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Topic: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Topic: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

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UpSan Bobcat
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Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/28/2013 4:43:11 PM

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/blog/_/name/ncbexperts/id/8868359/buying-selling-ncaa-tournament-stocks-college-basketball

This story is a week old and is an ESPN insider article, but Joe Lunardi says to sell Ohio's tournament stock. Basically, he is just rating how which teams are way higher on his S-curve now than they were at the start of the season (Wichita State, Oregon, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Butler) and which ones are way lower (Memphis, Kentucky). Then he names three mid-majors who were on his S-curve but aren't anymore: Ohio, Drexel, Murray State. This is what he says on these teams:

This was to be a great season for veteran mid-major teams. Ohio was coming off a Sweet 16 appearance, Drexel won 29 games a season ago and Murray State returned both coach and star from a 31-2 campaign. Instead, Murray (Belmont) and Ohio (Akron) have been eclipsed in their own leagues and the wheels have all but fallen off for Drexel (6-11, 2-3 CAA). None are going anywhere without conference tournament titles, and none will be favored come Championship Week.

However, in this week's update, Ohio is on his top 100 at #88, a ranking he considers to be NIT bubble:
http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/blog/_/name/ncbexperts/id/8880352/kansas-jayhawks-lead-race-top-seed-college-basketball

One more link I found: http://espn.go.com/ncb/notebook/_/page/backtothebasket130128/back-basket-weekly-look-college-basketball

This is not an insider article. Akron named a place to be this week on the sidebar to the story.

Last Edited: 1/28/2013 4:58:58 PM by UpSan Bobcat

Diamond Cat
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RE: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/28/2013 4:51:01 PM

To think this team would just make the NIT is painful. Many things have happened thanks to Groce following the money. We all witnessed what a coaching change can do to even a veteran team. As I go up and down the roster, I see this as one of the greatest TEAMS OHIO has ever put on the court. That said, we seem to still be in the same MAC predicament.

OUVan
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RE: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/28/2013 4:59:07 PM

UpSan Bobcat wrote:

Instead, Murray (Belmont) and Ohio (Akron) have been eclipsed in their own leagues...

I must have missed Akron eclipsing us. They have essentially the same resume we do except one fewer road game. Their advantage is math, not performance.

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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RE: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/28/2013 5:11:53 PM

Diamond Cat wrote:

At this point last year we were 16-4 with losses to Robert Morris, Louisville, BG, and EMU.

Today we're 15-5 and undefeated in the MAC.

A single game in the loss column is really causing all of this dismay? We have been blowing teams out this year in a way we never did last year; we're just as well positioned now as we were then.

Columbus_Bobcat
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RE: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/28/2013 5:14:58 PM

Akron beat buffalo by 4 at home. We killed Buffalo and had what a 28 point lead at once till we put our reserves in. Akron was down by 20.

Ted Thompson
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RE: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/28/2013 5:26:29 PM

Diamond Cat wrote:

I would argue that last year's team was an NIT team. If Brian Walsh his the 15-footer with 9 seconds left in the MAC Championship Game, Ohio goes to the NIT. So this year it will come down to Ohio and Akron again. Ohio wins and they go to the NCAA and a loss puts them in the NIT. Same as last year.

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JSF
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RE: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/28/2013 6:11:05 PM

OUVan wrote:

UpSan Bobcat wrote:

Instead, Murray (Belmont) and Ohio (Akron) have been eclipsed in their own leagues...

I must have missed Akron eclipsing us. They have essentially the same resume we do except one fewer road game. Their advantage is math, not performance.

It's a good advantage to have, though.

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Jim Bob
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RE: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/28/2013 6:30:38 PM

honestly, we all know none of this matters... it all comes down to a couple days in cleveland...same as every year. we love to dream and hope that somehow if we beat Memphis or Oklahoma we will get an at-large, but it just isn't reality. Sure it would be nice to get regular season championship but in the end, as always, it all comes down to the tournament. no matter what Lanardi says.

Recovering Journalist
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RE: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/28/2013 6:47:09 PM

Tell me again why we're paying any attention to the clown who said we'd be a Hoya speedbump in 2010, that crAkron would win the MAC tourney last year, and that Michigan would oust us because we were spent from the MAC final?

Even if his opinion about MAC basketball mattered (i.e. if we were a multiple bid league), he's proven himself a worthless blowhard. He's the Herbstreit of basketball.

JSF
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RE: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/28/2013 6:51:08 PM

Jim Bob wrote:

Sure it would be nice to get regular season championship but in the end, as always, it all comes down to the tournament. no matter what Lanardi says.

Uh, that's exactly what he said, though.

west side cat
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RE: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/28/2013 6:54:37 PM

In a demented sort of way, being a one team league does make for a very exciting regular season. Wouldn't live and die with each game if you knew the prize was waiting regardless. Beat Akron, but most import at this point, beat EMU. Enjoy the ride.

perimeterpost
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RE: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/28/2013 7:24:42 PM

Akron is the Buffalo Bills of the MAC, good in the regular season, but choke in the Big Game. Keith Dambrot is Marv Levy, Alex Abreu is a little kid who roots for Doug Flutie because "he's short too", and Zeke Marshall is a fluffy pillow stuffed inside a Buffalo Bills pillow case.

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cathead
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RE: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/28/2013 8:22:14 PM

Thank you Perimeter ... Thank you

Hypatia
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RE: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/28/2013 8:33:51 PM

Recovering Journalist wrote:

Could not agree with you more. What's important now is to continue to play good basketball and shoot for the top 2 seeds. That double bye sure does help with things - especially if there are injuries or players need rest.

Focus on the positives now, work out the negatives, and play your best basketball when it counts most.

Period

TheBikeman
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RE: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/28/2013 9:07:10 PM

Now is the time for the 'Cats to play their best basketball. not December. Akron doesn't have much.

Last Edited: 1/28/2013 9:07:40 PM by TheBikeman

RSBobcat
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RE: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/28/2013 9:16:00 PM

I think it would be VERY hard to keep both 'Kron and OHIO out if:

1. Both win out balance of regular season vs A/O MAC opponents
2. One or the other wins both games home/away vs each other regular season games, then loses to the other in the MAC tourney final. Especially if all those games are 40 minute battles.

Both RPI's by the end of the season would likely be top 60-75 (assume both win Bracketbuster match ups). Both teams would have around 27 wins, and VERY strong late season runs - How do you keep both out?

What neither team can let happen - lose to anyone else in the MAC - lose Bracketbuster game (unless somehow end up w/a vs VERY high RPI team match up) through the rest of the year, and lose to the other team 3 times.

RS Bobcat

bobcat72
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RE: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/28/2013 9:21:30 PM

Only way we have a prayer of an at-large bid is to win out and lose to Akron in the MAC Title game. This would give us a 26-6 record. Even then, we're 90% out and NIT-bound.

None of this "bracketology" talk matters. At all.

OUVan
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RE: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/28/2013 9:30:47 PM

JSF wrote:

It's a good advantage to have, though.

It sort of is but unless they essentially run the table the math advantage doesn't matter. And all it will take is one game to undo that advantage.

OUVan
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RE: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/28/2013 9:35:37 PM

bobcat72 wrote:

Sorry but you are wrong. If we win out (which means going undefeated in conference) and lose to Akron in the title game, unless we get blown out in that game, we are in. Our RPI will be better than 50 with a 27-6 record and winning 19 of our last 20 including beating Akron twice. I seriously doubt it will happen but if it did we would be a slam dunk.

RSBobcat
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RE: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/28/2013 9:59:42 PM

OUVan wrote:

bobcat72 wrote:

Agree - on both points.

RS Bobcat

Monroe Slavin
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RE: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/29/2013 12:21:24 AM

I just like beating those 'kron in the MAC title game. That's your good fun.

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RSBobcat
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RE: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/29/2013 1:22:31 AM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

I just like beating those 'kron in the MAC title game. That's your good fun.

That is of course the most desirable scenario.

RS Bobcat

Eagle66
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RE: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/29/2013 8:19:27 AM

OUVan wrote:

bobcat72 wrote:

RPI Forecast puts us at 55 is we finish 25-5, they dont have any post season games factored in yet. But, I would hardly say a slam dunk. I remember a Dayton team at #30 a few years ago that was left out.

Casper71
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RE: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/29/2013 10:25:49 AM

All that matters is that you have a winning record and at least a 50-55 RPI. Then, you are in. If you don't meet both those criteria, you are probably out.

Recovering Journalist
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RE: Joe Lunardi is "selling" on the Bobcats in the tournament

Posted: 1/29/2013 10:30:41 AM

Casper71 wrote:

All that matters is that you have a winning record and at least a 50-55 RPI. Then, you are in. If you don't meet both those criteria, you are probably out.

That might be true for a power conference. It's not even close to true for a mid-major, and there are many examples of snubs that prove it. If the "win out, lose in the MACC" scenario played out, our resume would include a home loss to Winthrop, very likely zero wins against non-conference tournament teams, a terrible non-conference SOS and road record, and a bunch of wins against a pretty bad MAC. Sorry, but that's not a recipe for an at-large bid.

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