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Topic: A quick look forward to 2019
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L.C.
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Posted: 1/3/2019 6:38 PM
I took a look at some of the data regarding who is returning, and who is leaving for various MAC teams, and came up with this forecast:

Teams that will be significantly improved:
Kent St - returns 17 starters
Ball State - returns 19 starters

Teams that will be slightly improved:
Bowling Green - returns 13 starters, but new coach has to be better
Ohio - returns 11 starters, including best QB coming back

Teams that will be about the same:
EMU - returns 10.5 starters
Miami - returns 12 starters
CMU - returns 17 starters, but new coach

Teams that will be slightly worse:
Toledo - returns 12
NIU - returns 13
WMU - returns 15, but no QB, and loses a couple very good players

Teams that will be significantly worse:
Buffalo - returns 9
Akron - returns 9.5, plus new coach

In general, I see increased parity, with most of the top teams in the MAC sliding a little, and most of the bad teams getting better. The exceptions I see are Ohio improving slightly on better defensive play, and Akron sliding significantly to the very bottom.
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
BryanHall
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Posted: 1/3/2019 8:21 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
I took a look at some of the data regarding who is returning, and who is leaving for various MAC teams, and came up with this forecast:

Teams that will be significantly improved:
Kent St - returns 17 starters
Ball State - returns 19 starters

Teams that will be slightly improved:
Bowling Green - returns 13 starters, but new coach has to be better
Ohio - returns 11 starters, including best QB coming back

Teams that will be about the same:
EMU - returns 10.5 starters
Miami - returns 12 starters
CMU - returns 17 starters, but new coach

Teams that will be slightly worse:
Toledo - returns 12
NIU - returns 13
WMU - returns 15, but no QB, and loses a couple very good players

Teams that will be significantly worse:
Buffalo - returns 9
Akron - returns 9.5, plus new coach

In general, I see increased parity, with most of the top teams in the MAC sliding a little, and most of the bad teams getting better. The exceptions I see are Ohio improving slightly on better defensive play, and Akron sliding significantly to the very bottom.
Does the Ball State returnees include the expected grad transfers?
L.C.
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Posted: 1/3/2019 10:37 PM
BryanHall wrote:expand_more
Does the Ball State returnees include the expected grad transfers?

I used this depth chart:
https://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/depth-...

It shows 2 Senior starters, one on offense, one on defense, or 20 returning starters. Since I knew that Plitt wasn't the real starter at QB, I deducted him, and arrived at 19. If there were others that left as graduate transfers, they should be adjusted for as well.

Edit - Apparently Gilbert left in addition to Riley Neal, so cut them to 18 returning starters. 18 is still quite a lot, so even though some of their best players left, they should still improve.
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
Last Edited: 1/3/2019 10:44:36 PM by L.C.
Pataskala
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Posted: 1/4/2019 11:34 AM
I'm never sure that returning a bunch of starters from a 2-10 or 3-9 team will necessarily translate into improvement. These are the same guys who were on the field when their team was getting outscored by 10-15 pts a game. They'll be more experienced but how much improvement the team will show depends on a lot of other factors, such as coaching, off-season commitment (which has really helped Ohio over the years), recruiting, etc.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

L.C.
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Posted: 1/4/2019 1:32 PM
Pataskala wrote:expand_more
I'm never sure that returning a bunch of starters from a 2-10 or 3-9 team will necessarily translate into improvement. These are the same guys who were on the field when their team was getting outscored by 10-15 pts a game. They'll be more experienced but how much improvement the team will show depends on a lot of other factors, such as coaching, off-season commitment (which has really helped Ohio over the years), recruiting, etc.

I'm not saying that it will turn Ball State into a conference contender, just that they will be improved. The best evidence that it will improve even bad teams comes from a bizarre coaching decision in 1981 by Jim Dickey, at Kansas State. After seasons of 4-7, 3-8, and 3-8, he decided to try something radical. He reshirted most of his starters in 1981, with the result that he went 2-9. However, the next year he had something like 35 returning starters, some returning from the 3-8 1980 team, some from the 2-9 1981 team. The result was a 6-5-1 team that went to the Independence Bowl.

It didn't change the nature of the athletes he had, though, so in 1983, when his count of returning starters went back to a typical level, his results did as well, and he was back to 3-8, then 3-7-1, and started the next year 0-2. The fact that that lone winning season was the year with all the returning starters is pretty clear evidence that it does help even bad teams.
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
Last Edited: 1/4/2019 1:42:20 PM by L.C.
bobcatsquared
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Posted: 1/4/2019 3:23 PM
Pataskala wrote:expand_more
I'm never sure that returning a bunch of starters from a 2-10 or 3-9 team will necessarily translate into improvement.
Conversely, programs like the ones at UT and NIU might be losing a good number of starters but are likely replacing them with quality backup players or newcomers. Therefore, talk of their demise might be slightly (greatly) exaggerated.
cc-cat
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Posted: 1/4/2019 9:26 PM
Looks lie OSU has 13 coming back on offense and defense - where does that place them?
Doc Bobcat
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Posted: 1/4/2019 9:32 PM
cc-cat wrote:expand_more
Looks lie OSU has 13 coming back on offense and defense - where does that place them?
Looks like you’re trying to hijack BA.
Bobcat1996
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Posted: 1/4/2019 9:34 PM
CC- head to the Buckeye website to find information on them. This is a Bobcat website! I am thinking that Ohio will improve some on the defensive side of the ball as many players gained experience and the Bobcats improved some the last half of the season on defense.
cc-cat
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Posted: 1/4/2019 9:35 PM
No - just want to have a category that is for the OSU, etc. topics
Buck.Cat
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Posted: 1/5/2019 1:24 PM
This is probably one of the more loose interpretations of the term "data" that I have seen but I would not expect anything less from the author.
L.C.
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Posted: 1/5/2019 4:03 PM
Right now, all that is available is pure "returning starters" numbers. Towards the end of January last year, Bill Connelly released some numbers using his advanced stats, which he called "returning production".
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/1/31/16950...

I found those numbers to be a better predictor of performance than the raw "returning starters" numbers. By using returning production, he accounts for how productive the people are who are returning. I was impressed with his work, and look forward to his release of similar data this year.
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
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