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Topic: Official Game 2 Thread: Jacksonville St.
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cbarber357
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Posted: 9/12/2026 10:19 PM
Victory wrote:expand_more
Oh my lanta.

Lost QB1, QB2, RB1 and DJ…?!

Nice W. That call for LD was exactly the right call (should’ve ran first).
We lost 4 of the worst players we could possibly lose, got outgained by 185 yards, surrendered some weird fluke plays, had 2 or our own field goals blocked, and gained, I think, 2 yards of net offense in 4 overtimes, and won the game. The math ain't mathin'

Happy we won. My guess is two concussed QB's are not playing next week. We'll have to find a way to win with a true freshman QB. Peden provided miracles lately. This is going to be a difficult road win.
I think Brune is the worst loss of them all. He hasn’t exactly been lighting up the stat sheet, but he has had a few solid runs and has made some gains on passing plays, meanwhile Rosa has been entirely unconvincing that he belongs on the field over Brown or Taylor. Hope he proves me wrong.

DJ loss is terrible but I think the rest of the defense can step up and while I’d prefer a more experienced hand than Levi Davis to be available at QB I think that kid could be special. Hopefully if he shows it we keep him in Athens for at least 2-3 seasons.
awrightdesigns
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Posted: 9/12/2026 10:27 PM
Good to win on The Frank! Loved the fight in this team, wasn't easy at times. Hope the injuries we saw tonight aren't too serious.
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WxM
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Posted: 9/12/2026 11:17 PM
cbarber357 wrote:expand_more
Oh my lanta.

Lost QB1, QB2, RB1 and DJ…?!

Nice W. That call for LD was exactly the right call (should’ve ran first).
We lost 4 of the worst players we could possibly lose, got outgained by 185 yards, surrendered some weird fluke plays, had 2 or our own field goals blocked, and gained, I think, 2 yards of net offense in 4 overtimes, and won the game. The math ain't mathin'

Happy we won. My guess is two concussed QB's are not playing next week. We'll have to find a way to win with a true freshman QB. Peden provided miracles lately. This is going to be a difficult road win.
I think Brune is the worst loss of them all. He hasn’t exactly been lighting up the stat sheet, but he has had a few solid runs and has made some gains on passing plays, meanwhile Rosa has been entirely unconvincing that he belongs on the field over Brown or Taylor. Hope he proves me wrong.

DJ loss is terrible but I think the rest of the defense can step up and while I’d prefer a more experienced hand than Levi Davis to be available at QB I think that kid could be special. Hopefully if he shows it we keep him in Athens for at least 2-3 seasons.

I agree. Rosa looks like he is running in quick sand. If Brune is going to be out, we have to give someone else a look. That's the bright side.

Glad to see the fight in the team.
mid70sbobcat
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Posted: 9/12/2026 11:52 PM
Player of the game has to be Darren James Hamilton.

97-yard kickoff return he probably ran 115 yards on from left corner to score in right end zone and then stops the potential tying 2-point conversion on the 6-inch line. He's one we need to keep around for a few years. I saw him play in HSa few times.
cbarber357
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Posted: 9/13/2026 12:08 AM
mid70sbobcat wrote:expand_more
Player of the game has to be Darren James Hamilton.

97-yard kickoff return he probably ran 115 yards on from left corner to score in right end zone and then stops the potential tying 2-point conversion on the 6-inch line. He's one we need to keep around for a few years. I saw him play in HSa few times.
Agreed. If DJ is out for a bit hope to see this kid continue to step up on defense.
Cats5
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Posted: 9/13/2026 12:08 AM
GroverBall wrote:expand_more
Yeah we’re gonna lose…
Maybe don't give up so damn early, or how about never
Yeah I’ll give you that. Dude was dumb to think that
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 9/13/2026 12:11 AM
I'm back from the game, and a bit cold and numb. Stayed out in the rain until the OTs and then went into the Sook Center, but went out on the balcony when the action was on that end of the field. This game had more weird turns than I can remember. We'd look totally inept one minute and then like world beaters the next, and then like Federal Hocking H.S. We were consistently inconsistent, but we had grit and we won the thing. I'm happy! GO OHIO!
The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org
OLineGuy74
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Posted: 9/13/2026 12:17 AM
M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
Oh my lanta.

Lost QB1, QB2, RB1 and DJ…?!

Nice W. That call for LD was exactly the right call (should’ve ran first).
Gritty, gutsy effort.

The kind of win that will galvanize a team. It could’ve went sideways a bunch of times but the guys kept fighting and Jax State kept making mistakes.

That was a physical football game!
shabamon
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Posted: 9/13/2026 8:03 AM
We just led off the first 30 seconds of College Football Final this morning. Shit rules. Shoutout to shirtless Jordan Bowens and Zay Mosley in the student section.
Ted Thompson
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Posted: 9/13/2026 8:03 AM

 

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Brian Smith (No, not that one)
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Brian Smith (No, not that one)
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Posted: 9/13/2026 8:21 AM
Culture win. There really wasn’t a reason for us to win that game after all those injuries and the missed kick other than those guys really didn’t want to lose.

I’m cool playing Jax State more. That’s a physical, stubborn team that would be worth seeing more of.
Ted Thompson
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Posted: 9/13/2026 8:27 AM

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bobcatsquared
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Posted: 9/13/2026 10:16 AM
The Jax St. defense came into this game having forced a turnover in 18 straight games, longest in the nation, per Lance McCallister. Ohio turned it over 0 times, ending that streak. Ohio, showing flaws on O and D but perservering through 4 overtimes, was only penalized 25 yards.

Loved watching the students, tarps off, running the distance of the football field from behind one end zone to the other on more than one occassion. I tried, but failed, to convince SBH to join them even though it's been many decades since he was a student.
Ted Thompson
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Posted: 9/13/2026 10:33 AM

 

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Victory
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Posted: 9/13/2026 12:01 PM
Ted Thompson wrote:expand_more
LOWEST POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCY IN A WIN, WEEK 2:

Ohio > Jax State 15.1%
App State > ECU 28.7%
Tulsa > SHSU 36.0%
Ill St > NIU 37.9%
NDSU > Air Force 43.6%
Cal > Syracuse 44.6%
Michigan > OU 45.9%
UTSA > TXST 46.6%
Texas > Ohio St 50.2%

All games: https://t.co/STVGzhojp6&mdash ; Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) https://x.com/ESPN_BillC/status/2099098478320210174?ref_s...
I don't know what Connelly's method is. I imagine that it more in depth that what I did. This is what I meant in my first comment in this thread when I ended all of the strange things that happened comment with, "The math ain't mathin'". I developed a method like this when I was about 14 or 15 years old, over 35 years ago, where a linear regression showed a difference in yards of about 9.4 was worth about a point and then did regressions for turnovers and special teams stuff to tack on to that just to see what basically a normal point differential would be looking a a box score. I haven't checked any of what I did then since them to see if it could be tweaks because I don't really care enough. But, Yeah, after looking at the boxscore after the game, I am not surprised that we are #1 in that statistic, which I had no idea existed, this week.
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 9/13/2026 1:03 PM
Ted Thompson wrote:expand_more
LOWEST POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCY IN A WIN, WEEK 2:

Ohio > Jax State 15.1%
App State > ECU 28.7%
Tulsa > SHSU 36.0%
Ill St > NIU 37.9%
NDSU > Air Force 43.6%
Cal > Syracuse 44.6%
Michigan > OU 45.9%
UTSA > TXST 46.6%
Texas > Ohio St 50.2%

All games: https://t.co/STVGzhojp6&mdash ; Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) https://x.com/ESPN_BillC/status/2099098478320210174?ref_s...
With all due respect, Ted, I have no idea what this means. Can you 'splain it in plain English? "Postgame win expectancy" sounds like some post-hoc reading of minds of what people expected the margin to be, subject to all the frailties of human memory. I'm not trying to be cute. I'm truly baffled by what these figures mean.
The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org
Victory
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Posted: 9/13/2026 1:42 PM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
LOWEST POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCY IN A WIN, WEEK 2:

Ohio > Jax State 15.1%
App State > ECU 28.7%
Tulsa > SHSU 36.0%
Ill St > NIU 37.9%
NDSU > Air Force 43.6%
Cal > Syracuse 44.6%
Michigan > OU 45.9%
UTSA > TXST 46.6%
Texas > Ohio St 50.2%

All games: https://t.co/STVGzhojp6&mdash ; Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) https://x.com/ESPN_BillC/status/2099098478320210174?ref_s...
With all due respect, Ted, I have no idea what this means. Can you 'splain it in plain English? "Postgame win expectancy" sounds like some post-hoc reading of minds of what people expected the margin to be, subject to all the frailties of human memory. I'm not trying to be cute. I'm truly baffled by what these figures mean.
I don't what goes into it, and I'll bet that Ted doesn't either, but if you get outgained by 185 yards then you usually don't win unless you win the turnover battle by 4 or 5. Let's just say that. A kickoff return helps but 2 blocked field goal attempts is usually the thing you'd find happeed to a team that found a way to lose with a +185 margin rather than the other way around. I am sure that this is the sort of thing Connelly is talking about. Also, while we did win the TO battle by 1, the turnover had no impact on the score except for it at least made sure that they didn't score before the half. We didn't score after it and the half ended so it had no impact on any subsequent drive field position.
Ted Thompson
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Posted: 9/13/2026 2:18 PM
Victory wrote:expand_more
LOWEST POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCY IN A WIN, WEEK 2:

Ohio > Jax State 15.1%
App State > ECU 28.7%
Tulsa > SHSU 36.0%
Ill St > NIU 37.9%
NDSU > Air Force 43.6%
Cal > Syracuse 44.6%
Michigan > OU 45.9%
UTSA > TXST 46.6%
Texas > Ohio St 50.2%

All games: https://t.co/STVGzhojp6&mdash ; Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) https://x.com/ESPN_BillC/status/2099098478320210174?ref_s...
With all due respect, Ted, I have no idea what this means. Can you 'splain it in plain English? "Postgame win expectancy" sounds like some post-hoc reading of minds of what people expected the margin to be, subject to all the frailties of human memory. I'm not trying to be cute. I'm truly baffled by what these figures mean.
I don't what goes into it, and I'll bet that Ted doesn't either, but if you get outgained by 185 yards then you usually don't win unless you win the turnover battle by 4 or 5. Let's just say that. A kickoff return helps but 2 blocked field goal attempts is usually the thing you'd find happeed to a team that found a way to lose with a +185 margin rather than the other way around. I am sure that this is the sort of thing Connelly is talking about. Also, while we did win the TO battle by 1, the turnover had no impact on the score except for it at least made sure that they didn't score before the half. We didn't score after it and the half ended so it had no impact on any subsequent drive field position.
You guys nailed it. It's a measure that takes all the key stats from a game — such as scoring, turnover margin, special teams performance, and opponent strength — and uses them to estimate the probability of that exact result occurring in a typical matchup.

Each time it looked like Ohio was going to lose in OT I promised myself I wouldn't get mad given all the circumstances (their missed FG at end of regulation, QB injuries, etc.).

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SBH
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Posted: 9/13/2026 3:25 PM
bobcatsquared wrote:expand_more
The Jax St. defense came into this game having forced a turnover in 18 straight games, longest in the nation, per Lance McCallister. Ohio turned it over 0 times, ending that streak. Ohio, showing flaws on O and D but perservering through 4 overtimes, was only penalized 25 yards.

Loved watching the students, tarps off, running the distance of the football field from behind one end zone to the other on more than one occassion. I tried, but failed, to convince SBH to join them even though it's been many decades since he was a student.
I was too busy correcting your spelling. Perservering is computer related...or at least on occassion?
M.D.W.S.T
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Posted: 9/13/2026 5:55 PM
So do we know the true extent of the cornucopia of injuries…?
Ted Thompson
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Posted: 9/13/2026 8:40 PM

M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
So do we know the true extent of the cornucopia of injuries…?


In the postgame press conference, Hauser said they would have an update on QBs at Monday press conference. I hope I'm wrong but Brune's arm looked bad. Walker was hopping around at the end of the game so am hopeful on him. But I can also see them resting everyone for two weeks to get ready for MAC play.

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OhioCatFan
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Posted: 9/13/2026 10:11 PM
Ted Thompson wrote:expand_more
LOWEST POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCY IN A WIN, WEEK 2:

Ohio > Jax State 15.1%
App State > ECU 28.7%
Tulsa > SHSU 36.0%
Ill St > NIU 37.9%
NDSU > Air Force 43.6%
Cal > Syracuse 44.6%
Michigan > OU 45.9%
UTSA > TXST 46.6%
Texas > Ohio St 50.2%

All games: https://t.co/STVGzhojp6&mdash ; Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) https://x.com/ESPN_BillC/status/2099098478320210174?ref_s...
With all due respect, Ted, I have no idea what this means. Can you 'splain it in plain English? "Postgame win expectancy" sounds like some post-hoc reading of minds of what people expected the margin to be, subject to all the frailties of human memory. I'm not trying to be cute. I'm truly baffled by what these figures mean.
I don't what goes into it, and I'll bet that Ted doesn't either, but if you get outgained by 185 yards then you usually don't win unless you win the turnover battle by 4 or 5. Let's just say that. A kickoff return helps but 2 blocked field goal attempts is usually the thing you'd find happeed to a team that found a way to lose with a +185 margin rather than the other way around. I am sure that this is the sort of thing Connelly is talking about. Also, while we did win the TO battle by 1, the turnover had no impact on the score except for it at least made sure that they didn't score before the half. We didn't score after it and the half ended so it had no impact on any subsequent drive field position.
You guys nailed it. It's a measure that takes all the key stats from a game — such as scoring, turnover margin, special teams performance, and opponent strength — and uses them to estimate the probability of that exact result occurring in a typical matchup.

Each time it looked like Ohio was going to lose in OT I promised myself I wouldn't get mad given all the circumstances (their missed FG at end of regulation, QB injuries, etc.).
OK, thanks, guys. Let me see if I can boil it down to its essence: This is a stat that calculates the probability of victory based on such things as turnovers, missed FGs, yards gained, passes completed, etc. So, given the stats in this game, Ohio only had a 15.1 percent chance of winning. Did I get that right?
The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org
100%Cat
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Posted: 9/14/2026 9:07 AM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
I'm back from the game, and a bit cold and numb. Stayed out in the rain until the OTs and then went into the Sook Center, but went out on the balcony when the action was on that end of the field. This game had more weird turns than I can remember. We'd look totally inept one minute and then like world beaters the next, and then like Federal Hocking H.S. We were consistently inconsistent, but we had grit and we won the thing. I'm happy! GO OHIO!
Don't bring the Lancers into this.
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 9/14/2026 11:19 AM
100%Cat wrote:expand_more
I'm back from the game, and a bit cold and numb. Stayed out in the rain until the OTs and then went into the Sook Center, but went out on the balcony when the action was on that end of the field. This game had more weird turns than I can remember. We'd look totally inept one minute and then like world beaters the next, and then like Federal Hocking H.S. We were consistently inconsistent, but we had grit and we won the thing. I'm happy! GO OHIO!
Don't bring the Lancers into this.
Sorry, maybe I should have said Parkersburg High School!
The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org
Diamond Cat
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Posted: 9/14/2026 12:46 PM
I hope Hauser gives injury updates on the weekly presser or Coach's Show tonight. BTW....is it not suspicious that the Vegas line of Ohio -2.5 actually worked if you took Jax State given all of the OT events? Crazy to me and just doesn't jive.

I was considered a "math-lete" back when Algebra was cool but I can't create any such formula that includes the proper inputs to produce that line under the circumstances.

Before some of the "passionate" BA characters go off on me, please use you indoor voice.
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