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Topic: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Topic: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

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Kevin Finnegan
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Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/23/2012 10:40:27 AM

With three games left, there are only eight scenarios left for Ohio. I believe these are how they would play out for Ohio.

3-0
Obviously best-case scenario gives us the #2 seed (barring a MAJOR Akron collapse, thus tie-breakers w/ Akron in case of tie for #1) and the triple bye all the way to the semi-finals.

2-1 (Wins over Akron and Kent St, loss to Miami)
At worst #3 seed, #2 seed if Buffalo loses again (they still have to go to Akron). Both the #2 and #3 seeds avoid #1 seed until finals.

2-1 (Wins over Kent St. and Miami, loss to Akron)
Very similar scenario. At worst, #3 seed, #2 seed if Buffalo loses again.

2-1 (Wins over Akron and Miami, loss to Kent St)
Throws a bit of a monkey-wrench into things. At worst the #4 seed and the double bye. Much would depend on KSU's match-up w/ Akron. After our game w/ Akron, we need to them to win out next week v. Buffalo and @ Kent. In that scenario, we would likely have a 3-way tie w/ Buffalo and Kent for 2nd place. My guess is we would get #2 seed, being 3-1 against those teams, Kent would be 2-2, Buffalo would be 1-3.

1-2 (Win home vs. Akron, losses on road to KSU and Miami)
Now we get into the more dire scenarios. If EMU won out (they still have two road games), they would finish w/ same record and hold tie-breaker over us. BGSU is not likely to win out w/ games still v. Kent and @ Buffalo, so we would likely be ahead of them. This likely scenario wuld put us either in the #4 spot or #5 spot. Those two are drastically different b/c of bye implications.

1-2 (Win @ Miami, losses to Akron and KSU)
Nearly identical scenario to the previous one. We would likely end up at the #4 spot, though #5 could be in play (EMU).

1-2 (Win @ Kent, losses to Akron and Miami)
This would make the last week of the season intense. EMU would still be in play. Our 2-0 record v. Kent would give us that tie-break, so their game v. Akron would determine our seed. This scenario could have us as high as #2 (though Buffalo would likely get that), as low as #5.

0-3
Catastrophic end to the season would give us the usual 9-7 MAC season. While we could still get double by w/ multiple losses by EMU and BGSU, we would likely fall in the #4/#5 spot.

Anything I missed?

OU_Country
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RE: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/23/2012 10:50:22 AM

Thanks for piecing all this together. I don't have the time today to do any of the research, but if there's a tie, doesn't head to head come into play as well? If so, wouldn't we finish ahead of UB in all scenarios where there's a tie with them?

Brian Smith (No, not that one)
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RE: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/23/2012 11:02:52 AM

Ditto on the appreciation for doing this, Finn. This is a nice primer/checklist to look at as the season winds down.

cc-cat
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RE: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/23/2012 11:06:56 AM

Thanks for this - also great base to use/update after we beat Akron and Kent loses to BG -

Others have stated head to head appears to be the first tie-breaker. Even if it is not (and it is record against rest of division, or 1st place team, 2nd place team, etc. ) being 2-0 versus the teams you are tied with is a huge advantage. That is why if we go 2-1 - we are very well served having one of those wins against Kent - plus it gives them the loss we would need them to have. we go 2-1 and beat Kent it means we need less help.

Regarding if we go 3 - 0 --- if Akron loses out, it appears we would win tiebreaker (head to head is wash), we would have better record against rest of division and better record working from top to bottom. Akron magic number is 1 - needs 1 win to solidify 1st place. Win at home against Buffalo being most likely.

Last Edited: 2/23/2012 11:18:04 AM by cc-cat

bobcat2nc
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RE: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/23/2012 11:19:11 AM

Thanks for the work on this. I try to work it all out in my head while on my morning walk/run. Lucky I don't run into someone or something.

Rooting for the best case scenario with Akron going 2-1. Bobcat v Zips in the finals!!!!!!

OU_Country
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RE: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/23/2012 12:06:57 PM

Tiebreakers from the MAC page.

Ozcat
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RE: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/23/2012 12:17:27 PM

I'll take the #2 or #3 seed. Avoiding Akron until Saturday night would be the most ideal scenario, imo.

cc-cat
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RE: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/23/2012 12:33:20 PM

Ozcat wrote:

I'll take the #2 or #3 seed. Avoiding Akron until Saturday night would be the most ideal scenario, imo.

Agree - winner goes to dance, loser goes to NIT (Akron would be automatic to NIT - we would be the very obvious choice should we come in 2nd in reg season and lose in finals to reg season champ).

C Money
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RE: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/23/2012 12:46:16 PM

Is it fair to say that we clinch at least #4 by wining one of the next 3 plus an EMU loss?

TheGreenFever
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RE: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/23/2012 12:54:30 PM

I think it's fair to say we've clinched at least the four by winning last night.

bigtillyoopsupsideurhead
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RE: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/23/2012 1:14:28 PM

What I want to know is the times for the semi-final games. Is it 7 and 9?

If so, I am hoping #1 Akron will be in 7 pm game, and #2/#3 will play each other at 9.

That will give me enough time to drive up to Cleveland after work Friday.

Ted Thompson
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RE: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/23/2012 1:53:31 PM

bigtillyoopsupsideurhead wrote:

http://www.mac-sports.com/portals/20/MAC/11-12MACBasketba...

The 1-seed plays at 7 and the 2-seed at 9:30.

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Tom Valentino
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RE: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/23/2012 2:04:12 PM

While I understand that the conference has the times already pegged on their bracket, I just can't imagine a scenario in which Kent and Akron meet in the semis in a 1/4 game and have it in the 7 p.m. slot. No doubt in my mind if that game happened, they'd get the late slot.

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Ted Thompson
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RE: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/23/2012 2:07:46 PM

Tom Valentino wrote:

Typically, the 1-seed wants as much rest as possible. I think the semis have been set this way for a long time.

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UpSan Bobcat
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RE: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/23/2012 2:12:08 PM

TheGreenFever wrote:

I think it's fair to say we've clinched at least the four by winning last night.

Not technically. If EMU wins out and Ohio goes 1-2 or Ohio loses out and EMU goes 2-1, the Eagles would have an edge. But that would depend on who else is in the tiebreaker with us (if Buffalo did the same as Ohio, that would change things because the Bobcats have that tiebreaker).

A win on Sunday would just about do it, and a win, along with an EMU loss, would officially clinch the top four for the Bobcats. As everyone else has said, 2 would be a much more desirable seed than 3, and 3 a great deal more desirable than 4. Of course, three games ago, I think many were thinking 4 might be a best-case scenario. Things can change quickly in two games or even just one.

Kevin Finnegan
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RE: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/23/2012 2:47:41 PM

If I did the numbers correctly, here's how things stand right now. If the season ended today, here are the MAC Standings:
1-Akron
2-Ohio
3-Buffalo/Kent
4-Kent/Buffalo
5-BGSU
6-Eastern Michigan
7-Western Michigan
8-Toledo
9-Miami
10-Ball State
11-Central Michigan
12-Northern Illinois

I don't know the current situation on the 3/4 and who would get what. While I haven't seen the entire breakdown of the brackets, I think I have it pretty much filled out. I know this is putting the cart well before the horse, but it's fun. Assuming the 3 is Buffalo and 4 is Kent, here are the teams we would see in the semis would be between: Buffalo, WMU, Toledo, Miami, Ball State. Other than Buffalo, not a murderer's row.

Man, I would love a final four of Buffalo v. Ohio and Kent v. Akron. That would be some good basketball.

Ted Thompson
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RE: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/23/2012 3:26:55 PM

finnOhio wrote:

Per Jeremy Guy:
1-Akron
2-Ohio
3-Buffalo
4-Kent
5-EMU
6-BG
7-Western Michigan
8-Toledo
9-Miami
10-Ball State
11-Central Michigan
12-Northern Illinois

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OUVan
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RE: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/23/2012 3:29:43 PM

UpSan Bobcat wrote:

Not technically. If EMU wins out and Ohio goes 1-2 or Ohio loses out and EMU goes 2-1, the Eagles would have an edge.

I think lost in all the excitement is the fact that we could lose each of a our three final games and 1-2 is a very real possibility. We have a tough row to hoe the rest of the way.

Ozcat
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RE: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/23/2012 4:37:07 PM

If we can't beat Miami, we don't deserve to go to the tournament period.

JSF
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RE: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/23/2012 4:42:42 PM

Ozcat wrote:

If we can't beat Miami, we don't deserve to go to the tournament period.

Sweet, Kent and Buffalo are out!

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Andrew Ruck
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RE: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/23/2012 4:49:45 PM

Any one buying the thought that a 3 seed may be preferable to the 2? We are deep and playing a team that hasn't played in a week after we pounded some crappy West team the night before sounds advantageous to me. I think it would help us in the semifinal but possibly hurt us in the final. But I think this team is in good enough shape and deep enough to play 3 straight nights without feeling it. Now 4 in a row would be a different story.

Andrew Ruck
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JSF
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RE: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/23/2012 5:22:06 PM

No. In an elimination format, playing fewer games is always advantageous. More time to rest, more chances for a better team to get knocked out so you don't have to play them. More importantly, it takes some of the randomness and chaos out of the equation for you. It's one less chance for your team to have an off night, one less chance for you to play an opponent on fire.

The less randomness, the better.

Ted Thompson
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RE: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/25/2012 3:53:03 PM

Miami trying to help Ohio in terms of securing at least the 3-seed. Tied with Buffalo at the half.

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oldkatz
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RE: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/25/2012 4:35:34 PM

Ted Thompson wrote:

Miami trying to help Ohio in terms of securing at least the 3-seed. Tied with Buffalo at the half.

Beefs announcer dropping some profanities during the break when he couldn't hear himself. Funny stuff for the game of the week.

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Kevin Finnegan
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RE: Possible scenarios and seeding for Ohio

Posted: 2/25/2012 7:55:51 PM

BGSU's blowout win over Kent sure helps our chances at the 2/3. Today had mixed results, with help from BGSU (though they're still mathematically alive for a bye), but the wins by EMU and Buffalo didn't do too much for us. A win at Kent would almost lock that 2/3 seed.

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