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Topic: Advanced Stats

Topic: Advanced Stats

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Andrew Ruck
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Member Since: 12/22/2004
Location: Columbus, OH
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Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/23/2019 8:48:46 AM

I used to post info from StatGeek.com but that website is now a goner. They were the only site that I am aware of that tracked player plus/minus.

However, basketball reference has a formula called BPM that calculates the points per 100 possessions a player contributes above a league average player. It is similar to WAR (wins above replacement) in baseball meant to boil the all around game into 1 number. It has an offensive component and defensive component. Here is how the Bobcats shake out:

Vander Plas +4.0 (O +1.8, D +2.2)
D Taylor +3.1 (O -2.5, D +5.6)
J Carter +2.4 (O +1.9, D +0.5)
G Block +1.2 (O +0.4, D +0.8)
J Gollon +0.4 (O +0.9, D -0.5)
J Preston -1.3 (O -2.0, D +0.7)
Cowart Jr -2.0 (O -3.9, D +1.9)
T Kirk -5.1 (O -6.8, D +1.6)

Every stat is flawed but I think these numbers pass the eye test for me, especially when you consider Preston & Cowart had a hard time getting it going offensively early in the season. As President of the JC fan club, I feel like I should admit his touch around the rim has not been as good as it was when he finished out his freshman year as he has faced more double teams and it stands to reason that despite being our best, he isn't at the top of this list.

And Kirk's overall offensive contributions have been critically poor at the position he has been played. As in...can single handily turn a decent team into a poor team type of poor. Hopefully his skills are put to better use going forward and we see things improve.

The other advanced stat they have is wins shares per 40 minutes, meant to boil down to how much a player contributed to a win. The average win per team per game being .5...an 5 players on the court...so the average/solid player would be around .1. 5 players on the court close to .2 would theoretically make for a fairly unbeatable team from a statistical standpoint. Here is how the Bobcats shake out with that stat:

J Carter - .173
Vander Plas - .143
J Gollon - .140
D Taylor - .129
G Block - .104
J Preston - .086
A Cowart - .037
T Kirk - .017

Again, these numbers pass the eye test for me and illustrates how the bigs have been a strength while the guards have been a weakness.

Last Edited: 1/23/2019 9:10:20 AM by Andrew Ruck

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

FearLeon
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RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/23/2019 10:11:44 AM

Andrew Ruck wrote:

Who is playing center for this team next year? It's not like DT is Wilt Chamberlain, but we really don't even have anyone warming up in the bullpen. Does anyone truly think Springs will be ready to go and play significant minutes in the paint next season? I'm guessing we'll have at least one transfer after this season. New coach better find a JUCO big that can play some quality minutes.

Last Edited: 1/23/2019 10:13:46 AM by FearLeon

#BleedGreen #TrentIsGOAT

colobobcat66
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RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/23/2019 10:48:03 AM

FearLeon wrote:

Andrew Ruck wrote:

If you are right and there�s a new coach, finding a center next year will be the least of our worries. We will be finding a new team.

FearLeon
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RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/23/2019 10:56:48 AM

colobobcat66 wrote:

FearLeon wrote:

Andrew Ruck wrote:

If you are right and there�s a new coach, finding a center next year will be the least of our worries. We will be finding a new team.

I agree with that. Have to believe more than one transfer as well. Total rebuild job, but we all know that.

#BleedGreen #TrentIsGOAT

GoCats105
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Location: Seattle, WA
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RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/23/2019 11:01:29 AM

FearLeon wrote:

colobobcat66 wrote:

FearLeon wrote:

Andrew Ruck wrote:

If you are right and there�s a new coach, finding a center next year will be the least of our worries. We will be finding a new team.

I agree with that. Have to believe more than one transfer as well. Total rebuild job, but we all know that.

My guess: we'd probably go with two 4s (BVP and JC) and hopefully pick up a JUCO big.

There are a lot of factors that go into next year depending on what happens when the season is over. It could be a whole new crop of players, or very little differences. Big question marks.

Last Edited: 1/23/2019 11:02:46 AM by GoCats105

OUVan
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RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/23/2019 11:38:29 AM

FearLeon wrote:

I'm more concerned with who's running the point. Hard to say what will happen with the roster after this year. Hopefully we can keep most of the returning parts but that is far from a given.

Last Edited: 1/23/2019 11:56:07 AM by OUVan

OU_Country
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RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/23/2019 11:51:07 AM

Andrew Ruck wrote:

It shows exactly what we've thought for awhile: none of our guards have been getting it done as compared to the opponents guards. I say that with the caveat that TK has had a few games where he really has, as has Cowart, and most recently Preston has. I think Gollon would have been a huge factor for the team had he remained healthy to the end of the year. And that doesn't even account for the lack of Dartis. At the end of the day, all of them have been asked to do more than they were probably initially recruited for, and to do things outside of their strengths. For example, Cowart is probably best suited to play 25 mins a game guarding the best couple players the opponent has. TK is probably best suited to be a 6th, 7th man off the bench to provide instant energy. Instead, they're both being relied on to do more, and they're falling short sometimes.

In terms of the guard position alone, this team is drastically different with a full, healthy season of Gollon and Dartis together. Drastically. It's where they are now though, and I hope we continue to see gains from Preston and Murrell as we go forward.

OhioCatFan
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RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/23/2019 12:24:25 PM

Perhaps it's been announced and I missed it, but is it 100 percent certain that Dartis will not be back at all this year? I noticed that he was in uniform . . . probably after a practice . . . when they showed the video of him stumbling around on the quiz won by the student.

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

OU_Country
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RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/23/2019 12:43:47 PM

OUVan wrote:

FearLeon wrote:

I'm more concerned with who's running the point. Hard to say what will happen with the roster after this year. Hopefully we can keep most of the returning parts but that is far from a given.

Given that I assume Saul & staff won't be here, I'm gonna say that I think it's highly likely that TK won't be either. At that point, I run through my head on who else I think stays/goes. I think we'll see at best 5-6 of the remaining players stay. All of them will be presented with other options, that's for sure.

GoCats105
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RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/23/2019 12:54:10 PM

OhioCatFan wrote:

It hasn't been announced but I think it kind of goes without saying. If he wasn't back by the MAC season, he probably wouldn't be back at all.

100%Cat
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RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/23/2019 1:02:00 PM

OU_Country wrote:

OUVan wrote:

FearLeon wrote:

I'm more concerned with who's running the point. Hard to say what will happen with the roster after this year. Hopefully we can keep most of the returning parts but that is far from a given.

Wouldn't you think that guys who have already redshirted a year (Dartis, Carter, BVP for example) might be more inclined to stay and not sit out a second year? Of course, that's assuming it's D1-D1 transfer.

Andrew Ruck
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RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/23/2019 1:58:44 PM

OU_Country wrote:

I think we'll see at best 5-6 of the remaining players stay. All of them will be presented with other options, that's for sure.

I think you're way off. These guys are a part of more than just a coaching staff. Teammates, the campus, the school in general. I know coaching changes can spur transfers but more than half the roster "at best" is crazy to me.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

FearLeon
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RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/23/2019 2:30:44 PM

OU_Country wrote:

OUVan wrote:

FearLeon wrote:

I'm more concerned with who's running the point. Hard to say what will happen with the roster after this year. Hopefully we can keep most of the returning parts but that is far from a given.

Given that I assume Saul & staff won't be here, I'm gonna say that I think it's highly likely that TK won't be either.

Totally agree. I think this becomes more probable with each passing day and each Preston assist.

#BleedGreen #TrentIsGOAT

OU_Country
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RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/23/2019 3:36:09 PM

Andrew Ruck wrote:

OU_Country wrote:

I think we'll see at best 5-6 of the remaining players stay. All of them will be presented with other options, that's for sure.

I guess we'll see. Two of the current 13 will be gone merely because of graduation.

Another 2 may be eligible to be a grad transfer (Dartis/Gollon)?

That leaves 9 other returning guys, plus two new recruits.

I think it's reasonable to assume that 2-3 of the 9 returning players might leave, and that both of the incoming players will at the very least reconsider coming here - especially McDay. And in this day and age, I assume that most of them will indirectly be approached with other opportunities to transfer, or go closer to home in some cases. I guarantee most of them will at least have the conversation about whether staying at OU with whomever the new coaching staff ends up being is the right thing to do for them. And that's mostly where I'm going, while at the same time assuming that 2-3 will probably leave. Obviously it all depends on the new coaching staff, and the other factors you mention. Right or wrong, I still think that basketball is the primary decision maker in a lot of cases.

OU_Country
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RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/23/2019 3:38:39 PM

100%Cat wrote:

I would think that makes sense for Carter and BVP, yes. Dartis is different though if he graduates this spring, right?

OU_Country
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RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/23/2019 3:40:39 PM

FearLeon wrote:

OU_Country wrote:

Given that I assume Saul & staff won't be here, I'm gonna say that I think it's highly likely that TK won't be either.

Totally agree. I think this becomes more probable with each passing day and each Preston assist.

While we agree - I don't think it has as much to do with Preston's performances and role as it does with the staff that recruited him to be their guy. This is total gut feeling for me - not that I actually know anything. ;)

OhioCatFan
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RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/23/2019 5:36:27 PM

Gollon will probably just hang 'em up and enroll in a medical school next fall.

GoCats105
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RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/23/2019 5:47:41 PM

OU_Country wrote:

Andrew Ruck wrote:

OU_Country wrote:

I think we'll see at best 5-6 of the remaining players stay. All of them will be presented with other options, that's for sure.

I think a lot of this is going to depend on the ruling of the new transfer proposal to allow athletes to transfer immediately whenever there is a coaching change. That day in April may be the most important day for Ohio basketball than anything else.

Bob Haldeman
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RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/24/2019 2:51:48 PM

Andrew Ruck wrote:

Seriously, more of this. More of all of this.

GraffZ06
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RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/24/2019 3:44:14 PM

Bob Haldeman wrote:

Andrew Ruck wrote:

Seriously, more of this. More of all of this.

+1000000

OU_Country
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RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/24/2019 4:10:27 PM

Andrew Ruck wrote:

Because you got me interested in looking, I had a few minutes to go to Basketball reference (www.sports-reference.com/cbb for those that haven't been - great site!).

I took a look at the best recent years we've been referring to a lot around here.

In the 15 games he played in 2016-17, Tony had a .224 win share, that year Carter was a .183, Dartis a .163, Simmons a .114, Kaminski a .128. The year before when he was MAC POY, Tony was .218.

In 2012, DJ and Walt were both .174, and then Nick .156 as the highest rated players.

2013: DJ was .179, Reggie .200, Walt .140, and Jon Smith .203
2010: DJ .164, Basset .156, Freeman .145, Washington .152
2005: Leon .195, Sonny .159, Green .143, Fears .064 (hmmmm)

Andrew Ruck
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RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/25/2019 11:36:58 AM

Bob Haldeman wrote:

Seriously, more of this. More of all of this.

Thanks. Some believe pulling publicly available data and drawing insights from it is crossing the line, but I do enjoy actually discussing real basketball.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

shabamon
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RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/25/2019 12:10:24 PM

So would we say Tony has been our MVP from the last 15 years?

GoCats105
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RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/25/2019 12:40:27 PM

shabamon wrote:

So would we say Tony has been our MVP from the last 15 years?

At one point Tony was either 2nd or 3rd in the country in PER (Player Efficiency Rating) during the season he won MAC POTY. I think you have an argument. Maybe not the best player of the last 15, but most valuable? Certainly can see it.

Andrew Ruck
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RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/25/2019 1:45:10 PM

Before taking my current position as President of the Jason Carter fan club, I was founder & President of the Tony Campbell fan club. Those stats are pretty incredible and only makes me further believe in their accuracy. He was awesome and I feel so deprived to not get a full senior season from him.

Where is he playing now? Hopefully somewhere.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

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