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Ohio Basketball

Topic: Plus/Minus

Topic: Plus/Minus

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Andrew Ruck
General User

Member Since: 12/22/2004
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 5,221

Status: Offline

Plus/Minus

Posted: 2/25/2011 3:29:08 PM

I found myself frustrated with the personnel at times Wednesday, fitting right in with my well documented belief that our top 5 are playing head and shoulders above the rest. It seemed when we didn't have 2-3 of those guys on the court, we struggled more. I realize much of this from last night was due to Baltic foul trouble and Cooper injury/discipline.

I was extremely curious to see how we did when certain players were on the court. Now I realize there are many haters of the "plus/minus" stat, and I don't need everyone to point out the many flaws in the stat. In a way, every stat is flawed...But to me, seeing how well we score/defend when certain players are on the court is insightful. I was so curious about last night in particular, I decided to run the numbers for our net score when each player was on the court. The results support my beliefs so much thatI wonder if I subconsciously fudged the numbers:

Freeman +19
Baltic +17
Cooper +11
Washington +9
Kellogg +6
Keely +1
Johnson -1
Tunji -2
Sayles -3
Hall -7

If I get some spare time, I might run these numbers on a few more recent games to see what it reveals. I've always found this "stat" interesting to look at, probably becuase I love over-analyzing rotations and playing time.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

OUs LONG Driver
General User

Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Copley, OH
Post Count: 678

Status: Offline

RE: Plus/Minus

Posted: 2/25/2011 3:51:04 PM

Any idea how many minutes that top group of 5 actually played together on Wednesday? In real-time it seemed like very little. That's the 5 I want running together as much as possible. Obviously the others play an important role but if we can get 20+ minutes out of that lineup I think we're tough to beat.

oubobcatjohn
General User

Member Since: 1/1/2005
Post Count: 825

Status: Offline

RE: Plus/Minus

Posted: 2/25/2011 11:09:59 PM

I saw a film of BYU star Jimmer Fredette on espn. The video shows this kid plays no defense. Its 5 on 4 at defensive end because he just stands there and does nothing. He doesn't get back on defense. NBA scouts likely will frown on him because he is a defensive liability. He scores 30 buts gives 20 or more a nite. He may still be plus 10 every nite, but that's because his offense can cover up his poor defense. Team will attack Fredette in the tournament. The better teams will score on him and negate his impact. Fredette can't guard a wall. BYU has an excellent supporting cast around Fredette so his team mates pick him up a lot on defense. He is a zero on defense. He looks so lazy its so funny. He just hovers around the arc waiting to get the ball and go on offense. Jimmer is the offense and the other 4 guy bust their tail off on defense to make up for Jimmer lack of defense. They are top 10 so I guess it works, but I wouldn't have BYU too far in my bracket. If we make the tournament I hope we draw BYU. The Bobcats with bigs who run the floor with Washington and Baltic plus the uber quick Cooper could really expose Fredette and BYU's transition defense. Bobcats are the type of team that if you don't get back on defense they will lay a 90 on you.

JSF
General User

Member Since: 1/29/2005
Location: Houston, TX
Post Count: 6,554

Status: Offline

RE: Plus/Minus

Posted: 2/25/2011 11:26:23 PM

Andrew Ruck wrote:

Now I realize there are many haters of the "plus/minus" stat, and I don't need everyone to point out the many flaws in the stat.

Won't... take... bait...

"Loyalty to a hometown or city is fleeting and interchangeable, but college is a stamp of identity."- Kyle Whelliston, One Beautiful Season.

My blog about depression and mental illness: https://bit.ly/3buGXH8

Andrew Ruck
General User

Member Since: 12/22/2004
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 5,221

Status: Offline

RE: Plus/Minus

Posted: 2/26/2011 10:39:57 AM

Bobcat Dragon wrote:

Andrew Ruck wrote:

Now I realize there are many haters of the "plus/minus" stat, and I don't need everyone to point out the many flaws in the stat.

Won't... take... bait...

Nah go ahead, we might as well get it out of the way especially if I decide to do this again. Give me the Mein Kampf of why this stat is so flawed and not even worth glancing at. Then I'll reply with a few concessions to your points, but a couple of my own, and an overall conclusion that it is still insightful to a certain extent.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

bigtillyoopsupsideurhead
General User

Member Since: 12/1/2006
Location: Cincinnati
Post Count: 1,926

Status: Offline

RE: Plus/Minus

Posted: 2/26/2011 10:58:43 AM

Andrew Ruck wrote:

If I get some spare time, I might run these numbers on a few more recent games to see what it reveals. I've always found this "stat" interesting to look at, probably becuase I love over-analyzing rotations and playing time.

No need to crunch any numbers, statsheet.com already has everything you could ever want.

Here is the +/- from the Winthrop game: http://statsheet.com/mcb/games/2011/02/19/ohio-77-winthrop-74/plus_minus

Here is more +/- from the Winthrop games, even breaks down +/- for each time a player is on the court: http://statsheet.com/mcb/games/2011/02/19/ohio-77-winthro...

If you go to a player's individual page you can find their +/- for the whole season too.

Here is DJ Cooper's page : http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/player/ohio/3-dj-cooper

Last Edited: 2/26/2011 10:59:57 AM by bigtillyoopsupsideurhead

Andrew Ruck
General User

Member Since: 12/22/2004
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 5,221

Status: Offline

RE: Plus/Minus

Posted: 2/26/2011 11:54:40 AM

Awesome...I thought you could only find this stuff on the NBA. Here is what they have for the season, also supports the "big 5." And is a pretty harsh stat for Asown, yikes... It said they dont have data for the Corpus Christi game.

Cooper +89
Baltic +85
Washington +59
Kellogg +45
Freeman +31
Keely 0
Johnson -4
McKinley -5
Adedeipe -7
Hall -11
Jacobs -12
Sayles -84

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

JSF
General User

Member Since: 1/29/2005
Location: Houston, TX
Post Count: 6,554

Status: Offline

RE: Plus/Minus

Posted: 2/26/2011 12:10:11 PM

Andrew Ruck wrote:

Bobcat Dragon wrote:

Andrew Ruck wrote:

Now I realize there are many haters of the "plus/minus" stat, and I don't need everyone to point out the many flaws in the stat.

Won't... take... bait...

Actually, I'll let Ken Pomeroy make the argument for me. I remember last year Reggie's 16 point, 20 rebound game at Akron ended up with like a -26. If I had to sum up my problem with the stat, it's that you're on the hook for everything that happens on the court whether you're involved or not. Doesn't make sense to me.

I think there is value in five-man plus/minus, but I've yet to find it in the college ranks.

cc-cat
General User

Member Since: 4/5/2006
Location: matthews, NC
Post Count: 3,948

Status: Offline

RE: Plus/Minus

Posted: 2/26/2011 12:53:51 PM

Like almost any stat or research number, taken on their own they can be misleading, flawed, self-interpretive, etc. The key is to look at info as a whole and in relationship to other data. Plus/minus is simply one of many ways of looking at production. Interesting numbers. Agree five man number would be interesting - a way of evaluating the coaching...arguably more/as well as the players. Only key number today is final score against Kent.

Last Edited: 2/26/2011 12:58:21 PM by cc-cat

Andrew Ruck
General User

Member Since: 12/22/2004
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 5,221

Status: Offline

RE: Plus/Minus

Posted: 2/26/2011 1:56:56 PM

There are only 5 players on the court. A great player makes it seem like you have 6, and a bad player can make you feel like you have 4. On a play by play basis, it is ludicrous to look at...and it even can be silly on a game by game basis. But over time, the little things that a player does has to show up in this stat. If a player is constantly making good things happen on both ends of the court, it will show up in this stat. If a player is constantly making key mistakes, committing dumb fouls, taking bad shots...It will show up in this stat. Individual contrubutions go into team success.

As the stat pertains to our current year Bobcats, it is tough to argue it's validity. I particularly like seeing it for the "first off the bench" type players and seeing how their insertion in the lineup plays out in the form of team results. As it pertains to our Bobcats, it shows that when we break away from our "top 5", it doesn't mean good things for us.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

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