and 21 the last 2 years.

OU_Country
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RE: Weaker MAC

Posted: 2/26/2018 4:19:09 PM

bornacatfan wrote:

OhioCatFan wrote:

Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:

. . . Go on the road and win a few [P6 games]. Get those 2-1 deals if you have to. That strength of schedule will jump in a hurry.

^^^^^^^^^^ What he said.

Quick Schedule Pitt.

Agreed - schedule Pitt for the next 2-3 years. I was at The Pete on Saturday to witness what I'll call the worst half of college basketball I've ever seen from any team. 1-22 from the floor in the first half. After watching Duquesne a couple hours earlier, I'm still trying to figure out how they lost to Pitt in the "City Game".

Also, for those that haven't been, I'd recommend a little trip over to the Palumbo Center at Duquense. It's a nice little arena.

bornacatfan
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RE: Weaker MAC

Posted: 2/26/2018 4:32:07 PM

Told ya the over under was going to be closer to 95

OU_Country
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RE: Weaker MAC

Posted: 2/26/2018 4:36:27 PM

bornacatfan wrote:

Told ya the over under was going to be closer to 95

I should have consulted you prior to making bets! ;)

I lost every single bet on that game - we usually have 3-4 per game we're at with a 5-10 bucks or a bucket of beer on the line.

bshot44
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RE: Weaker MAC

Posted: 2/27/2018 1:23:12 PM

Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:

I'm not one who's complaining about this year's schedule. Dayton, Clemson, WKU and yes, Iona and Indiana State made for a nice preseason slate. We're not getting a home and home with Kentucky and Duke, sure, but we're still going to have a hell of a time with midlevel p5 schools. Go on the road and win a few. Get those 2-1 deals if you have to. That strength of schedule will jump in a hurry.

Fact ... Dayton, Clemson, WKU, Iona and Indiana State are a solid foundation for a non-conference schedule.

BUT ....

When you add in MEAC/SWACtion x 3 and NE Ohio ... that dead weight KILLS your schedule.

And yes ... I know that probably is due to the 8 home game rule the MAC has instituted ... but I've been harping for years to dump this SWACtion games and go play someone that will actually get you ready for the MAC season and help your OOC schedule.

One MEAC/SWACtion team is enough. Three is overkill especially when you thrown in actual non-D1 game.

The 2-for-1 deal is a no-brainer ... and why Ohio doesn't try to exercise that with some lower level P6 teams (Providence, DePaul, Nebraska, Northwestern, Auburn, Pitt, BC) is beyond me. Maybe they are? Maybe they aren't? But I know that the schedule can be better than what we get in terms of Prairie View, MVSU, Alabama A&M and Southern.

St. Bonnie and UMass both came to Athens recently. So has Temple. You can't get Rhode Island down here? Or VCU? Richmond came recently. There are better options out there ... I'd like to think Ohio is trying to find opportunities with them ... but I'm just not sure they are.

Bobcatfanatic
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RE: Weaker MAC

Posted: 2/28/2018 6:24:06 AM

Jamie Dixon was not very good at the end, he left for TCU at the right time. Pitt was built for the Big East, not the ACC. Pitt hired the wrong guy, based on a recommendation from a headhunter that was close friend of Scott Barnes the AD who left shortly after. PITT doesn't have the players to compete in the ACC in football or basketball. They are making more money but....

OU_Country
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RE: Weaker MAC

Posted: 2/28/2018 10:01:28 AM

bshot44 wrote:

Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:

I'm reluctant to go down the schedule complaining wormhole, but I will because it's worth pointing out who those A-10 teams played on the road or on a neutral floor this year as clues that indicate how unlikely it is they're coming to Athens.

URI: Seton Hall and Virginia at MSG, at Nevada, at Alabama. Last year was similar in terms of the caliber of road/neutral games. Bottom line is, under Hurley, they ain't coming to Athens. They're essentially a power conference team right now with no incentive to come to The Convo.

VCU: at Seton Hall, then Marquette, Michigan, Cal in a holiday tournament. The rest of their non-conf was at home. Similar schedule the year before, though they did play regional mid-major's ODU and Liberty on the road. Unlikely they come to Athens anytime soon.

Temple: Now in the AAC, they have an interesting non-conf schedule because they play several teams in the Phily Big 5 in the non-conf. That's 3-4 games with Drexel, St.Joe's, Penn, La Salle. Then they play road games with power conferences, or, like Ohio this year, end up in someplace like Charleston. That doesn't leave a lot of room for a trip to Athens.

Richmond, St Bonnie, UMass: All more likely if you look at the caliber of road games they scheduled this year. Of those three, UMass is currently the worst game by quite a bit, and worse than the Iona and WKU 1 for 1's that we saw this year and last.

Bottom line with future scheduling is twofold (in my opinion): First, the folks in the MAC office in Cleveland need to ease up on this minimum required home games by a couple games, and in turn ask teams to schedule good road opponents - top 150/175 from the prior year's RPI. Second, anyone here thinking we should be getting one for one, or one off home games against the likes of the upper tier of the A10, AAC, etc, needs to consider the reality - there's nothing in it for those teams to come play on the road in Athens. It's a losing proposition whether they win or lose. Either they lose the game, or they take an RPI hit relative to who they could be playing instead. Also, they could play the home game and make money, or go play at a P6 school.

Instead, I'd rather see the type of schedule that we saw Fuss seem to aim for - which was trying to get the top third teams from those conferences on par with, or a little below the MAC. Nothing wrong with the SWAC/MEAC if you get one of the teams vying to win their conference, and a potential NCAA Tournament team.

And I'll take games against Marshall, Iona, and WKU like we had this year all day long.

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