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Topic:  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?

Topic:  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
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JSF
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/17/2020 5:51:40 PM 
rpbobcat wrote:
I also find it amazing that,according to an article in today's WSJ, Milennials are the worst violators of "Social Distancing",they don't care.


But we know how to use commas.


"Loyalty to a hometown or city is fleeting and interchangeable, but college is a stamp of identity."- Kyle Whelliston, One Beautiful Season.

My blog about depression and mental illness: https://bit.ly/3buGXH8

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Alan Swank
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/17/2020 6:11:18 PM 
BillyTheCat wrote:
The view that billion dollar businesses are shutting down over a hoax is laughable.


Not a billion dollar business but rather large nonetheless, True Food Kitchen, a company that my sone works for in Austin, has shut down it's restaurants nationwide and has delayed all new openings including the one at Easton that was to open April 8 Oprah has a financial interest in the company. Seriously doubt that she's falling for a hoax. Agreed Billy, laughable.

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cc-cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/17/2020 6:15:31 PM 
JSF wrote:
rpbobcat wrote:
I also find it amazing that,according to an article in today's WSJ, Milennials are the worst violators of "Social Distancing",they don't care.


But we know how to use commas.


Or maybe they are just doing the math. They keep hearing about this doomsday scenario of hospitals being overwhelmed with corona cases. So far it hasn't been an issue. So you know....why sweat it...if I don't see it, I don't believe it. Maybe they're cynical. Embracing the old quote "Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely".

Perhaps they should embrace another old quote, "You can pay me now, or pay me later."

Translated as we can all do our part now, or get hit by a title wave later.

or then, maybe they all just graduated from the esteemed school of David Clark, Jr.

"GO INTO THE STREETS FOLKS. Visit bars, restaurants, shopping malls, CHURCHES and demand that your schools re-open. NOW!
If government doesn’t stop this foolishness...STAY IN THE STREETS.
END GOVERNEMNT CONTROL OVER OUR LIVES. IF NOT NOW, WHEN?
THIS IS AN EXPLOITATION OF A CRISIS."
— David A. Clarke, Jr. (@SheriffClarke) March 15, 2020 - the A stands for "Ass"

So do we listen to the experts or ourselves and our spouses? My view is that there is no way in hell Trump (and FoxNews) would have flipped 180 degrees on this if he wasn't scared to death (for his presidency) and also convinced) we could be in deep shit with this virus. But hey, maybe he is just frantic that three old, sick people that would have voted for him have died.

But then that doesn't explain MGM Grand, Apple, etc, closing their stores - maybe they just saw Anderson Cooper on TV and overreacted. What's a few $100 million in sales over the net month to them?

Last Edited: 3/17/2020 6:18:35 PM by cc-cat

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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/17/2020 6:29:48 PM 
rpbobcat wrote:
I also find it amazing that,according to an article in today's WSJ, Milennials are the worst violators of "Social Distancing",they don't care.


It's difficult to curb their hormones at their age.

I also find it interesting that when the White House and DeWine give briefings on the situation, everybody on the dais is shoulder-to-shoulder. No six feet of separation there.

I've been wondering about potential unexpected benefits out of all of this. One that I can think of is a possible slowing of global warming (another one of those "hoaxes"), at least in the short term. With a huge cutback in jet and motor vehicle traffic worldwide, we should see a significant reduction in CO2 emissions this year.

Last Edited: 3/17/2020 6:30:45 PM by Pataskala


We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/17/2020 7:44:31 PM 
cc-cat wrote:
JSF wrote:
rpbobcat wrote:
I also find it amazing that,according to an article in today's WSJ, Milennials are the worst violators of "Social Distancing",they don't care.


But we know how to use commas.


Or maybe they are just doing the math. They keep hearing about this doomsday scenario of hospitals being overwhelmed with corona cases. So far it hasn't been an issue. So you know....why sweat it...if I don't see it, I don't believe it. Maybe they're cynical. Embracing the old quote "Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely".

Perhaps they should embrace another old quote, "You can pay me now, or pay me later."

Translated as we can all do our part now, or get hit by a title wave later.

or then, maybe they all just graduated from the esteemed school of David Clark, Jr.

"GO INTO THE STREETS FOLKS. Visit bars, restaurants, shopping malls, CHURCHES and demand that your schools re-open. NOW!
If government doesn’t stop this foolishness...STAY IN THE STREETS.
END GOVERNEMNT CONTROL OVER OUR LIVES. IF NOT NOW, WHEN?
THIS IS AN EXPLOITATION OF A CRISIS."
— David A. Clarke, Jr. (@SheriffClarke) March 15, 2020 - the A stands for "Ass"

So do we listen to the experts or ourselves and our spouses? My view is that there is no way in hell Trump (and FoxNews) would have flipped 180 degrees on this if he wasn't scared to death (for his presidency) and also convinced) we could be in deep shit with this virus. But hey, maybe he is just frantic that three old, sick people that would have voted for him have died.

But then that doesn't explain MGM Grand, Apple, etc, closing their stores - maybe they just saw Anderson Cooper on TV and overreacted. What's a few $100 million in sales over the net month to them?


You may want to talk to someone in Washington State where the hospitals are over run and the system is breaking.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/17/2020 8:06:39 PM 
Where people get lost in thinking about problems like Coronavirus is that, for most people, it's not natural to think in terms of exponential functions; instead, we think linearly. Thus, if there are 100 deaths so far in the US, and this has been going on now for a month and a half, then by the end of April we'll be at 200, a tiny number compared to the flu, right?

Wrong. Epidemics actually follow Farr's Law, which is a bell curve, but in the early days, until, say 20-30% of the population has been infected, that is very similar to an exponential function. How does that work? The US had 35 cases on 2/23. The US had 321 cases on 3/5, so it took about 12 days to go up 10 times. On 3/15 it had 3777 cases, so it went up another 10 times in 9 days. Let's use ten days for the time to go up 10x.

If they US were simply to ignore it, and just let it take it's natural course, since the US currently has 5,723 cases, on March 27th it would have about 57,000 cases. By April 6 there would be 570,000 cases. By April 16th 5.7 million cases, and by April 26th, 57 million cases (actually less, because by then it would start to deviate to a bell curve, and no longer follow the exponential curve).

What would that mean for deaths? In a best case scenario, of optimal health care, it seems that deaths can be held down to about 1%. However, if the healthcare system becomes overloaded, and has to start just ignoring patients and letting them die, as happened in Wuhan and Italy, and as it starting to happen in Spain, not surprisingly, the death rate shoots much higher. In Italy it is currently 8%. In Wuhan it was running 6%. In Iran it is 6%. Spain is at 4.4% and climbing.

Once the US gets over about 50,000 cases, the hospital systems in some areas will be over capacity. By 1-200,000 cases, that will be true virtually everywhere. Thus, if the US chooses to simply ignore it, and decides that sporting events, and the right to dine out and visit bars is more important than the public health, the foreseeable end is some 60 million cases, and 5 million dead, and there really isn't any debate about that. Is 60 million cases a ridiculous number? There are typically 60m flu cases a year, so why would 60m Covid19 cases be unexpected?

So, which is a greater cost to society, and the economy? Closing bars and restaurants and businesses and temporarily crushing the economy, or letting millions die, and millions and millions get sick, some very sick, with perhaps permanent lung damage to retain as a memory?

As for the "it's just like the flu", well, um, no. 60 million people do get the flu every year, of which 20,000 die. It is perfectly possible for 60 million to get this, too, but the death toll would many magnitudes higher. It is very, very unlike the flu. But, but, but most will recover... Sure, 90% would recover, but of those, 10% would take 1-2 months to do so, and the rest 2 weeks minimum. The regular flu is much quicker.

Am I saying that 5 million are going to die? Absolutely not. We aren't going to let that happen. We are going to cancel large gatherings. We are going to wash our hands frequently. We are going to practice social distancing. And we are going to reduce the rate of spread dramatically, which will flatten the curve so that the hospitals don't get overloaded. That in turn will lower the death rate to probably between 1 and 2%. And, why are we going to do these things? Because the consequences of the alternative are too awful to even consider any other course of action. We don't need to repeat the disaster in Italy. We can learn from their mistakes, and do much, much better.

Oh, and what of the argument that "we don't need to do anything... it will vanish with summer"? Maybe it will, maybe it won't. I'm not optimistic. Supposing that I told you that the growth rate in new cases over the last week, in the following areas has been:
South America: 38.3% a day increase
Caribbean Islands: 34.0% a day increase
Central America: 32.8% a day increase
North America: 30.3% a day increase
Africa (except N. Africa): 30.2% a day increase
Europe: 22.6% a day increase
North Africa: 20.6% a day increase
Middle East 11.3% a day increase

OK, maybe it doesn't spread as fast in hot dry climates, but is still summer in the southern hemisphere, and it is spreading even faster there than it is here.

And, for those that don't grasp the seriousness of this, here's an article from the WSJ about the situation in Italy:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/every-day-you-lose-the-conta...

And, here's are more pieces of data to process:
1. China still reports 2622 patients in serious or critical condition. In the last month they have only reported about 4000 new cases. Thus, the vast majority of those in serious and critical condition have been hospitalized for over a month.
2. In cases outside of China, there have been 5035 deaths. There have also been 13,288 patients who have been declared as recovered. Thus, 27.5% of the cases that have been resolved outside of China have been resolved with a fatality. Does that mean 27.5% of people will die? No. It means that those that die, die fairly quickly, usually in about 2 weeks, while those that will recover have a very long struggle before they do, on average about 35-40 days.

Last Edited: 3/18/2020 11:51:16 AM by L.C.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/18/2020 1:01:05 PM 
I continue to be shocked to see Trump and Pence together. If one gets Coronavirus, likely both will, and while at least one will likely recover, during their illness, Pelosi will be the acting President.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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allen
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/18/2020 1:21:34 PM 
L.C. wrote:
I continue to be shocked to see Trump and Pence together. If one gets Coronavirus, likely both will, and while at least one will likely recover, during their illness, Pelosi will be the acting President.


I think that that they have ramped up their immune systems with something that has not come to market yet. Crazy opinion, but I believe it because Trump is still shaking hands with people, both he and Pence have come in contact with three people who have contracted the virus.


Nobody despises to lose more than I do. That's got me into trouble over the years, but it also made a man of mediocre ability into a pretty good coach. Woody Hayes

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Jeff McKinney
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/18/2020 3:09:27 PM 
L.C. wrote:
Where people get lost in thinking about problems like Coronavirus is that, for most people, it's not natural to think in terms of exponential functions; instead, we think linearly. Thus, if there are 100 deaths so far in the US, and this has been going on now for a month and a half, then by the end of April we'll be at 200, a tiny number compared to the flu, right?

Wrong. Epidemics actually follow Farr's Law, which is a bell curve, but in the early days, until, say 20-30% of the population has been infected, that is very similar to an exponential function. How does that work? The US had 35 cases on 2/23. The US had 321 cases on 3/5, so it took about 12 days to go up 10 times. On 3/15 it had 3777 cases, so it went up another 10 times in 9 days. Let's use ten days for the time to go up 10x.

If they US were simply to ignore it, and just let it take it's natural course, since the US currently has 5,723 cases, on March 27th it would have about 57,000 cases. By April 6 there would be 570,000 cases. By April 16th 5.7 million cases, and by April 26th, 57 million cases (actually less, because by then it would start to deviate to a bell curve, and no longer follow the exponential curve).

What would that mean for deaths? In a best case scenario, of optimal health care, it seems that deaths can be held down to about 1%. However, if the healthcare system becomes overloaded, and has to start just ignoring patients and letting them die, as happened in Wuhan and Italy, and as it starting to happen in Spain, not surprisingly, the death rate shoots much higher. In Italy it is currently 8%. In Wuhan it was running 6%. In Iran it is 6%. Spain is at 4.4% and climbing.

Once the US gets over about 50,000 cases, the hospital systems in some areas will be over capacity. By 1-200,000 cases, that will be true virtually everywhere. Thus, if the US chooses to simply ignore it, and decides that sporting events, and the right to dine out and visit bars is more important than the public health, the foreseeable end is some 60 million cases, and 5 million dead, and there really isn't any debate about that. Is 60 million cases a ridiculous number? There are typically 60m flu cases a year, so why would 60m Covid19 cases be unexpected?

So, which is a greater cost to society, and the economy? Closing bars and restaurants and businesses and temporarily crushing the economy, or letting millions die, and millions and millions get sick, some very sick, with perhaps permanent lung damage to retain as a memory?

As for the "it's just like the flu", well, um, no. 60 million people do get the flu every year, of which 20,000 die. It is perfectly possible for 60 million to get this, too, but the death toll would many magnitudes higher. It is very, very unlike the flu. But, but, but most will recover... Sure, 90% would recover, but of those, 10% would take 1-2 months to do so, and the rest 2 weeks minimum. The regular flu is much quicker.

Am I saying that 5 million are going to die? Absolutely not. We aren't going to let that happen. We are going to cancel large gatherings. We are going to wash our hands frequently. We are going to practice social distancing. And we are going to reduce the rate of spread dramatically, which will flatten the curve so that the hospitals don't get overloaded. That in turn will lower the death rate to probably between 1 and 2%. And, why are we going to do these things? Because the consequences of the alternative are too awful to even consider any other course of action. We don't need to repeat the disaster in Italy. We can learn from their mistakes, and do much, much better.

Oh, and what of the argument that "we don't need to do anything... it will vanish with summer"? Maybe it will, maybe it won't. I'm not optimistic. Supposing that I told you that the growth rate in new cases over the last week, in the following areas has been:
South America: 38.3% a day increase
Caribbean Islands: 34.0% a day increase
Central America: 32.8% a day increase
North America: 30.3% a day increase
Africa (except N. Africa): 30.2% a day increase
Europe: 22.6% a day increase
North Africa: 20.6% a day increase
Middle East 11.3% a day increase

OK, maybe it doesn't spread as fast in hot dry climates, but is still summer in the southern hemisphere, and it is spreading even faster there than it is here.

And, for those that don't grasp the seriousness of this, here's an article from the WSJ about the situation in Italy:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/every-day-you-lose-the-conta...

And, here's are more pieces of data to process:
1. China still reports 2622 patients in serious or critical condition. In the last month they have only reported about 4000 new cases. Thus, the vast majority of those in serious and critical condition have been hospitalized for over a month.
2. In cases outside of China, there have been 5035 deaths. There have also been 13,288 patients who have been declared as recovered. Thus, 27.5% of the cases that have been resolved outside of China have been resolved with a fatality. Does that mean 27.5% of people will die? No. It means that those that die, die fairly quickly, usually in about 2 weeks, while those that will recover have a very long struggle before they do, on average about 35-40 days.


Good post, L.C.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/18/2020 9:28:44 PM 
As expected, there has been an explosion in the number of confirmed cases this week. US confirmed cases are currently 9269, double the 4667 as of Monday night. If cases were to double every two days for the remainder of the month we would be over 1m cases by the end of the month. Is that likely? What is going on?

The answer is that the US finally has testing capability, and all the people with symptoms, who have been suspected cases, but who could not be tested before, are being tested. Once the testing backlog has been completed, the rate will slow substantially.

Also, all the actions to shut things down, and increase social distances will have an effect, too, but not right away. The time for symptoms to appear, and to reach the point at which people get tested is typically 4-14 days, probably averaging about 9. Since the changes started at the beginning of this week, by a week from today, we should start seeing a dramatic slowing in the rate of new cases. I'm hoping they drop to about 15% a day by next week, and half of that a week later.

If we can follow a sequence something like: 1.3,1.27,1.24,1.22,1.2,1.18,1.15,1.13,1.11,1.1,1.09,1.08,1.07

That would hold us to 65,500 cases by the end of the month, and hopefully only about 1100 deaths. Then, if we can keep the rate low, say 3% a day in April, and less in May, we can end up with only perhaps another 100k cases a month for awhile, and perhaps 1600 deaths a month. At that rate, by this time next year there would be a total of 1.3 million cases and 20,000 deaths, so it would end up being comparable to the flu in deaths, though far, far lower in total cases.

But, and here's a bright spot: In the process of stopping the transmission of COVID19, we will seriously put a crimp in the transmission of every major disease. We may see only 1m flu cases over the next year, instead of the usual 60m, and we may see only 300 deaths to the regular flu. Colds will also be a lot less common as well.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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allen
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/18/2020 10:15:18 PM 
This is absolutely crazy.
“Testing is limited. It will remain limited,” DeWine said Wednesday. “The vast majority of Ohioans who have symptoms do not need to be tested. ... The doctors tell us they want to test the sickest people.”

The 88 people confirmed with coronavirus range an age from 2 to 91, with a median age of 48.5, Acton said Wednesday.
The two year old is presumptively Quentin Poling’s daughter, that young man had to fight to get his family tested.
https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2020/03/mapping-88-...


Nobody despises to lose more than I do. That's got me into trouble over the years, but it also made a man of mediocre ability into a pretty good coach. Woody Hayes

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greencat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/18/2020 11:05:19 PM 
L.C. wrote:
I continue to be shocked to see Trump and Pence together. If one gets Coronavirus, likely both will, and while at least one will likely recover, during their illness, Pelosi will be the acting President.


Until Biden is elected and sworn in (according to all the new odds updated).

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackjones/2020/03/16/odds-fa...


Last Edited: 3/18/2020 11:06:33 PM by greencat

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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/18/2020 11:24:25 PM 
greencat wrote:
L.C. wrote:
I continue to be shocked to see Trump and Pence together. If one gets Coronavirus, likely both will, and while at least one will likely recover, during their illness, Pelosi will be the acting President.


Until Biden is elected and sworn in (according to all the new odds updated).

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackjones/2020/03/16/odds-fa...




LC you are assuming they are smart enough to realize that. Of course, Pence will probably just pray it away.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/19/2020 12:19:43 AM 
BillyTheCat wrote:
greencat wrote:
L.C. wrote:
I continue to be shocked to see Trump and Pence together. If one gets Coronavirus, likely both will, and while at least one will likely recover, during their illness, Pelosi will be the acting President.


Until Biden is elected and sworn in (according to all the new odds updated).

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackjones/2020/03/16/odds-fa...




LC you are assuming they are smart enough to realize that. Of course, Pence will probably just pray it away.

Actually, no. I'm assuming that the Secret Service is smart enough. That is their job.

allen wrote:
This is absolutely crazy.
“Testing is limited. It will remain limited,” DeWine said Wednesday. “The vast majority of Ohioans who have symptoms do not need to be tested. ... The doctors tell us they want to test the sickest people.”...

I can tell from dramatic jumps in new cases being reported the last couple days, plus anecdotal evidence, that the level of testing is much higher than it was a week ago. I'm guessing they will catch up on the people who need testing very quickly, provided that they don't run out of swabs. The swabs come from a company called Copan, in a hard hit part of Italy. The Air Force just flew 50,000 of them in from Italy on Monday, though, and they are being distributed across the country.

Last Edited: 3/19/2020 12:45:45 AM by L.C.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Andrew Ruck
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/19/2020 1:21:40 PM 
Curious what you do for a living LC. Right now I am assuming you work with lab coats, beakers and pipettes.


Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

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Mark Lembright '85
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/19/2020 3:21:17 PM 
It wouldn't shock me a bit if the numbers spike in bit in the next 2-3 weeks after the Spring Breakers in Texas and Florida come back home and potentially get family members sick.
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longtiimelurker
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/19/2020 4:39:55 PM 
Mark Lembright '85 wrote:
It wouldn't shock me a bit if the numbers spike in bit in the next 2-3 weeks after the Spring Breakers in Texas and Florida come back home and potentially get family members sick.



It would shock me if they did NOT! Kid in Darke Co brought it back acccording to friends close to the family.
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greencat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/19/2020 6:43:00 PM 
Mark Lembright '85 wrote:
It wouldn't shock me a bit if the numbers spike in bit in the next 2-3 weeks after the Spring Breakers in Texas and Florida come back home and potentially get family members sick.


Unfortunately, lots of these stubborn hipsters that can't stay off the beach for one spring one time will miss living the rest of their life if they end up 6 feet under. Hope it was worth it for a week of fun and games in the sun. Tickets to Vampire Weekend concerts next year will end up going for like $2 each when there are no hipsters left to buy tickets.

And they will all respond in unison... "OK BOOMER" as they puke and die.

Last Edited: 3/19/2020 6:43:49 PM by greencat

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Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/19/2020 7:04:12 PM 
greencat wrote:
Mark Lembright '85 wrote:
It wouldn't shock me a bit if the numbers spike in bit in the next 2-3 weeks after the Spring Breakers in Texas and Florida come back home and potentially get family members sick.


Unfortunately, lots of these stubborn hipsters that can't stay off the beach for one spring one time will miss living the rest of their life if they end up 6 feet under. Hope it was worth it for a week of fun and games in the sun. Tickets to Vampire Weekend concerts next year will end up going for like $2 each when there are no hipsters left to buy tickets.

And they will all respond in unison... "OK BOOMER" as they puke and die.


I don't think hipsters are going to Spring Break in Florida and Texas. Not quite the demo.
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spongeBOB CATpants
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/20/2020 8:35:11 AM 
Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:
greencat wrote:
Mark Lembright '85 wrote:
It wouldn't shock me a bit if the numbers spike in bit in the next 2-3 weeks after the Spring Breakers in Texas and Florida come back home and potentially get family members sick.


Unfortunately, lots of these stubborn hipsters that can't stay off the beach for one spring one time will miss living the rest of their life if they end up 6 feet under. Hope it was worth it for a week of fun and games in the sun. Tickets to Vampire Weekend concerts next year will end up going for like $2 each when there are no hipsters left to buy tickets.

And they will all respond in unison... "OK BOOMER" as they puke and die.


I don't think hipsters are going to Spring Break in Florida and Texas. Not quite the demo.


And the phrase "OK Boomer" isn't limited to just hipsters, its pretty much used by all millennials. Can't say I blame them when bad things are always blamed on our generation.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/20/2020 10:55:31 AM 
allen wrote:
Once we ramp up testing, we can see the numbers plateau like they did in China and South Korea. The administration was trying to control the numbers by having the cdc create guidelines to keep people from testing, it seems they have done a 180 and today they met with health insurers that are now encouraging people to get tested. Once we know who is positive, we can then conduct quarantines where needed and then the numbers will begin to plateau. China had 40 new cases yesterday, they are basically out of the woods.

Testing is only part of it. Yes, absolutely you need to have to know who has it, but that's just the start. You need two other things. You need limited social contact, and you need effective quarantining. If you have people who don't care, and say "it's an old person problem, it doesn't apply to us", those people will keep it spreading, and it won't be contained. If you have people that ignore their quarantine, and continue going out in public infected, it won't be contained.

Even countries that have excellent testing, and which have done a good job in containment still see cases growing in occasional bursts. Singapore today announced 40 new cases, an 11% jump. Hong Kong announced 48 new cases, a 23% jump. Both were their biggest increases in quite awhile. This is likely to be an ongoing battle until such time as a vaccine is available.

As for China? Who knows how accurate their data is. The data may be propaganda, not fact, but even it is real, it is only proves that they can use their authoritarian power to force people to stay quarantined. We can't do that here, so we can never hope to accomplish the same.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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SBH
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/20/2020 10:59:29 AM 
One small bit of good news is that the stupid kid from Milford who is all over the news due to his spring break interview is not an Ohio student. I was worried when I saw he was wearing a green ball cap backwards. Turns out his parents are Ohio alums but he is pursuing a career in rap music. :)

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Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/20/2020 11:08:10 AM 
L.C. wrote:
allen wrote:
Once we ramp up testing, we can see the numbers plateau like they did in China and South Korea. The administration was trying to control the numbers by having the cdc create guidelines to keep people from testing, it seems they have done a 180 and today they met with health insurers that are now encouraging people to get tested. Once we know who is positive, we can then conduct quarantines where needed and then the numbers will begin to plateau. China had 40 new cases yesterday, they are basically out of the woods.

Testing is only part of it. Yes, absolutely you need to have to know who has it, but that's just the start. You need two other things. You need limited social contact, and you need effective quarantining. If you have people who don't care, and say "it's an old person problem, it doesn't apply to us", those people will keep it spreading, and it won't be contained. If you have people that ignore their quarantine, and continue going out in public infected, it won't be contained.

Even countries that have excellent testing, and which have done a good job in containment still see cases growing in occasional bursts. Singapore today announced 40 new cases, an 11% jump. Hong Kong announced 48 new cases, a 23% jump. Both were their biggest increases in quite awhile. This is likely to be an ongoing battle until such time as a vaccine is available.

As for China? Who knows how accurate their data is. The data may be propaganda, not fact, but even it is real, it is only proves that they can use their authoritarian power to force people to stay quarantined. We can't do that here, so we can never hope to accomplish the same.


Agree with all of this, but will add that testing is the most important part of this. To return to some level of normalcy, we have to be able to track this and know who is infected and who isn't. We need to know who needs to be quarantined, be able to identify high risk areas, and reduce the rate of spread. From what I've read, in it's 'natural state' Covid 19 carriers infect between 2 and 3 people. The only way to reduce that number is through quarantining and social distancing, and the only way to be truly effective in doing so (outside of totalitarianism) is to have reliable, accurate insight into who is infected. We need broad testing available to anybody, and we need it a month ago.

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allen
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/20/2020 11:18:28 AM 
Michigan’s cases went up by 300% yesterday, New York’s cases went up 115% and New Jersey’s (where we have an insider who said it is a hoax to get federal money) cases went up 165% yesterday. If we all stay home and follow the guidelines for 14 days most that are sick will be able to get tested and quarantine and we can stop the exponential spreading of the virus.


Nobody despises to lose more than I do. That's got me into trouble over the years, but it also made a man of mediocre ability into a pretty good coach. Woody Hayes

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Coronavirus and the conference tourneys?
   Posted: 3/20/2020 12:03:38 PM 
Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:
Agree with all of this, but will add that testing is the most important part of this. To return to some level of normalcy, we have to be able to track this and know who is infected and who isn't. We need to know who needs to be quarantined, be able to identify high risk areas, and reduce the rate of spread. From what I've read, in it's 'natural state' Covid 19 carriers infect between 2 and 3 people. The only way to reduce that number is through quarantining and social distancing, and the only way to be truly effective in doing so (outside of totalitarianism) is to have reliable, accurate insight into who is infected. We need broad testing available to anybody, and we need it a month ago.

I don't disagree with this, however that may be easier said than done. There is a global shortage now in swabs. You can't do the test without a a swab. The swabs are primarily made in the hard hit section of Italy. I'm sure they will ramp up production of them elsewhere, but remember, the growth rate isn't just exponential in the US; the growth rate is exponential in virtually every country on earth. so ten days from now, the world will need ten times as many swabs as it needs today, and a month from now the world might need 1000 times as many swabs as it needs today.

Now, if the test could be done with a Q-Tip, we might be OK for awhile, but apparently it takes some special swab. Maybe Q-Tip can convert production from normal Q-tips to swabs? Maybe Trump will use his war powers to order Q-Tip to makes COVID19 swabs? Maybe we should all go out and hoard Q-Tips because they will become scarce? ;)

Another thing that could be coming in the near future is a requirement than everyone wear masks in public. Why? If everyone is wearing a mask, that means that every infected person is wearing a mask, which in turn means that whenever an infected person coughs or sneezes, their cough or sneeze is contained, and doesn't send water droplets out to infect nearby people.

As for the natural infection rate of SARS-COV2, studies have been all over the place, anywhere between 1.4 and 4.0:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#repro

Last Edited: 3/20/2020 12:06:34 PM by L.C.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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