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Topic:  Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)

Topic:  Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
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Ted Thompson
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  Message Not Read  Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/16/2022 12:18:53 PM 

Use this thread to talk about anything game-related. For away games, we'll have a separate travel thread.

Date: January 18th, 2022 7:00 PM

Opponent: Miami (OH)  (8-7, 2-2 MAC)

Site: Millett Hall

TV: None

Radio: Ohio RadioThe Varsity Network App (free) or TuneIn Radio (pay)

Webcast: ESPN3

Miami (OH) statisticsroster and media guide

Miami (OH) Fan Site: MiamiHawkTalk


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Eagle66
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/16/2022 12:29:32 PM 
The Miami message board has moved to https://miamihawktalk.fans /
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Cellis033
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/16/2022 1:50:50 PM 
Will be interesting to see how we defend Dae Dae Grant and Mekhi Lairy. Both are two of Miami's biggest offensive threats this season.


Chase
OU Engineering Technology and Management '24
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Bringing the noise!

Muck Fiami
Kent read, Kent write, Can't be a state!
Bowling Green isn't a state either.

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JSF
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/16/2022 6:39:26 PM 
Miami home attendance by game: 1,163; 1,000; 1,147; 859; 7,285 (largest since 1999); 1,202; 722; 913.


"Loyalty to a hometown or city is fleeting and interchangeable, but college is a stamp of identity."- Kyle Whelliston, One Beautiful Season.

My blog about depression and mental illness: https://bit.ly/3buGXH8

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OU_Country
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/17/2022 9:59:31 AM 
JSF wrote:
Miami home attendance by game: 1,163; 1,000; 1,147; 859; 7,285 (largest since 1999); 1,202; 722; 913.


I wonder how much of that 7,285 were Cincinnati fans?
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shabamon
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/17/2022 10:16:50 AM 
A solid percentage, but the student turnout was monstrous.
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Recovering Journalist
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/17/2022 10:40:04 AM 
They nearly won that game against Cincinnati. Losing the next home game to Bellarmine probably killed any chance for building student enthusiasm.
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The Optimist
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/17/2022 10:54:49 AM 
shabamon wrote:
A solid percentage, but the student turnout was monstrous.


As society re-opens, I believe there is a monstrous opportunity to re-invigorate (or in Miami's case, invigorate) student support at many schools for sporting events. Most will fail to capitalize on this opportunity out of sheer incompetence. Miami surely will fall in this category.


I've seen crazier things happen.

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berniebobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/17/2022 11:28:35 AM 
Can't help noticing that the previous post came from "the Optimist."
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OU_Country
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/17/2022 12:38:52 PM 
The Optimist wrote:
shabamon wrote:
A solid percentage, but the student turnout was monstrous.


As society re-opens, I believe there is a monstrous opportunity to re-invigorate (or in Miami's case, invigorate) student support at many schools for sporting events. Most will fail to capitalize on this opportunity out of sheer incompetence. Miami surely will fall in this category.


Good to know shaba. I agree with you on this Optimist. I think there is a great opportunity, and I think it extends beyond just student support.
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OUVan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/17/2022 1:11:54 PM 
Eagle66 wrote:
The Miami message board has moved to https://miamihawktalk.fans /


Interesting thread about firing Jack Owens that devolves into whether they should drop basketball.
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/17/2022 5:45:27 PM 
What is the line going to be here? Maybe we are about a 2 point favorite?
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shabamon
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/17/2022 6:18:35 PM 
Gonna try to make it +1.
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/17/2022 7:39:35 PM 
shabamon wrote:
Gonna try to make it +1.


It has opened at Ohio -1. We are favored by the slimmest of margins.
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shabamon
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/17/2022 7:40:58 PM 
No I mean my son and I might go.
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greencat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/17/2022 11:41:14 PM 
Recovering Journalist wrote:
They nearly won that game against Cincinnati. Losing the next home game to Bellarmine probably killed any chance for building student enthusiasm.


Bellarmine was pretty good last season and even though they are barely over .500 right now, they did play @Purdue; @UCLA; @Gonzaga; @St.Mary's; and @MurraySt. who just demolished @Belmont by 22.

Since Bellarmine is in the hoops crazy Louisville area, they will (maybe) end up good. No reason they shouldn't. It's possible they could overtake Liberty as the A-Sun basketball power.
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71 BOBCAT
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/18/2022 8:21:57 AM 
I am quite surprised by the spread for this game Ohio -1. When I look at the Sagarin ratings we are 5 points better then Miami. So where do these people who make these spreads collect their info from?




GO BOBCATS
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Deciduous Forest Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/18/2022 8:37:09 AM 
71 BOBCAT wrote:
I am quite surprised by the spread for this game Ohio -1. When I look at the Sagarin ratings we are 5 points better then Miami. So where do these people who make these spreads collect their info from?




GO BOBCATS


They get it from us being on the road.

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Taiwan BC
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/18/2022 9:25:10 AM 
Torvik has us as .6 pt favorites. Does Vegas work with tenths? Torvik also has us ranked 18 or so in the "FUN" category, (I've mentioned it in previous posts) which means that we fare well in close games. We will see if that holds up. Having Miles back should mean that Mark will have a pinch more rest (Tommy playing more backup PG) which should help at the end of the game.

Go Bobcats! Meat Biami! Or something like that...
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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/18/2022 9:47:56 AM 
Taiwan BC wrote:
Torvik has us as .6 pt favorites. Does Vegas work with tenths? Torvik also has us ranked 18 or so in the "FUN" category, (I've mentioned it in previous posts) which means that we fare well in close games. We will see if that holds up. Having Miles back should mean that Mark will have a pinch more rest (Tommy playing more backup PG) which should help at the end of the game.

Go Bobcats! Meat Biami! Or something like that...


They work with half-points (0.5) and since teams can't score partial points, it really doesn't matter if it's 0.1 or 0.9, it has the same result -- if the favorite wins, the bookies pay off. I haven't seen just a half-point spread, though. It's usually 1.5 or something like that.


We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

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The Optimist
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/18/2022 10:20:38 AM 
Pataskala wrote:
Taiwan BC wrote:
Torvik has us as .6 pt favorites. Does Vegas work with tenths? Torvik also has us ranked 18 or so in the "FUN" category, (I've mentioned it in previous posts) which means that we fare well in close games. We will see if that holds up. Having Miles back should mean that Mark will have a pinch more rest (Tommy playing more backup PG) which should help at the end of the game.

Go Bobcats! Meat Biami! Or something like that...


They work with half-points (0.5) and since teams can't score partial points, it really doesn't matter if it's 0.1 or 0.9, it has the same result -- if the favorite wins, the bookies pay off. I haven't seen just a half-point spread, though. It's usually 1.5 or something like that.


Would be interesting to arbitrage that.


I've seen crazier things happen.

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longtiimelurker
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/18/2022 12:36:34 PM 
The Optimist wrote:

Would be interesting to arbitrage that.



I am lost. Mr Webster is not helping me.



Definition of arbitrage

(Entry 1 of 2)
1 : the nearly simultaneous purchase and sale of securities or foreign exchange in different markets in order to profit from price discrepancies
2 : the purchase of the stock of a takeover target especially with a view to selling it profitably to the raider


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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/18/2022 12:47:14 PM 
Taiwan BC wrote:
Torvik has us as .6 pt favorites. Does Vegas work with tenths? Torvik also has us ranked 18 or so in the "FUN" category, (I've mentioned it in previous posts) which means that we fare well in close games. We will see if that holds up. Having Miles back should mean that Mark will have a pinch more rest (Tommy playing more backup PG) which should help at the end of the game.

Go Bobcats! Meat Biami! Or something like that...


Yeah, so 5 from Sagarin is about right. Home field in college basketball is still around 3. So if we are 5 on a neutral court that is 2 on the road and 8 at home.

I have us at 72-71. Massey says 72-70. ESPN BPI actually says 51% for a Miami win. Vegas Over/Under is 143.5 so the implied Vegas score is 72.25-71.25. That should be more accurate of the very long run than any unbiased computer system. Vegas knows the computer predictions and if any system prived better than the line the line would just move closer to that system.

I have Ohio at about 5 or 6 points better than the average D1 team. OUr record 13-2 against our schedule would best imply a team that is more like 12 points above average. That difference is one of the very highest in the whole country. KenPom calls that luck in is ratings page. I have us even higher there than a Torvik or Pomeroy. In the end we probably have not played as well as our record indicates. We are going to have to avoid all these bad shooting games to keep winning games like this one every time.
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MonroeClassmate
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/18/2022 2:22:19 PM 
Victory wrote:
Taiwan BC wrote:
Torvik has us as .6 pt favorites. Does Vegas work with tenths? Torvik also has us ranked 18 or so in the "FUN" category, (I've mentioned it in previous posts) which means that we fare well in close games. We will see if that holds up. Having Miles back should mean that Mark will have a pinch more rest (Tommy playing more backup PG) which should help at the end of the game.

Go Bobcats! Meat Biami! Or something like that...


Yeah, so 5 from Sagarin is about right. Home field in college basketball is still around 3. So if we are 5 on a neutral court that is 2 on the road and 8 at home.

I have us at 72-71. Massey says 72-70. ESPN BPI actually says 51% for a Miami win. Vegas Over/Under is 143.5 so the implied Vegas score is 72.25-71.25. That should be more accurate of the very long run than any unbiased computer system. Vegas knows the computer predictions and if any system prived better than the line the line would just move closer to that system.

I have Ohio at about 5 or 6 points better than the average D1 team. OUr record 13-2 against our schedule would best imply a team that is more like 12 points above average. That difference is one of the very highest in the whole country. KenPom calls that luck in is ratings page. I have us even higher there than a Torvik or Pomeroy. In the end we probably have not played as well as our record indicates. We are going to have to avoid all these bad shooting games to keep winning games like this one every time.


If I was a betting man I'd take the under 143.5. In Miami's 15 games they are scoring an average of just under 74 points per game. This includes November victories over Lamar, Heidelberg and Defiance with scores in the 90's and one over 100. Against three MAC opponents they average 75.

Going with the trend, OHIO defense is stingy and Brown being back is an improvement vs when he was out. Secondly, the Bobcats win close and don't seem to put a team away so OHIO will score under 75. For this game the total IMO comes in at the under.

Go OHIO!

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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 16 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 1/18/2022 2:27:54 PM 
MonroeClassmate wrote:
Victory wrote:
Taiwan BC wrote:
Torvik has us as .6 pt favorites. Does Vegas work with tenths? Torvik also has us ranked 18 or so in the "FUN" category, (I've mentioned it in previous posts) which means that we fare well in close games. We will see if that holds up. Having Miles back should mean that Mark will have a pinch more rest (Tommy playing more backup PG) which should help at the end of the game.

Go Bobcats! Meat Biami! Or something like that...


Yeah, so 5 from Sagarin is about right. Home field in college basketball is still around 3. So if we are 5 on a neutral court that is 2 on the road and 8 at home.

I have us at 72-71. Massey says 72-70. ESPN BPI actually says 51% for a Miami win. Vegas Over/Under is 143.5 so the implied Vegas score is 72.25-71.25. That should be more accurate of the very long run than any unbiased computer system. Vegas knows the computer predictions and if any system prived better than the line the line would just move closer to that system.

I have Ohio at about 5 or 6 points better than the average D1 team. OUr record 13-2 against our schedule would best imply a team that is more like 12 points above average. That difference is one of the very highest in the whole country. KenPom calls that luck in is ratings page. I have us even higher there than a Torvik or Pomeroy. In the end we probably have not played as well as our record indicates. We are going to have to avoid all these bad shooting games to keep winning games like this one every time.


If I was a betting man I'd take the under 143.5. In Miami's 15 games they are scoring an average of just under 74 points per game. This includes November victories over Lamar, Heidelberg and Defiance with scores in the 90's and one over 100. Against three MAC opponents they average 75.

Going with the trend, OHIO defense is stingy and Brown being back is an improvement vs when he was out. Secondly, the Bobcats win close and don't seem to put a team away so OHIO will score under 75. For this game the total IMO comes in at the under.

Go OHIO!


It actually opened at 146.5. Maybe you should have gotten in on it then. It seems that a lot of people must have agreed with you.
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