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Topic: Toledo At Large

Topic: Toledo At Large

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Andrew Ruck
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Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 9:07:01 AM

Toledo sits at 20-3. Their RPI is right around #25. Losses - @ Kansas (RPI #1) by 10, @ WMU (RPI #118) by 11, @ Ohio (RPI #75) in OT.

Their remaining schedule is light - @ EMU this Saturday being the toughest. Then BG, CMU, and NIU on the road...and EMU, WMU, and BSU at home.

The argument against them is their best win of the season was either against us last night or at Akron a month ago.

I think you can't leave them out as of right now. Remember, there are 4 more at-large teams than there used to be. I think they could lose 1 more, plus the MAC championship and still have a very good resume.

After the loss last night, I took comfort in the consolation prize of Toledo building their resume. I'll be rooting for them at EMU, and I think a win there followed by their win last night will help get them some top 25 votes. I would really love to see them get an at-large, preferably after we beat them in the championship. The conference needs to get this monkey off its back.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

The Optimist
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RE: Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 9:13:42 AM

EMU is big for them to get another Top 100 win. Their RPI isn't going to limit them even if they drop another game but quality wins are weak. Good news is there don't have any bad loses. I think they are in. Beating us yesterday was huge..

I've seen crazier things happen.

OUVan
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RE: Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 9:17:02 AM

I'm not sure they can afford two losses but if their only loss the rest of the way is the MAC Championship game then the MAC will have two teams dancing. But of their seven remaining games only two are gimmes (BSU & CMU). As we are well aware the MAC tends to eat its own.

GoCats105
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RE: Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 10:04:54 AM

They really remind of that St. Mary's team that got left out of the tournament a few years ago. The Gaels went 23-8 (11-3 in WCC) and had an RPI of 48 and didn't win their conference tournament. They mostly got left out because they didn't beat anyone of substance.

If Toledo wants to make the NCAA tournament, they better have the mindset of winning the MAC tournament or at least winning every game up to that point. The MAC has such little respect as a conference that every win counts. If they don't win it all, they'll end up 29-4. I don't care who you have or haven't beaten, if you win close to 30 games, you should make the tournament.

Personally, I think they drop at least one more game, probably EMU or BG, in the regular season. Losing only four games in the regular season should be enough, but you never know.

Ohio69
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RE: Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 10:12:00 AM

The first rule of the NCAA tournament selection committee is the MAC never gets an at-large bid.

Ever.

Can somebody hit a pull up jumper for me?.....

colobobcat66
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RE: Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 10:31:10 AM

Just when everybody said it couldn't happen, it may happen.

OUVan
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RE: Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 10:35:02 AM

Ohio69 wrote:

The first rule of the NCAA tournament selection committee is the MAC never gets an at-large bid.

Ever.

Do you mean except when they do?

100%Cat
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RE: Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 10:49:48 AM

If I were Toledo, I wouldn't count on it. Maybe if they run the table until the MAC final in Cleveland, they get in at-large, but the only sure way they are in is to win their way in at the MAC tourney.

bobcat28
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RE: Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 10:52:47 AM

Win out and lose the MACC they are firmly on the bubble.

Lose one regular season game and lose the MACC they are NIT bound.

UpSan Bobcat
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RE: Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 11:05:30 AM

I'm sure the RPI is going to drop, but as it stands, 25th with only three losses on the year is in, little question about it. But losing once or twice and just dropping in RPI due to schedule will drop them. I'm pretty sure Toledo would be in the tournament field if it doesn't lose until the MAC tourney. It might be able to afford a loss before then.

Andrew Ruck
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RE: Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 11:23:33 AM

Ohio69 wrote:

The first rule of the NCAA tournament selection committee is the MAC never gets an at-large bid.

Ever.

There have been several cases where the MAC would have likely had an at large if that team didn't win the championship.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

OUVan
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RE: Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 11:39:57 AM

Andrew Ruck wrote:

There have been several cases where the MAC would have likely had an at large if that team didn't win the championship.

Yep, there is no big conspiracy against the MAC. There have only been a couple of teams in the last ten seasons that were at large possibilities that didn't win the MAC tournament and they just didn't have the resume. Miami in 2005 won the regular season, had a good RPI but crapped the bed down the stretch, losing 5 of their last 9, including a terrible loss to a 200+ rpi Marshall team. The other one was the 2007 Akron team that had a very good record at 26-7 record but played absolutely nobody.

Pataskala
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RE: Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 12:02:01 PM

This time of year I think of one of the directional Missouri States a few years ago (SEMO or SWMO, I think). They didn't win their conference tourney but still had a top-30 RPI, and spent March watching the tube with the rest of us. Nothing is a gimme when it comes to NCAA bids.

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

UpSan Bobcat
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RE: Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 1:29:11 PM

Bucknell was a No. 11 seed last year with five losses in the regular season. Belmont was an 11 with six losses. Middle Tennessee was an at-large No. 11 with five losses. St. Mary's was a No. 11 at-large with six losses. I know the schedules and RPIs aren't exactly the same with Toledo, but I think it'd be at least somewhat comparable. If Toledo doesn't lose again aside from MAC tournament, I don't see how they get left out with only four losses on the year. One more loss and I'd say they still have a good shot. Any more than that, then they're probably not separating themselves from the rest of the teams in the league enough.

JSF
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RE: Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 1:30:43 PM

I hope an at-large comes soon just so the Chicken Littles will go away for a little while.

"Loyalty to a hometown or city is fleeting and interchangeable, but college is a stamp of identity."- Kyle Whelliston, One Beautiful Season.

My blog about depression and mental illness: https://bit.ly/3buGXH8

DallasCat
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RE: Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 1:33:56 PM

Lunardi says it won't happen :(

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=10449915&ex_cid=espn...

Ohio69
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RE: Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 4:08:46 PM

OUVan wrote:

Yep, there is no big conspiracy against the MAC.

Man will land on the moon for the first time before the MAC gets an at large again. Even Joe Lunardi knows it.

Did anyone catch how Lunardi talked up Richmond because of the wins they have inside their (vastly overrated) conference, but then disses Ohio's win over an RPI top 25 team because its an in-conference win over Toledo?

The NCAA hates the MAC because it plays in front of small time crowds. And some other things.

Just cause I'm paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get the MAC.....

Last Edited: 2/13/2014 4:12:03 PM by Ohio69

Can somebody hit a pull up jumper for me?.....

cbarber357
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RE: Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 4:48:55 PM

So Richmond is on the bubble but we can't be even though we beat Richmond on the road?

JSF
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RE: Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 5:21:28 PM

Ohio69 wrote:

The NCAA hates the MAC because it plays in front of small time crowds. And some other things.

You're not serious, are you?

"Loyalty to a hometown or city is fleeting and interchangeable, but college is a stamp of identity."- Kyle Whelliston, One Beautiful Season.

My blog about depression and mental illness: https://bit.ly/3buGXH8

OUVan
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RE: Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 5:33:00 PM

Ohio69 wrote:

OUVan wrote:

Yep, there is no big conspiracy against the MAC.

Man will land on the moon for the first time before the MAC gets an at large again. Even Joe Lunardi knows it.

Did anyone catch how Lunardi talked up Richmond because of the wins they have inside their (vastly overrated) conference, but then disses Ohio's win over an RPI top 25 team because its an in-conference win over Toledo?

The NCAA hates the MAC because it plays in front of small time crowds. And some other things.

Just cause I'm paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get the MAC.....

You may not be paranoid. You obviously just don't have any idea how this works. Joe Lunardi is ranking teams based on their current body of work. He is not forecasting it out. He does the same thing every year. Why do you think his field varies so much from week to week? If Toledo continues on their current pace they aren't going to get an at large because their current resume isn't enough. But if they win out (which is not their current pace just in case you are confused) and lose in the MAC championship game (presumably to Ohio, Akron, Buffalo or WMU) their resume will be significantly better than their resume is now. But right now Joe Lunardi is not predicting that Toledo is going to win out. He is basing his prediction on a Toledo team that is 20-3 not 29-4 (without a single bad loss, an RPI in the mid to low 20s and a 16-2 league record.). He is also comparing them against a bunch of other teams whose resumes will be significantly different than they are now.

I am not predicting this is what is going to happen. I'm just saying that if Toledo wins out and loses in the championship game they will be in the NCAA tournament and it won't even be close.

Casper71
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RE: Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 5:49:29 PM

I believe basically the last time I looked at these things you are "in" with an RPI in the 40s or less. They keep winning, they are in. They drop to RPI of 50 or more, they are out. It's really pretty simple.

OhioStunter
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RE: Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 5:53:55 PM

colobobcat66 wrote:

Just when everybody said it couldn't happen, it may happen.

I'm one that said it was very unlikely to happen -- for Ohio. I think Toledo has put itself in position to be a legit bubble team if they do everything right from here on in. The steps that the MAC has taken in the tournament (meaning Ohio vs. Georgetown, Sweet 16) to enhance the conference are almost negated by Akron's emasculating defeat to VCU last year, though.

At-large is tough.

This is a very good topic to discuss, Andrew.

Ohio69
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RE: Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 6:20:58 PM

Lunardi is right that the MAC doesn't schedule well enough to get at large bids.

Plus they just hate the MAC.

Can somebody hit a pull up jumper for me?.....

The Optimist
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RE: Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 6:25:49 PM

Casper71 wrote:

I believe basically the last time I looked at these things you are "in" with an RPI in the 40s or less. They keep winning, they are in. They drop to RPI of 50 or more, they are out. It's really pretty simple.

For the most part, I agree.

From 2011 when the tournament went to 68, most teams with an RPI Top 40 have gotten in. 40-50 has been firmly on the bubble with a couple questionable resumes (including mid-majors) getting in but some others being left out. 50+ RPI hasn't happened yet. I wouldn't rule out 50, 51 or 52 eventually getting in but it would be a stretch/rarity.

I think the committee more eliminates teams based on 50+ RPI then guarantees them a birth based on sub-40 RPI. I think quality wins are much more important. (top 100 rpi, top 50 rpi and wins over auto-qualifying teams to tournament)

The funny thing about that Lunardi video is his mention of Ohio... We didn't take care of business in the MAC which has put our RPI pretty firmly sub-50... It is too bad because with Richmond and Toledo we have 2 quality wins and as bad as loses to Oakland and BG are teams with worse loses (yes, mid-majors) have gotten in. I am very curious to see where our RPI ends up this year. I don't think we win out from here. Still should be able to hold Top 100 probably even Top 80. Win out, Top 60?

Last Edited: 2/13/2014 6:34:23 PM by The Optimist

I've seen crazier things happen.

perimeterpost
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RE: Toledo At Large

Posted: 2/13/2014 6:39:40 PM

Toledo only has 3 top 100 RPI wins-

#70 Ohio
#93 Cleveland St
#98 Akron

and there's no guarantee any of those teams will be in the top 100 at the end of the season. Splitting a series with us is their season's high point.

the only top 100 games left on Toledo's regular season schedule are-

#85 EMU
#85 @EMU

Toledo will have to play 2 games in Cleveland and lose the second one to be in a position to need an At Large bid.

Toledo's two opponents will likely be two of the following-

#70 Ohio
#85 EMU
#98 Akron
#112 Buffalo
#121 WMU

So even if Toledo wins from now until the MACC they will finish 29-4 with no more than 7 top 100 wins, and none better than #70. The RPI would still be around 30 but their lack of quality wins will hurt them.

Toledo's current record vs RPI top 50-
0-1

Toledo's current record vs RPI top 100-
2-2

The best case scenario for Toledo would be for Ohio to run the table and beat them in the MACC.

MY STATE. MY TEAM.

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