Ohio Football Topic
Topic: Official Game 2 Thread: Jacksonville St.
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Mike Johnson
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Mike Johnson
On Saturday, unexpectedly I had a treat when I turned on my TV a little before 6 pm. As I scrolled down the list of channels to see which games were televised, at the bottom it showed three games on a channel marked E. Ohio vs Jax was one of them. I wondered if that might have been a new arrangement that would have YouTube TV airing ESPN+ games.

That meant that I got to see both the Nebraska and Jax games. This question arose: How do you think Ohio's lines - OL and DL - will fare against the top remaining opponents?
Diamond Cat
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Mike Johnson wrote:expand_more
On Saturday, unexpectedly I had a treat when I turned on my TV a little before 6 pm. As I scrolled down the list of channels to see which games were televised, at the bottom it showed three games on a channel marked E. Ohio vs Jax was one of them. I wondered if that might have been a new arrangement that would have YouTube TV airing ESPN+ games.

That meant that I got to see both the Nebraska and Jax games. This question arose: How do you think Ohio's lines - OL and DL - will fare against the top remaining opponents?
It is a recent thing. From a YoueTube support site: "Subscribers to YouTube TV's base plan or standalone Sports package automatically receive full access to ESPN Unlimited content without paying an additional monthly fee."

If helpful, here is how to make it work:

If you are already paying for a standalone $30/month ESPN subscription, you must manually cancel it through ESPN or your phone's app store; linking the accounts will not automatically cancel your old independent billing.

Linking: Make sure you are logged into the Family Manager account on YouTube TV to activate the streaming benefit.

Open YouTube TV: Launch the YouTube TV Mobile App or open a Chrome browser on your desktop.

Go to Settings: Tap your Profile picture in the top right corner and select Settings.

Find the Sports Tab: Scroll down and select Sports (or Account Sharing depending on your app version).

Connect ESPN: Tap the toggle or button next to Connect ESPN.

Log into Disney/ESPN: A pop-up will prompt you to log into your My Disney / ESPN account. Enter your login credentials.

Authorize the Link: Select Agree & Activate to allow YouTube TV to access your ESPN Fantasy data and verify your free access.
Victory
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OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
LOWEST POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCY IN A WIN, WEEK 2:

Ohio > Jax State 15.1%
App State > ECU 28.7%
Tulsa > SHSU 36.0%
Ill St > NIU 37.9%
NDSU > Air Force 43.6%
Cal > Syracuse 44.6%
Michigan > OU 45.9%
UTSA > TXST 46.6%
Texas > Ohio St 50.2%

All games: https://t.co/STVGzhojp6&mdash ; Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) https://x.com/ESPN_BillC/status/2099098478320210174?ref_s...
With all due respect, Ted, I have no idea what this means. Can you 'splain it in plain English? "Postgame win expectancy" sounds like some post-hoc reading of minds of what people expected the margin to be, subject to all the frailties of human memory. I'm not trying to be cute. I'm truly baffled by what these figures mean.
I don't what goes into it, and I'll bet that Ted doesn't either, but if you get outgained by 185 yards then you usually don't win unless you win the turnover battle by 4 or 5. Let's just say that. A kickoff return helps but 2 blocked field goal attempts is usually the thing you'd find happeed to a team that found a way to lose with a +185 margin rather than the other way around. I am sure that this is the sort of thing Connelly is talking about. Also, while we did win the TO battle by 1, the turnover had no impact on the score except for it at least made sure that they didn't score before the half. We didn't score after it and the half ended so it had no impact on any subsequent drive field position.
You guys nailed it. It's a measure that takes all the key stats from a game — such as scoring, turnover margin, special teams performance, and opponent strength — and uses them to estimate the probability of that exact result occurring in a typical matchup.

Each time it looked like Ohio was going to lose in OT I promised myself I wouldn't get mad given all the circumstances (their missed FG at end of regulation, QB injuries, etc.).
OK, thanks, guys. Let me see if I can boil it down to its essence: This is a stat that calculates the probability of victory based on such things as turnovers, missed FGs, yards gained, passes completed, etc. So, given the stats in this game, Ohio only had a 15.1 percent chance of winning. Did I get that right?
Yes, I don't know if all of that goes into it or what all else does. I would imagine something like passes completed, if it is taken into account, probably doesn't have a lot of effect since the result of that shows up as yards gained. Having, as I said, messed with this sort of thing a little bit as a freshman in high school or so, and obviously at that point I wasn't going as deep as someone like Connelly probably is, I still feel pretty comfortable stating that the 185 difference in total yardage was by far the big thing here. You almost never win with that. I'd bet that turnovers are the second biggest component of a formula like this. Again, just based on some linear regression type of things that I did when I was about 14. This was before the internet and before I had access to a spreadsheet or anything like that....Pulling stats out of USAToday and doing calculations with a handheld calculator and notebook paper..... But yeah, If you tell me that you lost the yardage battle by 185 and don't tell me anything else about the game my first guess would be that you lost by 20 points, and knowing some other things that I have learned about football since then I'd say, yeah, knowling nothing else, I'd give you about a 15% chance to win.
OhioCatFan
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Victory wrote:expand_more
LOWEST POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCY IN A WIN, WEEK 2:

Ohio > Jax State 15.1%
App State > ECU 28.7%
Tulsa > SHSU 36.0%
Ill St > NIU 37.9%
NDSU > Air Force 43.6%
Cal > Syracuse 44.6%
Michigan > OU 45.9%
UTSA > TXST 46.6%
Texas > Ohio St 50.2%

All games: https://t.co/STVGzhojp6&mdash ; Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) https://x.com/ESPN_BillC/status/2099098478320210174?ref_s...
With all due respect, Ted, I have no idea what this means. Can you 'splain it in plain English? "Postgame win expectancy" sounds like some post-hoc reading of minds of what people expected the margin to be, subject to all the frailties of human memory. I'm not trying to be cute. I'm truly baffled by what these figures mean.
I don't what goes into it, and I'll bet that Ted doesn't either, but if you get outgained by 185 yards then you usually don't win unless you win the turnover battle by 4 or 5. Let's just say that. A kickoff return helps but 2 blocked field goal attempts is usually the thing you'd find happeed to a team that found a way to lose with a +185 margin rather than the other way around. I am sure that this is the sort of thing Connelly is talking about. Also, while we did win the TO battle by 1, the turnover had no impact on the score except for it at least made sure that they didn't score before the half. We didn't score after it and the half ended so it had no impact on any subsequent drive field position.
You guys nailed it. It's a measure that takes all the key stats from a game — such as scoring, turnover margin, special teams performance, and opponent strength — and uses them to estimate the probability of that exact result occurring in a typical matchup.

Each time it looked like Ohio was going to lose in OT I promised myself I wouldn't get mad given all the circumstances (their missed FG at end of regulation, QB injuries, etc.).
OK, thanks, guys. Let me see if I can boil it down to its essence: This is a stat that calculates the probability of victory based on such things as turnovers, missed FGs, yards gained, passes completed, etc. So, given the stats in this game, Ohio only had a 15.1 percent chance of winning. Did I get that right?
Yes, I don't know if all of that goes into it or what all else does. I would imagine something like passes completed, if it is taken into account, probably doesn't have a lot of effect since the result of that shows up as yards gained. Having, as I said, messed with this sort of thing a little bit as a freshman in high school or so, and obviously at that point I wasn't going as deep as someone like Connelly probably is, I still feel pretty comfortable stating that the 185 difference in total yardage was by far the big thing here. You almost never win with that. I'd bet that turnovers are the second biggest component of a formula like this. Again, just based on some linear regression type of things that I did when I was about 14. This was before the internet and before I had access to a spreadsheet or anything like that....Pulling stats out of USAToday and doing calculations with a handheld calculator and notebook paper..... But yeah, If you tell me that you lost the yardage battle by 185 and don't tell me anything else about the game my first guess would be that you lost by 20 points, and knowing some other things that I have learned about football since then I'd say, yeah, knowling nothing else, I'd give you about a 15% chance to win.
Thanks, I think I'm on the same page now with you and Ted on this stat. I was truly mystified at first. I'm also impressed with your early mastery of statistics. Were you a math major at OHIO? If so, what vintage? My father was a math professor, who retired in the 1980s.

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org
Victory
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OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
LOWEST POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCY IN A WIN, WEEK 2:

Ohio > Jax State 15.1%
App State > ECU 28.7%
Tulsa > SHSU 36.0%
Ill St > NIU 37.9%
NDSU > Air Force 43.6%
Cal > Syracuse 44.6%
Michigan > OU 45.9%
UTSA > TXST 46.6%
Texas > Ohio St 50.2%

All games: https://t.co/STVGzhojp6&mdash ; Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) https://x.com/ESPN_BillC/status/2099098478320210174?ref_s...
With all due respect, Ted, I have no idea what this means. Can you 'splain it in plain English? "Postgame win expectancy" sounds like some post-hoc reading of minds of what people expected the margin to be, subject to all the frailties of human memory. I'm not trying to be cute. I'm truly baffled by what these figures mean.
I don't what goes into it, and I'll bet that Ted doesn't either, but if you get outgained by 185 yards then you usually don't win unless you win the turnover battle by 4 or 5. Let's just say that. A kickoff return helps but 2 blocked field goal attempts is usually the thing you'd find happeed to a team that found a way to lose with a +185 margin rather than the other way around. I am sure that this is the sort of thing Connelly is talking about. Also, while we did win the TO battle by 1, the turnover had no impact on the score except for it at least made sure that they didn't score before the half. We didn't score after it and the half ended so it had no impact on any subsequent drive field position.
You guys nailed it. It's a measure that takes all the key stats from a game — such as scoring, turnover margin, special teams performance, and opponent strength — and uses them to estimate the probability of that exact result occurring in a typical matchup.

Each time it looked like Ohio was going to lose in OT I promised myself I wouldn't get mad given all the circumstances (their missed FG at end of regulation, QB injuries, etc.).
OK, thanks, guys. Let me see if I can boil it down to its essence: This is a stat that calculates the probability of victory based on such things as turnovers, missed FGs, yards gained, passes completed, etc. So, given the stats in this game, Ohio only had a 15.1 percent chance of winning. Did I get that right?
Yes, I don't know if all of that goes into it or what all else does. I would imagine something like passes completed, if it is taken into account, probably doesn't have a lot of effect since the result of that shows up as yards gained. Having, as I said, messed with this sort of thing a little bit as a freshman in high school or so, and obviously at that point I wasn't going as deep as someone like Connelly probably is, I still feel pretty comfortable stating that the 185 difference in total yardage was by far the big thing here. You almost never win with that. I'd bet that turnovers are the second biggest component of a formula like this. Again, just based on some linear regression type of things that I did when I was about 14. This was before the internet and before I had access to a spreadsheet or anything like that....Pulling stats out of USAToday and doing calculations with a handheld calculator and notebook paper..... But yeah, If you tell me that you lost the yardage battle by 185 and don't tell me anything else about the game my first guess would be that you lost by 20 points, and knowing some other things that I have learned about football since then I'd say, yeah, knowling nothing else, I'd give you about a 15% chance to win.
Thanks, I think I'm on the same page now with you and Ted on this stat. I was truly mystified at first. I'm also impressed with your early mastery of statistics. Were you a math major at OHIO? If so, what vintage? My father was a math professor, who retired in the 1980s.
No, not a math major. I had classes from six different math professors in the mid-nineties, but I probably never met your father.
SBH
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Nope. No details at all in the presser. Marty B. Asks incredibly lightweight questions. No analysis whatsoever.
OhioCatFan
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OhioCatFan
Victory wrote:expand_more
LOWEST POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCY IN A WIN, WEEK 2:

Ohio > Jax State 15.1%
App State > ECU 28.7%
Tulsa > SHSU 36.0%
Ill St > NIU 37.9%
NDSU > Air Force 43.6%
Cal > Syracuse 44.6%
Michigan > OU 45.9%
UTSA > TXST 46.6%
Texas > Ohio St 50.2%

All games: https://t.co/STVGzhojp6&mdash ; Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) https://x.com/ESPN_BillC/status/2099098478320210174?ref_s...
With all due respect, Ted, I have no idea what this means. Can you 'splain it in plain English? "Postgame win expectancy" sounds like some post-hoc reading of minds of what people expected the margin to be, subject to all the frailties of human memory. I'm not trying to be cute. I'm truly baffled by what these figures mean.
I don't what goes into it, and I'll bet that Ted doesn't either, but if you get outgained by 185 yards then you usually don't win unless you win the turnover battle by 4 or 5. Let's just say that. A kickoff return helps but 2 blocked field goal attempts is usually the thing you'd find happeed to a team that found a way to lose with a +185 margin rather than the other way around. I am sure that this is the sort of thing Connelly is talking about. Also, while we did win the TO battle by 1, the turnover had no impact on the score except for it at least made sure that they didn't score before the half. We didn't score after it and the half ended so it had no impact on any subsequent drive field position.
You guys nailed it. It's a measure that takes all the key stats from a game — such as scoring, turnover margin, special teams performance, and opponent strength — and uses them to estimate the probability of that exact result occurring in a typical matchup.

Each time it looked like Ohio was going to lose in OT I promised myself I wouldn't get mad given all the circumstances (their missed FG at end of regulation, QB injuries, etc.).
OK, thanks, guys. Let me see if I can boil it down to its essence: This is a stat that calculates the probability of victory based on such things as turnovers, missed FGs, yards gained, passes completed, etc. So, given the stats in this game, Ohio only had a 15.1 percent chance of winning. Did I get that right?
Yes, I don't know if all of that goes into it or what all else does. I would imagine something like passes completed, if it is taken into account, probably doesn't have a lot of effect since the result of that shows up as yards gained. Having, as I said, messed with this sort of thing a little bit as a freshman in high school or so, and obviously at that point I wasn't going as deep as someone like Connelly probably is, I still feel pretty comfortable stating that the 185 difference in total yardage was by far the big thing here. You almost never win with that. I'd bet that turnovers are the second biggest component of a formula like this. Again, just based on some linear regression type of things that I did when I was about 14. This was before the internet and before I had access to a spreadsheet or anything like that....Pulling stats out of USAToday and doing calculations with a handheld calculator and notebook paper..... But yeah, If you tell me that you lost the yardage battle by 185 and don't tell me anything else about the game my first guess would be that you lost by 20 points, and knowing some other things that I have learned about football since then I'd say, yeah, knowling nothing else, I'd give you about a 15% chance to win.
Thanks, I think I'm on the same page now with you and Ted on this stat. I was truly mystified at first. I'm also impressed with your early mastery of statistics. Were you a math major at OHIO? If so, what vintage? My father was a math professor, who retired in the 1980s.
No, not a math major. I had classes from six different math professors in the mid-nineties, but I probably never met your father.
Thanks for that information. You wouldn't have had classes from Dad, but undoubtedly you did have classes from professors that he recruited when he was chairman of the department, a posiiton he held more than once. Do you remember the names of any of your math professors?

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org
Victory
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Victory
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
LOWEST POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCY IN A WIN, WEEK 2:

Ohio > Jax State 15.1%
App State > ECU 28.7%
Tulsa > SHSU 36.0%
Ill St > NIU 37.9%
NDSU > Air Force 43.6%
Cal > Syracuse 44.6%
Michigan > OU 45.9%
UTSA > TXST 46.6%
Texas > Ohio St 50.2%

All games: https://t.co/STVGzhojp6&mdash ; Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) https://x.com/ESPN_BillC/status/2099098478320210174?ref_s...
With all due respect, Ted, I have no idea what this means. Can you 'splain it in plain English? "Postgame win expectancy" sounds like some post-hoc reading of minds of what people expected the margin to be, subject to all the frailties of human memory. I'm not trying to be cute. I'm truly baffled by what these figures mean.
I don't what goes into it, and I'll bet that Ted doesn't either, but if you get outgained by 185 yards then you usually don't win unless you win the turnover battle by 4 or 5. Let's just say that. A kickoff return helps but 2 blocked field goal attempts is usually the thing you'd find happeed to a team that found a way to lose with a +185 margin rather than the other way around. I am sure that this is the sort of thing Connelly is talking about. Also, while we did win the TO battle by 1, the turnover had no impact on the score except for it at least made sure that they didn't score before the half. We didn't score after it and the half ended so it had no impact on any subsequent drive field position.
You guys nailed it. It's a measure that takes all the key stats from a game — such as scoring, turnover margin, special teams performance, and opponent strength — and uses them to estimate the probability of that exact result occurring in a typical matchup.

Each time it looked like Ohio was going to lose in OT I promised myself I wouldn't get mad given all the circumstances (their missed FG at end of regulation, QB injuries, etc.).
OK, thanks, guys. Let me see if I can boil it down to its essence: This is a stat that calculates the probability of victory based on such things as turnovers, missed FGs, yards gained, passes completed, etc. So, given the stats in this game, Ohio only had a 15.1 percent chance of winning. Did I get that right?
Yes, I don't know if all of that goes into it or what all else does. I would imagine something like passes completed, if it is taken into account, probably doesn't have a lot of effect since the result of that shows up as yards gained. Having, as I said, messed with this sort of thing a little bit as a freshman in high school or so, and obviously at that point I wasn't going as deep as someone like Connelly probably is, I still feel pretty comfortable stating that the 185 difference in total yardage was by far the big thing here. You almost never win with that. I'd bet that turnovers are the second biggest component of a formula like this. Again, just based on some linear regression type of things that I did when I was about 14. This was before the internet and before I had access to a spreadsheet or anything like that....Pulling stats out of USAToday and doing calculations with a handheld calculator and notebook paper..... But yeah, If you tell me that you lost the yardage battle by 185 and don't tell me anything else about the game my first guess would be that you lost by 20 points, and knowing some other things that I have learned about football since then I'd say, yeah, knowling nothing else, I'd give you about a 15% chance to win.
Thanks, I think I'm on the same page now with you and Ted on this stat. I was truly mystified at first. I'm also impressed with your early mastery of statistics. Were you a math major at OHIO? If so, what vintage? My father was a math professor, who retired in the 1980s.
No, not a math major. I had classes from six different math professors in the mid-nineties, but I probably never met your father.
Thanks for that information. You wouldn't have had classes from Dad, but undoubtedly you did have classes from professors that he recruited when he was chairman of the department, a posiiton he held more than once. Do you remember the names of any of your math professors?
I took the main calculus sequence which was 4 classes under the quarter system, differential equations, statistics, matrix theory, and introduction to proofs. I had two professors twice. Unfortunately, I can only remember the last name of one of those two. It was Vanko.

EDIT: I found this page on the university website.
I know for sure that I had Eliot Jacobson, Robert Vancko, and Winfried Just
Last Edited: 9/15/2026 9:46:11 AM by Victory
OhioCatFan
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 15,977
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OhioCatFan
Victory wrote:expand_more
LOWEST POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCY IN A WIN, WEEK 2:

Ohio > Jax State 15.1%
App State > ECU 28.7%
Tulsa > SHSU 36.0%
Ill St > NIU 37.9%
NDSU > Air Force 43.6%
Cal > Syracuse 44.6%
Michigan > OU 45.9%
UTSA > TXST 46.6%
Texas > Ohio St 50.2%

All games: https://t.co/STVGzhojp6&mdash ; Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) https://x.com/ESPN_BillC/status/2099098478320210174?ref_s...
With all due respect, Ted, I have no idea what this means. Can you 'splain it in plain English? "Postgame win expectancy" sounds like some post-hoc reading of minds of what people expected the margin to be, subject to all the frailties of human memory. I'm not trying to be cute. I'm truly baffled by what these figures mean.
I don't what goes into it, and I'll bet that Ted doesn't either, but if you get outgained by 185 yards then you usually don't win unless you win the turnover battle by 4 or 5. Let's just say that. A kickoff return helps but 2 blocked field goal attempts is usually the thing you'd find happeed to a team that found a way to lose with a +185 margin rather than the other way around. I am sure that this is the sort of thing Connelly is talking about. Also, while we did win the TO battle by 1, the turnover had no impact on the score except for it at least made sure that they didn't score before the half. We didn't score after it and the half ended so it had no impact on any subsequent drive field position.
You guys nailed it. It's a measure that takes all the key stats from a game — such as scoring, turnover margin, special teams performance, and opponent strength — and uses them to estimate the probability of that exact result occurring in a typical matchup.

Each time it looked like Ohio was going to lose in OT I promised myself I wouldn't get mad given all the circumstances (their missed FG at end of regulation, QB injuries, etc.).
OK, thanks, guys. Let me see if I can boil it down to its essence: This is a stat that calculates the probability of victory based on such things as turnovers, missed FGs, yards gained, passes completed, etc. So, given the stats in this game, Ohio only had a 15.1 percent chance of winning. Did I get that right?
Yes, I don't know if all of that goes into it or what all else does. I would imagine something like passes completed, if it is taken into account, probably doesn't have a lot of effect since the result of that shows up as yards gained. Having, as I said, messed with this sort of thing a little bit as a freshman in high school or so, and obviously at that point I wasn't going as deep as someone like Connelly probably is, I still feel pretty comfortable stating that the 185 difference in total yardage was by far the big thing here. You almost never win with that. I'd bet that turnovers are the second biggest component of a formula like this. Again, just based on some linear regression type of things that I did when I was about 14. This was before the internet and before I had access to a spreadsheet or anything like that....Pulling stats out of USAToday and doing calculations with a handheld calculator and notebook paper..... But yeah, If you tell me that you lost the yardage battle by 185 and don't tell me anything else about the game my first guess would be that you lost by 20 points, and knowing some other things that I have learned about football since then I'd say, yeah, knowling nothing else, I'd give you about a 15% chance to win.
Thanks, I think I'm on the same page now with you and Ted on this stat. I was truly mystified at first. I'm also impressed with your early mastery of statistics. Were you a math major at OHIO? If so, what vintage? My father was a math professor, who retired in the 1980s.
No, not a math major. I had classes from six different math professors in the mid-nineties, but I probably never met your father.
Thanks for that information. You wouldn't have had classes from Dad, but undoubtedly you did have classes from professors that he recruited when he was chairman of the department, a posiiton he held more than once. Do you remember the names of any of your math professors?
I took the main calculus sequence which was 4 classes under the quarter system, differential equations, statistics, matrix theory, and introduction to proofs. I had two professors twice. Unfortunately, I can only remember the last name of one of those two. It was Vanko.

EDIT: I found this page on the university website.
I know for sure that I had Eliot Jacobson, Robert Vancko, and Winfried Just
I believe that Dad hired Dr. Just, not sure about the other two, though I know who they are. Every year we are invited to the "MathFest" that they have in spring because we get to meet the recipient of the graduate student scholarship that's in Dad's name.

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org
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