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Topic: RE: Week 12 MAC schedule

Topic: RE: Week 12 MAC schedule

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ExCat21
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Member Since: 9/29/2014
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RE: Week 12 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/12/2025 11:15:48 PM

TWT wrote:

Ohio controls destiny over Miami & Buffalo so won't mention them.

With Toledo, Ohio has better loss Ball State 3-2 compared to BG 1-5. Ball State and BG didn't play each other so there is no head-2-head. Ball State has EMU, Toledo and Miami left so should finish ahead of BG.

With CMU, Ohio has the better loss Ball State 3-2 compared to 3-4 Akron. Ball State did beat Akron so has the head-2-head. Akron has BG remaining to play so could finish 4-4.

If Ball State defeats EMU on Saturday that would guarantee a 4th win and the tie-breaker over Toledo/CMU. From there Ball State needs to drop the Toledo and/or Miami games.

However if Ball State finishes 3-5 then Ohio might no longer finish with the tie-breaker over CMU and since Toledo didn't play UMass their remaining opponents have a higher record. But if Ball State finishes 6-2 (6% chance) they'll take Ohio's spot in Detroit. Ideal scenario would be if Ball State wins one more and that game is Toledo, handing them a 3rd loss at the same time settling all tie-breakers.

I believe if we win out, we can get in if Toledo beats CMU and then loses to Ball State or WMU loses it's last 2 games.

TWT
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Location: Alexandria, VA
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RE: Week 12 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/12/2025 11:25:06 PM

AlumDadDad wrote:

So right now it looks like a Toledo/WMU MACC game is most likely, unless a bunch of weird stuff happens. I think Toledo is the best team in the conference right now. They went into Oxford and thumped Fiami tonight. I don't think we would have done that. WMU is sitting on top right now because we shit the bed last night - they're too one dimensional on offense in my opinion.

Detroit odds looking at the tie-breakers.

WMU 90% (Miami does have tie breaker, WMU has to lose out for UT/OU)
Ohio 60% (Win out and have Ball win 1 of remaining 3)
Toledo 42% (vs. Ball and @CMU not easy)
Miami 15% (Win out need both Ohio & Toledo to lose)
CMU 10% (Win out and need Akron over BG & Ball to lose out)
Buffalo 8% (Win out and CMU drops 1 & BG over Akron)
Ball St 6% (have to win out against EMU, @Toledo, @Miami)

Ohio is benefiting massively by having UMass & Bufflo the final two games. Toledo has two tougher games to go plus a proable tie-breaker issue with Ohio.

Last Edited: 11/12/2025 11:54:16 PM by TWT

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TWT
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Location: Alexandria, VA
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RE: Week 12 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/12/2025 11:28:55 PM

ExCat21 wrote:

TWT wrote:

I believe if we win out, we can get in if Toledo beats CMU and then loses to Ball State or WMU loses it's last 2 games.

Ohio is in under those two scenarios but if Ball St defeats EMU and/or Miami then WMU can win out and Toledo can beat Ball St with Ohio still making Detroit because of Ball State having a better record than BG.

OhioCatFan
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Location: Athens, OH
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RE: Week 12 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/13/2025 12:43:12 AM

Thanks for all this deep analysis, guys. I've read every post in this thread, and my head is swimming because of all the possible machinations. Trying to simplify things, I think we need to win out, and then have Ball State and CMU each lose one more game. Winning out will insure that the Beefs also have another loss. In that case, we do to Detroit. Do I have that right?

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

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M.D.W.S.T
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Member Since: 12/23/2021
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RE: Week 12 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/13/2025 9:18:39 AM

TWT wrote:

Nice.

Path became a little clearer last night with Toledo taking care of business, but they were the sleeping giant I was worried about. They have a weak road to Detroit. Unless CMU can beat them. Which I doubt.

Unfortunately, we put ourselves in this position to have to worry about funny math and tie breakers. Ball State needs to win, but not toooooo much.

TWT
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Location: Alexandria, VA
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RE: Week 12 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/13/2025 11:24:47 AM

OhioCatFan wrote:

The tie-breakers over Toledo/CMU are predicated on Ball State finishing with a better record than BG and at least tying Akron which has 4 losses. Ball State locks up a better record if they can win against EMU on Saturday.

Winning out for Ohio has become more probable. UMass in Peden next week and right now I'd put Buffalo behind Kent/Akron as far as trending strength.

Pataskala
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RE: Week 12 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/15/2025 5:54:03 PM

Saturday final:

EMU 24-BSU 9

This drops BSU out of the race.

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

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