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Topic: RE: Who are our opponents playing

Topic: RE: Who are our opponents playing

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The Optimist
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/24/2021 3:15:45 PM

Victory wrote:

Jeff McKinney wrote:

The Optimist wrote:

The MAC is in two tournament championship games tonight. Both tip at 8.

Toledo is set to play Coastal Carolina in the Nassau Championship after wins over Charlotte and Tulane.

Kent is set to play ETSU in the Naples Invitational Championship. Kent had wins over James Madison and George Washington while ETSU had wins over Murray State and Missouri State to make the finals.

This is encouraging for the MAC.

Like last season, the bottom four teams are killing the MAC. I'm surpriseD. I thought there would be improvement.

It looks worse than last year.

I have written many times over the years that if bubble caliber teams play on the road against teams ranked between 100-150 that there is still a close to 50/50 chance of losing. The committee doesn't give much credit for winning games like that so these are the sorts of games you want to avoid if you are looking for an at-large bid no matter who you are. The MAC schedules have always been full of games like that. Even Buffalo a few years ago, who was possibly a top 15 team, lost several road conference games. We all knew they would. Unless you are one of the true national title contenders, if you play close to a dozen games like that then losses will probably happen.

The MAC hasn't been a two bad league in about two decades but it could still rank with the better mid-major leagues because it often only had about 1 200+ ranked team that was a very likely win for the top teams. Last year there were four (the directionals). This year there might turn out to be six. WKU still wants to join the MAC apparently. If we can't do better than that then why would they want to?

However, This is might be a rare chance though to Ohio, Buffalo, Toledo, and maybe Miami to rack up a large win total for a change.

I was actually expecting worse from the bottom of the MAC thus far. CMU and WMU are bad, as expected. They�ve played tough schedules so their poor record thus far is as expected. EMU has exceeded my expectations. They played IU tight then beat a solid Illinois State squad. They lost by just 1 on the road at NKU. Shame they couldn�t pull that out. Then MSU beat them pretty good. They are playing WIU as we speak. That�d be a solid win. Vegas had them favored by 1/

NIU beat Washington to open the season which is probably the biggest surprise of the year for me this season in the MAC. That�s possibly a Top 100 win. They�ve played more like I�d expect since that game (badly)

Akron is the big letdown. They did win today but looked horrible in their last two loses. Wins by Toledo and Kent today will put them just outside the Top 100 in a lot of the rankings. Miami is in that area as well.

Ball State and BG aren�t good either, but they�ve at least managed to be competitive in all of their games

Last Edited: 11/24/2021 3:17:30 PM by The Optimist

I've seen crazier things happen.

bobcatsquared
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/24/2021 7:27:29 PM

Three thoughts from today's games and two questions:

1. EMU and coach Stan Heath have some really impressive frosh, led by guard Noah Farrahkan and 6-6 Golson. Did Antonio Gates play for Stan Heath at Kent? Golson reminds me of a left-handed version of Gates with more hair and hops. Farrahkan is the early pick for my MAC newcomer of the year.

2. UB finally replaces sloggish Bertram in the starting lineup with Skogman, a 6-10 shooter who can stretch the floor and allow Mballa more freedom to work the lane.

3. Is sloggish a word?

What is Flosports? And how can I access tonight's 8 p.m. games?

Last Edited: 11/24/2021 7:28:27 PM by bobcatsquared

OUcat
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/24/2021 7:32:39 PM

Yes ... Gates did play for Heath. And BTW, Gates is also left-handed!!!

El Gato Roberto
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/24/2021 7:36:48 PM

UB is dominating Illinois State. Gotta say, the MAC is looking to be solid this year at the top of the conference. Miami and Buffalo, in particular.

"The name's Ohio University, but everybody calls me Ohio. Any of you guys call me Ohio U, and I'll kill you."

shabamon
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/24/2021 7:50:33 PM

Flo sports is an online subscription service. Lots of high schools broadcast o. Their platform. I don't know if they have an app; I've only ever used them through a browser.

The Optimist
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/25/2021 9:29:25 AM

bobcatsquared wrote:

I didn't realize Farrahkan was a transfer until now. Saw him listed as a freshman and just assumed they recruited him out of high school but he was actually at ECU last year and was pretty heavily recruited out of high school.

I've seen crazier things happen.

Taiwan BC
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/25/2021 9:39:15 PM

Belmont rebounds from a 30 pt drubbing by LSU with a win over a very good Drake squad�

ohio9704
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/25/2021 9:51:52 PM

Taiwan BC wrote:

Belmont rebounds from a 30 pt drubbing by LSU with a win over a very good Drake squad�

I believe they get a 5-0 Iona team next.

greencat
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/26/2021 12:29:07 AM

Iona beat ranked Alabama.

I saw some of Drake - Belmont. I'm not sure Drake is so great. The guy they had guarding 6-11 Muszinski (sp?) looked like he was around 6-4 so moose rang him up for around 30. (After LSU held him to 5)

As far as Illinois State being good? Can't vouch for that. They were 7-18/4-14 last season (10th place) and 10-21/5-13 (9th place the year before). They were really good in 2016 but truth be told, haven't made the big dance since the 1990's when Stallings was the coach.

Last Edited: 11/26/2021 12:30:47 AM by greencat

Taiwan BC
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/26/2021 2:32:25 AM

Seeing that Drake is ranked no worse than 68th in the 4 major ranking services with two in the mid 40s, I would say that�s a good win for Belmont�

Last Edited: 11/26/2021 4:25:39 AM by Taiwan BC

greencat
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/26/2021 11:47:43 AM

Taiwan BC wrote:

Seeing that Drake is ranked no worse than 68th in the 4 major ranking services with two in the mid 40s, I would say that�s a good win for Belmont�

One of the RPI had Drake ranked #1 in the nation a while back... so much for the early season computer rankings. I'm pretty sure Gonzaga could give them a game.

The biggest positive for Belmont is that Drake is in the MVC which is the conference they are moving to next fall, bolting the OVC's well-deserved sinking ship. That's what the OVC gets for snubbing the University of North Alabama when they upgraded to FCS/D-1. But the win over Drake will restore some confidence after the boat-racing Belmont took at LSU which could have been taken as a preview of life after Muszinski who only had 2 points after the first few minutes. LSU was not even ranked but pretty sure they could beat Drake by 30 as well.

bornacatfan
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/26/2021 7:29:29 PM

LSU Penn St over on CBSSPORTS right now. Slogging to a 16 16 tie with 13 minutes gone. Ugly game right now but should give some idea of personnel and style before we see it vs OHIO

never argue with idiots, they bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.

Winter comes and asks how you spent your summer.....

The game loves and rewards those who love and reward the game

El Gato Roberto
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/26/2021 7:31:49 PM

Switching between LSU and the Belmont - Iona game. Belmont in charge, early.

"The name's Ohio University, but everybody calls me Ohio. Any of you guys call me Ohio U, and I'll kill you."

OUbobcat9092
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/26/2021 8:55:34 PM

Belmont beats Iona 72-65.
They will meet Dayton in the championship game. (Dayton upset Kansas)

Bring Back Men's Track & Field

El Gato Roberto
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/26/2021 9:01:03 PM

LSU - Penn State to OT.

"The name's Ohio University, but everybody calls me Ohio. Any of you guys call me Ohio U, and I'll kill you."

bornacatfan
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/26/2021 9:05:16 PM

El Gato Roberto wrote:

LSU - Penn State to OT.

Been a competitive game so far. I like them at 6-0 better than coming off a loss.

Taiwan BC
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/26/2021 11:26:30 PM

"One of the RPI had Drake ranked #1 in the nation a while back... so much for the early season computer rankings. I'm pretty sure Gonzaga could give them a game."

Greencat, RPI rankings that have only taken into account the first one or two game's results are essentially worthless. Sure. But, that isn't what I'm talking about. I'm talking about ranking services that have numerous ways to balance both recent performance with past performance.

Since I'm here, if anyone is interested, I will discuss the four that I like and, if anyone else has some they find useful, please let me know.

Sagarin and Pomeroy: Both of these are relatively close in their valuations. Both draw quite a bit of info from the previous years performance until there is enough data to only rely on this years info. I like Sagarin's better because, and this is just my opinion, Pomeroy seems to be a bit biased towards the power conferences. Also, Sagarin has a category listed as RECENT that puts more emphasis on, you guessed it, recent performance of a team. In defense of Pomeroy, if you are willing to pony up $20 or so each year, a whole range of options become available to examine and play with the data.

Massey Aggregate Rankings: I like this one because they have almost 30 different ranking systems that they average into a score for each team. It gives you a varied methodology component that one system just can't provide. It should help eliminate blind spots when examining the data.

Last but not least, my favorite site is Bart Torvik's site. It really has lot's of fun ways to examine and play with the data and, it's free. If anyone has access to Pomeroy's paid site and can compare it to this one, let me know what you think. It has lot's of cool little metrics to examine like F.U.N. Which is kind of like a luck measurement but, as this explains, sometimes it's not luck.
http://adamcwisports.blogspot.com/2015/12/introducing-fun...

Greencat, Of course, none of the sites I have listed exclusively use data from just this year.

Sorry for the thread drift y'all... I think Borna is spot on, good to see LSU pick up a close win as apposed to being ticked off when they play us!

El Gato Roberto
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/27/2021 9:43:40 AM

Thank you that is a cool site!

"The name's Ohio University, but everybody calls me Ohio. Any of you guys call me Ohio U, and I'll kill you."

The Optimist
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/27/2021 10:07:08 AM

Taiwan BC wrote:

Thanks for this post. I recalled someone (possibly you) posting Bart Torvik's site on the recruiting board awhile back but I couldn't recall the name! Similar to what you stated, I mostly use Sagarin early in the season as the RPI is pretty useless this early. (A couple weeks ago, I saw Kent at #1!)

...

With regards to Illinois State, I definitely wouldn't call them "good." My use of the word "solid" is very intentional. Anytime a directional can beat a team from the MVC, I will happily take it! My bar for EMU is very, very low.

I just looked at LSU's schedule and they've got a trip to undefeated Wake Forest between now and our game there. That'll be an interesting game. Belmont appears better than any of Wake's wins thus far.

I've seen crazier things happen.

The Optimist
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/27/2021 10:18:52 AM

Ahh yes, the championship of the renowned Emerald Coast Classic! CBS Sports at 7 PM EST.

https://www.emeraldcoastclassic.com/2021-schedule /

I've seen crazier things happen.

Victory
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/27/2021 10:39:11 AM

Taiwan BC wrote:

Greencat, Of course, none of the sites I have listed exclusively use data from just this year.

As has been noted on this site before, computers need data. To connect 360 teams they really need everyone to have 7 to 9 games against other D1s. So early in the season you have then average in preseason expectations, which slowly fade out in their weight over the first half, which defeats the main advantage of a computer in that it is unbiased and treats everyone the same, or you get a result that goes against human intuition.

Massey doesn't put systems with no bias in his comparison for the first couple of weeks. Now there are a handful that are running off of unbiased game data alone on the right side of the comparison. Minor differences in the question that the computer is trying to answer still lead to different results. Let alone the difference between an power ranking and an SOR ranking.

Last Edited: 11/27/2021 11:06:48 AM by Victory

El Gato Roberto
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/27/2021 2:33:31 PM

LSU and Wake Forest, both 6-0, play tonight.

"The name's Ohio University, but everybody calls me Ohio. Any of you guys call me Ohio U, and I'll kill you."

greencat
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/27/2021 3:32:27 PM

El Gato Roberto wrote:

LSU and Wake Forest, both 6-0, play tonight.

LSU by a bunch over Wake. WF hasn't really played anybody of note.

Oregon State is 1-5. The rest of that schedule, meh at best.

The Optimist
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/27/2021 5:07:06 PM

Miami falls to WIU.

Marshall plays @IU later tonight. Marshall is 4-1 but hasn't really played anyone. I'd expect IU to roll. Game is @7 on BTN

I've seen crazier things happen.

GraffZ06
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RE: Who are our opponents playing

Posted: 11/27/2021 10:47:23 PM

LSU over Wake 75-61. Going to take a good game by us to keep it below the 18 we lost to UK.

Indiana over Marshall 90-79.

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