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Topic: Does Defense Matter?
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L.C.
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Posted: 12/11/2018 5:18 PM
This year the offense was the best yet, but the defense was abysmal early in the year. How important is defense? Here is a list of the average points/game given up by Ohio defenses under Solich, from best to worst, and the team's final ranking in the East:
2006 18.1 - East Champion
2009 21.3 - East Champion (tie, won tiebreaker)
2011 22.1 - East Champion
2016 22.6 - East Champion
2010 23.8 - 2d East
2017 24.2 - 2d East
2014 24.8 - 2d East (tie)
2012 24.8 - 3rd East
2015 25.3 - 2d East (tie)
2018 26.7 - 2d East (tie)
2008 27.2 - 5th East (tie)
2013 27.5 - 3rd East (tie)
2007 29.9 - 4th East (tie)
2005 30.5 - 4th East
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
L.C.
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Posted: 12/11/2018 5:34 PM
Lest someone ask, here is a similar table for offense. There is little if any correlation. Note that 3 of the 4 East Champion teams were in the bottom six for offensive output.
2018 41.2 - 2d East (tie)
2017 39.1 - 2d East
2012 31.7 - 3rd East
2011 30.5 - East Champion
2007 30.5 - 4th East (tie)
2015 27.5 - 2d East (tie)
2010 27.5 - 2d East
2013 27.4 - 3rd East (tie)
2016 26.3 - East Champion
2009 24.8 - East Champion (tie, won tiebreaker)
2008 24.1 - 5th East (tie)
2014 20.5 - 2d East
2006 19.7 - East Champion
2005 17.5 - 4th East
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
Last Edited: 12/11/2018 5:36:09 PM by L.C.
Bcat2
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Posted: 12/11/2018 7:21 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
This year the offense was the best yet, but the defense was abysmal early in the year. How important is defense? Here is a list of the average points/game given up by Ohio defenses under Solich, from best to worst, and the team's final ranking in the East:
2006 18.1 - East Champion
2009 21.3 - East Champion (tie, won tiebreaker)
2011 22.1 - East Champion
2016 22.6 - East Champion
2010 23.8 - 2d East
2017 24.2 - 2d East
2014 24.8 - 2d East (tie)
2012 24.8 - 3rd East
2015 25.3 - 2d East (tie)
2018 26.7 - 2d East (tie)
2008 27.2 - 5th East (tie)
2013 27.5 - 3rd East (tie)
2007 29.9 - 4th East (tie)
2005 30.5 - 4th East
Got it. "Defense Wins Championships." L.C. does your crystal ball show improvement on defense in 2019?
"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK
bshot44
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Posted: 12/11/2018 9:38 PM
Bcat2 wrote:expand_more
This year the offense was the best yet, but the defense was abysmal early in the year. How important is defense? Here is a list of the average points/game given up by Ohio defenses under Solich, from best to worst, and the team's final ranking in the East:
2006 18.1 - East Champion
2009 21.3 - East Champion (tie, won tiebreaker)
2011 22.1 - East Champion
2016 22.6 - East Champion
2010 23.8 - 2d East
2017 24.2 - 2d East
2014 24.8 - 2d East (tie)
2012 24.8 - 3rd East
2015 25.3 - 2d East (tie)
2018 26.7 - 2d East (tie)
2008 27.2 - 5th East (tie)
2013 27.5 - 3rd East (tie)
2007 29.9 - 4th East (tie)
2005 30.5 - 4th East
Got it. "Defense Wins Championships." L.C. does your crystal ball show improvement on defense in 2019?


Got it. "Ohio doesn't win championships."

C'mon! Have a sense of humor! I kid! Have a glass of egg nog and relax :-)
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Posted: 12/11/2018 10:04 PM
bshot44 wrote:expand_more
This year the offense was the best yet, but the defense was abysmal early in the year. How important is defense? Here is a list of the average points/game given up by Ohio defenses under Solich, from best to worst, and the team's final ranking in the East:
2006 18.1 - East Champion
2009 21.3 - East Champion (tie, won tiebreaker)
2011 22.1 - East Champion
2016 22.6 - East Champion
2010 23.8 - 2d East
2017 24.2 - 2d East
2014 24.8 - 2d East (tie)
2012 24.8 - 3rd East
2015 25.3 - 2d East (tie)
2018 26.7 - 2d East (tie)
2008 27.2 - 5th East (tie)
2013 27.5 - 3rd East (tie)
2007 29.9 - 4th East (tie)
2005 30.5 - 4th East
Got it. "Defense Wins Championships." L.C. does your crystal ball show improvement on defense in 2019?


Got it. "Ohio doesn't win championships."

C'mon! Have a sense of humor! I kid! Have a glass of egg nog and relax :-)
Great, a another thread blown up. Guess we can always take to pms.
"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK
GroverBall
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Posted: 12/11/2018 10:04 PM
Despite a classic example of going straight to the usual point, I find these statistical lists very interesting. Does defense win championships of whatever kind in football? What do the numbers say for other leagues? FBS? NFL?
bshot44
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Posted: 12/11/2018 10:14 PM
Bcat2 wrote:expand_more
This year the offense was the best yet, but the defense was abysmal early in the year. How important is defense? Here is a list of the average points/game given up by Ohio defenses under Solich, from best to worst, and the team's final ranking in the East:
2006 18.1 - East Champion
2009 21.3 - East Champion (tie, won tiebreaker)
2011 22.1 - East Champion
2016 22.6 - East Champion
2010 23.8 - 2d East
2017 24.2 - 2d East
2014 24.8 - 2d East (tie)
2012 24.8 - 3rd East
2015 25.3 - 2d East (tie)
2018 26.7 - 2d East (tie)
2008 27.2 - 5th East (tie)
2013 27.5 - 3rd East (tie)
2007 29.9 - 4th East (tie)
2005 30.5 - 4th East
Got it. "Defense Wins Championships." L.C. does your crystal ball show improvement on defense in 2019?


Got it. "Ohio doesn't win championships."

C'mon! Have a sense of humor! I kid! Have a glass of egg nog and relax :-)
Great, a another thread blown up. Guess we can always take to pms.
Nice sense of humor. Bah-humbug Mr. Scrooge
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 12/11/2018 11:41 PM
Two points:

1. bshot44 has shown he has a sense of humor, and it can even a bit self effacing. I like that kind of humor.

2. Defense doesn't win championships in the B12-10. At one point in the season dyslexic OU won four straight league games while allowing the opposition 40 or more points. The previous record, according to some ESPN computers, in the whole history of college football was two consecutive games won when the opposition scored 40 or more points. Dyslexic OU doubled the old record.
The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org
Last Edited: 12/11/2018 11:42:28 PM by OhioCatFan
bshot44
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Posted: 12/12/2018 12:47 AM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
Two points:

1. bshot44 has shown he has a sense of humor, and it can even a bit self effacing. I like that kind of humor.
It's a message board ... the second you start taking this stuff too serious you really need to get some help 🤣🤣🤣

It's all in the name of good fun and the Cats!

Too bad some others don't see it that way🤪🤪🤪
TheBobcatBandit
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Posted: 12/12/2018 2:55 AM
Would be awesome to see 2016 defense with 2017/18 offense. Might need to be elite in both facets to win the MACC.
Brian Smith (No, not that one)
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Posted: 12/12/2018 3:31 PM
I'd be interested to see if turnover margin was more closely aligned with winning.

I think that's the theory of most football coaches and programs, defensive coordinators included right now. The rules don't allow you to be great defensively. So forcing teams to march down the field in small increments before they get inside your own 30 yard line and then aiming to create turnovers with sometimes less than optimal tackling styles that go for strips over wrapping up and more risky blitzing in the red zone seems to be a better strategy. I see that more the case in the NFL than college, but I think it's the best way to go right now.

Even if you're great on defense in 2018, you're giving up 20 points per game and teams can move the ball simply because you can't touch receivers and offensive players and schemes have evolved faster than the other side of the ball.
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 12/12/2018 4:03 PM
Brian Smith wrote:expand_more
. . . Even if you're great on defense in 2018, you're giving up 20 points per game and teams can move the ball simply because you can't touch receivers and offensive players and schemes have evolved faster than the other side of the ball.
Hmm . . . depends on the game. Sometimes the defense can mug the WR and it's "just letting them play the game." In other games, a mere touch of the wide receiver that's more like a hand-check in basketball brings a flag. That has gotten so inconsistent that I tell everyone around me at a game or when watching on the tube that I have no idea what pass interference is anymore.
The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org
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Posted: 12/12/2018 4:51 PM
Only if you lose! Here's to a good game, hopefully it makes most of the viewers happy.
BillyTheCat
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Posted: 12/12/2018 9:42 PM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
. . . Even if you're great on defense in 2018, you're giving up 20 points per game and teams can move the ball simply because you can't touch receivers and offensive players and schemes have evolved faster than the other side of the ball.
Hmm . . . depends on the game. Sometimes the defense can mug the WR and it's "just letting them play the game." In other games, a mere touch of the wide receiver that's more like a hand-check in basketball brings a flag. That has gotten so inconsistent that I tell everyone around me at a game or when watching on the tube that I have no idea what pass interference is anymore.
I bet you are a lot of fun to watch a game with. PI’s are easy, there are 6 categories for DPI and 4 for OPI, if you can make it fit in that category and an advantage was gained, then its a PI. Just because you see hand fighting or contact does not make something a PI.
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 12/12/2018 10:38 PM
BillyTheCat wrote:expand_more
. . . Even if you're great on defense in 2018, you're giving up 20 points per game and teams can move the ball simply because you can't touch receivers and offensive players and schemes have evolved faster than the other side of the ball.
Hmm . . . depends on the game. Sometimes the defense can mug the WR and it's "just letting them play the game." In other games, a mere touch of the wide receiver that's more like a hand-check in basketball brings a flag. That has gotten so inconsistent that I tell everyone around me at a game or when watching on the tube that I have no idea what pass interference is anymore.
I bet you are a lot of fun to watch a game with. PI’s are easy, there are 6 categories for DPI and 4 for OPI, if you can make it fit in that category and an advantage was gained, then its a PI. Just because you see hand fighting or contact does not make something a PI.
So you are saying that those categories are routinely enforced in a consistent manner? I bet a poll of BA posters would find that you were in the minority in that assessment. Yes, I've been known to irritate those around me during games, and you I suppose are a model decorum.
The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org
L.C.
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Posted: 12/13/2018 9:16 AM
How about a third measure? What about the point differential, the average offensive points less the average points given up? It seems obvious that you win more often if you score more points than the foe. Here's the same table, with that data:
2017 +14.9 - 2d East
2018 +14.5 - 2d East (tie)
2011 +8.4 - East Champion
2012 +5.7 - 3rd East
2010 +3.7 - 2d East
2016 +3.7 - East Champion
2009 +3.5 - East Champion (tie, won tiebreaker)
2015 +2.2 - 2d East (tie)
2006 +1.6 - East Champion
2007 +.6 - 4th East (tie)
2013 -0.1 - 3rd East (tie)
2008 -3.1 - 5th East (tie)
2014 -4.3 - 2d East (tie)
2005 -13.0 - 4th East

Interestingly, the flashy teams that we think of as great are at the top on this list, but the gritty, battling teams like 2006, that refused to lose, may end up at the top of the East. That grit, and toughness, is often embodied in the defense, which is why, in my opinion, the top defensive teams are more apt to win the conference than the top offensive teams.

What we need, it seems, is a combination, a flashy team that can destroy weaker foes, but which is also gritty and refuses to lose the close ones. Those are the true great teams, and what Ohio has yet to produce. They had flashy offensive teams in 2011, 2017-8, and gritty, tough defenses in 2006, 2009, and 2016. It appeared that 2012 was the year they had both, but after 19 Season ending injuries, they had neither.

Next year the offense will most likely be down some, but it will still be good. I expect they will score more like 32-34 rather than 39-41. That is still enough to win, depending on the defense. The defense returns almost of the starters, and an even higher percentage of the 2-deep. Will they play with toughness and determination? Will they battle for every inch in the close games, and refuse to lose? Or, will they get passive, and play "prevent (nothing) defense" when they have the lead? That will determine the fate of the 2019 team, in my opinion.
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
AlumDadDad
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Posted: 12/13/2018 10:02 AM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
How about a third measure? What about the point differential, the average offensive points less the average points given up? It seems obvious that you win more often if you score more points than the foe. Here's the same table, with that data:
2017 +14.9 - 2d East
2018 +14.5 - 2d East (tie)
2011 +8.4 - East Champion
2012 +5.7 - 3rd East
2010 +3.7 - 2d East
2016 +3.7 - East Champion
2009 +3.5 - East Champion (tie, won tiebreaker)
2015 +2.2 - 2d East (tie)
2006 +1.6 - East Champion
2007 +.6 - 4th East (tie)
2013 -0.1 - 3rd East (tie)
2008 -3.1 - 5th East (tie)
2014 -4.3 - 2d East (tie)
2005 -13.0 - 4th East

Interestingly, the flashy teams that we think of as great are at the top on this list, but the gritty, battling teams like 2006, that refused to lose, may end up at the top of the East. That grit, and toughness, is often embodied in the defense, which is why, in my opinion, the top defensive teams are more apt to win the conference than the top offensive teams.

What we need, it seems, is a combination, a flashy team that can destroy weaker foes, but which is also gritty and refuses to lose the close ones. Those are the true great teams, and what Ohio has yet to produce. They had flashy offensive teams in 2011, 2017-8, and gritty, tough defenses in 2006, 2009, and 2016. It appeared that 2012 was the year they had both, but after 19 Season ending injuries, they had neither.

Next year the offense will most likely be down some, but it will still be good. I expect they will score more like 32-34 rather than 39-41. That is still enough to win, depending on the defense. The defense returns almost of the starters, and an even higher percentage of the 2-deep. Will they play with toughness and determination? Will they battle for every inch in the close games, and refuse to lose? Or, will they get passive, and play "prevent (nothing) defense" when they have the lead? That will determine the fate of the 2019 team, in my opinion.

Wow, those are some interesting numbers. Your narrative fits right in with this year's team - beat the living daylights out of some teams, give up close games that turned the season (see Cincinnati, NIU, Miami). Good to have you back, by the way.
bshot44
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Posted: 12/13/2018 10:57 AM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
How about a third measure? What about the point differential, the average offensive points less the average points given up? It seems obvious that you win more often if you score more points than the foe. Here's the same table, with that data:
2017 +14.9 - 2d East
2018 +14.5 - 2d East (tie)
2011 +8.4 - East Champion
2012 +5.7 - 3rd East
2010 +3.7 - 2d East
2016 +3.7 - East Champion
2009 +3.5 - East Champion (tie, won tiebreaker)
2015 +2.2 - 2d East (tie)
2006 +1.6 - East Champion
2007 +.6 - 4th East (tie)
2013 -0.1 - 3rd East (tie)
2008 -3.1 - 5th East (tie)
2014 -4.3 - 2d East (tie)
2005 -13.0 - 4th East

Interestingly, the flashy teams that we think of as great are at the top on this list, but the gritty, battling teams like 2006, that refused to lose, may end up at the top of the East. That grit, and toughness, is often embodied in the defense, which is why, in my opinion, the top defensive teams are more apt to win the conference than the top offensive teams.

What we need, it seems, is a combination, a flashy team that can destroy weaker foes, but which is also gritty and refuses to lose the close ones. Those are the true great teams, and what Ohio has yet to produce. They had flashy offensive teams in 2011, 2017-8, and gritty, tough defenses in 2006, 2009, and 2016. It appeared that 2012 was the year they had both, but after 19 Season ending injuries, they had neither.

Next year the offense will most likely be down some, but it will still be good. I expect they will score more like 32-34 rather than 39-41. That is still enough to win, depending on the defense. The defense returns almost of the starters, and an even higher percentage of the 2-deep. Will they play with toughness and determination? Will they battle for every inch in the close games, and refuse to lose? Or, will they get passive, and play "prevent (nothing) defense" when they have the lead? That will determine the fate of the 2019 team, in my opinion.
Fascinating that the 2012, 2017 and 2018 teams might be three of the most talented teams Frank has fielded .... and yet all three stumbled on their way to, not just a MACC, but a MAC East title with late season losses.
BillyTheCat
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Posted: 12/13/2018 11:25 AM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
. . . Even if you're great on defense in 2018, you're giving up 20 points per game and teams can move the ball simply because you can't touch receivers and offensive players and schemes have evolved faster than the other side of the ball.
Hmm . . . depends on the game. Sometimes the defense can mug the WR and it's "just letting them play the game." In other games, a mere touch of the wide receiver that's more like a hand-check in basketball brings a flag. That has gotten so inconsistent that I tell everyone around me at a game or when watching on the tube that I have no idea what pass interference is anymore.
I bet you are a lot of fun to watch a game with. PI’s are easy, there are 6 categories for DPI and 4 for OPI, if you can make it fit in that category and an advantage was gained, then its a PI. Just because you see hand fighting or contact does not make something a PI.
So you are saying that those categories are routinely enforced in a consistent manner? I bet a poll of BA posters would find that you were in the minority in that assessment. Yes, I've been known to irritate those around me during games, and you I suppose are a model decorum.
I am saying that those are the categories that each play must be put into in order to be a penalty for PI. They should be evenly enforced, and the officials on the field are accountable for every single call they make. Is there a miss here and there? sure (glad you are perfect), but remember these officials get one look at a play, and have set angles that are dictated by the action. They also have to judge was there a material effect on the play that effected the outcome. I'm sure it's easy from your recliner or your seats in the Tower Club, but the vantage point and training gives them a bit more credibility when they make the calls, especially when the call is not the obvious mugging.
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Posted: 12/13/2018 11:44 AM
bshot44 wrote:expand_more
How about a third measure? What about the point differential, the average offensive points less the average points given up? It seems obvious that you win more often if you score more points than the foe. Here's the same table, with that data:
2017 +14.9 - 2d East
2018 +14.5 - 2d East (tie)
2011 +8.4 - East Champion
2012 +5.7 - 3rd East
2010 +3.7 - 2d East
2016 +3.7 - East Champion
2009 +3.5 - East Champion (tie, won tiebreaker)
2015 +2.2 - 2d East (tie)
2006 +1.6 - East Champion
2007 +.6 - 4th East (tie)
2013 -0.1 - 3rd East (tie)
2008 -3.1 - 5th East (tie)
2014 -4.3 - 2d East (tie)
2005 -13.0 - 4th East

Interestingly, the flashy teams that we think of as great are at the top on this list, but the gritty, battling teams like 2006, that refused to lose, may end up at the top of the East. That grit, and toughness, is often embodied in the defense, which is why, in my opinion, the top defensive teams are more apt to win the conference than the top offensive teams.

What we need, it seems, is a combination, a flashy team that can destroy weaker foes, but which is also gritty and refuses to lose the close ones. Those are the true great teams, and what Ohio has yet to produce. They had flashy offensive teams in 2011, 2017-8, and gritty, tough defenses in 2006, 2009, and 2016. It appeared that 2012 was the year they had both, but after 19 Season ending injuries, they had neither.

Next year the offense will most likely be down some, but it will still be good. I expect they will score more like 32-34 rather than 39-41. That is still enough to win, depending on the defense. The defense returns almost of the starters, and an even higher percentage of the 2-deep. Will they play with toughness and determination? Will they battle for every inch in the close games, and refuse to lose? Or, will they get passive, and play "prevent (nothing) defense" when they have the lead? That will determine the fate of the 2019 team, in my opinion.
Fascinating that the 2012, 2017 and 2018 teams might be three of the most talented teams Frank has fielded .... and yet all three stumbled on their way to, not just a MACC, but a MAC East title with late season losses.
"Late season losses." L.C. already addressed the 2012 season's 19 season ending injuries and the 2nd half of the 2018 season was 5-1, finishing very strong vs Buffalo and Akron. Now 2017, yeh, that group had some disappointments that were total team efforts. A.J. Ouellette acknowledged that, vs Akron, there were times he just needed to be a little patient and let the blocking develop, but, did not. Vs Buffalo A.J. only two carries and Brown was out. That team was totally different when A.J. or Brown were 100% healthy, see the bowl win. JMHO.
"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK
Last Edited: 12/13/2018 11:46:09 AM by Bcat2
bshot44
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Posted: 12/13/2018 1:55 PM
Bcat2 wrote:expand_more
How about a third measure? What about the point differential, the average offensive points less the average points given up? It seems obvious that you win more often if you score more points than the foe. Here's the same table, with that data:
2017 +14.9 - 2d East
2018 +14.5 - 2d East (tie)
2011 +8.4 - East Champion
2012 +5.7 - 3rd East
2010 +3.7 - 2d East
2016 +3.7 - East Champion
2009 +3.5 - East Champion (tie, won tiebreaker)
2015 +2.2 - 2d East (tie)
2006 +1.6 - East Champion
2007 +.6 - 4th East (tie)
2013 -0.1 - 3rd East (tie)
2008 -3.1 - 5th East (tie)
2014 -4.3 - 2d East (tie)
2005 -13.0 - 4th East

Interestingly, the flashy teams that we think of as great are at the top on this list, but the gritty, battling teams like 2006, that refused to lose, may end up at the top of the East. That grit, and toughness, is often embodied in the defense, which is why, in my opinion, the top defensive teams are more apt to win the conference than the top offensive teams.

What we need, it seems, is a combination, a flashy team that can destroy weaker foes, but which is also gritty and refuses to lose the close ones. Those are the true great teams, and what Ohio has yet to produce. They had flashy offensive teams in 2011, 2017-8, and gritty, tough defenses in 2006, 2009, and 2016. It appeared that 2012 was the year they had both, but after 19 Season ending injuries, they had neither.

Next year the offense will most likely be down some, but it will still be good. I expect they will score more like 32-34 rather than 39-41. That is still enough to win, depending on the defense. The defense returns almost of the starters, and an even higher percentage of the 2-deep. Will they play with toughness and determination? Will they battle for every inch in the close games, and refuse to lose? Or, will they get passive, and play "prevent (nothing) defense" when they have the lead? That will determine the fate of the 2019 team, in my opinion.
Fascinating that the 2012, 2017 and 2018 teams might be three of the most talented teams Frank has fielded .... and yet all three stumbled on their way to, not just a MACC, but a MAC East title with late season losses.
"Late season losses." L.C. already addressed the 2012 season's 19 season ending injuries and the 2nd half of the 2018 season was 5-1, finishing very strong vs Buffalo and Akron. Now 2017, yeh, that group had some disappointments that were total team efforts. A.J. Ouellette acknowledged that, vs Akron, there were times he just needed to be a little patient and let the blocking develop, but, did not. Vs Buffalo A.J. only two carries and Brown was out. That team was totally different when A.J. or Brown were 100% healthy, see the bowl win. JMHO.
So you are just erasing the Miami loss this year? That doesn't count as a late-season loss that cost Ohio the MAC East title?

Injuries aside in 2012, did Ohio not suffer three straight losses to end the regular season to not win the MAC East? And they apparently were able to overcome 19 season-ending injuries to win a bowl game 45-14, right?

Good try attempting to twist my words around.

What I wrote had no secret, double-meaning. Ohio had incredibly talented teams in 2012, 2017 and 2018 that all lost games in November that cost them MAC East titles. That's all I was saying. The losses are fact. Can't dispute. The "incredibly talented" part is opinion ... but I'm guessing it won't be disputed too hard?
Bcat2
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Posted: 12/13/2018 3:45 PM
bshot44 wrote:expand_more
How about a third measure? What about the point differential, the average offensive points less the average points given up? It seems obvious that you win more often if you score more points than the foe. Here's the same table, with that data:
2017 +14.9 - 2d East
2018 +14.5 - 2d East (tie)
2011 +8.4 - East Champion
2012 +5.7 - 3rd East
2010 +3.7 - 2d East
2016 +3.7 - East Champion
2009 +3.5 - East Champion (tie, won tiebreaker)
2015 +2.2 - 2d East (tie)
2006 +1.6 - East Champion
2007 +.6 - 4th East (tie)
2013 -0.1 - 3rd East (tie)
2008 -3.1 - 5th East (tie)
2014 -4.3 - 2d East (tie)
2005 -13.0 - 4th East

Interestingly, the flashy teams that we think of as great are at the top on this list, but the gritty, battling teams like 2006, that refused to lose, may end up at the top of the East. That grit, and toughness, is often embodied in the defense, which is why, in my opinion, the top defensive teams are more apt to win the conference than the top offensive teams.

What we need, it seems, is a combination, a flashy team that can destroy weaker foes, but which is also gritty and refuses to lose the close ones. Those are the true great teams, and what Ohio has yet to produce. They had flashy offensive teams in 2011, 2017-8, and gritty, tough defenses in 2006, 2009, and 2016. It appeared that 2012 was the year they had both, but after 19 Season ending injuries, they had neither.

Next year the offense will most likely be down some, but it will still be good. I expect they will score more like 32-34 rather than 39-41. That is still enough to win, depending on the defense. The defense returns almost of the starters, and an even higher percentage of the 2-deep. Will they play with toughness and determination? Will they battle for every inch in the close games, and refuse to lose? Or, will they get passive, and play "prevent (nothing) defense" when they have the lead? That will determine the fate of the 2019 team, in my opinion.
Fascinating that the 2012, 2017 and 2018 teams might be three of the most talented teams Frank has fielded .... and yet all three stumbled on their way to, not just a MACC, but a MAC East title with late season losses.
"Late season losses." L.C. already addressed the 2012 season's 19 season ending injuries and the 2nd half of the 2018 season was 5-1, finishing very strong vs Buffalo and Akron. Now 2017, yeh, that group had some disappointments that were total team efforts. A.J. Ouellette acknowledged that, vs Akron, there were times he just needed to be a little patient and let the blocking develop, but, did not. Vs Buffalo A.J. only two carries and Brown was out. That team was totally different when A.J. or Brown were 100% healthy, see the bowl win. JMHO.
So you are just erasing the Miami loss this year? That doesn't count as a late-season loss that cost Ohio the MAC East title?

Injuries aside in 2012, did Ohio not suffer three straight losses to end the regular season to not win the MAC East? And they apparently were able to overcome 19 season-ending injuries to win a bowl game 45-14, right?

Good try attempting to twist my words around.

What I wrote had no secret, double-meaning. Ohio had incredibly talented teams in 2012, 2017 and 2018 that all lost games in November that cost them MAC East titles. That's all I was saying. The losses are fact. Can't dispute. The "incredibly talented" part is opinion ... but I'm guessing it won't be disputed too hard?
I get it. You have a problem with any loss Ohio takes. Ohio loses, you start the blame game. Seems to be your favorite pastime. Yes, the Miami loss was late season and it resulted in Ohio not winning the Division. However, having watched the game, before getting into blaming Ohio I will first credit Miami's Ragland, Smith & Young who matched Ohio's Rourke, Ouellette & White who put up 364 yards to Miami's 357. It was a good game, credit to Miami. Both teams should have left the field heads held high. Since the MACC game vs WMU Ohio is 17-10. Honestly, in those 10 losses we will disagree about Ohio blame vs opponent credit. I do not expect to ever see you credit an opponent. So be it.
"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK
L.C.
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Posted: 12/13/2018 5:29 PM
bshot44 wrote:expand_more
So you are just erasing the Miami loss this year? That doesn't count as a late-season loss that cost Ohio the MAC East title?

Injuries aside in 2012, did Ohio not suffer three straight losses to end the regular season to not win the MAC East? And they apparently were able to overcome 19 season-ending injuries to win a bowl game 45-14, right?
...

In my mind the loss that cost Ohio the East Championship was the NIU loss. That was a game they should have won. Miami was a game where they had to overcome both a good foe and a bad schedule, and just just didn't quite get it done.

The problems in 2012 began a lot earlier than "end of season". Ohio fought through the injuries against Penn State, New Mexico State, and Marshall, but after only three games the wheels were already off. Yes, Ohio managed to barely beat awful U.Mass, Buffalo, and Akron teams, but only just barely. Yes Ohio lost the last 3 games, but they also lost 4 of the last 5, and could easily have lost 7 of the last 8 games of 2012, and I don't consider that a "late season collapse".

By the bowl game, several players were able to return, and that helped tremendously. I don't remember exactly which players were able to play in the bowl after missing much of the season, but I believe they included Tremayne Scott, Carl Jones, Neal Huynh, and Ryan McGrath.
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
bshot44
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Member Since: 2/12/2012
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Posted: 12/14/2018 1:10 AM
Bcat2 wrote:expand_more
How about a third measure? What about the point differential, the average offensive points less the average points given up? It seems obvious that you win more often if you score more points than the foe. Here's the same table, with that data:
2017 +14.9 - 2d East
2018 +14.5 - 2d East (tie)
2011 +8.4 - East Champion
2012 +5.7 - 3rd East
2010 +3.7 - 2d East
2016 +3.7 - East Champion
2009 +3.5 - East Champion (tie, won tiebreaker)
2015 +2.2 - 2d East (tie)
2006 +1.6 - East Champion
2007 +.6 - 4th East (tie)
2013 -0.1 - 3rd East (tie)
2008 -3.1 - 5th East (tie)
2014 -4.3 - 2d East (tie)
2005 -13.0 - 4th East

Interestingly, the flashy teams that we think of as great are at the top on this list, but the gritty, battling teams like 2006, that refused to lose, may end up at the top of the East. That grit, and toughness, is often embodied in the defense, which is why, in my opinion, the top defensive teams are more apt to win the conference than the top offensive teams.

What we need, it seems, is a combination, a flashy team that can destroy weaker foes, but which is also gritty and refuses to lose the close ones. Those are the true great teams, and what Ohio has yet to produce. They had flashy offensive teams in 2011, 2017-8, and gritty, tough defenses in 2006, 2009, and 2016. It appeared that 2012 was the year they had both, but after 19 Season ending injuries, they had neither.

Next year the offense will most likely be down some, but it will still be good. I expect they will score more like 32-34 rather than 39-41. That is still enough to win, depending on the defense. The defense returns almost of the starters, and an even higher percentage of the 2-deep. Will they play with toughness and determination? Will they battle for every inch in the close games, and refuse to lose? Or, will they get passive, and play "prevent (nothing) defense" when they have the lead? That will determine the fate of the 2019 team, in my opinion.
Fascinating that the 2012, 2017 and 2018 teams might be three of the most talented teams Frank has fielded .... and yet all three stumbled on their way to, not just a MACC, but a MAC East title with late season losses.
"Late season losses." L.C. already addressed the 2012 season's 19 season ending injuries and the 2nd half of the 2018 season was 5-1, finishing very strong vs Buffalo and Akron. Now 2017, yeh, that group had some disappointments that were total team efforts. A.J. Ouellette acknowledged that, vs Akron, there were times he just needed to be a little patient and let the blocking develop, but, did not. Vs Buffalo A.J. only two carries and Brown was out. That team was totally different when A.J. or Brown were 100% healthy, see the bowl win. JMHO.
So you are just erasing the Miami loss this year? That doesn't count as a late-season loss that cost Ohio the MAC East title?

Injuries aside in 2012, did Ohio not suffer three straight losses to end the regular season to not win the MAC East? And they apparently were able to overcome 19 season-ending injuries to win a bowl game 45-14, right?

Good try attempting to twist my words around.

What I wrote had no secret, double-meaning. Ohio had incredibly talented teams in 2012, 2017 and 2018 that all lost games in November that cost them MAC East titles. That's all I was saying. The losses are fact. Can't dispute. The "incredibly talented" part is opinion ... but I'm guessing it won't be disputed too hard?
I get it. You have a problem with any loss Ohio takes. Ohio loses, you start the blame game. Seems to be your favorite pastime. Yes, the Miami loss was late season and it resulted in Ohio not winning the Division. However, having watched the game, before getting into blaming Ohio I will first credit Miami's Ragland, Smith & Young who matched Ohio's Rourke, Ouellette & White who put up 364 yards to Miami's 357. It was a good game, credit to Miami. Both teams should have left the field heads held high. Since the MACC game vs WMU Ohio is 17-10. Honestly, in those 10 losses we will disagree about Ohio blame vs opponent credit. I do not expect to ever see you credit an opponent. So be it.
Break out the participation trophies!!!

Everyone should exit the field with their heads held high.

Credit your opponent!

This nonsense just makes me laugh.

No one is discrediting Miami ... or NIU ... or Akron ... or Buffalo .... or Texas State ... or anyone else Ohio lost too over the years.

But you NEVER acknowledge that Ohio may not have held up their end. It's ALWAYS credit the opponent ... blah, blah, blah.

You probably think Hillary should credit Trump for his hard-fought win? Both should hold their heads high.

Same goes for Georgetown in 1982. Freddy Brown didn't make a bad pass .... UNC simply was an outstanding opponent. They deserve the credit.

Sometimes teams lay an egg. It happens. And saying it doesn't curse you and set you up to be struck by lightning. Nor does it make you less of a fan

I promise ... Rufus will still hug you if you say Ohio blew that game at UC or NIU.

But no ... those were just worthy advisories that deserve all the credit and both should be praised.

And here's something ... of those 9 losses, (your math was wrong ... bowl loss + (9-4) + (8-4)) how many do I "blame" Ohio for, as you like to say ... hmmm ... let's see.

2018
UC ... yep. Ohio gave that away
NIU ... yep. Ohio blows 14pt 4Q lead
Miami ... see LCs comments above. Was a game Ohio could've won, but they had a lot working against them including bad in-game adjustments
UVA ... they smoked Ohio. Period. Was not a pretty game

2017
UB .... yup. Ohio was better than a 5-6 UB team. Just a poor performance
Akron ... yup. No explanation necessary
Purdue ... see UVa
CMU ... yup. That was a dud on homecoming.

So yeah ... I'd say of those, five of them are games Ohio should've won.

I've never said Ohio should go 14-0 every year. But there are certainly games they should win ... and probably won't win.

But why would you care. It's all about the fine young men competing and leaving the field, heads held high after a fine competition.
OhioCatFan
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Location: Athens, OH
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Posted: 12/14/2018 1:43 AM
bshot44, I won't comment on all of these, but I was at the UC game and OHIO did, indeed, blow it. Frank actually admitted that after the game. He said that the play calling with 1st and goal with the ball on the 1 foot line was horrible. He said he took total blame. He said the OC made the call, but he has the option to over-ride the call and he didn't do that, and he should have done it. If the HC says that loss was on him, and he gives specifics like this, I'm not going to give the credit to the opponent. I do agree with bcat2 that there are many times when we as fans don't give enough credit to the opponent. I would cite the Miami game as an example of this type of game, when it wasn't so much that OHIO lost the game, but that Miami played a really good game, had OHIO well scouted, and executed a well-thought-out game plan. So, I see merit in both what you say and what bcat2 says, in certain given circumstances.
The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org
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