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Topic: The Race for the 7th Seed

Topic: The Race for the 7th Seed

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Flomo-genized
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The Race for the 7th Seed

Posted: 2/16/2011 1:37:57 PM

Some random musings on the race for MAC Tournament seeding...

As several have noted, our most realistic best hope for MAC Tournament seeding at this point is likely procuring the 7th seed (although a higher seed is certainly possible if we go on a tear to end the year). The 7th seed would give us a first round home game, most likely against one of the bottom half West division teams, and would also set us up for a more winable QF matchup against the West champ, before a SF showdown versus the 3rd or 6th seed.

If the season ended today, we'd be the 8th seed. We're in pretty good shape to lock up a first round home game, as we will clinch the 8th seed by going at least 2-2 the rest of the way in the MAC, with EMU losing once more, and CMU losing two more games.

While it's still obviously way too early to make definitive predictions, securing the 7th seed remains very possible (and perhaps even likely). For instance, assume for the sake of argument that we go 2-2 the rest of the way in the MAC, to finish at 8-8. Let's further assume that Kent, Miami, Akron, Ball State, and WMU will all finish at least 9-7 (all 5 teams are currently 7-5 or better, with at least two home games remaining). That means that, for the time being, we are primarily competing with Buffalo and BGSU for the 6th through 8th seeds.

BGSU has road games left at Ohio and Miami, followed by home games against Kent and Buffalo. While it is certainly possible they go 2-2 to finish at 9-7 in the conference, given their recent performances I'd say that 1-3 or even 0-4 is more likely. If they finish 1-3, they'd be 8-8. If BGSU goes 0-4, they'd finish 7-9, in which case we'd likely clinch at least the 7th seed by finishing 8-8.

Meanwhile, Buffalo has 3 road games left (@ Kent, Akron, and BG), with only one home game remaining against Miami. If they go 1-3 they'll finish at 8-8, while a 2-2 finish would put them at 9-7. Should Buffalo finish 1-3 with a loss at BGSU, we'd likely see a 3-way tie between UB, Ohio, and BGSU at 8-8. BGSU would likely win that head-to-head tie-breaker to clinch the 6 seed, because in this scenario they'd have swept UB, while Ohio would get the 7th seed, and Buffalo the 8th seed. This might be the best case scenario for us, should we finish 2-2.

However, should we find ourselves in a two-way tie with either BGSU or Buffalo for the 8th seed we may be at a slight disadvantage. Assuming we beat BGSU at home, we'd split the first tie breaker (head-to-head record) with either BGSU or Buffalo. That means we'd then go to the second tie-breaker, namely our comparative records versus the 1st seed, and possibly additional tie-breakers (record vs. 2nd seed, 3rd seed, and so on). The fact that we are at risk of being swept this year by Kent, Miami, and WMU obviously hurts us in that regard. BGSU may also be swept by Kent, but has beaten Miami, BSU, and WMU. Meanwhile, UB already owns a win versus Kent. Thus, we'd likely finish 8th should we finish in a head-to-head tie with either BGSU or UB for the 7th seed (barring an upset win on the road at Kent).

So, overall, I think we should be rooting for Buffalo and BGSU to both lose as many games as possible. Of course, all that gets thrown out the window if we finish 3-1 or 1-3...

Last Edited: 2/16/2011 1:48:31 PM by Flomo-genized

BobcatSports
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RE: The Race for the 7th Seed

Posted: 2/16/2011 1:52:33 PM

Yee of little faith. Is 4-0 not a possibility as well?

UpSan Bobcat
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RE: The Race for the 7th Seed

Posted: 2/16/2011 2:04:01 PM

I realize Akron has been playing pretty well lately, but we beat them once already and have them at home this time. Just one game ahead of us, they are definitely in the mix to possibly fall to eighth. It would be positive for us to have any tiebreaker scenario with them because that likely would involve us beating them both time (If we lose at home, we probably won't end up tied with them).

Personally, it seems Bowling Green has come down to earth lately and they might really struggle the second time through the East. They are the top candidate for us to catch or pass.

This is the same thing we were hoping for last year, and we ended up almost worst-case scenario in ninth. Somehow we won the tournament playing pretty much the toughest draw imaginable, beating a Ball State team on the rise on the road, then winning against the No. 1, 4 and 3 seeds (and No. 2 from the West probably wasn't as good as any of the teams we played).

The Optimist
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RE: The Race for the 7th Seed

Posted: 2/16/2011 2:26:58 PM

BobcatSports wrote:

Yee of little faith. Is 4-0 not a possibility as well?

My thoughts exactly, so I present this scenario:
We don't lose in the next month, leaving us discussing our opponent for tomorrow or the following days game a month from today. That game would be a 1st round game in the big dance.... Who looks like Georgetown this year?

I've seen crazier things happen.

anorris
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RE: The Race for the 7th Seed

Posted: 2/16/2011 2:37:57 PM

I've been keeping an eye on the 7/8 scenarios for a while now, but the problem is that this conference is so schizophrenic that hardly anything is a given, except for nearly everyone killing Toledo.

Did anyone see what Akron did to BG in Anderson, after we thumped them in the JAR and BG shot lights out on us?

See the Buffalo/Ohio series for more insanity, then add Buffalo blowing Kent up, then letting the Eagles take them down.

Much like last season, we look to be out of contention for a bye, but we could quite possibly be, again, that low seed that nobody wants to face.

Andrew Ruck
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RE: The Race for the 7th Seed

Posted: 2/16/2011 2:51:32 PM

The Optimist wrote:

Who looks like Georgetown this year?

Georgetown...Wouldnt that be something? Another 14/3.

Andrew Ruck
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Jeff McKinney
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RE: The Race for the 7th Seed

Posted: 2/16/2011 2:59:30 PM

Folks, Flomogenized also works part time writing "analytical reasoning" questions for the SAT and the GRE.

Looking at the standings, couldn't we also end up competing with CMU, EMU and Ball State for seeding; and clinching a first round home game?

mcbin
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RE: The Race for the 7th Seed

Posted: 2/16/2011 8:05:27 PM

Flomo & co, thank you for hooking us up on the seeding insight. I've been thinking about it a lot, but was going to wait another game or two before guessing. Because predicting the MAC is tough this year. Basically hoping I have to drive to Athens instead of one of the Michigan's during the middle of the week.

One thing I do wish for though.... If we end up 5-8th, I'm hoping the department is able to do whatever it takes to fill the Convo. $1 seats, halfcourt shots for $100... errr $10000. I don't care what it is. Players visiting cafeterias, blah blah... But I'd rather have more of a crowd than the last post season game we hosted.

anorris
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RE: The Race for the 7th Seed

Posted: 2/16/2011 8:09:15 PM

mcbin wrote:

But I'd rather have more of a crowd than the last post season game we hosted.

To be fair, the College Basketball Invitational wasn't going to excite many but the most hardcore fans. I think a MAC Tournament game with an NCAA bid potentially on the line might be a better draw. Plus, it would be held at a better time in the academic schedule.

mcbin
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RE: The Race for the 7th Seed

Posted: 2/16/2011 8:47:20 PM

Alex, I knew that would be an argument, and I agree with you to an extent. But I really think that other than student turnout, a big majority of our weekday attendance numbers come from season ticket holders. And if the season ticket holder group is depended on to call the ticket office the week of/before the game and pay full price, I'm guessing we'll have a low turnout, CBI or otherwise (I hope I'm wrong).

9 times out of 10 I'm all for getting the most $$ possible for the dept, but I think this is a situation where butts in the seats would be better than a few grand in the coffers.

In a perfect world, accommodations for this potential situation would have been covered in our season ticket forms, saying either we'd be charged again if we make a home game, or if the tickets would be included free if we get the home game. But since I don't think it was, I'm hopeful there's an incentive to get the fence sitters into the Convo if the time comes.

The timing (non-Spring break) part I am in full agreement with you on that, and didn't consider when thinking back to the CBI.

ben

anorris
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RE: The Race for the 7th Seed

Posted: 2/16/2011 8:58:35 PM

I admit my ignorance to the season-ticket issue. Does seem like there should be some mention of what the deal is up front when you get the tickets, but if there wasn't I'd say at least give them to regular season tix, and I'm 50/50 on if it should be given freely to the super-cheap family packs (but frankly, it wouldn't hurt to buy some goodwill).

The Brown game was actually finals week, not quite spring break, but a MAC tournament game would land on week 10 this year.

I would think also that familiarity of opponent may help, too, particularly if we would happen to draw an East team (which, frankly, is probably unlikely).

Last Edited: 2/16/2011 8:59:30 PM by anorris

TWT
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RE: The Race for the 7th Seed

Posted: 2/17/2011 1:25:25 AM

anorris wrote:

Much like last season, we look to be out of contention for a bye, but we could quite possibly be, again, that low seed that nobody wants to face.

As strange as it may seem the team is on pace for a better MAC record than last year. The team has gone 5-2 in its last 7 MAC games. In light of this 2-2 seems like a probable finish to MAC play and 3-1 out there as a possible. I don't think the team is quite as deep as last year though. In the front court, KVK is gone but Ivo is now producing at a clip equal to what he and KVK produced last year so that is about a wash. In the backcourt Freeman, Cooper return but Kellogg while quite good at his role is not a replacement in kind for Bassett. The chemistry could be there for a run in the MAC tourney in a year where the league is down talentwise.

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UpSan Bobcat
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RE: The Race for the 7th Seed

Posted: 2/17/2011 10:04:47 AM

If we get real hot and win out, chances are good we'd actually get a bye. Right now, fourth place overall in the MAC is a bunch of teams tied at 7-5. We're only one game out of a tie for fourth.

Of course, Central Michigan, who has the tiebreaker against us and plays an easy schedule against the West, is only one game back. If we drop into a tie with them, we could end up ninth and play a road game in the first round.

Had Kent State won last night, I think it would have been safe to assume they'd at least have a first-round bye, but now both they and Miami have three losses, and if either struggles down the stretch, they could end up losing that bye. Nothing much has been decided yet. We'll know a lot more after next weekend, but even then, things just aren't very predictable in the MAC this year.

Monroe Slavin
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RE: The Race for the 7th Seed

Posted: 2/18/2011 12:01:41 AM

I can absolutely for sure 100% guarantee you the playoff scenario: Just win. Don't matter what no one else do.

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