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Ohio Basketball

Topic: Crucial Stretch

Topic: Crucial Stretch

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Voice of Reason
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Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/5/2011 11:46:38 PM

Four road games against respected mid-major programs. This stretch will have serious implications come postseason as the Tournament Committees (NCAA At-Large is a real possibility for the MAC this year) look at common opponents and ability to beat quality opponents on the road. We do well on this stretch and we are really in the conversation provided we perform come the MAC season.

Ohio69
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RE: Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/6/2011 10:45:29 AM

At large bids? That's just crazy talk.

But, I hear you. A big stretch coming up. Tough games for out Bobcats.

I'd add that it will also be fun reading the meltdowns here when we go 2-2 or something in these next games. The world will be ending. DJ Cooper the worst PG ever. Groce a terrible tactician. Keely/Baltic soft. Etc....

Can somebody hit a pull up jumper for me?.....

Voice of Reason
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RE: Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/6/2011 1:21:33 PM

At-Large is a real possibility if Kent, Akron and us continue to rack up wins. The conference has more signature wins in the month of November this year than we have had in a very in an entire season in a very long time. There is still a lot of games to be played and the rest of the season would have to go very well for those three, but the fact that it is a possibility at this point is a huge improvement. NBC even has Ohio in the tournament field as a 13 seed at-large bid right now (via Athens Post Twitter).

IF we beat Oakland (Respected Mid-Major with signature win vs Tennessee and cracks left at Mich and Zona), Portland (From respected Mid-major Conference), Wright State (Good non-conf road opponent) and lose to Northern Iowa, our RPI will still be Top 100 and maybe Top 50 and then take care of teams we should and we will be in a position. IF we beat Northern Iowa we will really be in the mix.

Now for this at large to happen, two of the teams with the best chance (Akron, Kent, Ohio) will have to advance to the conference tourney final and have solid MAC records. Kent may have had a chance at an at large a few years ago had they made the conference finals and lost to akron, but we beat them in the quarters. If you don't make the finals in the tourney you are done.

Voice of Reason
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RE: Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/6/2011 1:23:15 PM

Remeber...this is contingent on sustaining the success from the early season! That may be a big IF, but its an if we haven't sniffed in a while as a conference.

bobcatsquared
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RE: Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/6/2011 1:41:23 PM

VOR makes a point that is my argument every December on here when most posters state that the only games that matter are in the MAC tournament in March.

Why not try to win enough quality non-league games to position the MAC to earn more than the automatic bid to the NCAA tourney? The MAC teams will always be .500 overall in conference games. You make a name for yourself by winning games in Nov. and Dec. against teams from leagues at the MAC level or higher.

Ryan Molnar
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RE: Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/6/2011 2:00:10 PM

Ohio69 wrote:

Saying Ohio has an at large right now is crazy talk but saying Ohio has no shot at one overall is foolish. If Ohio can go into MAC play at around 11-3 or 14-2 and then win the MAC regular season then I think they'd have a pretty solid shot at an at large.

Voice of Reason
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RE: Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/6/2011 2:06:37 PM

Saying they have one right now is more for that special warm feeling inside. Obviously there is a lot of games to be played and our RPI is going to drop significantly in the coming months, but if the season ended today?...

Sorry just got that warm feeling.

Ryan Molnar
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RE: Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/6/2011 2:23:29 PM

Here's something to really make you crazy for an at-large (check East-Boston, Columbus pod):
http://beyondthearc.nbcsports.com/2011/12/05/kentucky-grabs-no-1-overall-seed-in-first-bracket-projection/

Voice of Reason
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RE: Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/6/2011 2:35:12 PM

That was what I was referring to above, but just didn't have the link. It makes me feel warm. How about you?

Ohio69
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RE: Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/6/2011 3:27:07 PM

The NCAA does not value MAC basketball. I think it will take 2-3 yeas of stellar play for the NCAA to award us an at large bid. I don't care what conference and team RPIs are come March. I just don't believe it will happen. Mainly because the MAC has been passed over in the past.

Can somebody hit a pull up jumper for me?.....

HeHateMiami
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RE: Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/6/2011 4:06:06 PM

Ohio69 wrote:

I both agree and disagree. A mediocre resume from this league will not get it done, we've seen that time-and-time again. Something like a 22-5 record with an impressive RPI probably would though.

Can we put together one of those resumes? Who knows, that's not what I'm arguing. I'm just saying that there's no sense in dismissing the possibility out of hand.

The Optimist
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RE: Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/6/2011 5:52:46 PM

Ohio69 wrote:

The MAC has played well enough so far to put the NCAA in a position later this year where they can't ignore the MAC. Now, some more things need to happen for the MAC to stay in this spot, but I'm not counting it out...

Oakland and N. Iowa are going to be very tough road games, not to mention some of the others we play before conference play starts.

I've seen crazier things happen.

anorris
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RE: Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/7/2011 12:38:52 AM

Ohio69 wrote:

It has nothing to do with valuing MAC basketball -- conference affiliation is not on the table when you discuss the teams in March. What is on the table are wins, quality wins, and strength of schedule. We have a handful of quality teams on our non-conference schedule. Nothing program-defining, but some quality programs that will likely finish fairly high in the RPI. We also have other programs in the conference like Akron and Kent who have put up some quality wins, which will raise their RPI and in turn, our SOS. That also means we could have a shot at those teams a time or two in conference, providing more opportunities for quality wins.

Obviously, it would require an unprecedented level of sustained consistency the likes of which we haven't seen in some time. But it is nice to think about, and with some of the conference's OOC wins, it is much more likely this year than it has been the past several, if things continue to play out in a similar way.

Wilson Hall Record Holder
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RE: Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/7/2011 2:34:19 AM

As much as I'd like to believe what we do this month can ultimately matter when it comes to at large bids, I think of one season.

The season of what was to be Gary Trent's last in Athens. We start undefeated and ranked in the top 20. We win the pre-season NIT defeating Virgina at their place and a woeful Ohio State team in their respective backyards. Trent personally goes for perfection in the NIT finals and did not miss a shot the entire game.

We lose to Kentucky in a close game that was our 1st as a ranked team. We go on to have a subpar MAC season and we don't win or even make it to the conference finals. We fail to get an at large bid even with one of the 10 best players in the country.

Someone please tell me how this season's opponents would have more sway than that year.

Quite simply any team hoping to gain an at large bid can't lose more than 5 or 6 total games all season and even then it's a far from a good position to be in without an automatic bid.

My opinion anyway

Ohio69
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RE: Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/7/2011 8:26:13 AM

anorris wrote:

It has nothing to do with valuing MAC basketball -- conference affiliation is not on the table when you discuss the teams in March. ....

You sucker !

Can somebody hit a pull up jumper for me?.....

JSF
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RE: Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/7/2011 8:52:59 AM

Ohio69 wrote:

anorris wrote:

It has nothing to do with valuing MAC basketball -- conference affiliation is not on the table when you discuss the teams in March. ....

You sucker !

This mindset that the NCAA has something against the conference is absurd and defeatist. Really? You really think the NCAA has it out for us? The MAC? Did we pee in their garden or something? When a new member of the selection committee is being trained, do they cover how to screw the MAC? They're happy to give out multiple bids to the Horizon or the Sun Belt or the WCC... but the MAC... NO WAY, SON.

This victim crying helps nothing. Bottom line: It's the conference's fault it hasn't gotten more bids. Kent State would have been an at-large in Al Fisher's first year... except they got the auto bid. Whoops. There have been other at-large quality teams that got the auto bid and didn't need it.

"Loyalty to a hometown or city is fleeting and interchangeable, but college is a stamp of identity."- Kyle Whelliston, One Beautiful Season.

My blog about depression and mental illness: https://bit.ly/3buGXH8

OUVan
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RE: Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/7/2011 9:37:20 AM

JSF wrote:

Bottom line: It's the conference's fault it hasn't gotten more bids. Kent State would have been an at-large in Al Fisher's first year... except they got the auto bid. Whoops. There have been other at-large quality teams that got the auto bid and didn't need it.

This^

There have been a few at-large worthy MAC teams since the last time we received an at-large bid. Unfortunately they keep winning the tournament. To get a bid a team has to do well in the OOC games but more importantly they have to win the regular season and get deep in the tourney. It's going to be tough this year because the East looks so damn competitive that I think it's going to be hard for one team to put up a huge in-conference record.

Last Edited: 12/7/2011 9:37:39 AM by OUVan

anorris
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RE: Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/7/2011 7:06:55 PM

Ohio69 wrote:

anorris wrote:

It has nothing to do with valuing MAC basketball -- conference affiliation is not on the table when you discuss the teams in March. ....

You sucker !

By all means, refute my point.

bobcat28
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RE: Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/7/2011 9:20:23 PM

This at large talk is nonsense.

But realistically, what is the over/under on how many wins it would take to get an at large bid. I would say 27 wins with a trip to the conf finals would put us in the discussion. That would put us around 27-6, hopefully a decent RPI if we continue to get help. Even at that I think we would be on the bubble.

OUVan
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RE: Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/7/2011 10:08:18 PM

bobcat28 wrote:

Under your scenario, assuming that we win the regular season. we would be in. No discussion. In. Find me a case where a resume like that has been left out from the MAC.

Wilson Hall Record Holder
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RE: Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/7/2011 10:26:24 PM

OUVan wrote:

bobcat28 wrote:

Under your scenario, assuming that we win the regular season. we would be in. No discussion. In. Find me a case where a resume like that has been left out from the MAC.

Find a MAC team that lost only 5 or 5 games on the season and DIDN'T win the mac tourney.

Better yet...find a MAC team that only lost 5 or 6 games all season period.

It seems as though the two of you are using different arguments to reach the same conclusion.

bobcat28
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RE: Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/7/2011 10:32:47 PM

Not sure about a MAC example. But teams from better conferences have been left out after having similar profiles. Just last year the following teams were left out:

Cleveland State - 26-8 RPI of 41
Missouri State - 25-8 RPI of 44
St Marys - 25-8 RPI of 48

Wilson Hall Record Holder
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RE: Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/7/2011 10:49:06 PM

You don't have to tell me about Cleveland St.

I remember long ago they had a record of 27-3 but their conference had no automatic bid. Yes they were left out though there were less teams in the tournament at that time.

I understand your point and I agree with it, though I think the wins from this conference so far will have some measurable weight.

The margin for error within the conference is practically zero however.

3 losses max if a teams wants to have even a slim hope of an at large bid.

UpSan Bobcat
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RE: Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/7/2011 10:52:53 PM

Here's something interesting I researched. Ohio's 6-1 start matches its best since 2005-06. The last time it went 7-1 was the 1969-70 season when it started 7-0 before losing for the first time.

Turney13
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RE: Crucial Stretch

Posted: 12/20/2011 11:35:42 AM

I wonder if people will change their tune if we win tonight...

Turney Duff
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