Doing some rough math, let's figure:
A. A "money game" on the road produces $1m. Chance of winning = 10%
B. A home and home gives produces no payment, but Ohio gets to keep the home gate receipts when they play at home, or about $200k, which would divided over 2 games, so $100k/game. Chance of winning = 50%.
C. FCS game is always at home. They get the $200k gate receipts, but have to pay the other team $400k, so a $200k loss.
Using those numbers, here are some options:
1. Current system: Two home-home, one money game, one fcs game.
Home games=1/2*2+0+1=2, plus 4 conference games, so 6 home games/year
Money: $100k*2+$1m-$200k=$1m/year
Wins: .5*2+.1+.9=2 OOC wins/year
2. Drop the FCS game, replace it with another home and home.
Home games=1/2*3+0=1.5, or 5.5 home games a year (alternating 5 and 6 game schedules.
Money: $100k*3+$1m=$1.3m per year.
Wins: .5*3+.1= 1.6 OOC Wins/year
3. Keep the FCS game, drop one home and home and have 2 money games.
Home games=.5*1+0*2+1=1.5, or 5.5 home games (alternate 5 and 6)
Money: $100k+2*$1m$-200k=$1.9m per year
Wins: .5+2*.1+.9=1.6 OOC wins/year
4. 2 home and home, and 2 money games
Home games=.5*2+0*2=1 or 5 home games per year
Money: $100k+2*$1m$=$2.2m per year
Wins: .5*2+2*.1=1.2 OOC wins/year
5. FCS game and 3 money games, no home and home series
Home games=1+3*0=1, so 5 home games/year
Money: 3*$1m-$200k=$2.8m per year
Wins: .1*3+1=1.3 OOC wins/year
If you don't like my assumptions, feel free to substitute your own, but where I end up is this:
I. If you want 6 homes games, you have only choice 1, with the FCS game, and a couple other (usually G5) foes.
II. For 5.5 games, you can choose between 2 and 3. Both produce about the same number of wins and home games, but option 3 produces significantly more money, so that's the one that is the logical choice.
III. If you are forced down to 5 homes games a year, Options 4 and 5 produce similar win totals, but option 5 produces more money, so it's the logical choice.
so... it would seem to me that where you end up is with an FCS game, and however many money games you need in order to produce the revenue you need. Any other games would be home and home with other G5 teams. If the home gate receipts were much higher (say 35,000 people at $30 each, or $1m), then the need for money games goes away, and the home and home series become much more attractive, but that isn't going to happen.
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus